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A colder weather pattern setting up

Good morning bloggers,

It's Friday, and I will be at the new Land of Paws from 1 PM to 2 PM today.  Come by their grand opening and say hello.  Stormy will be with me and I will sign autographed pictures of Stormy, Breezy, and myself.  We hope to see you there for lunch with Stormy today!

Stephanie Watson, an NBC Action News viewer, took this picture of her dinner party at Ft. Leavenworth last night, when the tornado warnings were issued for Leavenworth county.  As you can see she captured the moment with the tornado, as shown live last night:

 

Severe weather season, as we have known it, has just had a finale! There will likely be more severe weather, but in different ways, as I will explain belwow.  We have had an amazingly crazy severe weather season, and it ended with a bang last night with small tornadoes touching down near Linwood, from just south and just north of the Kansas River.  These were likely EF0 and EF1 type tornadoes as we showed them developing live on the air around 8 PM last night. 

We are in the same weather pattern that set up last October and early November, according to my theory (the LRC).  And, it is about to slip back into the colder part of the LRC.  Summer begins in one week, but don't be shocked if the next two weeks have some pretty strong cold fronts for this time of the year.  Look below at the forecast map valid Sunday night:

 

We are going into northwest flow, and even though there will be chances for strong to severe thunderstorms, what we have seen lately is likely over for the season, and right on schedule.  Severe weather season usually ends and summer settles in by mid-June.  But, with this weather pattern, there will likely be many more chances for some thunderstorms this month.  They will just be a bit different as they come in from the north and northwest, rather than from the southwest as we have seen in the past few weeks.  A block is developing (I point to a developing upper high over Canada) which will likely lead to some cooler air next week, and some set-ups for northwest flow thunderstorms.

Have a great day!  Hopefully Stormy & I will see you for lunch at Land of Paws at Briarcliff north today.

Gary

Published Friday, June 13, 2008 5:45 AM by glezak

Comments

 

tirzah2 said:

What a noisy night it was!!  Got about 5 hours sleep, thanks Mother Nature!!  

My rain gauge had 1.75" in it this morning.   Only off by half of what I guessed. :)

Laura in Raytown
June 13, 2008 6:52 AM
 

sertorius said:

Good coolish for June morning to all of you!! How are you guys holding up?? Man you have had quite a time-kind of like the kids returning from Narnia huh??LOL

I received a total of 1 ½ inches here in SW Lawrence from the whole event-Wednesday night and Thursday-pretty far cry from my 2 plus I predicted for Lawrence!! Not real proud of myself (not that I know enough to really make forecast anyway LOL) in that in the depths of my gut I really thought that the line would sag south of Lawrence pretty quickly and we would not get the training here. Since October, these fronts have cleared Lawrence and for the Spring we have done well on the initial convection but then it all sags south. I should have gone with that when I made the prediction-it was one of my points (point 3) on my reasoning. I just thought that this time being this late in the year, the front may have stayed around here a bit longer and I also thought the line was going to be a bit wider than it was. Oh well-should have gone with the LRC huh??!!! However the main thing I am mad at myself about with this is how I wavered back and forth yesterday and did not stick to my guns and just go with it-as a history teacher I have been trained to make a point and argue it or in better terms I should have stuck to my guns at least until things fired but no, I wavered back and forth all day yesterday. Live and learn eh!!!!

In the end, we got some rain-not too much but enough to keep things green and going but too much for the farmers here as the fields in the bottoms are a mess. Plus, a lot of water was dumped into the Kansas and Mard. River basins last night not to mention the Wakie-we do need to dry out somewhat but the damage may already be done.

The best part of last night was watching the wall cloud/funnel in NW Lawrence from my deck with my boys. It was well north of us so we were not in any danger but we got a great look at it over the Clinton Parkway Nursery at 23rd and Wakarusa. We also got to see a great rainbow-awesome night of weather education for my boys!!! That is priceless!!

I have said this a million times, but will say it again-you guys rock rock and rock and yes, you are all TIGHT!!!! Awesome job last night on the coverage. Get some rest-you all deserve it!! I am back out to the cabin this weekend and will be there for most of the time over the next 5-6 weeks-no running water but electricity-man is it awesome!!!!

Have a great and fantastic day and as always, thanks for reading my way too long diatribes and providing  a great place to learn and discuss the weather!!

Bill in Lawrence

------------------

Bill,

I know you blogged the other night, sorry I didn't have a chance to respond.  Can you believe this weather pattern?  It has been producing some absolutely horrible weather.  I am sorry, but tornadoes are the worst of the worst when it comes to weather.  The flooding in Iowa is just incredible.  And, we aren't done with this pattern yet.  It will be quite fascinating to see the summer version of the LRC unfold during the next two weeks.

Have a fantastic day!

Gary

June 13, 2008 7:05 AM
 

juba said:

I've gotta question, was your guess of 3-4" of rain correct?

--------------

The thunderstorms slid slowly southward, so we avoided a serious flooding problem.  A few spots had over 2 inches, but I doubt there were 3 to 4 inch amoutns for our area.  The MCS formed farther south, which has been the trend this month.

Gary

June 13, 2008 7:05 AM
 

samhiguchi said:

I don't know the exact rain total here in south Olathe, all I can tell you is my roses have developed a fungus and we are growing a nice crop of mushrooms in the back yard....
BTW thanks for the wonderful coverage you guys give, if you can keep a storm freak like me calm, then you must be doing something right!  Now if you could just send us a little dryer weather!
June 13, 2008 7:30 AM
 

sedsinkc said:

Gary, what was the official total rain at KCI since you issued your challenge to the bloggers to guess the rainfall total for this event?  From the NWS website, the total I came up with at KCI is 0.83".  There was 0.25" total yesterday morning, and 0.58" last night.  There might be a few more light showers at the airport before it's completely over this morning.

At my house near Vivion and Davidson, we had a total of 1.33" since Wed. night.
June 13, 2008 7:37 AM
 

kellyc said:

Gary- Early in the evening (I think it was during the 6pm newscast) you showed some sort of ...something cloud-like...swirling on the ground (looking from SkyTracker).  Did you decide that wasn't a tornado?  And where was that?
June 13, 2008 7:38 AM
 

Eswar said:

.67 inches of rain at 151st and Mur-Len in Olathe.
June 13, 2008 7:40 AM
 

sedsinkc said:

My prediction for KCI for this event was 0.82".  But almost doesn't count except with horseshoes and hand grenades.
June 13, 2008 7:40 AM
 

davidmcg said:

Gary you should see the fog up here in McLouth this morning, visibility down to less than 100 feet at times.  A serious thermal layer coupled with all the moisture have left us looking like San Fransisco or Seattle this morning.  We only got 0.50" of rain out of that last night, no hail, no wind.  The town of McLouth just 3miles SE of us had 65mph winds, golf ball size hail.  Lots of tree and power line damage.  Parts of the town of Perry flooded and 24 highway just east of Perry was flooded and closed for a while.  Your forecast of most of the severe weather season being over is a grateful forecast for all.  Two weeks of cooler average temps leading up to Independence Day sounds good, what about precip prediction?  Are you sticking to that prediction you made just before Memorial Day?
June 13, 2008 7:43 AM
 

davidmcg said:

Forgot one thing.  That meso developing south over the Marais Decygne and Ozark Valley was another lucky strike for us and a bad one for them.  For all of us it could have been much worse had it formed over south Nebraska or Iowa.  All that water must go downstream.  Cedar Rapids is a mess and Leavenworth is trying to be.  Who is next?  Parkville, Riverside, Sibley?
June 13, 2008 7:46 AM
 

homerun said:

Good morning Gary---again being a life long Kansan---this had been a pretty intense severe weather season--Last night about 5:30 that wall-cloud with rotation went right over our sub-division in Berryton---pretty interesting but scary!  Before I went down to the basement I glanced once more from the front porch and the lightning was very fierce and the thunder had a different sharp crack to it----we received 1.9 inches yesterday------The cooler weather will be welcomed-----Take care, Michael/Berryton/Topeka
June 13, 2008 7:48 AM
 

sedsinkc said:

Time for me to catch some z's.  Have a good day, y'all.
June 13, 2008 7:54 AM
 

nastyweather said:

Well Gary that sure was something special to experience last night with SkyTracker getting a live shot of that Tornado touchdown.  My wife and I watched in awe and then seeing the transformers explode on the ground.  Wow that isn't something the average TV viewer can experience.  Thankfully no injuries or major damage.

Speaking of the LRC, I found this quote from Harold Brooks, research meteorologist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory very interesting:
“The atmosphere has just been stuck in a really favorable pattern,” Brooks said.

That's crazy talk, there's no such thing as weather patterns or dare I say cycles, LOL

http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/story/662054.html
June 13, 2008 7:57 AM
 

sheldan said:

I got caught between Harrisonville and Lee's Summit last night.  Never have a seen a lightening display like I did last night.  It was incredible.  Nonstop the whole time.  It was beautiful, amazing and a little scary.  It was around 1100-1130.  Hope everyone has a quiet and peaceful weekend!
June 13, 2008 8:04 AM
 

pilotskcx said:

Gary and Crew,

We were at KCI picking another rider/chaser up when someone reported a TVS around the KCI area (as it was phoned into me).  We came in from FT LV. area.  This was also the same time as the Desota Funnel was being filmed by SkyTracker.

I called the station for the KCI report and told them it was 'not' observable by us from I-29/KCI.  We had no roation or debris.  Just heavy precip and wind.

We had no shear sig on that cell either.

We then headed for the 45 and 152 HWY's which was probably just North (10 miles or so) of where Jeremy was.

Looking at the vids from Skytracker it would probably be next to impossible for a ground chaser to get a good view of these kinds of TVS's with them going up and down so fast, unless you're just in the right position at the right time and in the right light--hehe.  They seemed really rain wrapped.  

Great job to Skytracker and I bow to jeremy for getting footage from the ground on the Desoto Funnel!

--------------

It really was amazing watching how fast the funnel would come down to the ground, touchdown, and then rapidly go back up.  I will be analyzing the video later and showing it on the air tonight.

Gary

June 13, 2008 8:05 AM
 

xlr8tn4fun said:

Well, I hope it's going to dry out for a while, we had .97" in the rain gauge this morning in Lee's Summit
June 13, 2008 8:06 AM
 

goodlife said:

1"  323rd & hwy 7 between Garden City and Creighton.
June 13, 2008 8:18 AM
 

bewild79 said:

Well Gary, what an interesting night.  I have NEVER seen a tornado, even on tv, spin up that quick and then just be gone that quick.  It was exciting, yet scarey.  You all did great coverage last night.  Thankfully we didn't see any spin ups where i was.  Just some hail and lots of rain.  My step son was also very amazed by that tornado forming live.  Then the lightning display last night, holy cow, I have not seen lightning like that before.  I sat outside for an hour watching it.
Well, again, thank you for the wonderful coverage and accuracy!
Becky

-------------

Becky,

Thanks for the kind words!  Have a great weekend.

Gary

June 13, 2008 8:23 AM
 

Suburban Sam said:

Good Morning Bloggers!

Just got our power restored here at Children International. A car went off the road last night and took out a power pole, a big Thanks to the KCPL guys who risked life and limb working in the rain and lightning to get the power restored. A thankless job but we appreciate their hard work.

1" of rain at my house yesterday/last night at 95th and Bannister....

Keep up the good work Gary... the LRC rocks!

Sam
June 13, 2008 8:29 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

Gary - good call on the pattern, about time, huh?

"The MCS formed farther south, which has been the trend this month."  Indeed.

Seds, thanks for the total at KMCI.  While I was a bit low, and not as close as you, I was within half an inch.  

Most of the rain did go south, as the LRC has shown all year.  I don't mind missing on the low side within half an inch when the forecast was being described as inches of rain.

The models really overdid the rainfall along the stalled front over too great of an area.  Typical.  This time of year, models struggle with this step up.  Convective feedback is tough to get away from when the setup looked so prime.

As I have done earlier this year, I threw out the models and trusted the LRC.

Maybe it will catch on, huh?

;-)

-------------

:-)  Thanks Scott, you get your little dig in there don't you.  LOL  The models didn't do that bad with the rainfall forecast.  It was close to producing the 2 to 3 inch rainfall that they forecasted, but the line just slid fast enough to prevent then training echoes from developing.

And, now, yes, it is onto NW flow as the pattern should be, right on schedule.  Simply amazing.

Gary

June 13, 2008 8:31 AM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

I thought through much of the winter, the big "tag" of the cycling theory was that precip was heavier to the NORTH - like the big pre-Christmas snowstorm that buried Topeka to St. Joe and others that left those areas with above-average snowfall...it seemed then the big line was "just like the theory says, the heaviest of the snow is just north of the metro" but now the same theory says the precip stays south?!?

-----------------

Notes,

Yes, but that was during the winter.  The same pattern often produces different specific results at the surface, and since we moved into spring, the trend has been for the MCS activity to be closer to the Oklahoma border.  And, if you look back at the winter, the heaviest precipitation events were also to our south.  So, this still fits the winter pattern in so many respects.

Now it is onto NW flow. There will have to be some unique set-ups for MCS activity to track southeast through plains in the next two weeks.  This will be something that couldn't happen the last time we were in this part of the pattern. There wasn't Gulf of Mexico air in place then, but there is now.  So, the next two to three weeks will be fun to watch.  Hopefully it will miss Iowa and Wisconsin, but given the LRC I would think evenutually they will be back into the heavy rain increasing the flooding that already is extreme.

Gary

June 13, 2008 8:42 AM
 

frigate said:

Quite an electrical storm last night at my house. .92 in SW Grain Valley.

Jeff
June 13, 2008 8:50 AM
 

MollyFaith said:

Thanks for the GREAT coverage!!

My son is going to KU basketball camp this Sunday thru Thursday and spending the night...will the rain you are forecasting be severe?

Thanks!

------------------

There may be some severe weather, but not quite like what we have seen.

Gary

June 13, 2008 8:52 AM
 

VdoManZ said:

Gary, great coverage last night on the news. the live shots of the tornado were awesome! The speed of the funnel clouds going up and down only .75 in SE Lee's Summit
June 13, 2008 8:54 AM
 

Hamons Custom Landscaping said:

1.8 inches  here at the World Headquarters of Hamons Custom Landscaping (95th and Antioch)

----------------------

You must have had a few repeating cells at the Universe headquarters of Hamons Custom Landscaping!

Gary

June 13, 2008 8:56 AM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

Gary,

I'm really not trying to be difficult here, but I see a lot of lines today like "And, now, yes, it is onto NW flow as the pattern should be, right on schedule."  If that is indeed the case, why wasn't this forecast before the models caught on to it?  Why isn't this something that could have been mentioned a couple of weeks ago ... or a month ago?

It seems like credit is given to this cycling theory over and over again once things begin to develop in a way that you see as being repetitive, but for the last couple of months, it is often only done in hindsight.  

It seems like when things line up in a way that seem to repeat, "wow- this is right on schedule" but if there are things that are called out as being different, the trump card of "well, the cycle is weakening in the summer - right on schedule!" is used, to the extent that any possible forecast can be made to either match the cycle, or be ignored as a result of a retreating jet, a weakening cycle, masked by summer heights, etc...

-----------------

Notes,

Just because I didn't quite go crazy about it in the blog, does not mean I haven't been thinking that this would happen right about now.  I have!  As we go into next years weather pattern in October and November, I will be braver and stronger in my statements about the parts of the weather pattern I am most confident in.  You know during the winter I did do this, but as the flow gets so weak, and it will continue to weaken in the next three weeks, I always wonder what the summer version of the pattern will bring.   But, this developing feature was completely predictable months ago!  This was the reason I made the cool and wet forecast, as broad and general as it was.  More specifics are possible.  So, let's keep watching and learning.

Did you catch the tornado developing live, as we showed it on NBC last night?  That was fascinating.

Gary

June 13, 2008 8:56 AM
 

woofwoof said:

Good morning all, we had 1.31" of rain in Raytown from last night's storm.
June 13, 2008 8:57 AM
 

momof3 said:

Again I wanted to say that your coverage was awesome.  My kids were all watching you when the tornado formed on t.v.  They were awestruck.  Very exciting to see them so enthusiastic about the weather and all.  Have a great day and looking forward to more rain sunday into monday!

----------------

Say hi to the kids.  Now, no more tornadoes!

Gary

June 13, 2008 9:03 AM
 

marlina10 said:

My rain gauge showed 1.45" in Lenexa this morning. I remember times when it's been rare to see an inch in the rain gauge, but this spring that just seems to be the norm each time it rains.
June 13, 2008 9:06 AM
 

MikeB said:

Gary,  

Any chance of getting video of the touchdown (and some of the other awesome footage from skytracker) posted at NBCActionnews.com?  Would love to see the broadcast, but for some of us poor saps stuck in a office, it just won't work.

Kudos to you and your team for a good job of covering the storm.

June 13, 2008 9:13 AM
 

MCSev said:

We had 1.9 inches yesterday (June 12th) during the day.  At 6 pm I drained the rain gauges.  Got another full inch last night.

Total:  2.9 inches in the past 24 hours!

4 miles west of Leavenworth, Kansas
June 13, 2008 9:20 AM
 

boootz said:

I dumped my rain gage at 6:12 pm...1.25" This morning I have another .5" 3 miles west of Leavenworth. We narrowly escaped all that rain, Thank Goodness
June 13, 2008 9:36 AM
 

bellgolf08 said:

1.22 inches in sedalia
June 13, 2008 9:44 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

Notes – you have concerns about noting this upcoming pattern is right on schedule.  And on the surface, it does seem often that it is communicated in a revisionist history tone.

This time, I have to make a point.  I have data indicating he had seen this coming earlier, while perhaps not communicating to everyone else.  Based on his approval, I will share it as it was in an email.

Aside from this, I have seen this part coming for quite some time.  I know you don’t read every post I make or every blog entry I submit, but I have the link below talking about the NW flow as it relates within the pattern.  It was submitted on January 13th.

http://kcwx.blogspot.com/2008/01/long-range-forecast-based-on-surface.html

Is that enough lead time?  LOL

For the purpose of this point, you can skip over the ending forecasts should you choose, but the heart of the blog shows characteristics and a rough timeline for when this should be expected.

Perhaps we can take further discussion offline in your or my sites to further discuss should you be so inclined.

This part of the pattern has been expected..but as you are aware as a met…not every thought about an upcoming forecast is communicated to the public weeks or months before it happens as there is variability that – no doubt – could put a fly in the ointment on exact timing.

Should that occur, many would be the first to object if something didn’t happen just as communicated.  I can appreciate the prudence at times with this approach…I think you probably do as well.

;-)
June 13, 2008 10:19 AM
 

homemom said:

will this humidity ever end??
June 13, 2008 10:28 AM
 

Braysmama said:

I am so glad we didn't get no 3 or 4 inches of rain. We don't need it!! Checked the rain gauge and had .80 in it at my house southwest of Kingsville.
June 13, 2008 10:32 AM
 

kcbrett82 said:

1.1" of rain last night at I35 and Brighton in the Northland.
June 13, 2008 10:34 AM
 

whirlygirl said:

I thought summer was about humidity here?
June 13, 2008 10:47 AM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

FYI:  Another ragged roll cloud is heading roughly toward KC at this hour.  It is a similar setup as the one from Monday morning:  following strong overnight convection, on the back side of the cloud deck.  I photographed this one too (haven't put those photos online yet), but it is not nearly as photogenic as the one from monday.  

If it holds together over the next 30 minutes, those of in in/around KC looking west should get a glimpse.

Monday photos:
http://www.notesinthemargin.com/gallery/main.php?g2_itemId=270
June 13, 2008 10:54 AM
 

Lorie in SW MO said:

Hey Gary ~ the video's that you showed last night sound fantastic. Could you put them out on the server or link to them? I would love to see them as well.

----------------

We will have it in a link later today.  Someone should post it to Youtube, once I get it on there.

Gary

June 13, 2008 10:57 AM
 

Chris said:

1.03 in North Grain Valley
June 13, 2008 10:58 AM
 

Lorie in SW MO said:

The big 'storm' got here at 6:15 this am and it's been raining ever since. We've already had 1.3" just this morning and the temp is a lovely 67 degrees with light thunder. A wonderful day to sleep in or watch movies. I already slept in and I'll probably watch a movie while doing laundry.
June 13, 2008 11:00 AM
 

Lorie in SW MO said:

Neat pictures, Notes.
June 13, 2008 11:01 AM
 

PatsSoxCelts said:

1.1 in Parkville last night!
June 13, 2008 11:01 AM
 

kristy said:

thanks so much for the grat coverage last nite.  as always i can count on you all.  i received .89 in lee's summit.  kristy
June 13, 2008 11:27 AM
 

siraluce said:

I have decided to dub my theory as to why the rainfall amounts (or snowfall) are low at KCI.  I will call it the SS - the Siraluce Split.  It is the theory that the government has electromagnetic rays that charge the atmosphere forcing the strongest part of storms fronts around the airport area.  It is just a theory, but yesterday we saw another example of it..



June 13, 2008 11:48 AM
 

getmbuck said:

Olathe at 131st and BlackBob Road: 0.84 inches storm total.
June 13, 2008 11:52 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

siraluce - I support it, and so long as you continue to provide this "evidence" and tell us about it after it happens, I have no choice but to support it.

[that one was for you Notes]

LMAO.
June 13, 2008 11:56 AM
 

RDub said:

It's not that humid now and drier air is moving in, so it should keep getting better, at least for the short term.
June 13, 2008 12:11 PM
 

Matt P said:

1.23 inches at N Tullis and N 76th up in the Shoal Creek area.
June 13, 2008 12:27 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Sometimes it feels like everybody's against you, sometimes it feels like the world doesn't care, but what you gotta do is you gotta get out,  you gotta find your heart, you gotta find your soul, you gotta find those strengths inside of yourself that make you take on the day, that make you take on the world, That make you appreciate what goes on around you, That makes you GLAD TO BE ALLLLLLLIIIIVEEEEE!!!!

Gary that was AWESOME footage last night. I was livin it up and I loved it and I couldn't get enough of you on TV. and Jeremy out chasing. it was great.
June 13, 2008 12:29 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

Scott said:  "siraluce - I support it, and so long as you continue to provide this "evidence" and tell us about it after it happens, I have no choice but to support it.
[that one was for you Notes] "

You know what they say about sarcasm/jokes:  There is so often a nugget of truth to them...
June 13, 2008 12:29 PM
 

VdoManZ said:

speaking of colder weather... since we have a few days off before the next round of trackable weather here is a good read. I know this will stir up some emotions. I encourage everyone to read. This is weather related and very scientific in nature, howevever ti does contain an opinion on a political issue. Please look at the facts and logic of the article. I believe it meets criteria for "bloggable" material. I'm not trying to stir up a political storm in any way. Just a good weather related read. ENJOY

http://www.***.com/weather/colemanscorner/19842304.html
June 13, 2008 12:30 PM
 

VdoManZ said:

OK, I guess no discussion allowed
June 13, 2008 12:34 PM
 

joneslr said:

Hi Gary and weather team

We only received .83 of rain in Roeland Park yesterday...
Thankfully, not the 3 to 6 you were forecasting...

Lance
June 13, 2008 12:35 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Notes - it is the essence of truth that makes them funny, not necessarly valid.  LOL

That said, I have never disagreed with you on the method of communication or how its presented.  So for that we agree.  We just disagree on the validity.  Which is fine.

Sidenote - Iowa flooding - HOLY COW.  CNN is talking about this big Omega blocking pattern.  

Glad they caught on half a year later.  LOL...but wait...would need more "evidence" to prove that out.

LOL
June 13, 2008 12:39 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

LOL Scott..
June 13, 2008 12:49 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

my uvula is swollen and is laying on my tongue...what the HELL does that mean. do I need to seek medical attention or what here?
June 13, 2008 12:50 PM
 

kane1970 said:

VdoManZ  where is you link?
June 13, 2008 12:56 PM
 

VdoManZ said:

looks like they filtered my link but you can google search the link that got posted and it is the first article. It's from the founder of the weather channel.
June 13, 2008 12:58 PM
 

Lorie in SW MO said:

Oh, I read that article, VdoManZ. Sent that article on to friends. Very interesting.
June 13, 2008 1:36 PM
 

siraluce said:

These clouds coming in resemble a dryline.. might be worth yet another photo shoot later today, perhaps?

By the way, I am gratified to see the support my SS theory is receiving.. though I should warn that it doesn't always hold 100 percent in the summer months.  I am still refining it.  
June 13, 2008 2:01 PM
 

Awtherfrd said:

June 13, 2008 2:14 PM
 

StormWyndd said:

Siraluce, I noticed those clouds to the west as I was coming back from lunch.... almost seemed like a line was starting to form??  Could that squeeze out a sprinkle or two?

Sky was totally clear overhead, and off to the east and southeast, could see the clouds from the storms.

Kind of neat to see 3 different air masses at once.  (course, I'm inside now and no where near a window.)  
June 13, 2008 2:15 PM
 

siraluce said:

Well, small echoes are starting to appear.. with one strong cell north of Chillicothe.  More echoes starting to form south of Topeka to near Emporia (the SS effect can clearly be seen once again!).. just might have to head down 35 or for a look if development continues.  If nothing else, the clear atmosphere and towering clouds are pretty and photogenic even if nothing big results.   But one never knows.. a few decent cells might yet appear for a bonus show this evening...
June 13, 2008 2:28 PM
 

Barbara said:

I had 1.1" at 151st and Pflumm in Olathe last night.  
June 13, 2008 2:31 PM
 

kurt said:

Just south of St. Joseph 5 inches in the deluge from early Thursday morning around 3:00 a.m. until 7:30 a.m.  Then we had 2.6 inches yesterday evening around 6:00 p.m.  Our June total is now around 8.2 inches.

I didn't believe the 5 inch total, but both rain gauges read that and my sister who lives about one mile west had almost that much too.
June 13, 2008 2:44 PM
 

Awtherfrd said:

I read that article this morning Vdo. I strongley buy into to solar activity theory on climate change. Pretty interesting to read.
June 13, 2008 2:48 PM
 

VdoManZ said:

Awtherfrd.... agree let's look at simple weather concepts. Why is it colder in the winter? why is it warmner in the summer?

Winter = Less Sun / farther from sun
Summer = More Sun / closer to sun

theory makes sense to me :)
June 13, 2008 3:15 PM
 

MCIRamp said:

Winter = Less Sun / farther from sun
Summer = More Sun / closer to sun

Only in the Southern Hemisphere...  The Earth this closer to the Sun in December than in any other month.
June 13, 2008 3:21 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I'm Going to sleep. yes the earth makes perigee to the sun in December.
June 13, 2008 3:33 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

or some may call it perihelion.
June 13, 2008 3:33 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

or some may call it perihelion.
June 13, 2008 3:33 PM
 

bewild79 said:

is there really a threat of rain today?  There is an MD out for it looks like parts of the northland saying that a watch is possible...
June 13, 2008 3:37 PM
 

LSMOWatcher said:

What are some good links for a weather novice?  Kinda like Idiot's guide to Weather.

Thanks.
June 13, 2008 3:37 PM
 

bewild79 said:

STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN MO MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
  MONITORED.
 
  THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN IA...NRN MO SWWD
  THROUGH THE KANSAS CITY AREA AND INTO SRN KS. A ZONE OF CLEARING
  NORTH OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DESTABILIZATION IN
  PRE-FRONTAL ZONE OVER NRN MO WHERE MID 60S DEWPOINTS PERSIST. MID
  LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND
  BASE OF UPPER LOW APPROACHES THIS REGION. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
  SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
  STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT AS CONVECTIVE
  INHIBITION WEAKENS AND FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE
  APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE
  IMPULSE IS RESULTING IN 40-50 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY BULK SHEAR THAT
  MAY SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
June 13, 2008 3:37 PM
 

Lorie in SW MO said:

Bite your tongue, Becky ;-)
June 13, 2008 3:46 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

siraluce - I am going to need to see some charts on the SS.

Please only show it to me when it best looks similar to another time and only in one method.

Tell me later when it worked and I promise to be a loyal follower.

[[cracking up]]
June 13, 2008 3:46 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Biting.......
June 13, 2008 3:51 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

found it interesting that EAX would have an update to their afternoon update only about 30 minutes later.

The update is in the forecast discussion.  Very similar to the SPC meso..but put out ahead of the meso.

Me thinks there had to be some kind of conference call or discussion to get these thoughts out there in about the same time.

The verbiage now is vastly different than the one that was put out this morning and earlier this afternoon. - atleast for the short term.

If convection can fire, the upper levels are far more favorable tonight than last night for development.

Much less MLCAPE though...got washed out most of the day.  And this time, we have a bit more surface convergence...
June 13, 2008 3:54 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Its all in good fun...and since I am a follower of the LRC, I feel somewhat justified to have some fun with it....

LOL..
June 13, 2008 3:55 PM
 

BeckiW said:

Gary-
My daughter and I really enjoyed meeting you and Stormy at Land of Paws today. Thanks so much for posing for the photos, too.

This is my first post on the blog, but my family and I love it, and turn to the blog any time there has been severe weather.

Keep up the great work, and thanks for helping keep us safe way up North :)
June 13, 2008 4:35 PM
 

whirlygirl said:

Can I ask what someone's swollen uvula is doing on a weather blog? Why would people even ask for medical advice like that? I guess I"m just trying to understand what this blog is about, I thought weather, and why things like that are ok to post. I'm not trying to cause a problem. I just don't understand why sometimes it looks like people are just posting like they think it's a personal Myspace page for teens or something.
June 13, 2008 4:39 PM
 

Larry A said:

NW Lawrence received 0.73" from last night's event for a total of 1.84" over the past 1.5 days.  

I had a great view of the wall cloud or funnel from my deck last night.  It was definitely very low to the ground and rotating, but did not touch the ground.  The wife and dog were in the basement at the time and I did not have my camera; otherwise would have been a great picture.  My wife was not happy I was on the deck wathching the wall cloud / funnel; she saw it briefly from the basement windows.  

Larry
June 13, 2008 4:45 PM
 

marlina10 said:

I agree with Whirlygirl. Let's keep focused on weather comments. If you want medical advice, google your symptoms, you'll find all kinds of scary diseases that will make you lose sleep at night! ;)
June 13, 2008 4:47 PM
 

Awtherfrd said:

There was an article out not too long ago about the sun possibly going into a cooling period with less and less flare ups. I believe it is part of a 200 year cycle. The implications if true could make for some nasty winters.
June 13, 2008 6:23 PM
 

whirlygirl said:

I think everyone is out enjoying the nice weather. I sure don't want nasty winters though. Winter and cold weather suck.
June 13, 2008 6:30 PM
 

twister11 said:

Why arent they in a basement taking shelter? Just wondering.
June 13, 2008 6:32 PM
 

twister11 said:

Why arent they in a basement taking shelter? Just wondering.
June 13, 2008 6:32 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I heard that Awtherfrd
June 13, 2008 6:38 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

about the uvula comment. I was just hoping somebody knew what it meant because frankly I was freaked out by it.
June 13, 2008 6:41 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

okay I'm off to a bon fire. see you guys later. sorry didn't mean to offend whirly girl i'll try and do better next time. BYE!
June 13, 2008 6:54 PM
 

xrysostom said:

We got 1.82" and a downed redbud tree out of last night's storms here in Emma. I emailed a picture of the tree to you. The last 2 storms have produced 5.29" (plus whatever blew over the rain gauge during the initial gusts).

Walt Snyder
June 13, 2008 7:31 PM
 

MrSteve said:

June 13, 2008 8:13 PM
 

whirlygirl said:

I think Gary showed this on the news the other day.
June 13, 2008 8:17 PM
 

MrSteve said:

whirlygirl 8:17 PM

**************

Good thing that wasn't more powerful.
June 13, 2008 8:24 PM
 

Kimberly said:

I really hope your forecast for this week is right!  My son has cubscout daycamp Tuesday-Friday next week, and high's of 70's-80's sounds perfect for that!  Last year was very hot and miserable out there.
June 13, 2008 8:36 PM
 

Tinpusher said:

I'm looking forward to monday, I got the new Olathe swamp in the backyard, KDWP is going to stock it next week, :) Just kidding, time to dry out!
June 13, 2008 11:17 PM
 

JayhawkLvr said:

Wow...the blog is sure quiet tonight!  We enjoyed some gorgeous weather tonight...we were out in Spring Hill and we were able to sit outside and enjoy the summer night without any fear of storms.  First night in a while...boy has this been a crazy week!  

I'm hoping the rest of the summer can maybe be a little less humid then it has been...but we will see!  I commend the entire weather team for all of their hard, hard work and many hours this past crazy week!!  Hopefully this next week will let you rest more!!!
June 14, 2008 12:31 AM
 

Nick Rau said:

Yes, I can't believe that video, that is another thing that is bound to happen some time, I hate to say it, but with more and more storm chasers, and year after year with close calls it is just a matter of time before one of them gets hurt, when chasing a tornado you are not supposed to actually CATCH it, but still very neat video and they did not even have a "TIV" for crying out loud!  Now it is time to see how this northwest flow treats us.  Also the fog last night was a neat touch.
June 14, 2008 1:12 AM
 

Matt P said:

Nick, not only did they not have a TIV, but it appears they didn't have brains either.  Too many people out there chase and a) don't give themselves a buffer, b) don't make themselves familiar with their surroundings, and c) don't have a valid escape route.  As Shania Twain sang, "Don't Be Stupid".  
June 14, 2008 8:24 AM
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