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HI Gary, I'm gonna be watchin you in a few minutes!

Kristi,

Storms are starting to fire in Kansas.

I think Gary might be over doing the rain forecast.  2"+ seems kind of high.

Sorry Gary, just my thoughts.

Jacob

This is my post from this afternoon...

Good Afternoon Everybody!

A tornado outbreak is likely over parts of Nebraska and Kansas later today.  The question is whether or not this set up will continue into tomorrow for us here in Kansas City?  Based on the latest information from the Storm Prediction Center, it is something we must watch closely.  They have expanded the slight risk and Kansas City is right in the middle of that risk.  We are currently in a 30% general risk of severe storms.  This will be broken down tomorrow so we can see what exactly our main threats are.  The soundings from the forecast from the SPC have changed some from the midnight forecast.  They seem a little more concerned about how intense the severe threat will be tomorrow.  I have a feeling that they will upgrade parts of the slight risk area to a moderate risk in later outlooks.  My feeling is that that risk upgrade will include or be close to us here in KC.  We will see how it plays out as we head through the rest of the day.  Below I have posted the latest from the SPC and what they are thinking for tomorrow.  Take a look.

Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 111702
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008
 
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES...MID MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS...
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN ND AND WRN MN...
 
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO OCCLUSION WHILE
MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER FROM FAR NWRN ND
INTO EXTREME SRN MANITOBA ON THU. BY AFTERNOON...THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW...OVER NRN ND/U.S. BORDER AREA...SEWD TO WI THEN SWWD ACROSS ERN
IA TO MO AND SRN KS. GREATEST PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE NRN SEGMENT OF THE
FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN EWD PROGRESSION OF MODEST MEAN-LAYER
WLY FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION. THE TRAILING SRN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS KS/OK AREA...POSSIBLY
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THESE AREAS.
 
BROAD SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN
STATES WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SKIRTING THE SRN FLANK OF THE
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN GULF. WEAK INHIBITION AND STRONG
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SCATTERED PULSE STORMS
ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
EVENTS.
 
...WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EWD INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE REGIME FROM WRN U.P. OF MI SWD ACROSS
WI/ERN IA/NRN IL AND MO. WHILE MARGINAL SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH MORNING STORMS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL/WIND IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS LIFT WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT SUSTAINS DEEP CONVECTION... AND
GREATER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.
 
EXPECT NUMEROUS ORGANIZED STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS GIVEN SBCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR 30-50KT. A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE BUT PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE LINEAR
GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING
FRONT. AN ENHANCED WIND/TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS NRN IL/SERN
WI DURING THE AFTERNOON IF STRONG DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF
ACCELERATING CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS.
 
...MO TO KS/OK...
STRONG CAP AND WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROBABLY
LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 90S F IN
SRN AREAS...85-90 F FARTHER NORTH...COUPLED WITH HIGH THETA-E AIR
MASS...WILL YIELD SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG.
 
STRONG HEATING/MIXING NEAR THE FRONT AND SOME BACKGROUND ASCENT
WITHIN/BENEATH JET ENTRANCE REGION WILL AID IN OVERCOMING INHIBITION
AND PROMOTE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM MO SWWD TO NERN OK/SERN KS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER 3KM AND
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
ALSO EXIST WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT... ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS ABLE TO
TRACK PREFERENTIALLY NEAR/ALONG STALLING FRONTAL ZONE NEAR KS/OK
BORDER WHERE LFC WILL BE LOWER AND STORMSCALE/MESOSCALE SHEAR WILL
BE LOCALLY ENHANCED.
 
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
AFTER DARK TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS KS. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ AND APPROACH OF LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMANATING OUT OF THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY
MAY BE ROOTED ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...MAGNITUDE OF MOIST
INFLOW...LAPSE RATES...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ALL APPEAR TO SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS. INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IF AN MCS CAN EVOLVE FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
 
...ERN ND/MN...
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE LIFT WITH UPPER LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT AND STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD FURTHER SUPPORT ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WITH SEVERAL HAIL EVENTS
LIKELY...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS.

The latest computer models are not agreeing on where the heaviest rainfall will be.  The NAM gives us more rain here in the KC metro and north, predicting around 1.72" by Friday night and the GFS gives much less putting the heavy rain south of KC giving us here in the metro right around 1" of total rainfall.  It really depends on where the front lands up.  We really don't need much more rainfall due to flooding concerns.  But we must watch it closely.  

Based on the latest data, my rainfall prediction is ** 1.2" ** at KCI.

We must watch this severe weather set up very closely.  It will be interesting to watch the Central Plains today.  Good luck to Jeremy Nelson and Sean Wilson as they chase the tornadoes.  Hopefully they will come back with some nice video and photos.  I will keep an eye on any changes to the Thursday set up for severe weather and also the chance of flash flooding.

Have a great day and remember to watch the sky closely!

Jacob Honeycutt

That storm in Kansas has just exploded!

Alex

Alex...it's amazing!

Looks like your coworkers are having fun with your cycling theory...good stuff.

I'll be damned if that's a theory.

Hello. Gary said that we don't even have a threat of thunderstorms until at least midnight. So, could anyone tell me if we are expecting these storms to be severe if they do make it to the metro around midnight or into Thursday morning?

Thanks.

Hey Chief! Gary didn't indicate that they would be severe tonight.

I don't like that gas price forecast they talked about a few minutes ago!

Ok. Thanks Hail.

I just don't like gasoline period...there's plenty of other technology out there they can use and perfect, but noo they won't make any money off of it. but anywho I shouldn't talk about that here.

your the chief, chief!=)

Gary...do you not feel like talking today?  =)

he's probly busy monitoring the weather to the west.

maybe he will pop in and say hi...

yeah we can keep dreamin =0

where in the heck did everyone go. as soon as I got here everyone stopped talking. that upsets me.

Jacob are you young like me or old like uhh.. somebody else.

Gary,

Do you know when the website will be back up to the HD graphics?

I'm 16...

I'm 26 years old so a lot of people would call that young but somepeople would call that old....I'm gonna guess that your close to my age.

I know...everybody just packed up and left...I guess it's just us.  

Jacob your pretty mature for 16 and I'm pretty immature for 26. lol

I'm about to pack up too. My Wife and Father and I are going out for Thai food in a few minutes

Jacob are you a fan of Big storms?

Thank you very much!  Have a great time!  Good talking to you.  

See you later...

Yes...huge fan!  People think I crazy.

I have to admit while it's nice and calm in here that days when we get put under a high risk are the happiest and most exciting days of my life.

I'm not leavin yet...my wife and dad have to get here first....that's cool I'm a huge fan of the most dangerous kinds of weather.

okay well now I'm outta here they just got here. nice talkin to ya Jacob. See ya later!

What people don't understand is that I'm a big fan of severe weather, but with that said, I don't like that peoples lives and property get damaged, I just like the excitement.

See ya

Anybody else out there...

Talk about some huge thunderstorms out in Kansas...

Gary, just got home and missed the forcast.  Are you going to post your predicted rainfall for the event?  I am in Lee's summit did anyone catch the total predicted for here?  Kristy

Hey Kristy...Gary has Lee's Summit in the 1"-2" range.

Need more info, let me know.

Jacob

Jacob, thanks so much, is most of that w/thurs am or fri am?  Anything severe expected?  Kristy

Hi Kristy!  Glad your back.  I enjoy watching your posts.  Hope your family is ok.

Wow, jacob and HailJonathan, looks like the blog belongs to you guys tonight!

Go up to my long post at the top of the page and that will answer your questions...

Jacob

Alden...lol.

FYI there are 2 kristys 1 in Lee's Summit and 1 in raytown.  She is simply Kristi.  I did not want to be rude and not answer.  I love reading her posts as well.  Kristy

where do you live?

\_O__/

We will probabily be upgraded to a Moderate risk.

right by langsford and blackwell roads.

Hey All,
I have been talking to my relative as she comes across central KS.  She hit the first batch of rain just west of Russell, I believe.  I gave her an idea of what was around her.  Then she called me when she got to Russell and was kind of hanging out.  I told her that she would be out of the rain in 10 miles.  At last report, she was west of Salina.  I tried to contact her just now to make sure she was east of Salina but got no answer.  

Sorry it has taken me awhile to get back to the blog.  Things have been crazy here!

Kristi

Anyone watching kory's cam?

Hey Kristi,

Hope everybody's ok!

Jacob

Kristy,

Did you get the weather info you needed?

this really isnt a major tornado outbreak. mod risk is pretty common north of here in June, still no tornado reports in KS as of 7 13 pm.

Kristy go to Kory's cam.  

I'll bring popcorn. lol  spotter site saying they saw tornado by holyrood and loraine ks

Yes, Jacob thank you sooo much.  Kristy

Look at ESP...WOW!

Is anyone watching kory's chase cam?

I don't understand the tornado talk for the metro, are we talking about tomorrow?  Right now it looks like NWS has the KC Metro in a 0% risk for tornados and just a 2% risk in far northwest MO.  Please correct me if I'm wrong because I'm still learning. :)

my folks in iowa just called.  getting reports of a boy scout camp in iowa near omaha hit by large tornado...numerous hospitals called and several casualties

Good grief it looks like 16 or so counties have tornado warnings between Nebraska and Iowa.  

Tornado warning in Lincoln, Nebraska.  There are reports of a funnel cloud over the central part of the city, but my mom said the "official" spotter say no.  Scary stuff!  

Boy scout camp was hit by a tornado.... 30 - 40 injured as of right now.

Hey all!

just dropping in to say hello... lol

This storm is dropping tornados everywhere to the north in eastern nebraska and western Iowa... as Lincoln and Omaha are both under tornado warnings! I hope everyone will be safe up there.

Gary i loved your summer forecast!!!!!!! (havent been able to read it... ive been busy) lol but it was very great. I thank you for being so dedicated!


Hail and Jacob... haha! and btw, im 15.... AND I FREAKING LOVE WEATHER! people think im crazy too... but i tell them im PASSIONATE! lol

We are talking about possible tornadoes tomorrow!  We don't have to worry about any severe weather today.  Our chance will be tomorrow and Friday.

Four fatalities in boyscout camp as of last know info

God, I hope everybody is ok.

weatherdude...now I have somebody like me...lol.  send me a private message and we can talk...

Jacob

Boy I hope this is NOT what heads our way tomorrow!  But something tells me...

If you go to the severe studios site you can click on the link to the Omaha station and watch live.  My parents live northwest of Omaha and I know exactly the areas they are talking about.  The tornado crossed I-29 and went to the Loes Hills north of Omaha.  Omaha under the gun know.

I am watching Dennis' cam eerie

Go to this website to see live coverage...

http://www.wowt.com/

http://www.ketv.com/video/9312602/index.html

This is also a live feed from Omaha.

yawn.

Ok everybody, I've got to go.  Have a great night and I'll talk to you all tomorrow.  Keep an eye on the sky.  

Jacob

The SPC has updated todays severe weather risk.  We are now in a chance of tornadoes, hail and wind.  Here is the info.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

http://data.ksn.com/video/radarstream.html

Live severe weather coverage from KSN in Wichita for Great Bend.

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
 NORTHERN BARTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT.

* AT 726 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
 TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
 DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALBERT...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
 GREAT BEND...MOVING EAST AT 38 MPH.

I talked to my relative probably 45 mins ago...  They were close to Abilene KS.  Looks like they are still ahead of the storms.  I haven't had a chance to look in awhile.  I wish I had more time sit down and comment tonight but unfortunately I don;t.

Thanks, Jacob, for trying to help me out!

Kristi

Hello everyone.

Wow those storms are beasts. kinda wished i coulda chased today.
we'll see if these storms hold together while headin our way tonight.

bad news out of Little Sioux IA, 4 campers have been killed - these are big bad storms

have lots of family in great bend, havent heard anything from them.

very sad about the boy scouts, seems to be a pretty active night.

I thought we were supposed to be done with severe weather for the season. Looking outside now here in Lee's Summit it does not even look like it will storm within the next 24 hours.
Audra

If you go to http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ you can really see the line of the storm on the US map. Lots of yellows and reds. I feel for the boy scouts and their families. Here they are having fun one minute and the next they are either dead or injured. Very sad!
Audra

Oh my gosh!  Those poor scouts!  How horrible.  

Is this storm really heading our way? Starting to get a little worried......

I feel horrible for the scouts.  Are these storms coming our way.  Are we expected to have severe storms here?

Eastern Neb./wstern Iowa is getting nailed.  Flash flooding and power outages in Omaha and Lincoln. My mother left me a message that they are ok- about 35 miles NW of Omaha- lots  of funnels she said but nothing touched down in that immediate area.

ok, so I'm one of those people who's worst fear is tornadoes and my husband is trucking tonight, so I'm home alone with my 2 year old and 7 week old. We live in the country (just moved near Eagleville in Harrison County) so there aren't any sirens. Should I set-up the weather radio I got in the mail today for tonight?

Looking for some radar interpretation....
I have a loved one taking a disaster communication vehicle to Cedar Falls tonight.  He is now in Des Moines.  How long until the weather hits the des moines area and north?  Current time here is 9:35

The little storm showed during the 5pm news certainly has exploded I just now looked at the radar and was shocked.  

Gary whats your feel for the meso that came out at 8:57PM?  They say the watch will be extended for additional counties in NE KS, NW MO how far east and south will they extend this do you think?

Well mother nature is being evil again tonight... those storms are monsters, the last few times we have had a set up like this the storms would get right up to St. Joe, then weaken dramatically so it will be interesting to see what happens tonight.

refrank- i would setup our weather radio just to have it ready if anything did happen. Its always better safe than sorry.

wow a monster in salina,ks that is one nice hook.

Tornado Watch #512 until 3AM, Atchison, Jackson, Jefferson, Douglas
Counties in Kansas

Damn.  The Boy Scout camp was demolished with a full load of boys there.  

Salina is in big trouble.

Bad freaking night.

A tornado hit a Scot camp near Omaha.  Least 4 have been confirmed killed with numerous injuries.  Pray for those families and let's hope no more tornado's tonight, anywhere!!

There is a wicked bow forming up in the northwestern parts of MO and headed our way.  Going to bed now to try to get some sleep tonight.

wow those storms in Kansas are MONSTROUS! I don't think that even BEGINS to describe them!

my weather radio just went off for a TORNADO WATCH for Platte and Clay in Mo.

Well they have just issued a Tornado Watch for us for what it is worth.

why am I not in that tornado watch. that's not fair.

This is, in my humble opinion, worse than I imagined.  I thought last weekend was going to be really bad.  It was, but it was properly hyped up and we were made aware.  This may be sneaking up on us.  I'm no expert, I'll leave that to the fellas in Gary's shop.  But, wow, those are some heavy storms west of here.  Salina appears to have been missed.  No consolation to the folks that live south and east of there.  Massive hook.

There is a new blog

Jonathan ~ you can have my tornado watch tomorrow night, ok?

Kristi -

I sure hope your family is east beyond the storms by now.  Eh?