NBC Action Communities

Here are some pics of Chapman and Manhattan from the Topeka NWS office:  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=top&storyid=15324&source=0

Kristi

Since I can't watch the 11 am news, can someone post the forcasted rain falls for south of the city and the severe weather threat outlook?

Farmgirl, Im with you.  I am teaching summer school and will not have a chance to catch the midday show.  Would someone mind posting a summary for my area as well...I am in Holt (stuck between Smithville and Plattsburg).  

Thanks for any information given! :-)

The front has drifted back north.  Here at 59th and N Oak the humidity and tempurature have gone up considerably, winds are calm.  Is the front predicted to go any further north today?  And if it does will this bring the heavy rain and severe threat further north?  I have watched this blog for about a year now and have posted a few times.  The best thing I have found is that I have a phone with web capabilities and can download the bog on that.  That brought a lot of comfort last night with an 18 year old a work and 3 younger kids at home.   Thank you for all the hard work and the regular updates through the blog and through the broadcasts.

Jeremy,

Sounds like you guys tracked the very same areas as we did last Thu.  We came back from Salina via I-70 then along US 24 from the manhattan area also thru Bellevue.

It's sad to see that your chase had damage and injuries.  Very sorry to hear those reports.

Jeff

******************

Jeff,

Our chase covered over 600 miles!  To Beatrice, NE first.  Then south thru Concordia to Salina.  Then west 20 miles.  After that it was back to Salina and then east back home.

Jeremy

Just got an email from Jeri...

She's sorry she upset anyone with her post, she's cancelled her account and cannot post anymore.
I wasn't around when all the chaos started, but from what I read she was fully in the right about what she said.  Severe weather is NOT something to cheer for, my goodness look at all those innocent people killed or injured.  People here need to grow up and realize that mother nature don't play.

Stacy

Does anybody know where I can find a temperature map for Canada? I have a vacation there in a week and can't get a consistent forecast for the area I will be in.

**********************

I think weather underground has that info.

Jeremy

Winter

I have a friend in Ontario, and I watch her weather thru yahoo.  In fact her weather is right under mine on My Yahoo page.

Stacy

Stacy,
Tell Jeri that I liked having her imput on this blog and I agree with what she was saying...is there any way she would make another account and come back?  

Becky

WinterTracker,

Where are you headed in Canada?  We are heading to Sioux Narrows Ontario (Lake of the Woods)on the 20th.  I have been watching TWC for their 10 day forecast and temps.  From what I've heard from my parents that are already there, they have had lots of rain and wind.

I'll do that Bewild.  I'm almost betting, she's reading.. but cant' reply.  I'm sure she could make another account, but I understand why she left.  

Now that I'm back here, I'm not shy about saying stuff about immature behavior.. just ask the old man.. lol

Stacy

Stacy,
That's too bad.  The blog has totally changed for me since last week.  I certainly don't enjoy it like I once did.  That's why I don't post as much anymore.  I guess the damage in Manhattan, the boys scout camp, and Chapman are not enough for some.  I may follow in Jeri's footsteps.  There are other places that take weather pretty seriously and people don't root for bad weather.

Kristi

*******************

That damage was a downer yesterday seeing it first hand.

Jeremy

Interesting new info about the front stalling. Our local Met. guy was anticipating that it would stall over us tonight and tomorrow creating round after round of storms.

Usually, I don't get concerned about heavy rain and flooding. But I'm changing my ways. My husband and I were at a lady's house last night that is in a wheel chair. She and her mother live together and the mother has severe health problems as well. We cleaned out their gutters in anticipation of tonights storms. I don't know how much that helped them. There home has flooded 3 times this year.  So I'll be paying more attention to the flood watches and warnings.

It looks like the spc has shifted the 2% tornado threat a little further north to about St joe. Again, its a 2% chance of a spin up but Severe weather is Severe weather and you should always pay attention to the NWS and Gary and the guys when they say we do have a threat. Looks like the large hail threat is much higher than the Tornado threat.   As far as some of the recent comments. I do not condone people "cheering" for severe weather, that is not fair to those who have been thru the recent events or known someone who has. It would be nice if folks would not say "I hope we see some Tornadoes" etc.... I am fascinated with weather in general and this is in fact a "Weather Blog" so I hope when people like myself discuss severe weather threats, they won't get misconstrued as wanting to see or have severe weather, I look at the maps and try to let people know what I think may happen. I think that benefits everyone who is concerned about Severe Weather and want to be safe. Keep an eye to the sky today folks and be safe.

Hey Kristi,
You are correct this blog has changed with the amount of people that come in here there is just a clash in opinions.  Hopefully some people will learn to respect others and act like adults so we can have the comments that are needed on here about the weather.  I am learning alot being in here and you Kristi have contributed to that and I appreciate it.  I just try to ignore the non-respecting people out there and only pay attention to the ones that give the info that people want and need to hear about the weather.  Hopefully Jeri will change her mind and come back...but if not I wish her well and hope everyone stays safe always.
Becky

here is some awesome aerial footage of the tornado damage from manhattan

http://www.ksn.com/news/local/19822559.html?video=YHI&t=a

Nooooooooooo Kristi.. you can't leave me too.  EEEEKS  who am i gonna ask bout the radar now??  well if you do leave, you gotz to keep me posted on where you are.. cuz I'll follow too..  

Boy I must have really missed on heck of a mess while I was gone.  I just may go back n pull up the archives... ugg homework.. I never did like that stuff lmao.

Lorie, hope the flooding stays far away.. I remember 93 very well.  We lived in southern Exclesior Springs at the time, and every time it rained the bridge going to our house flooded, (but it did that anytime it rained over a 1/2 in in one day) and that was the only way in or out.. moved out and back down here.. re-routing around the I635 flooding, because it was way out of control.. to moving out my mother-in-law's trailer near the Ks river..  and ended up the flooding event by doing a ton of flood clean-up.  Floods are NO fun at all.

Stacy.

Well said Mammatus.  I was not on the blog last night, however other than that, it has been some time since I have read postings wanting tornadoes.  As I said in the previous entry, people wishing for tornadoes might just have a death wish and must not realize the emotional damage that comes with tornadoes.

*******************

Okay...let's move on.  Whatever happened yesterday is done and hopefully everyone can focus on the exciting weather ahead for today.  The front is right on top of the northern metro right now!

Jeremy

Jeremy,

We almost went out there last night but I didn't get off 'till 1730 CDT.  My day job is really putting a cramp in my style!  We're also trying to buy a new house this week.

The NWS made it sound like those cells were supposed to merge into a squall line quickly like our Thu chase, so we didn't go out...lol.  

Of course we wouldn't have made it back unitl waaayyy late given that those cells in KS started West of SLN and pretty much didn't move much.  I was surprised to see them hold together in an apparent Super Cell Cluster for as long as they did and the ones up in NE and IA spawned TV's in a linear fashion.

Post your pics on the blog here also if you can.  Working all day again till 1800 CDT so I might not catch the news 'till 2200 CDT.

Glad to see you guys made it back ok.  I found out how physically demanding chasing long distances is!

Jeff

******************

I'm exhausted...but I'll post some pictures soon.

Jeremy

Jeremy,
With the front that close and the sun coming out, does that mean severe chanes will get higher?  I am at work so I couldnt watch the news cast.
Becky

Jeremy,

First time blogger here. I am going to be out in the Brookside area tonight from 6-8 p.m. - do you think the storms will fire up before/during that time, or will we stay dry. Thanks!
Chad

Jeremy- great video!

Where was that HUGE cyclone looking cell you have video of- was it West of Salina close to Kanopolis ? What a sight to see! I am sure you will remember that chase for many years to come.... I heard that cattle were killed in that area by the large hail-so I was wondering if that was the storm you guys were on.

JP

Jeremy,
It looks like showers are already forming along the front, right through the heart of the metro. Nothing heavy at this point, but they just formed. Is the heavy rain event starting already? Or are these just a couple random showers.

David

"Okay, lets move on".

I have heard that alot in the last few months.  Unfortunate.

I am going to stay out of the fray..good luck all.

KMCI got pounded last night with all this rain.  .09 inches.  Coming from downtown today, the front is nearly stationary right over downtown.

Near the federal building, it was 72 degreesish, just a few miles south, it quickly jumped near 80.

Will be interesting to see how the "official" reading of KMCI represents this rain event if indeed they stay north of the stationary front.

******************

Didn't KCI get 0.24"?  The temps vary A LOT across the region.

Jeremy

Jeremy- glad you were able to chase yesterday, sorry you had to see so much sad things. Yesterday wasnt a good weather day thats for sure.

All I want to say is I value everyone's comment on the Blog. That is what Blogs are comments and opinions. Everyone will read something the wrong way but we have to realize that it is a Blog. So step back, try not to get so emotional (trust me i am pregnant i know emotions) over things and move on. lets talk about weather, if you like it, tell us , if you dont, we understand tell us too.  

WOW seeing the pics of Chapman, KState, and the Boy Scout camps really hurts my heart.  It also puts fear in it remembering the tornados we have had here.  So close to home even though it really wasn't that close.  Just a little shift and it could have been here.  Amazing to me how many times I thought we would get slammed with snow or severe storms and a little shift put it North or East of us.  

Just checked rain guage for last night's total  .44 inches of rain.  Felt a few sprinkles while I was out there.

Pretty good looking Cumulonimbus cloud forming just west of the metro. Decent looking updrafts. Has some lean to it too.

Jeremy, I was looking at the CF6 for yesterday.  They did pick up a bit this morning...but...we are talking about a tenth or two of rain in the context of a forecast with precision of inches.

LOL...  Yes, temps are going to be tough today for you all.  You will not win.  Even if right, you will be wrong for many.

Tough day to have your job, though...you did get to chase...that is always an adventure.

jeremy- have you thought about having a couple locations that are "official" readings to make everyone happy. i live about 45 minutes away from KCI and we are right in line with Gary's forecasts so far this month. Rainy and cooler.  I would say he is dead on but people will say "no" because of one location, even though it is clear in half the metro? It kind of goes along with this winter, down South we barely got snow but up north got tons, i would say the winter forecast was accurate even though i didnt come close to it.

Update from Topeka NWS:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=top&storyid=15324&source=0

C. on the surface..I have thought about your point many times.  Initially, I favored that approach..

But..in studying the forecasts, validation and consequent communication of accuracy..this is a very slippery slope.

Forecasts are always generally going to be close...but how close.  How far away to allow it to stray.  Too far, and the forecast is meaningless to the target audience.

I think if you don't have a single location, then you really can make any forecast verify.  Honestly.  I have been guilty myself of playing this card.

Having been called on it before, I don't do it anymore.  Pick one point and go with it.  It should be a representation over time and space of your DMA.  Sometimes you hit, sometimes you miss.  On average and over time...it should come out about right.

It eliminates the - "it was so close...c'mon", or "it was 30 miles away", or some of the other phases like "it was very complex and happened just to our east/west/north/south"

We see similar statements already with another topic here like this...and that topic does not either have a single point of reference.  [These sometimes stray hundreds of miles]

I understand the human side of it..and identify.  But from the verification, it is important to use one location.

We hear about most accurate via Weatherate.  They use one location.  If the results are endorsed here, so must the method.

One site.  KMCI.

Just my thoughts...

New SPC meso discussion backed right up to K.C. thru Missouri. Should see another one for eastern kansas soon.

So what is the thinking on the overall rain fall totals?

Darn, NOAA increased the rainfall in the Miami/Linn county areas to upto 2" for this evening. NO!!! I want a dryslot to come in!! It worked for the winter. Where is it hiding??? :)

I saw some wierd weather in the clouds this morning: when the tail of a t-shower ( apparently small) moved thru I saw the clouds suddenly get smushed forward bowing out in to a line that most windfronts have and it was clouds everywhere, in 30 sec half the sky was blue! That must of been a really strong wind! Byan.

Im curious to know as well Farmgirl. I didnt get to see the 11 news. Are we expecting heavy rains north of I-70 and South as well?

I havent posted for awhile so i have no idea what happen and I will not look back. Looking at the past is something that I cannot do.

The Tornados that hit K-State, The Boy scout camp and chapman are bad. Lots of destruction and it is sad that people had to die from these storms.

Anyway I am sad as well because many people are leaving due to others on here that cheer for severe weather. I havent seen it that much on the board so far. Its sad that people would leave the blog due to others rooting for severe weather.

Where is a good place to see expected rainfall amounts? Also, what are peoples thoughts on the meso discussion out right now???

*******************

I think Brett showed along and south of I-70 there would be 1-3"+.

Jeremy

I am confused by reading the tornado chances on the NWS convective map today.  There's no way to zoom in, is there?  Are we in the 5% or the 10%?

Hello all,
Been a while myself; trying to get the crops in without much success. In our neck of the woods (NE MO and WC IL), things are not looking good.  The Mississippi is starting its fast climb and will reach 1993 levels by next week.  Remember all the levees that burst in the first two weeks of July?  Expect the same thing next week.  Not a good situation.

were in 5 percent. The 10% ring doesnt even get close to KC.

Oh for Pete's sake, everyone chill out.  Some of you peeps are way too emotional.  If someone wants to leave, then so be it.  You don't have to make announcements on the blog that you are leaving and never coming back.  It's immature and screams "show me some attention".  Move on!

Jeremy, what are the rain chances for the Lenexa area?

So whats the deal with the forecasting now?  How much reliance is there on the models?  The weather doesn't exactly trend as the models are saying, or it doesn't seem to be to me.  Well, its not an exact science anyhow.  Its 90 here in McLouth, the humidity is crazy.  Bust this low cap and we could have some serious problems added today to last nights problems.

Mammatus - "Should see another one for eastern kansas soon."

Why?  Looking at the surface obs, the surface convergence is largely gone in this area and westward.

Also, with the residual outflow boundaries, the temps and wind shifts are washed out as well here and westward

While we will have a bit of convergence higher up, with the capping and lack of much focus..this looks like a rain event to me.  

Later on, there is that matter of the bit of vorticity showing up for a possible MCS.  I again, think it dives more south of the metro...grazing us, sure..but I think the majority of the rain will be S and E.

I have no doubts that parts of the viewing area will get upwards of 4 inches or more out of this rain event.  I am still pretty sure that those north of the metro will be teased once again.

I think I had under a half inch for the total rainfall from this storm for KMCI.  I think I am going to be close to hitting it...give or take a tenth of an inch.

We will see...

hey can we just stick to the weather please?  I dont want the comments blocked...

Question....the line of heavier rain that is going across the southern part of platte county, is that where the front is?  If so, is this where the storms will be later?
Becky

My brother just sent me this link to footage that was captured last night in Manhattan.  (I had to install QuickTime plug-in before I could view it.)  

http://www.ktka.com/videos/2008/jun/12/20217/?detectqt=false&

Kristi or Jeremy - do either ofyou have any estimate only of rain south of I70 towards Kingsville/Holden?  Our basement does have some problems and just wondered what sort of preparations we need to make.

I didn't read Jeri's post - but I'm sure it was justified.  It was early this morning when I first turnedon the news and heard about Chapman and the Boy Scouts.  Chapman was horrible, but when they said Boy Scouts had been killed, I just cried.  I've always liked the rumble of thunder and some lightening - but never tornados.  And I don't even know now, after this season, if I'm gonna enjoy a good thunderstorm any more without wondering, and being scared.

I'm thankful for this blog, and for everybody who posts on it - so please don't everyone get mad and just leave.  Some of us really do appreciate and NEED your opinions.  I know none of it is ironclad but it's a lot better to have an idea of what might happen, even if it doesn;'t.

I know Kristi that your tracking does help people get out of the way of imminent danger.  So please keep it up.  And thank you for your dedication.

Just had a hard rain here in at Maple Woods but I can see blue sky and white clouds again

HUMMERSEEKER:

Looks like a good estimate is 2+ inches for your area.  We are real close to you (Clinton).  Here is an updated link with approx. values.  Hope this helps!  Jim in Clinton    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=sgf

Well I think I meant to ask SimplyKristi not regular Kristi - I just now figured out there were two of you!  I'm so sorry!  Regular Kristi, you can answer too if you know - I just know SimplyKristi seems to be on top of things. I have this picture of you in my mind in the basement, with like ten computers all around you and you in a chair with wheelson it - zipping from one screen to another!  You seem so efficient!

This looks like not much for the metro area.

Thanks Jim in Clinton - I think our basement and barrels and buckets can handle that!  Laura

Jeremy, will you guys be on the air longer this evening just for rain, and tracking it?  Laura.

Question....the line of heavier rain that is going across the southern part of platte county, is that where the front is?  If so, is this where the storms will be later?
Becky

I think the heavier rain is south of the actual front- is that right?

HUMMERSEEKER:

If you ever need any questions answered or need any help figuring out what this weather is going to do, feel free to email me if I am not on the blog for some reason.  My email is subby64735@charter.net .  I do weather spot but lately, I have been with family around the house.  I am always following the weather with SWIFT and all local information.  Take care, Jim in Clinton.

As of 1:45PM, we had a brief shower. The dew point in Northern Shawnee is ridiculous. It's only 82 outside and it feels about ten degrees warmer. The front seems to have skated north of Leavenworth, meaning we could see severe thunderstorms fire later this afternoon along and south of the front. I don't see much of a tornado threat unless the sun comes out for a significant portion of time, then there could be problems. Whatever forms is going to drop EXTREMELY heavy rain, it feels like St. Martin outside.

Jim, can I email you with questions too?

LOL

Thanks Jim.  Do you know the Keens in Clinton?  

Thanks Jim in Clinton for the link to how much rain expected down here in Joplin.

To all the weather gurus here
Last night a tiny cell exploded into a line of devestating storms.  Tonight I have heard we will have a lot of rain.  I have not got to see the weather forecast and wondered if we will have a similar set up to last night or less since it is overcast today?  Thanks in advance Ann

Live coverage of the flooding/evacuation in Cedar Rapids
http://69.28.153.131:80/bcintmedia_kcrg_newstream1?MSWMExt=.asf

Ahhh...I love the NWS.

Here is a little nugget in today's forecast discussion that goes strongly with my thoughts/obs in yesterday's blog...

"AS PER DISC WITH
NEIGHBORS...PREVIOUS EVENTS HAVE DICTATED THE HEAVIER QPF AND STRONG
CONVECTION TNGT WILL LIKELY BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN EVEN THE MORE SRN
SOLUTION OF THE GFS."

The rest of the discussion is a good read for the precip thoughts...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

------------------

Scott,

The front is still northwest of the city.  I think it is still targeting along and near the front.  So, as long as the front is near you, then you can possibly be near the bullseye.

Gary

HUMMERSEEKER:

I do know one particular Keen here in Clinton.  He worked at the cheese plant for years until recently, he retired.  He belongs to the country club here in Clinton.  That is how I know him.  Is he a relative?

Nope Jim - It would be Mark and Kathy Keen - they moved to CLinton the same time my husband and I moved to Kingsville - we both worked at the same place at the time, and gave our notice!  They're a younger couple. Bought and now own Diehl Tire.

kcwxguy:

SURE!  LOL!  I follow along the blog daily but typically I only post when something nearby is happening.  I would be happy to help anybody out.  Just dont sell my email addy out to all the third parties out there!!  Ha HA!  Jim

Well the only time I really read on here is ifsomething's happening, or going to happen - I'm at work, and don't wanna get in trouble!  But if it's bad, I'll risk it.  

very heavy rain in leavenworth! close to an inch and half last night and now getting dumped on!

Will we see more tonight?

Yes, I have met Mark.  I was not sure what his last name was.  The manager there is the brother of a guy I work with here at Champion.  Jaeger Tire now I think....or something like that.

Tawn00

WOW, pretty amazing and scary...thanks for sharing.

Stacey

Gary and team,

The showers that are west of here.  Is there any chance of these going severe or are they just gooing to line up and train causing flooding concerns?  Thank you.

Kurt

Heavy rain here at work in LVN

you think we will get an update or a new blog soon?

KcWxguy, 2000-2500 Mu Cape's and Cravsig's around 80 in east central kansas. I would say surface heating is suffiecient to get some convection firing. I would have to think the SPC would have issued a meso disc for that area by now but maybe they are waiting for the cap to weaken a bit more. Looks like that are is getting primed but you would know more than me. Im learning though. The lifted index is getting very high and with the front bisecting that area and a weak surface low to the southwest, I would think we will some cells popping soon. What do you think?

Just saw the new Mesoscale Dis.  I guess that answers my question.

New meso

I just want to say a BIG THANK YOU AND GOD BLESS

to NBC action weather team!  You keep us informed which helps keep us safe!

We are blessed to have such a forunate group of people working on our behalf.

Thank you again!  I'll be tuning in!

Much love and prayers to you all!

LOL, right now there is a pretty heavy shower that looks to be less than 5 miles from KCI...but KCI itself is getting nothing.

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL AND NERN KS THROUGH NRN MO
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 121926Z - 122130Z
 
  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS NRN MO
  AND NERN KS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
  SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE
  HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
 
  A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN KS NEWD THROUGH NERN KS
  INTO NRN MO. A BAND OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR
  BELT HAS SLOWED DIABATIC HEATING. HOWEVER...CLOUD BREAKS ARE
  CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S.
  RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 2000-2500 J/KG
  OVER ERN KS TO 1500 J/KG OVER NRN MO. VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
  THROUGH BASE OF NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL GLANCE THIS REGION.
  TIMING OF DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
  HOWEVER...PERSISTENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING INHIBITION
  WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
  STORMS WILL LIKELY BACKBUILD SWWD ALONG FRONT DURING THE EVENING AS
  SECONDARY BRANCH OF SLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS OK AND SRN
  KS...ENHANCING LIFT ALONG BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WITH
  40-50 KT BULK SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...BUT SOME
  STORMS MIGHT ALSO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. SIZE OF 0-1 KM
  HODOGRAPHS WILL INCREASE BY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
 
  ..DIAL.. 06/12/2008

LOL, hows that for timing. Man I knew I should have applied for a job at the SPC. Kidding of course

new meso
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1340
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0226 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL AND NERN KS THROUGH NRN MO
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 121926Z - 122130Z
 
  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS NRN MO
  AND NERN KS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
  SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE
  HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
 
  A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN KS NEWD THROUGH NERN KS
  INTO NRN MO. A BAND OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR
  BELT HAS SLOWED DIABATIC HEATING. HOWEVER...CLOUD BREAKS ARE
  CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S.
  RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 2000-2500 J/KG
  OVER ERN KS TO 1500 J/KG OVER NRN MO. VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
  THROUGH BASE OF NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL GLANCE THIS REGION.
  TIMING OF DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
  HOWEVER...PERSISTENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING INHIBITION
  WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
  STORMS WILL LIKELY BACKBUILD SWWD ALONG FRONT DURING THE EVENING AS
  SECONDARY BRANCH OF SLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS OK AND SRN
  KS...ENHANCING LIFT ALONG BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WITH
  40-50 KT BULK SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...BUT SOME
  STORMS MIGHT ALSO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. SIZE OF 0-1 KM
  HODOGRAPHS WILL INCREASE BY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
 

""kcwxguy said:
Mammatus - "Should see another one for eastern Kansas soon."

Why?  Looking at the surface obs, the surface convergence is largely gone in this area and westward. ""

Scott,
Being a little quick to judge today are we? Lol, anyway, there is a new MD for eastern Kansas and western Missouri now. With the threats they are highlighting, it looks like it will be a tornado watch, I think. I'm not the SPC thought, so I don't know for sure what it will be, but they say Watch Likely.

David

I am in no way arrogant but I swear I never saw the meso discussion and walla, there it is. Damn im good...Hee hee. I guess I can read those darn weather maps a little better than I thought. Now if i would have went to school to be a meteorologist, I would be in business...LOL

Scott, just give me 1 Kudo for that.
KcWxguy, 2000-2500 Mu Cape's and Cravsig's around 80 in east central kansas. I would say surface heating is suffiecient to get some convection firing. I would have to think the SPC would have issued a meso disc for that area by now but maybe they are waiting for the cap to weaken a bit more. Looks like that are is getting primed but you would know more than me. Im learning though. The lifted index is getting very high and with the front bisecting that area and a weak surface low to the southwest, I would think we will some cells popping soon. What do you think?
June 12, 2008 2:31 PM

Gary - the front is so washed right now, its hard to really see it..I think.  Earlier, it bisected the metro..now it is a bit further north again.

Darn thing keeps wiggling.  LOL

I am using obs from past events and gut feeling on this.  I may in the end be very wrong, but..as you know...this is how you learn..and never do stop learning.

We will see what happens.

Mammatus - you identified several features needed for convection, but it gets very tricky when the surface convergence is not very strong.  Ask Gary about how I had my whetever handed to me when I missed the surface features in my analysis.

The meso is interesting..but wonder how much this is really foreshadowing later today then right now.  Sure, its possible to get thunderstorms today...

But inches of rain over a wide spread area?  Not localized inches, but widespread inches?

Perhaps this is an event where the 850 fronto is enough to pop the convection.  I thought that a time before and got burned.  Perhaps I get burned again overcompensating.

I will see at the end if my half inch or less at KMCI holds.

I agree with Stacey, the video really shows the dedication of the weather forecasters at the news stations. Here they have friends and I am sure family in the target areas that have been hit by the tornado, but they are still on the air letting people know what is going on and warning them. My hats off to them for their professionalism. Personally I liked thunderstorms back in California. They did not scare me at all. I used to sit outside and watch them. Here in Missouri, totally different story, I might watch out the window and I constantly worry something will happen. I do go out and "chase" thunderstorms occusionally, but usually when they are past us and we can safely watch the show.
Audra in Lee's Summit

Not quick to judge at all...I gave my thoughts based on what I saw.  When its over, and if wrong...you should know I will be the first to admit it.

Short of that, have no fear or reservations...my thoughts and comments flow like water.

And point be known, I debated the analysis, and did not judge the presenter.

;-)

Scott, I am still learning and I know the all the features need to come together to develop severe thunderstorms. I would imagine it will hold off till a bit later but the line north of K.C is intensifying so we will see what develops to the west/southwest of that. By the time the low lever hodo's increase later, the threat may be south of us, but then again, they could be right on us. Guess we will see what the current convection does to the atmosphere or if that line will indeed go severe.

Gary, Jeremy, Mark I need you to educate me on MCD #1340.  I see the discussion there and understand there is a lot of instability going on.  Even if I didn't understand it I can see and feel it just by going outside or watching the air in my a/c house fluctuate in temp and humidity.  So where and when might a watch be released?  The sun here in Jefferson County is in and out, the temp is 91, dewpoint is 70.9, humidity is 82%.

Thats what is cool about this blog, we all learn something from the people posting here and frankly, I just love talking about weather.

Thanks for the help everybody:)  I guess I should have been a little more specific huh? I am going to Little Basket Lake which is 45 miles away from the nearest "town". This is located in Ontario, about 156 miles NE of International Falls. The problem with getting the forecast is that the are I will be at is so isolated and the weather contrasts greatly every few miles. Last year, on the way through southern Ontario, it was 80 degrees in one town, while it was 65 degrees in another! There had been no storms or any clouds! The weather was very confusing.

I wanted to address somthing earier in this blog that pissed some chick off.  Let's get something straight here, and be honest with ourselves. If you’re a storm chaser like I am, then you are dissapointed when there is no severe weather. Chasing is a lot of driving, plotting and planning. After all the work and there is no major storm to photograph or shoot on video, no beautiful lightneing, no cool cloud formations, no hail, no high wind and yes, most importanly , no tornados,  which is the ultimate hunt, then yes you are very disapointed.  For those of you who can't figure this out, it's the thrill of the chase.  You invest your knowledge, gear and time into a very very unpredictible force. It does not always work out. It's easy to become frustrated and pissed off cause that's 5 hours you will never get back. That’s why you hear people venting in here and why there is dissapointment. It should not take a genuis to figure that out.  For those of you who have never seen a tornado, it is one of the most incredible and exhilirating expereices you can have. It's also beautiful violent and unpredictible. That's what makes it so facinating. Have you ever seen a wedge tear through the countryside? Have you ever seen a rope rip appart an old barn? Not very many have.  It's amazing. And until you have had that experience, you will never understand.  So because you don't understand the "thrill of the hunt, because you do't understand the dissapointment, then do two things.  Try to understand, or keep your mouth shut. It's that simple.

If your not a storm chaser, and you happen to be someone who loves the excitement of severe weather, then that's cool to.  There is nothing wrong with that. The previous person who made the disclaimer,"as long as nobody is hurt"  was good enough.  The problem is that there are too many people in society and in here who are ultra sensitive about stuff, it's like high school all over again.  I don't think there is anyone that wants "innocent people we don't know", to be killed or hurt or their houses blown away.  

There are too many wanna be forcasters, know it alls, and those who walk on eggshells in here.  Personally I am not some anti social weirdos, setting at home in my mothers basement trying to be Jr. Forcaster of the month, nor am I some women with 10 cats at home with nothing better to do than look are weather all day, play in chat rooms and webcams.  I actually have a life and a job. Weather and stormchasing has been a hobby for over 12 years for me. So for those of you who have never done any field work, and just live in front of your PC all day playing armchair forcaster, get a life.  Being knowlegable about the weather and all it's pattens is more than sitting in front of your computer and looking at all the maps and memorizing all the terms.  Althought your engineering pals might be impressed it does not impress me. And furthermore it confuses the regular folks who come in here to stay informed and pick up some knowledge.  And most importantly stop being too quick to judge others in here. Everyone is intitled to their opinions, no matter how messed up they are. Try to learn from them and listen, instead of judging. I am very aware that I am not liked by anyone in here. And after posting this blog, you will hear people cut me down, discredit me and take jabs at me.  But you don't know who is on the other end of that keyboard, you if you spend less time trying to rip them up and spend more time asking them questions without sarcasim and try to understand their point of view, everyone would get along just fine.

By the way it is 82.9 degrees at the Lee's Summit airport with a humidity of 66%. It has been sunny for a few hours now and is muggy. We also have a SSW sustained wind of 17 mph with gusts up to 25 mpg. I figure I will let people know what is going on here so they can plug the figures into their weather formulas.
Audra

I would say a watch will be issued very soon. Convection is firing rapidly west of us and to the south.

Audra & Stacey - You're right!  That video was scary and amazing!  My family lives in Manhattan and I'm so thankful they weren't directly affected.  I love to "watch" the weather and follow the blog when I can.  Weather is facinating!  I'm amazed and, at times,  frightened by it's power.  Kuddos to all the meterologists and newspeople who do an amazing job to bring us the best information they can to help keep us safe!

Looks like the threat might actually be within the next couple of hours if I am reading the msd correctly?

I was just remarking to my husband that we never seem to have afternoon thunderstorms anymore.  Seems like all the severe weather events are always after dark.

Brian1234. I chase whenever there is severe weather and photograph Severe Storms/Tornadoe's so I hope none of that was directed towards me for my comical view on getting the Meso discussion right.

Why is there two mesoscales for kansas????

Tawn00, that is amazing footage. My parents are big KSU grad's.

Im guessing not. Anyways, The storms to the northwest are really getting their act together.

brian1234

Well said, I have nothing to add.  Question for you, do you have a Stormspotternet id so I can track your travels?


Tornado Watch #514 until 10PM

Tornado watch just issues for most of the metro area until 10:00 p.m.

HUMMERSEEKER:
Tornado watch for our area until 10pm

I hate this weather... :(:(:(

Good call Mammatus,  there's your tornado watch,. !!

My weather radio just went off with a tornado watch....Alex

davidmcg, nope I don't have an ID, I'm not that formal, I'm more of a bounty hunter... but if you must give me one, you can call me Boba Fett,..lol  

Brian1234...well said with the "high school" / spotter comments.... sometimes I find myself in disagreement with you, but today I agree with your analysis.  "If your not a storm chaser, and you happen to be someone who loves the excitement of severe weather, then that's cool to." that's me. I'd love to chase someday. My wife hates it when I go outside to look at the clouds/formations.

btw here is some footage from last tuesdays events. I sped it up 4x so it's really jumpy, but the rotation / clouds were awesome.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=wUOLX-FK7MQ

Jereme

ThanksJim - I'm just reading all this and trying not to get a stomachache!

tornado watch issued a few minutes ago, it feels very muggy in clay county

Lorie - my hubby and I are KSU grads too.  ;)  My kids would like to go to K-State when they are old enough, but since we live in MO. . . that's out-of-state tuition!!!   Maybe they can live with Grandpa.  :)

Well said Brian1234.  

Still light showers up in St. Joe.

Scott,
I was joking of course, but it does look like Mammatus was right on this one. :)
Will be interesting to see if anything really gets going today. It sure is hot and humid, that's for sure,

David

Well the Tornado chasers have already sent me an alert that they're in chase mode out in central Kansas and just south of Topeka.  Don't know about you guys and gals, but generally these chasers don't just drive around for the fun of it, unless they have a good feeling they'll be seeing a tornado.  So get ready, we could have another outbreak closer to home!

http://www.tornadovideos.net/index.cfm/do/s.LiveTracker

thanks vdomanz, I have to admit, for the past several months, I've been going through some pretty serious stuff. So I do appologize.  As for the chase, sure I'm game, and if we don't get any good stuff, you cal just listen to me complain like I have done in here,..lol

The weather's just been way too depressing, lately.  I really hope we all can get out of this pattern soon, because I don't think I can handle hearing and seeing all of the destruction and death all around... I cried for the boy scout camp.  I really did.

I hope you and Sean came out of it well, Jeremy.


-Nicole

Sometimes I wish I didn't have a good job, today would have been a great day in the field!!  

We're thinking of heading to Pomme de Terre around 5 o'cloc, (just south of Clinton, Mo.). Is the system heading in that direction?

My two cents I think you will be fine.  St. Clair County and Hickory County are not included in the tornado watch as of yet.  You should stay ahead of it.  Jim in Clinton

Near 76th and N. Troost in Northern Gladstone, I have had .6 in from midnight to 3:00 PM today.

Mike in Gladstone

HAHA...Brian, while I am not sure if your post will last, I will make a quick comment.

I find it oxymoronic that you would have your rant, but follow up with

"And most importantly stop being too quick to judge others in here. Everyone is intitled to their opinions"

While I understand the broad nature of your rant, and agree to some parts, I find it very curious of two things.

1.  That you would have such a strong opinion and enough of a concern to put it all into words.  Clearly, you make a mochery of the opinions on this blog and often incite the passion of those you reference above.  For that, your actions are no different than those folks mentioned in your rant above.

2.  Because one is a spotter or chaser, does not breed any further credibility for what is happening.  Having spotted and chased myself for years, I find more clowns in the middle of corn fields chasing mammatus clouds than anything.

Having been through many spotting courses and observing the great diversity of what is taught, even some that have "training" couldn't tell you a stratus from a cirrus.

That said, your thoughts are valid to the extent of how people hang on to every thought presented as truth.  I am the first to admit that my analysis sometimes stinks.  I miss badly some times.  I believe you would hear from any met that they have blown a forecast or analysis.


I find your snobbery amusing.  That said, aside from the approach, I certainly can agree with your thoughts on chasing and the frustration of coming back empty handed.  I would think you understanding this frustration would be sufficient for you to understand those who do come back and do the homework on radar, maps, and other tools to ensure they are more successful the next time out.

But then again, if you can't learn from past mistakes..you are doomed to relive them.

;-)

NBC weather at 11:00 a.m. put us under the slight risk for severe weather today...so why are we now under a tornado watch?  What exactly changed since then?  And as I mentioned on an earlier blog...it's Thursday again and here we go with another severe weather watch...

Jim, do you think it will eventually make it down there? Like middle of the night timeframe?

From what I read from the mds (course I could have interpretted it wrong) I thought this was going to be another northern MO event, but tornado watch extends pretty far south.  I am in it here in Cass.  

John Madden: Footballll!!!!!!!!



Anyway. Now they raised olathe severe threat to 70% on the nWs site and now say that a few tornadoes are possible in the metro area.

A good line of showers and t-showers has formed, new blog please!

brian1234 ~

115% agreement.  I find the honesty quite refreshing.  

Everyone has a right to post there thoughts even if it is something you do not agree with or think is right. Period!  

kcwxguy ~

i find your finding snobbery amusing amusing. :-0

j/k

I have been reading the blog for awhile now and I am very disappointed in certain peoples actions / words etc...

I wish we could just focus on the matter at hand: THE WEATHER!!!! Who cares who is making who mad etc....this sounds like an online soap opera special.  Knock it off.  Life is too short for this petty finger pointing and rants and raves.  If you want to do that, I will go and call Dr. Phil for you.  

Thunder to the east of St. Joseph...no lighting, though here in town.  Looks like a rough evening ahead possibly.  

Brian in not so stormy St. Joseph (YET)

Based on the current LRC, can you make a fourth of july evening from ohh say between, 7:00 and midnight? Thanks, juba!

Where do you guys find where the NWS is saying 70% chance for severe?  Is there a particular site you all use?

As a newer person it's kinda hard to keep up & figure out where you're getting your info from.

So should anyone care to share some links I'd love to have them! lol

Don't fret, Brian1234.  I like you.

Silly question:  I noticed that last nights Tornado watch was #512, and today's is #514?  Are these done in numerical order?  Does that mean that (countrywide) there's been 514 watches this year?

Good afternoon everybody!!!

Well, I have to admit: I have been wavering on this thing all day-just like a sunflower on a Kansas windy day!!! Being trained in historical research and being trained to argue I point, I should know better-very emabarassing to be honest!!!

Oh well-on the 20Z surface charts it appears that the front is currently locted right on top of Atchison and then extends back to just North of Topeka. I think-a big huge think here that the 18Z RUC has miss initialized the front somewhat and that it is a bit north of where it has it progged. I think???

The storms I am kind of watching are the ones just now getting thier acts together SW of Topeka-those are developing in the area that has seen the greatest heating and further from the front-will be interesting to see how they go in the next hour. Things for sure are not popping as rapidly as yesterday at this time but those cells SW of Topeka I feel are worth watching.

Just some random observations from a History/Latin teacher!!

Bill in Lawrence

altheasus,

Yes, they do them in numerical order, and there have been 514 tornado watches, in total, so far.

It's madness.

NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!!!

o the joy of freedom of speech. lol.................. Who thinks my total of .9 inches of rain at KCI will verify? Wasnt it around .24 this morning?

Chase- go to www.weather.gov

Funny Altheasus!  I was wondering that too -- but was too chicken to ask!  Thanks for not being chicken!  Laura.

angvic, nothing has changed. it is quite common to go from 'slight' risk to a watch. slight risk doesn't mean no risk...and a watch doesn't mean that the risk is all that high.

Chase: all "official" NWS severe information comes from www.spc.noaa.gov

Brian1234- The best part of this site is that with the exception of using other mets names and stations (which is absolutely reasonable) we are free to say what we want.  That is the best part.  I am a nurse and know very little about the particulars of weather except some personal experiences.  Anyway I learn from everyone on here.  There is of course the weather team and people like Scott and Kristy who seem to know alot and are very helpful in helping me learn more.  Anyway I hope that for everyone who is fortunate enough to chase today, that they stay safe and see lots of action.  I will for one be very excitedly looking at the sky hoping for some exciting weather!

People, people, people, can't we all just get along?  Is this what happens when you are passionate/obsessive about the weather?  No watches or warnings yet for the Truman/Lake of the Ozarks area yet.  Anyone know if we might be placed under one?  We have a big festival this weekend starting tonight, so hope the weather holds.

Here is the link to the page to view the probabilities.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0514_prob.html

(Hope the link works)

T.


Here is the link to the page to view the probabilities for watch #514.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0514_prob.html

(Hope the link works)

T.

Chase- on the left- click on the overview link... that will take you to the main SPC Prediction Page- you will be able to "cruise" around there and look around...
Hope that helps-

First Tornado Warnings coming out northeat of the Metro