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KCI  4.65"    

Lets go for 2.34 inches at KCI.

KCI, 0.82 inches.

lets go with 1.40 inches at KCI

I say 1.75 inches at KcI

how about 1.85 at KCI

Gary- I am betting on an MCS tonight coming from the KS and NE storms today as well as the cold front being able to fire some storms along the front- will the CF be south of us though???- I do not think so---so I am thinking 2 rounds of precip- overnight tonight as well as tomorrow afternoon..

My forecast is for 1.4" by Friday AM...

I would say 2.75" for La Cygne, KS with most of it occuring Thursday evening.

Jeez where are we getting all these high totals?  KCI has gotten missed all LRC long.  Thursday/Friday won't be an exception.  I vote for .75".  Heavier to the south, but officially, KCI is what matters.

Tim in Shawnee

Tim in West Shawnee, those were my thoughts as well when I espoused a 0.82" total for KCI.  KCI has been missing the big rain events all spring, why should this be any different?  The heavy storms have passed to the north of KCI in the early
AM hours, perhaps with a weakening band moving through there, then the heavy stuff refires the next afternoon to the south of KCI.

about 1.80" at KCI
2.20" In Olathe

1.3" at KCI, 2.2" for Gardner, KS.

http://www.zazzle.com/lrc_shirt-235010432022908057

Professor Lezak,

Record rainfall for June 12th is just over 3 inches, in 1966. I will go with a new record (as wierd as the weather has been the last 6 months, is there any reason to think its gonna change anytime soon?) of 3.25"

my guess is 2.1 at KCI

yes KCI has been on the low end but we are talking tonight thru Friday at noon

tommorrow should be a rainy day

i am going with 1.45 at kci

.9 at KCI!

spc has a mesoscale discusion currently for some in the area

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1326.html

.68 at KCI

I'm not smart enough or knowlegable enough to make that kind of forecast.

1.24 at KCI

for KCI 1.30   for people metro south  3.00 plus as usual

My best guestimate is 1.55 inches.

I am going with 1.30 inches at KCI

On Sunday I guessed 2.5 inches for Marceline, and we ended up with 2.6 inches, so I am going to go with a total of 1.9 inches for Marceline, MO.

Alex

.0000002 at kci....5.67 everywhere else

Looking at the SPC (probabilistic) for tomorrow, I'd guess 1.3" by Friday. I know that's not alot but am guessing we'll get more wind and hail than rain. I'm just guessing here. I have absolutely no idea.

Let me change that to 1.2" for KCI and whatever I previously said for Joplin.

My guess for the Northland is 2.85"

I live up by KCI... so what you're all saying is I should get my mowing done right after work today? :)

Gary,
This time the tables may be turned. North of I-70 (kci) 2.90 south of 70 OP. 1.60

-Rodney

Think there will be 3.2" here in Raytown Gary


Laura

1.7" at my house near the I29/I35 split in the northland.  Just got a rain gage so I will let you know if I am right.

/grin... As Scott always harps on, what location are you using to verify the rainfall amounts?  At my house in northeast KCMO in the, self proclaimed, light rain zone, I'm going for .73 of an inch.  South of I-70 at any location you choose, 2.88 inches.

Good Afternoon Everybody!

A tornado outbreak is likely over parts of Nebraska and Kansas later today.  The question is whether or not this set up will continue into tomorrow for us here in Kansas City?  Based on the latest information from the Storm Prediction Center, it is something we must watch closely.  They have expanded the slight risk and Kansas City is right in the middle of that risk.  We are currently in a 30% general risk of severe storms.  This will be broken down tomorrow so we can see what exactly our main threats are.  The soundings from the forecast from the SPC have changed some from the midnight forecast.  They seem a little more concerned about how intense the severe threat will be tomorrow.  I have a feeling that they will upgrade parts of the slight risk area to a moderate risk in later outlooks.  My feeling is that that risk upgrade will include or be close to us here in KC.  We will see how it plays out as we head through the rest of the day.  Below I have posted the latest from the SPC and what they are thinking for tomorrow.  Take a look.

Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 111702
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008
 
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES...MID MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS...
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN ND AND WRN MN...
 
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO OCCLUSION WHILE
MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER FROM FAR NWRN ND
INTO EXTREME SRN MANITOBA ON THU. BY AFTERNOON...THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW...OVER NRN ND/U.S. BORDER AREA...SEWD TO WI THEN SWWD ACROSS ERN
IA TO MO AND SRN KS. GREATEST PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE NRN SEGMENT OF THE
FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN EWD PROGRESSION OF MODEST MEAN-LAYER
WLY FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION. THE TRAILING SRN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS KS/OK AREA...POSSIBLY
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THESE AREAS.
 
BROAD SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN
STATES WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SKIRTING THE SRN FLANK OF THE
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN GULF. WEAK INHIBITION AND STRONG
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SCATTERED PULSE STORMS
ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
EVENTS.
 
...WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EWD INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE REGIME FROM WRN U.P. OF MI SWD ACROSS
WI/ERN IA/NRN IL AND MO. WHILE MARGINAL SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH MORNING STORMS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL/WIND IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS LIFT WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT SUSTAINS DEEP CONVECTION... AND
GREATER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.
 
EXPECT NUMEROUS ORGANIZED STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN SBCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR 30-50KT. A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE BUT PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE LINEAR
GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING
FRONT. AN ENHANCED WIND/TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS NRN IL/SERN
WI DURING THE AFTERNOON IF STRONG DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF
ACCELERATING CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS.
 
...MO TO KS/OK...
STRONG CAP AND WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROBABLY
LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 90S F IN
SRN AREAS...85-90 F FARTHER NORTH...COUPLED WITH HIGH THETA-E AIR
MASS...WILL YIELD SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG.
 
STRONG HEATING/MIXING NEAR THE FRONT AND SOME BACKGROUND ASCENT
WITHIN/BENEATH JET ENTRANCE REGION WILL AID IN OVERCOMING INHIBITION
AND PROMOTE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM MO SWWD TO NERN OK/SERN KS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER 3KM AND
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
ALSO EXIST WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT... ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS ABLE TO
TRACK PREFERENTIALLY NEAR/ALONG STALLING FRONTAL ZONE NEAR KS/OK
BORDER WHERE LFC WILL BE LOWER AND STORMSCALE/MESOSCALE SHEAR WILL
BE LOCALLY ENHANCED.
 
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
AFTER DARK TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS KS. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ AND APPROACH OF LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMANATING OUT OF THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY
MAY BE ROOTED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...MAGNITUDE OF MOIST
INFLOW...LAPSE RATES...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ALL APPEAR TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS. INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IF AN MCS CAN EVOLVE FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
 
...ERN ND/MN...
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE LIFT WITH UPPER LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT AND STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD FURTHER SUPPORT ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WITH SEVERAL HAIL EVENTS
LIKELY...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS.

The latest computer models are not agreeing on where the heaviest rainfall will be.  The NAM gives us more rain here in the KC metro and north, predicting around 1.72" by Friday night and the GFS gives much less putting the heavy rain south of KC giving us here in the metro right around 1" of total rainfall.  It really depends on where the front lands up.  We really don't need much more rainfall due to flooding concerns.  But we must watch it closely.  

Based on the latest data, my rainfall prediction is ** 1.2" ** at KCI.

We must watch this severe weather set up very closely.  It will be interesting to watch the Central Plains today.  Good luck to Jeremy Nelson and Sean Wilson as they chase the tornadoes.  Hopefully they will come back with some nice video and photos.  I will keep an eye on any changes to the Thursday set up for severe weather and also the chance of flash flooding.

Have a great day and remember to watch the sky closely!

Jacob Honeycutt

1.4 at KCI

2.6 in Raymore

what are you guesses Gary?

I'm guessing 1.3" at KCI and 2.7" at my house in Olathe.

I'm gonna take a stab at 1.78 inches for the rest of KC and about .96 for KCI.

Between June 3rd and today, we got 3.04 inches of rain @ 65th and State Avenue.  WOW got more than I expected, very glad we didn't have that much rain during our camping trip.

Stacy N the Gang

tornado watch out north of KC
and of course flood watch

Oh, of course!! This is all happening on the one day I choose to go to see the Royals game! Grr! I am normally excited for severe weather to arrive, but just because I don't want it to happen...it will. Eh well..."Que Sera Sera..."

I guess I will join the fun and make a rain prediction...I will be honest and say this is  a totally UN-educated guess...1.49 in Lee's Summit.  ::::fingers crossed::::

.36 KMCI

are we expecting storms here tonight or just rain?

Yeah, Gary should have specified where in the KC metro area the rain prediction should be for.  I chose KCI since it's the "official" station, and it's the station Gary uses for his 3 Degree Warranty, even though few live in that area.

There will most likely not be any storms tonight.  We might have an isolated storm but nothing wide spread.  Our chance of rain increases by tomorrow morning.

Jacob

.4 at my house just south of St. Joseph.  I believe I will again have one of the lowest totals in a 200 mile radius :)  .87 at KCI

Good afternoon weather team and to everyone!!! This afternoon is for sure living up to what the group Kansas sang about: We are the people of the south wind...pretty breezy here in SW Lawrence this afternoon!!!

I have actually been thinking about this quite a bit today and have already thrown up 2 random random blogs but when I have I ever been for a lack of words in here LOL!!!! So, I am going to take a stab at this and most likely end up with egg on my face!!!

In general terms, I think if one drew a line from Atchison to Fort Scott Kansas and then North East drew a box from those two points up into North East Iowa say the Quad Cities in that general area I would guess someone is going to get 3-4 inches of rain. Both the 12Z GFS and NAM pound out some pretty hefty totals from tomorrow morning into Friday morning in this "chute". The problem is that each has the bulk in different areas-the NAM is just a tad north of KCI and the GFS is just a tad south of say Ottawa, Kansas.

I am going to throw out that Lawrence winds up with 2 inches plus out of this event-here is my History/Latin teacher very little weather knowledge reasoning:

1. One could well take the average of the NAM and GFS and guestimate that the Lawrence to Kansas City area will wind up close if not in the bulls eye of the precipiatation.

2. The other factor is that convection has fired the past 2 days with little upper air support or surface support and has fired in a line just North West of Lawrence into between KC and St. Joe-this to me does lend some credence to the NAM over the GFS. Combine that with the fact that we will have a front that is trying to stay together and will according to the NAM get hung up in this area with a developing surface low, we should be in more of the zone.

3. The big fly for me is that all last Fall, Winter and this Spring the fronts have all cleared Lawrence-this is one of the reasons we "lucked" out on the snow this winter. The GFS has the front clearing all the way to just south of Ottawa-almost to Pleasonton, Kansas. The GFS solution is still makeing me wonder.

In the end, I will take one and two and say Lawrence gets 2 plus inches and think that the GFS has this lined up about 50-100 miles too far south. Of course, in the end, I am just a Latin/History teacher and most of this is prob. so far out of the ball park that I am trying to watch a Royals game from Worlds of Fun!!!

Again, 2 plus inches for Lawrence and Naismith and 23rd will become the Wakarusa river with Dillons on 23rd watching the water gush by its doors!!

Sorry so long again, but hey, got to keep with the mantra LOL and I have been thinking about this quite a bit!!!! Have a great afternoon!!

Bill in Lawrence

yay more storms!

1.2 at KCI which is pretty much my backyard.  I wish I could go chasing with someone, but alas my new job takes precedence.  Will be tracking tonight as much as possible... see you all here!

Hmmm...

In northern Overland Park, I think I'll get 1.8 inches. I seem to be getting a bunch of rain all at once in every storm!

At KCI... How about .63 inches?

Hail,

I wanted to get your thoughts on my post a little while ago.  

Hey Jonathan!

Predicting rainfall totals from convective rain events are much tougher to pin down at any one location compared to warm air advection events.  This will be fun.

The voice of Special Ed is in my brain, lol!

Here in St. Joe I will say an inch even and see what happens, for KCI I will say 2.50 inches.  Really what happens in Iowa and Neb. is more important in some ways concerning the Missouri River situation.

3.35" south of I-70.

2.25 inches for kci it's so thick out there you can cut the air with a knife. Where's the snow at?

4.1 inches and then my yard will grow like crazy again.  I need to mow twice a week during all this rain, but can't because of all this rain. :(

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml#GFS

Interesting read and very applicable to this and the past couple of storms.

Convective feedback is a known bias in the GFS.  Looking at the RUC, I am not greatly impressed regarding rainfall through mid day tomorrow.  Beyond that, I think most if not all rainfall will generally cease until Friday.

I haven't put a great deal of analysis in this, but gut tells me, much of the model feedback and my obs have shown the rainfall to be centered further away from what must be presumed to be the measuring point of KMCI

We will see....

Here is my prediction......1.10 (my hope anyways) with most of it falling very early Friday morning.  Man it is humid out...great pool day.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

new tornado watch just west of topeka until 10pm.

so these stronger storms, are they coming over night or in the morning?

just got back from my college orientation at Mizzou. On our way back as we based over the Missouri River and kept going i had never seen the river out of its banks like that. It was nearly a mile inland!!!

My prediction for my area... 1.50 inches.

Who wants to help me track any weather that pops up across central Kansas????  I have relatives that started out in Grand Junction CO (where they live) this morning.  They hit snow on Vail Pass.  Now they are just past Oakley KS and are headed thru the Tornado Watch once they get to Rusell.  They are coming here to KC to visit us and attend my niece's wedding.  They are going to call me if anything looks threatening.  I willl call them if they are headed towards any bad weather.

Kristi

I predict .18" at KCI and 3.4" in Greenwood. We really don't need anymore rain in Greenwood for a couple of weeks. I am tired of having to pump the excess water out of the pool.

Hey Kristi...I'll help.

Jacob

I say about a tenth of an inch (0.10") up near N. Oak & MO-152, and about a trace in Lee's Summit.

bellgolf08 where was the river like that?

I'm going to guess just a few miles west of Columbia.  That area floods like that quite a bit through there.

f00dl3...wow, are you ok today?  You seem pretty negative!  =(

1.9 inches in Harrisonville

Welcome back Brent!

Where have you been?

I will say 1.58 inches...in Lee's Summit...at KCI hmm... .002.  That's how the year has been so far.

I will say 4 inches for drexel and 2 inches for kci

Wow...where is Gary today?

NW Lawrence will receive 3.17" and KCI will get blasted with 3.38".  Larry

I am going to guess that KCI gets less than a half an inch.  South will get 2.4 inches.          melissa

Thanks Jacob!  It's much appreciated!  I have some things to do but will be tracking also.  Multi-tasking... gotta love it. :)

Kristi

Believe me...I know how you feel!  lol.

This is certainly a difficult setup.
1. Will we see an MCS develop over central Kansas overnight?
2. Will convection to the north sag the effective boundary south of the metro before the next wave of thunderstorms develop on Friday?

I think we'll see some convection roll through around 3am. Typical MCS, leading line of convection, weak echo channel, area of enhanced rainfall.
KCI... third to a half inch. Then I expect the boundary to stay south and fire up convection south of the metro once again on Friday afternoon. Some rain here, but to me, I think we're simply off on the timing of this thing.

hi All...Don't you love fighting depression it's just a party.

Welcome back, Brent!  Long time no see!

Kristi

okay fine I'll talk about the weather instead of being selfish and talking about my own self pitty.
HI BECKY!
HI KRISTY!
HI JACOB!
Jacob, your post earlier does get me excited. more storms would pull me out at least temporarily of this depression I'm in. I'm watching the big ULL coming out of the West it's a little farther north than the last ones but I think it could be interesting tomorrow we'll just have to wait and see.

Jonathan...never been there, but I know it's probably not much fun.  Maybe we can help you out and make you laugh or something...

Jacob

Exactly .5 inches at KCI with 3-4" well south of KC.

GFS blasts us late thursday night friday morning but the nam shows everything missing us to the north

HI JONATHAN!   lol.

3.8" I hope I am not too late.

who do we trust GFS or NAM? I'd like to trust the GFS cuz it hammers us with a nice squall line of sorts.

okay I'll forecast an amount...30 inches wide spread throughout the metro...where's Evan Almighty when you need him.

See...you can cheer yourself up!

Anyway, I really don't know which one to trust.  My thinking now is that we get less rain.  Now I would think around .65" at KCI and that may be a tad high.

Gary finally signed on...hi Gary!

Jacob

GARY JUST WROTE TWO BLOGS I DON"T KNOW WHICH ONE TO COMMENT ON

Kristi,

Storms are starting to fire in Kansas.

NEW BLOG

2.22 inches.