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Awesome picture.

What's up with these little renegade storms?  Last night's went forever and tonight's has performed well also.  

Not sure if anyone heard another station today comment that since the heavy rain is staying to the north over the next day or two, we will get the chance to dry out and allow streams to get back in their banks.  Where does he think the water goes after it falls in Nebraska and Iowa?!  Amazing comment from a long time meteorologist at Gary's former home.

Everyone had to love today!!!!!!  Thanks for the special order Gary!

darn missed the news, was cleaning the bathroom lost track of time. what is interesting/confusing about the new data??

Just to be fair and neutral, I think the other blog was more so talking about south of KC.

Amazing picture tonight.  I didn't see anything that nice driving home last night.

-Brian

those storms look like they are holding..what do you all think?

looks like a mess to me.. guess it's a welcome home present.  

meh, maybe some rain....IF that. BUT I know if it does rain, I have my windows open and I'll sleep like a baby when it gets here!

Just checking radar before going to bed and wondering if I should close the windows.  I'd hate to be awakened like we were last month one night by surprise overnight thunderstorms.  

To close or not to close - that is the question.  Good night everyone.  Fingers crossed these cells die out.

Yeah, I see those.  I'm going outside and put some things up just in case.   Gary's rule, go outside and look up... or my version - look up the radar loop before going to sleep.

my windows will stay closed tonight even if it doesn't rain.  a skunk just got in a fight with something and was screaming and spraying a few hundred yards upwind.  Whoa, I can still smell it on me it and I wasn't even close to the action.

Sounds like its stock tank n pallet of tomato juice time  LOL

lol, we shut the windows, and trapped the smell inside the house we figured out.  It's not that bad outside anymore, so we have aired out the house.  Dogs are going nuts still.  That lightning is getting closer.  Radar isn't weakening either.  I have heard of peroxide and tomato juice baths before.

Here comes the rain and thunderstorms!

Good Morning Everybody!

Here is the latest from the SPC for tomorrow.  This does not look like a tornado outbreak like there will be later today in Nebraska.  Right now we look to be in the middle of things in the way of severe weather.  Here is the statement from the Storm Prediction Center...

SPC AC 110539
 
  DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1239 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2008
 
  VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF KS/OK...
 
...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND DEEP UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER FROM FAR NWRN ND INTO EXTREME SERN
MANITOBA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES EWD INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD STRETCH FROM WI SWWD ACROSS NRN
MO AND INTO NRN OK/TX PANHANDLE BY LATE THU AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THIS FRONT.
 
...WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...
WED NIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY SHOULD SHIFT
EWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN IA/SERN MN/WRN WI EARLY IN THE PERIOD...
ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THOUGH SOME MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING WITH THESE STORMS... MAIN
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED EWD
OR STORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARY/FRONT...BUT IN
EITHER CASE...STORMS SHOULD REINTENSIFY OR DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON
FROM WI SWWD INTO NRN MO. WARMING OF DEEP AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL YIELD MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KT
ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM LINES/BOWS TO EVOLVE. THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN HAIL...THOUGH THE EXPECTED LINEAR NATURE OF THE CONVECTION
ALONG WITH RAPID ENEWD MOTION... GIVEN 60-70 KT MID LEVEL
WINDS...POINTS TO WIND DAMAGE BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ASSUMING THE
MORNING CONVECTION DOES NOT INHIBIT SURFACE DESTABILIZATION...
PORTIONS OF ERN WI/NRN IL AND SERN IA COULD BE UPGRADED TO A
MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
 
...SRN/ERN KS...NRN OK AND SWRN MO...
STRONG CAP IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS
AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE 90S...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS... MLCAPES
SHOULD RANGE FROM 2500-3500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE CAP IS
LIKELY TO BE BROKEN BY STRONG HEATING/CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT ALONG
WITH UVV LOCATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET...LOCATED
OVER MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP... VEERING WIND
PROFILES IN THE LOWER 3 KM AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS. THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE...THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR AND 20-25F
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS...WITH SEVERE
HAIL...MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN KS AS
LLJ STRENGTHENS AND RESULTS IN STRONG WAA NORTH OF COLD FRONT.
 
...MN...
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30-40 KT COMBINED
WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

You can go to www.spc.noaa.gov for the latest outlooks.

Jacob
 

Just want to say good morning to the people on right now!

Jacob

We got some quick rain and a few rumbles of thunder when these T'Showers moved through.  Just enough to wet the pavement.

Jacob

light thundershower in st jo. more to the southwest. very windy, really only sprinkles so far. good dog walking weather.

Gary:

Good cloudy/sprinkle morning to you sir!! Yes, indeed, I have crawled out from my summer hibernation rock once again to type some more random observations!!! LOL Or in reality, I am just in town from the lake for a brief spell!! Looking at Nexrad, we have a few showers spotting the landscape and may pick up one decent 10 minuet spell of rain here this morning.

Per my usual mantra, a few random observations this morning that as always, I hope they make some sense!!!

1. You can really see the front this morning out in Western Kansas on the surface charts with the fairly potent surface low in South Dakota. The front is there and moving so will as always be fascinating to follow and see how it progresses in the next 24 hours and how much it can hold together.


2. Looking at the models: the NAM has the bulk of the rain just North of us and the GFS has the bulk just South of us-do you just split the difference and give us the bulls eye??? LOL. This will be tough for the models to get exactly right-one thing I think for certain is that there will be decent rain fall somewhere from say Atchison, Kansas to Pittsburg, Kansas and maybe even some fairly heavy amounts.


3. Based on the last 24-36 hours, while for sure the heaviest part of these thunderstorms has been north and east of a line from Lawrence to KCI, we have had development with just a small mechanism. With having some of these develop west of Lawrence this morning, I wonder if when we have a better lifting mechanisim-weakening/meandering front and surface low, if we will not see some of the heavier amounts in this area. I think that the NAM may be more onto the solution based on where we have seen development the past 36 hours.


4. Of course, with number 3 in mind, one thing I have thought about often is that ever since October, these fronts have cleared Lawrence-the NAM seems to hang the front up say around Ottawa where the GFS dives it down to about Fort Scott-climotology would indicate it should not get that far south as the GFS has progged, but this year’s weather I think, says it very well could. To me, very complicated weather over the next 48 hours-of course, when is it not complicated accept when the SW summer high decided to sit over Oklahoma in the summer!!!!


5. One quick thought about the summer: I really do think that between now and mid August we will have some fronts clear the area. For sure, the High will form in the SW and even sit over us for a spell-it did in January and November and it is summer!!! However, one thing about this LRC: The fronts have packed a punch and the models several times under did them-even in November. I just think we will have some relief at times this July and early August. About mid August, we arrive in no mans land as the deck begins to reshuffle!!


Well, one thing has not changed: I babble on way too much!! Will be fun to see where the rain does indeed set up over the next 18 hours or so-I just have a feeling that we are going to get very decent if not overly decent rain fall in this period based on where the development has been the past few days. But again, does the front get all the way south as on the GFS??? Have a great day and as always, thanks for reading!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

HillsdaleBruce - Thanks for a good laugh this morning! ;)