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its  all hype

just south of 2 and a quarter in. in st jo. still raining lightly. soggy dog walking weather

As of 6:30 a.m., I have had 1.02" in my rain gauge since midnight in southwest Lawrence.   Was rocked out of bed by very loud thunder clap sometime after 4 a.m.

Best wishes to the people of Manhattan and KSU. Sounds like campus took quite a hit.  So sad about Chapman.  

What's all hype?  The children that were killed and injured in Iowa?  The major flooding going on throughout the midwest?  The potential for heavy rain and flooding in the metro area?

2.4 inches here just south of St. Joseph.  I can't believe all the rain.  Just good old fashioned thunderstorms last night.  I am so thankful that those storms weakened after the violent tornadoes across Kansas.  My thoughts and prayers are with all the families that have been displaced by flooding, tornadoes and hail this year.

I am glad to send the front further south to let someone else share the rain, although everyone else seems to be getting water logged.  

Gary:

Good showery morning to you sir from SW Lawrence!!! My rain guage had the exact amount as Larry2KCDaily so SW Lawrence picked up just overn an inch last night. Still have quite a few showers moving through this morning-will be interesting to see how long they hold together but on satelite, it appears they are kind of firing right along that front.

Thoughts and prayers go out to Manhattan and the Boy Scout camp-just terrible!!

What will today and tonight bring? To this Latin/History teacher with very limited weather acumen, this looks to be a nightmare to pin down but man, if say Lawrence does indeed pick up another 1-2 inches tonight as the GFS hints at, we could have some real flooding concerns around here. Little acumen noted, as usual, a few random observations:

1. The front: on the 11Z surface data, it appears to be just south of Lawrence looking at the wind field, but if one looks at the pressure field it appears to be just north of Lawrence. Does the front jump a bit back North today as the RUC seems to hint at and if it does, do we clear out or does the front stay draped over us all day? Can the front become as well defined as it was yesterday? Man, at 21Z yesterday that thing was clear as day!!!!

2. The models: Can you really trust them at this point with all the left over boundries, frontal issues etc.?? The 6Z GFS has indeed moved the heavier precipiatation fields further North but as Scott pointed out yesterday what of feed back issues?? Maybe just look at the RUC and in reality it is total now cast time.

3. What a vigorous upper level low sitting in North Dakota this morning-can that spin up there help keep the front enhanced enough?? By the way, quite the upper level low-over a foot of snow in Montana yesterday with some lower 40's for highs in North Dakota-wow!!!! Also, on the surface charts, it appears there are some surface low trying to form along the front this morning-if they do indeed form and track up the front, what role will they play??

4. I went with 2 inches plus for Lawrence from this whole event-I am wondering if I was not a bit low on that idea. I just have a feeling we are going to get quite a bit of rain from this in addition to what fell last night if that front does indeed jump a bit further north today. However, one thing I mentioned yesterday and I still am thinking about: all winter and spring these fronts have cleared Lawrence-is that going to happen today??

5. Well, by about 1:00 tonight should begin to show itself-the front should be where it will be and the cards shouls be layed on the table!!!!

Wow-4 blogs in 24 hours-again, is this June or is it December LOL!!!! Sorry so long, but I have been thinking about this for a couple of days and of course, there is a front showing up on surface charts-a rare treat in mid June-not much to get me excited LOL!!!! Have a great day and my family will be watching you as always to know what is going to happen!!! You, Jeremy, Brett, and Jeff are (do I say it??!!) TIGHT!!!!!

Thanks for reading and have a great day

Bill back under my rock in Lawrence

NW Lawrence has received 1.11" through 7:00 AM this morning.  Based on your forecast, my guesstimate yesterday of how much rain we will see through Friday is looking pretty good.

Larry

Easton, MO as of 7:20 this morning has received 1.00" of rainfall.  Looks like we missed out on the heavy rain,  but the 1.00" we received from Mother Nature helped out the garden.  I won't have to water this week.

Looking ahead I will be at Truman Lake the week of June 23rd.  What do you see the weather being around that time frame

Jennifer

Well, I just looked at the chances of precep from NOAA for Lee's Summit. I still had a window open from last night. So from last night at around 11 p.m. to this morning the chances for precep went down 10% today and tonight and 20% for tomorrow. So maybe we won't get slammed here in Lee's Summit. Of course NOAA has been known to change the precep odds on the fly. I guess we will all have to wait and see how it all pans out.
Audra

JennIrat:  Be prepared for very high water with beaches closed and campgrounds closed.  They raised all the boat docks by 15 foot last night.  The corps of engineers do this when they expect the lake to take a big rise.  It is going up 3.5 feet a day on average.  I was out crappie fishing Tuesday evening and the lake is real murky and high.  You just might call ahead of time if you are planning on camping in one of the Corp's areas.  Just a FYI.  Jim in Clinton

So, do you ever see it drying out this summer?

Wow, Lawrence and St. Joe beat me on rain.  Here in rural McLouth we had 0.50 as of 7AM.

Tornado map for Kansas for 06-11-2008
http://www.wibw.com/home/headlines/19816324.html

Somebody last night blogged that the tornado in Manhatten was not that significant was in fact only straight line winds.  Duh!  Whoever it was supposedly was watching the feed from WIBW so where they got the idea it was not a tornado I will never know.  Perhaps if they were there maybe.  Well, lets hope a tornado doesn't land anywhere near him or his neighbors.

JennIrat:  Here is a toll free number to the corp's to check on conditions of campgrounds and beaches: (877) 444-6777.  Jim in Clinton

Gary,
You continue to amaze me!  You stayed in the studio till late last night to keep everyone posted and were up this morning posting before the sun was even thinking about coming up!!!

Know how much you are appreciated by so many of us in the metro area!!!

Rain gauge says .20 west of Ottawa.  Is today's main threat more rain? My heart goes out to all those who suffered damage and lose.  Laura

I have a question, are we waiting to see where the front actually is this afternoon to see which places get the rain?

Bewild79, basically yes, who would get the heaviest amount of rain.  It's a waiting game for now.  .08 in my rain guage at 159th and Ridgeview in Olathe.

Thanks Tinpusher!
Becky

My brother is a firefighter in Manhattan and my parents and sister live there too.  I have tried calling all this morning, but didn't reach anyone yet.  They live near campus on the north side of town.  Praying they are all OK!

It looks like the front may stall and possibly start to lift a bit north especially in east central Kansas. Quite a bit of cloud cover though west of us that may limit storm coverage. We could still see some heavy rains if the front hangs overhead through the late afternoon/evening as there would be some training over the same areas. We really do not need that.

Anyone know of the storm chaser websites that might have pics of Chapman up?  Got a bunch of friends from there and they are in the dark as to what happened.  No cell reception, no entry to town, and so forth.  I figure the chasers got into town prior to it being shut down by the authorities.

Tawn00,
I will say prayers that they are ok too.  I think we should all say a prayer for everyone that was in the devastating tornados last night......

Western KCK got just over a half-inch.....that is at 123rd & Hollingsworth.

Thank you for your prayers!  Good news!  I reached my sister and none of my family's homes were hit.  On the news there, they are talking that maybe it wasn't a true touchdown and that the "tail of the tornado" did a little skipping through town.  I guess the damage is kind of hit and miss.  I will try to get more info from my brother later.  Being a firefighter, he, was called out to help last night.

Let's continue to think of those who were hit hard by last night's storms!

My grandpa is at the nursing home in Chapman.  We talked to a nurse, all residents are okay.  She seemed a bit in shock and did not provide too much more information.  I am at work with no TV, so any info on Chapman would be appreciated.  My grandma is in Abilene and will let us know anything she finds out.  I'm sure she and her church will be very involved in helping the displaced citizens of Chapman.  Not a great way to wake up this morning.

so when does the rain kick off for the metro...so far it's all north and west of the metro?

so i went to bed last night and saw only that the boy scout camp was hit. i wake up and see that a town is bascially gone. a campus is damaged and that there is a severe weather threat today. hopefully not as bad as yesterday.

Boy you can cut the humidity with a knife, wow is it muggy this morning.

Our thoughts & prayers go out to all those affected by last night's storms.  I cannot wait for this severe season to be finished!

And yet, despite all the loss of property and life this season , there are those who still wish they were getting more storms and complain about it here in the blog. As much as I love chasing with Sean, never NEVER would I wish to see this nearby or anywhere else. And those who ask for this weather cannot keep justifying themselves by saying "as long there's no damage or anyone hurt." Sometimes we severe weather lovers need to keep our exuberance to ourselves and off the blog , understanding that yes it is exciting, but to those who have felt nature's fury and power life will never be the same again.

You all said that Jeremy Nelson was tornado chasing with Sean Wilson yesterday evening in Central KS.  Did Jeremy get to experience any of these tornadoes?

Well finally got home from working on the ambulance. Manhattan has been hit hard, The areas of eureka lake/drive were my folks live is really bad. The farmer by my folks had just got everything fixed from the softball size hail the hit earlier. Tornado missed my folks house by 200yds, It hit the miller ranch area with major damage, also hit the car dealership on amherst and the brand new true value store of sethchilds is no longer there. Campus had major damage also. Im getting ready to go out and help my folks' neighbors clean up. I'll try to get some pics of the damage

Weather team -

Just emailed pics of damage in Chapman to you.

I saw some wierd weather in the clouds this morning: when the tail of a t-shower ( apparently small) moved thru I saw the clouds suddenly get smushed forward bowing out in to a line that most windfronts have and it was clouds everywhere, in 30 sec half the sky was blue! That must of been a really strong wind! Byan.

Gary or Jeremy, I'm confused. NOAA has reduced the amount of rain for the La Cygne area to upto 1" to night at 3/4" tomorrow. Is this storm tracking further south and east? I sure hope so. Or are you still thinking 1-4" for this area?

Jeri, I have a problem with your comment.  Although I am sure that all the severe weather enthuiasts never wish severe tornados and damage on anyone, it is not fair for you to say that we cannot ask for thunderstorms "as long as there is noone hurt and no severe damage."  The blog is where we talk about these things, and although all thoughts and prayers are with those unfortunate enough to be hit with deadly severe weather, how dare you say that we are not allowed to talk about liking thunderstorms and heavy rain?  Normally, I agree with most of your comments and ideas...this one, however, was way off!

So since the sun is coming out does that mean that there will be a higher chance of severe weather today and tonight?

When I read the SPC and NOAA for my area for tonight and tomorrow, it doesn't sound very good. Pretty scary in fact. My local Met guys (2 stations) mention the severe but say that it'll be hail and rain. Wonder if NOAA is over-playing it a bit or if my local Met's are down-playing it.

LSMO

My son was dispatched to Chapman this morning with the electric company. I called him, he said the nursing home has structural damage and is without power and they were on back up generator, it is their first priority to get them back online but the damage is massive throughout the town. No one was injured at the nursing home, and although they are running on back up power and limited staff, everyone is fine. He said most of the town is gone or badly damaged, National Guard has all access to the town limited to Emergency Personally only He said most of the people are walking around in a daze but there is plenty of trained emergency responders on the scene.
I have limited access to him as he and 100 other electric guys are trying to deal with live downed power lines, I will do my best to update as I can.

Alby, I didn't say thunderstorms and rain. Although most people likely wish the rain would stop for awhile. I am speaking strictly about severe weather and those who wish the damaging storms were on top of them. To me, there is a difference between normal summer thunderstorms and those that spawn funnels and baseball size hail, that some on here get upset about because the funnel was not near them. Please try to understand where I am coming from before you go off on me.

ALBY21 I think you missed Jeri's point, reread it and try to comprehend it please.  Skim reading makes people miss what is important when a person writes something.  Take the time to understand what is said before slamming someone.  Jeri isn't saying not to talk about t-storms or heavy rain, Jeri is talking about Tornadoes, Flooding, and people hoping for them "as long as there is no damage or anyone hurt."  I totally understand what is being said in that paragraph.

I get valuable information and weather education from this blog. It doesn't bother me a bit that we have weather enthusiasts on here. If they weren't enthusiastic they wouldn't be here helping.

I can't imagine anyone on here wanting someone to get hurt or their property damaged. For the most part everyone has been extremely helpful.

Let's all play nice today instead of a repeat from last Thursday. I'm going to need this blog tonight.

Boootz - Thank you so much for the update.  I appreciate any info you come across.  We did not know if they would have to be evacuated or not.

Well said Lorie.  Alby, I understand what you meant.  

Does anyone know how much the chance of severe weather would go up since the sun is coming out?

I hope I will be able to make it all the way through the royals game befor the rain hits. I am thinking it will hit around the 6-8pm time frame but that is a total shot in the dark. So if it is going to start sooner will someone let me know.

Thanks,

http://www.zazzle.com/lrc_shirt-235010432022908057

Manhattan had similar damage to Kearney, except only on one side. I'm a little worried about severe weather today. I don't know about a cap or any of that yet, but it's already 78 and humid in Shawnee. We had a nice loud thunderstorm around 6:30AM. This front is apparently just NW of us.
BeWild79, if the clouds leave and it becomes sunny, the temperature is going to approach 90 degrees with humidity. That's not good. I don't know about tornadoes, but severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and destructive hail become likely.

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After seeing a lot of severe weather yesterday I'd be happy to just have a gentle rain this evening.  I'll try to blog about my chase with Sean Wilson yet today!

Jeremy

Siegel12,
That is what I thought, but I was not too sure, especially since I am not too sure where the front actually is right now..
Becky

Here are some viewer pics from the WIBW website:  http://wibw.mycapture.com/mycapture/photos/Album.aspx?EventID=270426&CategoryID=34912  From reading briefly there, it sounds like most of Chapman was destroyed. :(  I knew someone from there when I was going to KU.

Kristi

First off, Tinpusher, the comment was to Jeri...not you.

Jeri, my only problem was your wording of "severe weather."  I completely understood the comment; if you had said tornadoes, then I would not have said anything.  However, your term of severe weather was very broad and encompasses thunderstorms and rain. Someone wishing for a tornado to touchdown near them is pretty much a death wish, at the very least a life changing event as I have been through three.  I agree with your comment when it comes to tornadoes, however not with the wording of "severe weather."  My only other thing is that this blog is an open forum, although they may be a bit crazy, people should be allowed to mention if they wish for that.  People who have never been through a severe tornado do not know how much emotional damage it can do to people, as well as the physical.

Lorie- I couldn't agree with you more!  I have been involved with tornadoes and other severe weather events.  I still appreciate the excitement of it all.  I think the people who are talking about wanting the severe weather are young and not wanting bad things to happen to anyone, they are just getting excited.  I am hoping for some really big storms with lots and lots of rain tonight myself.  Hope everyone has a good day and look forward to tonight and this evening.

I think Severe weather is a possibility today. Looks like the front is stalling out and I think the severe threat would be large hail. Tornado threat looks to be better to the south of Paola but its still not anywhere near as bad as what it was last night so I would say that threat is very minimal. Its gonna be a fine line on whether the severe storms fire right on top of us or just to the south.

Children!! Let's all play nice, I would hate to have the blog closed to comments today

Yikes! Tinpusher I appreciate your understanding. Alby I am sorry that my lack of defining what I meant by severe weather and comment upset you so much. I am as passionate as the next person about storms, and while I would like my yard to dry out, I enjoy watching a thunderstorm roll through. I do not consider a thunderstorm automatically severe. We have them in California and they are just that..thunderstorms. No watches, no warning, there is just a storm, so perhaps that is my bad that I did not differentiate that to begin with.
I will also say that both Gary and Jeremy have had to ask people to tone things down when they have wished for damaging storms.
That being said, since suddenly I have become the bad guy, and expressed my leaving earlier this week, I will adhere to that and after this post will cancel my account. Yes it is an open forum, and people should be allowed to psot their opinions. I posted mine, and got slammed for it.

You said it ALBY open forum, if I choose to respond to your post whether directed at me or not is my choice.  Your comment came off as a slam, maybe a little more clarity in your post and it would of led to less misunderstanding.  However, after reading your last paragraph I understand your point of view.  Thank you for sharing it.  I'm not on here to cause conflict.

Boootz-at least on my part there was no anger.  I was simply explaining to Jeri why what he said bothered me.  Simple wording problems...

On a weather note...It is 78 in Holt and VERY muggy.  There is still a solid cloud cover though, so hopefully we will not warm up to the nineties where tornadoes would be likely to form somewhere around us.

Gary and team,

The SPC has a pretty strong suggestion of supercells and possible tornadoes in our area????  What are your thoughts on this risk?  As bad as this season has been, I would prefer it does not occur.

Mine wern't in anger either.  Sorry if it was construed that way.

Kids! Kids!  Play nice.  We are all family here.

It is muggier than an Amazon sauna factory.

Jeri dont leave we value you here!!!

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Let's all get along...we have a lot to discuss today about the weather.  And it is exciting!

Jeremy

Jeri I wish you wouldnt' go, but I do totally understand your reasoning.  I hope we can keep in touch tho.  I do have a question for you, but its not "blog" appropriate.

Stacy

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