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Amazing Picture

Gary, I was watching you when the tornado developed on the air, and seeing it on the video you posted was much clearer (don't get good reception on my tv for the original airing.)  WOW, that gave me chills all over again watching the repeat.

And thanks so much for debunking that last photo of the farm house "Iowa" photo.  I got that email at work Friday.  Its really making the rounds.

So we're in for another inch of rain tomorrow?  Sigh, guess that means more yard work this afternoon.  The grass needs to stop growing!  Can barely keep gas in my car... ha, still thinking I need to 'rent a cow' for the back yard.

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At this time of the year, it is good to get one inch of rain every 4 days or so. But, not 5 inches of rain.  It has just been raining too much over Iowa.

Gary

More rain...enough said

Gary - Any bets on KMCI recording around half an inch or less coming up?

With the NW flow, I will be curious if that will be enough to bring the month under mean for temps.  This is the ONLY part of the cycle that is really more on the cool side.

We are 3 degrees above mean right now.  Lets say the next two weeks can get us to mean offsetting already has been above normal temps.  That would be likely the last run at this part of the pattern this year.

That would just leave the western troughing for one more shot.  

Dunno Gary - you have one two week period known to be cool in a span of three months of summer to get below normal temps.  Not sure if that is going to happen.

I may hedge right now with you on the wetter than normal, but pretty sure it won't be cooler than normal.

But...you have a much better chance of being right with this forecast than keeping an eye out for a blizzard.

LOL - just teasing.

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Scott,

I think it will be close to being a bit below average by the end of the month.  One or two of these cold fronts may get our lows into the middle 50s and this could catch us up very quickly.  It will be interesting to track.  And, KCI may be closer to average for the month, but there are parts of the metro area with around 7 inches of rain already.

Gary

well, is it. What is it then? is there just a clouds so low it is on the ground, not a tornado? It looks like it has flawded perspective in it.

Gary and Team,

According to the latest SPC 2 Day it looks like tommorrow afternoon could be interesting, mainly hail and wind.  Sounds like we could be under Moderate Risk for Sunday, fathers day, I have five kids, just tired of the severe weather threats.  What are your thoughts?

Thanks for the video link and scary picture of the car. Really eye opening.

And thank you for letting us know that the last picture is not a tornado. I had it emailed to me and saw on two un-weather related forums. It is a gorgeous picture but very frightening too. So what is it? Was it "photo shopped" ?

The gentleman who died in Soldier Kansas was known by my family.  He was slightly mentally handicapped and had left his mobile home and headed to his truck to try to outrun the tornado.  He was caught outside when the tornado hit.

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Very sad.  Thanks for the information.

Gary 

Good Afternoon!

Tomorrow really has a chance to be rather stormy with severe weather likely.  We will have to watch this very closely as we could very well be put in a moderate risk of severe weather tomorrow.  The main threats will be very large hail and strong winds.  There is also the possibility of isolated tornadoes.  Here is the latest from the SPC.  Take a look.

Forecast Discussion

  SPC AC 141729
 
  DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1229 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008
 
  VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREATS REGION SWWD
  INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
 
  ...SYNOPSIS...
  A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
  INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE IN
  THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING NWLY WINDS ALOFT OVER
  THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WITH 60-70 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX
  EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM SD SEWD INTO MO. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
  SEWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM THE
  CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL MO TO NEAR THE SRN KS/OK
  BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON.
 
  ...NEB/KS/OK/AR/MO...
  SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY IN THE
  PERIOD...THOUGH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WEAKENING MCS MAY BE
  LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF SRN IA/NWRN MO AND ERN NEB IN THE MORNING.
  THIS APPEARS REASONABLE AS THIS AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN LARGE SCALE
  ASCENT AHEAD OF JET MAX. GIVE THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND MUCAPES NEAR
  2000 J/KG...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS WITH HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME WIND
  DAMAGE ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...STEEP
  MID LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL RESULT
  IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE STORMS...WITH MLCAPES
  APPROACHING 4000 J/KG. THE SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
  STRONG UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. ONCE
  SURFACE BASED UPDRAFTS DEVELOP... ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
  SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF NWLY WINDS
  ALOFT AND EXTREME INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN DOWNDRAFT
  DOMINATED STORMS DEVELOPING A COLD POOL. ONCE THIS HAPPENS...
  WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE AS SYSTEM FORWARD PROPAGATES SEWD
  ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY. PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY NEED
  TO BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
 
  MCS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE MORE SWD OVERNIGHT...AS THE COMPLEX
  ENCOUNTERS A 20-30 LOW LEVEL SWLY JET. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND
  30-40 NWLY WINDS ALOFT MAY SUPPORT THESE STORMS MOVING AS FAR SWD AS
  THE ARKLATEX REGION BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
 
  ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THOUGH FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE
  WEAK...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
  MOST LIKELY AREA OF DEVELOPMENT FOR STORMS IS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
  IN CENTRAL/SRN KS LATE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING SEWD INTO OK DURING THE
  OVERNIGHT HOURS.
 
  ...PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...
  STRONG FORCING AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE
  NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING HOURS. MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH
  STEEP LAPSE RATES...500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C AND MLCAPES
  BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE
  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL.
  HOWEVER...40-60 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
  ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LINE SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED BOWS DEVELOPING...WITH
  WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT.


I think that the moderate risk will be placed in and south of Kansas City.  The next update will be at 08z (3AM Sunday).  We will see what happens.

Have a great day.

Jacob Honeycutt

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Jacob,

An MCS may be strong on Sunday afternoon.  I will be at KSHB tracking it during the afternoon, if it develops.

Gary

Testing to see if this works..

7 day.emf

Does anybody know how to post pictures on the blog using a link?

I love the fake tornado picture...it makes me laugh a lot.  Someone had way too much time on their hands!!!  

testing...

Shortcut to 7 day.emf

No severe weather tonight, that's for sure. Lightning hit directly across the lake from my house Thursday night while we were eating supper around 8:45PM. The sirens went off as well, then we got 2.78 inches of rain. It is too early, as of right now, to tell exactly how severe or when the thunderstorms tomorrow will move in, but I'm placing around an 80% chance of storms Sunday as of this afternoon.

Here is info from the SPC.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Jacob,

Actually, the next update will be at 06Z, or 1am when the Day 2 outlook becomes the Day 1 outlook. Just letting you know :) Also, I'm pretty sure you can't post pictures at all.

As for that picture, looks neat, but there are several things that say fake to me. One, the lights in the foreground are way to bright to be in the middle/late part of the day. The foreground looks like a several second night exposer, due to the blur in the flag. Also, there is too much glare from the light on the ground, and too much shadow from the lights for it to be day. Last thing, it kind of looks like those are stars in the top part of the picture with the cloud!
Any one else see anything?

Gary,
We now have 8.54" of rain for the month of June! That is with 1.63" that I forgot to report after Thursday's rain.

David

Good afternoon Gary!

Good to see you and chat with you today at the pool!

Tomorrow afternoon/evening has the potential to be very interesting - we shall see how it develops.

Thank you and your team for the greet job you are doing!

John

I just thought those were water spots....

Bewild,

Could be, I was only guessing on that part. :)

I know it's hard to say already probably, but I'm just curious as to whether or not you still think this may be an afternoon event tomorrow?  Is it something that will blow through and be done?  We're planning on going to WOF tomorrow for father's day and driving an hour and a half to get there.  I'd just hate to waste the money/gas if there's a good chance of us getting "stormed out".  We are planning on being there when it opens.  Any thoughts on whether we should postpone?? Thanks!!

Yes Gary, I know...certainly parts of the viewing area are very much above average.  I know.

However, it generally is accepted that KMCI is the place of record for event detail.  You have a large area in your DMA.

If you don't pick a spot to verify, then you can make any forecast fit.  I understand your thoughts though.

Curious thought based on your comment above:

"And, KCI may be closer to average for the month, but there are parts of the metro area with around 7 inches of rain already"

Your summer forecast was about as vague as it gets, yet you concede the forecast area to be so specific that KMCI is excluded only 10-15 miles north of the metro?

Been a crazy Spring/Fall...ready for the NW flow to build the SW ridge.  Once done, this pattern will be over.

;-)

Now...in looking at the CF6 data, fortunately, JOCO executive does provide departure from norms where Downtown and others do not.

That said, for the short time that it has recorded weather data, your forecast would be dead on in that area...and points south.

I think I could easily accept your totals at these locations for forecast justification if you want...but will you give up your Weatherate accuracy claim since they use KMCI?

Just having some fun...lol

Gary what was the total amount at KCI for the time period you wanted everyone to forecast for?

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Only 0.83"   1.5 inches fell in a few places around the metro.  We should play again on Sunday.

Gary

Good job tonight Jeremy Goodwin!!

Alex

Thanks David!

Dear Kcwxguy,
Here is what Gary really wants to say:
Dear Kcwxguy,
You are a douche.  A little knowledge is sometimes more dangerous than no knowledge.  Please keep calling me on everything I say, because I love to try to explain (in a politically correct way) that I don't just forcast for an area that is 8 square miles.  Keep it up.  You're awesome and very smart.  In fact, you must be a member of Mensa.  There is no way I can compete with your most excellent forcasting abilities.  In fact, you should become an actual meteorologist......naw...you might take my job. LOL       :)

Hmmm ... somebody oughta yank that last post out of here.

Sure has been a lot of personal negativity lately on this blog.

lol sneed.... that's awesome.

i'll be out chasing tomorrow mid afternoon, I expect it  to be similar to Thursday night, hopefully if the tornado drops, I'll get better footage, as the last one was so short lived.

uhhhh.......
If you haven't noticed, Scott and Gary have been at this for a long time, and you probably don't know what is really going on.
Thats all I have to say.

WoW!
Giant Moderate risk just issued! Maybe today might be interesting after all!

rickmckc,

No it should not be yanked, what should be yanked is scott, sneed is right, he is a douche bag. That is all this guy does, incase you haven't already figured this out, or were just to affraid of saying anything yourself. he has gone through my past blogs and gone out of his way to discredit me and others, i'm surprised he doesn't go back and check everyones posts for errors, all he does is try to make others look and feel stupid, and all he ends up doing is come off as an arrogant know it all, so peopel like sneed are right.  There are too many followers in here, fair weather bloggers, no pun intended. This blog would be an excellent resouce for knowlege and education and a little fun from time to time if it was not people like scott.   I'm not an armchair weather watcher I spend time in the field chasing as well for the past several years. Sitting infront of a computer and looking at models and using fancy terminology does not make you and expert.

That's why there have been alot of "personal negitivity" latley.  We all have something to contribute, some just think they are better than others.  So what's right is right, and whats wrong is wrong. I call it like I see it. Sometimes scott offers some good information, but the rest of it is him debating with someone. Share information and knowlege, thats what this blog is for.

There was some strong wording by the SPC as well.  If what they say holds true, it may be a good idea to build a bunker... LOL!  Stay safe everyone!  

Sorry I haven't been around..  I have been (and still am) busy and there is too much negativity in the blog.

Saturday was an absolute beautiful day for a wedding.  My niece got married outside at 7 PM.  We could have not asked for better weather. :)  It was perfect! :)

Kristi

Good morning!! Today is looking like it might get alittle interesting around these parts. Happy Father's Day to all you daddy's out there!!! Have a great day.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

What are the time frames on these storms?  I get off at 230pm, drive an hour home after work-oh yay. to McLouth, and not to mention, just remembered it was fathers day, so I have to stop and get atleast something to drop at dads.  - probably 3ish? Hopefully 6pmish- Let me know. Hopefully late enough I get to watch it develop and roll in.   We have been Very lucky in that particular area almost every storm we have had, we have had 0-.50" of rain.  Thursdays was the definitely the most intense..........
I have some VERY cool pictures of Mammatus clouds, Im actually impressed with them. after the storm on Thursday night from McLouth, let me know if you are interested in seeing them, amd where to send them, a big thanks and
I hope your day goes well in the office and on the air as I have read some very interesting stuff regarding this afternoons event.  - Thanks again Brett from McLouth, KS.