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The blog and SEVERE T-STORM WATCH

Good morning NBC Action News Weather bloggers,

There is a moderate risk for this afternoon and this evening.  A Severe T-Storm Watch is in effect today.  Severe thunderstorms are already forming and heading right towards us.  We will monitor the situation closely. The main threat is a bow echo producing very strong winds.

I want to thank each of you for the fantastic growth and participation in the blog.  It is this type of community support that certainly fosters a place to communicate and learn about weather.  Having said this, I want to take a moment to address some recent issues on the blog. 

During regular weather days, the team here actively tries to address all questions posed on the blog.  We spend many hours participating, in addition to our regular work!  We make time to blog from both work and from home.  During these normal times, things seem to generally remain weather related or otherwise in check on the blog.  During severe weather situations, recently the blog has invited some off topic and derogatory comments to other bloggers.

As I have watched the growth of this blog; the experience, knowledge, and passion of the blogger bas has expanded immensely.  This is terrific!  We invite those that have a great deal of experience, as well as those that have none.  This blog is great when ideas are exchanged, and you are respectful to others through this learning process.  We rely on you for observations, rain totals, and other weather related information around our area.  This is so critically important to our success!

When the weather gets exciting during severe weather, our team does not have enough time to monitor the blog as much as we would like to.  We are working to provide our viewers the best analysis and working to communicate in advance where we believe the risk to be.  At this time, we simply cannot be available for every question in the blog.  When we are away, we need everyone to be responsible for their how they interact with others.  We need everyone to remain on topic as it relates to weather, and most of all, we need everyone to rmain toloerant and open minded to those that may have different opinions.  There is a very broad cross section of people participating now, and each of us can learn from all of our ideas as it relates to weather.

I am asking that everyone remain focused on Kansas City's crazy weather and to be kind to your fellow blogger.  If this cannot be done, we will have to take further steps to eliminate this type of behavior.  Ths blog is so valuable and such a great tool, that we would hate to have to make changes because of a few bad comments or situations. 

Please try to get along, and where we disagree, be respectful. Most importantly, lets stay on topic regarding weather, as there are many days where we start to chat about our lives, and get into some topics that are quite personal and emotional.  Try to find another way to do this, through email.  If we all do this, the blog will continue to be a great resource for many and provide value to all that participate. 

Have a great day!  We will talk about today's developing weather situation soon.

Gary

 

Published Sunday, June 15, 2008 6:39 AM by glezak

Comments

 

juba said:

Might not blog for a while, my thumb has a cut that is giving of some stick whit fluid that won't whipe away!
June 15, 2008 7:13 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

Gary, Thank you so much for stepping in and saying that, I want to be able to come here and express my feelings about the weather no matter whether I'm exited when supercells develop or whether I'm scared of them. I feel a responsibility to help calm  people down during times of "panic" and then i get criticized for just being a "hobbyist" and I don't know what I'm talking about or on the other hand I shouldn't feel the way I do about thunderstorms because people get hurt in thunderstorms. One can't help their emotions and i'm just really glad you said that and now that you have, it will be much easier for me to ignore the nastier comments said in the blog. I always have though you guys have done a prestige job in the way you forecast and i will never stop relying on you as long as your around. Much love.

Jonathan Katz
June 15, 2008 7:20 AM
 

smb625 said:

Hate to repost here, but I posted this question last night and never got an answer.  Since the blog this morning didn't go into much detail yet, I'm really anxious to get an answer from ANYONE, whether it be the weather team or one of you many knowledgable bloggers!!! We leave in an hour if we're going and I'd GREATLY appreciate a response from someone! Thank you!!!

"I know it's hard to say already probably, but I'm just curious as to whether or not you still think this may be an afternoon event tomorrow?  Is it something that will blow through and be done?  We're planning on going to WOF tomorrow for father's day and driving an hour and a half to get there.  I'd just hate to waste the money/gas if there's a good chance of us getting "stormed out".  We are planning on being there when it opens.  Any thoughts on whether we should postpone?? Thanks!!"
June 15, 2008 7:21 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

HI SMB! Right now everything is all clear, but later this morning into early afternoon storms should have already developed and begin moving in from the NW to the SE, Very Large Hail and Straight line winds up to and exceeding 75 mph are not out of the question with the storms according to the NWS briefing that they just came out with. So I'd say go and have fun but just watch the sky and WOF authorities will tell you when you need to take shelter because I DONT THINK that the storms should last that terribly long as the average thunderstorm only lasts about 20 minutes. Just be aware today. but have fun.
June 15, 2008 7:29 AM
 

tirzah2 said:

This blog site is great for us who are involved with the every changing weather as you guys are.  I hope those who take the liberty to be 'emotional' respect that this is a professional blog page and the protocols associated with this are followed.  This blog not only serves as a tool for our weather team but also for us, as we can not see what our neighboring cities are seeing during a storm, etc.

It would be a crying shame if the abuse gets out of control to the point you have to make a decision to shut this page down Gary because of a few rotten apples.  Rude behavior doesn't exhibit the pride of Kansas City.

I find this blog very exciting to get involved in and am always amazed at the knowledge some of our blogs demonstrate. Every day I come here to see what is posted and the comments my fellow bloggers make.  The weather here is truely exceptional and to forecast it is even more exceptional.  Keep up all the good work you guys are doing and I praise you for all the hard work you take to keep us informed.

PS  My grandmother once told me, as she was washing my mouth out with soap; "it doesn't take any intelligence to cuss."  That was one lesson I never forgot. :)
June 15, 2008 7:30 AM
 

smb625 said:

Thank you Hail!  I love thunderstorms and all, but just not severe weather when I'm not in the comfort of my own home and watching!  When there are storms, I am on the computer looking at all the radars the whole time, it drives me nuts when we're away from home and I can't do that! lol I hated to "jump the gun" and say we should wait, when my kids have been looking forward to this for so long.  So we'll go ahead and give it a shot.  Thank you again for answering, I was so worried no one would! :)
June 15, 2008 7:42 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

no problem Smb, have a good time, like I said just be aware and watch the sky, I'm sure you know what it looks like when a storm is about to hit, our tornado threat is farely low today but like I always say you can never rule out a tornado with any severe thunderstorm but while being ontop of mamba  you'll have a great view of that;-) HAVE FUN! Ride the new Patriot for me!
June 15, 2008 7:47 AM
 

smb625 said:

Hail, we haven't been to WOF for a looong time and I LOVE roller coasters about as much I love storms! :)  I'm excited to try out all the new ones.  I'm trying to convince my 12 year old son how awesome roller coasters are as well! :)  
June 15, 2008 7:56 AM
 

LRCfan said:

Thunderstorms in Nebraska look like they are already turning southeast toward us looks like after lunchtime they will make it down here with a threat of wind and hail everyone keep an eye on the sky and also happy father's day to the dads out there.
June 15, 2008 7:57 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

smb I didn't start riding roller coasters til I was 20 but once you step into the roller coaster world you never leave. I'm with you about thunderstorms. If there is even a chance of thunderstorms on a given day. I don't leave my computer and i'm on radar and satellite all day long!
June 15, 2008 8:01 AM
 

johnj said:

I've learned more about weather in the six months I've been reading this blog than in my other 53 years combined.  Thanks one and all for the opportunity!

If someone should make a comment that might be offensive or just plain dumb, PLEASE just roll your eyes, mumble something to yourself, and.........move on to the next blog entry.  There's no need to reply to that.  We're here (hopefully) to learn and to share weather experiences and that's all.  Not complain about other's opinions.  My 2 cents.

And Gary--thanks for scheduling today's storms in daylight hours.  They're awesome to watch approach and not quite so scarey!

----------------

Great addition to our statement today.  Thanks!  And, let's hope it isn't too bad today.  The US Open is on, and I would rather not cut into programming at all.

Gary

June 15, 2008 8:02 AM
 

kcroyals05 said:

Weather team.

Great job last week in covering the severe weather events that unfolded in the viewing area and of those that developed to our north in Iowa.  The caputuring of the formation of the tornado like was awsome.  I have a co worker who now watches your station, he saw that footage, recognized that the storm was headed his way, got the pets in and was ready for the storm.  Again great job!!!

I for one understand that you cannot always "monitor" the blog and I agree 100 percent with you Gary on the above post.   We all need to get along, and think before we type.

I wasn't able to get on the last couple of days so here's the rain total for my area of Grandview --- .90 inches.   I think that puts us near 7.50 inches for the month.

In closing, Melissa and I would like to wish all the dad's out there and at the station a "HAPPY FATHERS DAY"

Bill

------------

Bill,

Thank you!  And, for the rainfall report too.  We are only halfway through the month. 

Gary

June 15, 2008 8:06 AM
 

irishrover said:

Thanks, Gary.  I am mostly a lurker.... and rainfall total adder (once I get a new rain gauge...mine died) but I'm on here daily and I hate to see the negativity.... I don't agree with some of what's said but then, I'm sure there are many who would not agree with me so I respect their opinions.  It's been tough to see so much of it lately.  I hope everyone takes your blog to heart and keeps to the theme.... weather.  And keep a positive attitude.
Have a super Sunday and Happy Father's Day!! I hope Stormy and Breezy take you for a nice long walk !!

----------------

They are taking me for a walk right now!  Then, the new data will be here.

Gary

June 15, 2008 8:09 AM
 

MikeTrainor1 said:

Good post Gary. I think it's a shame that every now and then you need to remind folks about the intent of this blog. That said, I certainly understand how "emotional" weather can be. I find this blog invaluable. Though I don't post anywhere near as much as I used to, I still follow it daily and am amazed at the knowledge that is shared by everyone. I've seen many who post here grow in their knowledge too. Very gratifying. I'm still just a neophyte, but I learn from you and the team and from others here too.

Keep up the most excellent work and thanks for having this blog here for us. - Mike T.

--------------------

Mike,

We love your input! Thanks for being part of the blog.

Gary

June 15, 2008 8:18 AM
 

DaveC said:

I agree Gary, I got accused a week ago over being mean toward another blogger, but I was more critical of the attitude this blogger was having and the direction this blog has taken lately which appears to be more dr. phil related than weather. Plus I do realize the nature of this blog allows certain people to become more self-realized experts. I do agree with a poster back on friday that we should strive to stay weather related on this blog and non-weather discussions do not belong here. And as of late I've seen more people use this place to share their misfortunes in life and I really feel that conversation needs to over all exist in other places. I may be wrong, but I know I'm not alone in this thinking.

Cheers and lets enjoy some storms today!

-----------------------

Great points!

Gary

June 15, 2008 8:21 AM
 

momof3 said:

HAPPY FATHER'S DAY!!!!!  I hope that we can weed out the bad apples some way.  THey are really very few and far between.  I would be totally lost without this blog between the weather team keeping us so up to date and the bloggers who seem so knowledgable (hailjonathon, scott, kristy) I can just enjoy these storms.   I check the blog at least 3 or 4 times a day and it would be such a shame to not have it anymore.  As they say a few can ruin it for everybody.  Thank you for addressing this problem and hopefully those people who are acting up will just not come back anymore!  Everyone have a great day stay safe and hopefully we will have some big storms later on!!!!
June 15, 2008 8:25 AM
 

spotter said:

gary and team great job on coverage during severe weather. we will have to watch the weather to the north as it moves south.also i will be out later on the chase is there another way i can send you information on storms while we are on the move.
June 15, 2008 8:45 AM
 

bgmike said:

I am out of town but I did check some stuff this morning.  Uhhh, did you see this forecasted cape for Lawrence, KS today??

http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=021&STATIONID=klwc

Oh my, that is insane.  That can't be true.....can it?  What is the highest cape you have seen in this area, Gary?

Later,
Mike in Texas, today

June 15, 2008 8:56 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

Mesoscale Discussion Out for the metro Weather Watch likely By 10 AM
June 15, 2008 9:03 AM
 

spotter said:

nws say possible new watch will be issued in the next hour .
June 15, 2008 9:06 AM
 

grumpyred said:

are we under one now... severe thunderstorm watch?
June 15, 2008 9:10 AM
 

spotter said:

yes new severe thunderstorm watch till 5 pm entire area.
June 15, 2008 9:13 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

Severe T Storm Watch Now in affect. I will gather statistics now!
June 15, 2008 9:13 AM
 

grumpyred said:

weather.gov    
National Weather Service
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC001-003-005-009-013-015-017-027-029-031-041-043-045-053-059-
061-073-079-085-087-089-091-103-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-123-
127-131-139-141-143-149-155-157-159-161-167-169-173-177-183-197-
201-207-209-152200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0539.080615T1410Z-080615T2200Z/

KS
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN                ANDERSON            ATCHISON
BARTON               BROWN               BUTLER
CHASE                CLAY                CLOUD
COFFEY               DICKINSON           DONIPHAN
DOUGLAS              ELLSWORTH           FRANKLIN
GEARY                GREENWOOD           HARVEY
JACKSON              JEFFERSON           JEWELL
JOHNSON              LEAVENWORTH         LINCOLN
LINN                 LYON                MARION
MARSHALL             MCPHERSON           MIAMI
MITCHELL             MORRIS              NEMAHA
OSAGE                OSBORNE             OTTAWA
POTTAWATOMIE         RENO                REPUBLIC
RICE                 RILEY               RUSSELL
SALINE               SEDGWICK            SHAWNEE
SMITH                WABAUNSEE           WASHINGTON
WOODSON              WYANDOTTE
June 15, 2008 9:13 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

oh my god..this is real...we are under a PDS severe thunderstorm watch. I'VE NEVER SEEN THIS BEFORE! HOLD FOR FURTHER INFORMATION!
June 15, 2008 9:15 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (5%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
High (70%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (50%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)
June 15, 2008 9:17 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

This is a Particularly Dangerous Situation. WITHOUT a very real threat for tornadoes. I am Smiling very big right now not because i'm happy for severe weather but because something I theorized actually exists. wow!
June 15, 2008 9:18 AM
 

grumpyred said:

Is there any concern for the storms out west, or is it just the ones in Nebraska?
June 15, 2008 9:18 AM
 

Matt P said:

HailJonathan et all, yes, I refer to "hobbyist", but that's not a slam at all nor is it intended to be.  I apologize if you're offended.  There are some very knowledgeable people on this blog.  But the are some who have been growing yet still have a lot to learn.  There have been several people who have told people on this site that they are in the clear and don't need to worry.  While it may seem to be wise to help keep people calm, it's better for them to monitor what the weather team has to say. If you're using information that the weather team or the SPC has provided, that's one thing.  But a lot of it is self speculation. There have been multiple times where the radar doesn't show anything, but Gary or other members of the team have mentioned about storms that are about to develop, and they have.  In the meantime, the person is awoken to severe storms, even though they were "safe" for the night.
  Have a great day!

   
June 15, 2008 9:19 AM
 

Ryan Spencer said:

Man, what a treat for Father's Day. This severe weather pattern needs to stop ASAP.
June 15, 2008 9:21 AM
 

grumpyred said:

Matt, Keep in mind when the storms hit, some us lose satelitte or power.  I am stuck with my sidekick,  so I rely entirely on this blog to keep me informed with whats going on with the radar.  I, myself  have no complaints with them telling me I'm in the clear or heads up.  They are all I have.
June 15, 2008 9:26 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

no matt i'm not offended at all, I just think you need to put a little more faith in some of the hobbyists out there, but really we just shouldn't be talking about this anymore. because I don't want this blog to be shut down, I love it too much.
June 15, 2008 9:27 AM
 

Emmysmom said:

Any thoughts on an ETA for these storms, and possibly how long they may stick around?  And if we get them early, is that it for the day/evening, or do we have more coming in this evening (which is when I thought most stations said this was coming anyway)?
June 15, 2008 9:27 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

Matt, another thing. I never Go against what Gary or Jeremy or any other of their weather team says. If they say that there is a high likely hood of the threat pressing south and east, that's what I say, if they say the threat still remains that a storm may refire after the Supposed initial line than I won't sound an all clear for anybody. but like I said I think we all understand each other and I'm glad that this has been brought up so Let just focus on the day ahead. it looks to be quite a day as I have never seen a PDS Severe T-Storm watch before.
June 15, 2008 9:30 AM
 

homemom said:

Hail,

Where are you seeing mention of PDS Severe T-storm watch??
June 15, 2008 9:32 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Thanks Gary, that needed to be said!! Good luck with the days events. You all look to be busy. Stay safe everyone.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS
June 15, 2008 9:33 AM
 

MikeTrainor1 said:

hailjonathan... what do you mean PDS? is that something from the nws or a term you are coining? when you say you've never seen this before, in what regard? just want to understand. thanks! - mt
June 15, 2008 9:34 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

Emmy's mom..ETA on these storms should be very late morning or approaching the noon hour to 1:30 depending on where you live in the metro...that's my thinking right now. I'd say stay tuned to KSHB in case Gary Breaks in. I don't have any thoughts on redevelopment at this time.
June 15, 2008 9:36 AM
 

dougbce said:

I think we're in for a wild ride this afternoon / late morning.  Just seems really odd getting a thunderstorm watch issued at 9 in the morning as opposed to our traditional 2 or 3 in the afternoon.  

My mom and step dad are tent camping at Truman Lake this weekend.  I think it's time to call them and tell them to have there stuff picked up in the next couple of hours.  I don't think there tent is going to mix real well with these storms rolling through.

Gary, I walked my friends Malumute the other night and I think he pulled my shoulder out of socket dragging me up and down the street.  That dog is bigger than me.

Gary, thanks for the blog and for the people that are getting out of hand I agree just ignore them and move on.  
June 15, 2008 9:38 AM
 

MollyFaith said:

Darn it I have to drive to Topeka about noon and then head to Lawrence about 3 to drop my son off at KU basketball camp...I will watch the weather as much as I can but do we know what time this should hit...I wish for some boring weatherand for this storm to move in another direction!!
June 15, 2008 9:38 AM
 

spotter said:

i have never seen a severe thunderstorm watch with a pds watch weathbug just came out with this information.they are saying 90 mph winds hail to 3 in dangerous lighting.
June 15, 2008 9:38 AM
 

JPnKC said:

I too have never seen a PDS SVR TSTORM WATCH-- Particularly Dangerous Situation....ususally associated with Tornado Watches....very interesting
June 15, 2008 9:38 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

a PDS means Particularly Dangerous Situation. If you go to weather.gov and click on Severe Weather and then click on current watches, the one issued for the Kansas City area is labeled as a "PDS" because it states in there that hail up to 3 inches in diameter is possible and thunderstorm wind gusts to 90 mph are possible with the thunderstorms that enter or form in the watch box. i've already read up on it. but if you want to check it out for yourself it's Weather.gov and click on "Severe Weather" on the left hand side.
June 15, 2008 9:38 AM
 

Emmysmom said:

Thanks, Hail!  Looks like it will be church and home then.  We live up north near Liberty, so we'll be getting it first.
June 15, 2008 9:40 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

I'm sorry I forgot to mention. yes I Have seen PDS watches before but ONLY in the form of Tornado Watches NEVER in the form of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. I'm not saying it's never happened but I'm just saying this is the first time I've ever seen it and I think it's a rare occurance.
June 15, 2008 9:40 AM
 

Chase said:

Good gravy that cell up north looks mean!  

I didn't know they issued PDS type watches for Severe T-Storms, I thought it was only for Tornado watches.

Good thing I don't have any plans for today as I'll most likely be corralling my 7 cats & dog into the bathroom again.  They freak out when it starts hailing...Well I do too though. lol


I do have a question though, I saw where bgmike mentioned something called a CAPE.  What is that exactly & why is it important?  Please bear with me I'm pretty new to all this.  I've lived in tornado alley all my life but never really understood why storms do what they do.  So I  love to learn about them even if I am hiding under the bed scared half outta my wits while doing so.
June 15, 2008 9:40 AM
 

KellyHightower said:

What time will the strong winds and hail get here?  Should I go to church?  which  gets out at 12:15,  home about 1 p.m.?
June 15, 2008 9:40 AM
 

dougbce said:

Mike Trainor, the NWS issues PDS sometimes when it is exactly that  a Particularly Dangerous Situation.  Here is there right up on the Thunderstorm Watch.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0539.html
June 15, 2008 9:41 AM
 

maryb said:

PDS   Particularly Dangerous Situation....just saw it posted at NOAA
June 15, 2008 9:41 AM
 

Matt P said:

MikeTrainor1, a PDS is a 'pretty dangerous situation".  The SPC doesn't issue many of these, so they're worth keeping an eye on them.
June 15, 2008 9:42 AM
 

Matt P said:

LOL!  I think I just typed in "pretty", not "particularly".  Yeesh.  I knew that, but my mind isn't working this morning.
June 15, 2008 9:43 AM
 

Dwxtracker said:

PDS - Particularly Dangerous Situation/.

This is a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

I have not ever seen one of these before. I am not quite sure what to make of it. I think it means that they are expecting extreme hail and/or extremely dangerous wind. Ah, here we go:
EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...LARGE HAIL
  TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN
  THESE AREAS.

David
June 15, 2008 9:45 AM
 

grumpyred said:

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (50%)

NOOOOOOO don't wanna replace roof again.

June 15, 2008 9:46 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

CAPE-Convective Available Potential Energy. I don't really understand it a whole lot. but really the marginal number for Severe thunderstorms to break out is about 2000 what his map indicated was the CAPE approaching 7000 which I don't buy I just read the last mesoscale discussion and they are indicating a CAPE of 3000-4000 developing over our area well strong enough to support Severe thunderstorms.
June 15, 2008 9:46 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

David isn't that amazing. those are numbers you usually find in a tornado watch. but the threat for tornadoes is low today.
June 15, 2008 9:47 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

Lol that's okay matt we all do it a time or two.=)
June 15, 2008 9:48 AM
 

Holmes524 said:

Over protective mom here.  2 daughters work at WOF.  One is going in 11:45 and one who works at 3.  Anyone want to give me an estimate as to when the storms will move in and any guesses as to how long these will last?
Last really big storm we had middle daughter was at work and really scared her.  Even though they closed she still had to walk from inside the park to the parking lot.  
June 15, 2008 9:48 AM
 

grumpyred said:

what does the cape mean for lawrence that mike was talking about for lawrence?  That's getting close to me :(
June 15, 2008 9:50 AM
 

WEATHERdude said:

GOOD MORNING ALL!!!!

and a happy fathers day!

Gary, that was very well said... arent you glad that you have that fine print at the bottom saying "The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of this station." LOL but anyway thank you all again for really being helpful and great and a part of the blog!

Juba, sorry to hear about your thumb :(

Kelly... i think that you may want to go to an earlier church time... these storms seem to be moving in quite fast.

These storms look nasty and headed our way, everyone be safe!
June 15, 2008 9:53 AM
 

MikeTrainor1 said:

ah. got it. many thanks to you all for clarifying.
June 15, 2008 9:55 AM
 

PilotS77 said:

Good morning all!!

The storms are coming and I think that they will be loud - but hopefully will not last long. As for Tornadoes, one can never eliminate the probability of tornadoes, however North to South moving storms in general have less of a Tornado threat associated with them. However 90 MPH winds can do a lot of damage to roofs and also trees and small structures - also sometimes low clouds are sometimes mistaken for tornadoes - taking cover makes sense.

Be safe and lets hope these storms only provide a learning experience and do no damage.

John
June 15, 2008 9:55 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

Holmes, Holmes the storms should make it here in the next 2-4 hours. I can imagine that this must be scary. this is a scary situation. you have to make the best decision here. the storms do look to be quite nasty according to the Storm Prediction center.
June 15, 2008 9:55 AM
 

StormWyndd said:

Nuts, more severe weather!  Man, I hope it either clouds up, or something happens to difuse this situation.  This is more like hurricane winds, which if it comes into the city is going to be more wide spread than a tornado would be.  :o(, argh, my poor garden.  
June 15, 2008 9:58 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

I've been reading information on some of the warnings up in NE and so far they don't seem all that severe just your average 60 mph wind gust and nickel sized hail. but I can't find any really severe wind or hail reports. At least as of now.
June 15, 2008 9:59 AM
 

JPnKC said:

Holmes524- In my opinion.....Looking at the radar- and the speed of the complex of storms moving in from the NW- I would guess between 12-1...hope this helps....
June 15, 2008 9:59 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

Good words John.
June 15, 2008 10:01 AM
 

StormWyndd said:

Thanks JP, I have to run to the store, I was curious how I could find out just how fast these things are moving.  
June 15, 2008 10:03 AM
 

Holmes524 said:

Thanks Hail and JP.  Luckily both kids work inside buildings and not running rides.  It still isnt comforting knowing what is headed this way.  The storms look pretty strong.  Thank goodness I live 5 minutes away and can pick them up in minutes.
June 15, 2008 10:04 AM
 

auroramama said:

Wow, I have never seen a PDS issued in regards to a Severe T-Storm Watch either.  Ugh.  I was sitting here scratching my head trying to figure out what was going to hit us until I finally put tracks on that storm up north, I see it is moving south.  Weird.  
June 15, 2008 10:06 AM
 

KellyHightower said:

Ok thanks!  changing my plans!  
June 15, 2008 10:07 AM
 

Tinpusher said:

Gary and Team, I was wondering, with everyone mentioning PDS SVR  T-STORM  WATCH, if this setup today is very similiar to what hit St. Louis 2 years ago?   Time to batten down the hatches again.  Thank you for stepping in and hopefully settling down the blog a little.  This is a great tool, and I love reading it.  

Alan
June 15, 2008 10:10 AM
 

Tim in West Shawnee said:

Nice blog, Gary.  I remember back 2-3 years ago and there weren't 10% of the people now that check this blog out.  Your station has done a great job promoting it and the content is great -- whether its keeping us up to date with stormy weather or snow events to even topics such as "cloud discussions" during the summer when weather-wise things really quiet down.  Definately a learning experience at all times!

As for today, can you see what you can do to hold off the storms till, say 4:30 or so?  I have to BBQ for 15-20 people this afternoon around 3-3:30! :)

About breaking into programming -- here's an alternative.  Can you put a crawl at the bottom (or top) of 41.1 telling folks to tune into 41.2 (Weather +) for live reports -- and you can break into that channel with live stuff as much as you want?  I personally don't mind breaking into coverage but lets see here.. US Open.. Tiger Woods in the lead, I can already predict the # of people complaining that they didn't get to see "this" shot or "that" shot of his.  Oh well.  Up to you guys, thats why they pay you the big bucks :)

Happy Fathers Day everyone,
Tim
June 15, 2008 10:11 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

I saw that 90 mph wind thrown in the Severe T-Storm Watch Discussion and I was just like...uhhh..wow. i'm going to go check on the warnings again but last time i checked I didn't seen any major severe weather on those warnings up in NE. but I'm going to check again.
June 15, 2008 10:11 AM
 

farmgirl said:

Any chance these will weaken as they head south? Got that awful stomach churning feeling going on again. I am SICK of this weather!
June 15, 2008 10:13 AM
 

MrSteve said:

What do I think?

I think this is getting ridiculous. We've been in the bulls eye since last Dec 1.

Way to much to deal with.
June 15, 2008 10:14 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

Just took a look at all the warnings again. I'm still only seeing things like "in excess of 60 mph" or penny to quarter size hail. so right now there is nothing out there PDS but this could change.
June 15, 2008 10:14 AM
 

Larry2KCDaily said:

Just stepped out and looked north. Clouds are rolling. Definite darking to the north here in Lawrence.
June 15, 2008 10:16 AM
 

JustinG said:

I got this from Wikipedia concerning a PDS T-storm watch.

"PDS severe thunderstorm watches are issued when there is a greater risk of severe wind damage capable of major structural damage (in addition to large hail and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes), usually due to a strong derecho. They are very rare (an average of only two each year) as the tornado risk has to remain low enough to only warrant a severe thunderstorm watch (a tornado watch would be issued if the tornado risk is significant alongside the wind threat)."
June 15, 2008 10:21 AM
 

Dwxtracker said:

Hows Half Dollar sized hail Jonathan?
AT 955 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  
June 15, 2008 10:21 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

GARY, JEREMY, SOMEBODY please break in with weather coverage. the show or infomercial or whatever is on your channel right now is absolutely ABSURD!
June 15, 2008 10:21 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

I didn't see that one. but that's still I don't wanna say "only" golf ball but still they're saying 3 inch hail.
June 15, 2008 10:23 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

there's a Destructive 70 mph wind gust with penny sized hail up in central Iowa right now but that's not headed down here.
June 15, 2008 10:27 AM
 

grumpyred said:

I second that Johnathan, if this a pds I would like to know more about it rather  than the ultimate healing book
June 15, 2008 10:27 AM
 

siegel12 said:

I woke up 20 minutes ago to a rapid increase of cloud cover and 80 degrees with humidity. Then I discovered we're in a Particularly Dangerous Situation, with winds expected over 90 mph. I'm tracking the storms and they are still disorganized. What I am seeing towards St. Joseph though is concerning. There is considerable outflow, it seems, indicated by an area of light green that is currently over St. Joseph. The storms are currently in a complex, but if the bowout becomes more organized, we could see incredible winds possibly approaching, as the PDS indicates, 90 miles per hour. That will cause significant damage. Currently, winds in the storms are 60-70 mph.
June 15, 2008 10:30 AM
 

MrSteve said:

Actually the sensationalism around these storms at this point is becoming more exhausting then the storms themselves. Face it we can't beat mother nature.
We have to work with her or around her. Fact.

Be aware, be prepared, be calm. Don't drive your car directly under tornados hoping to get on you tube. Or go out into the front yard when a funnel is close thinking wow look at that, and it's getting bigger too!  (You know, complicated things like that)







June 15, 2008 10:31 AM
 

Jenn6428 said:

Does anyone know about what time we can expect these storms here in the metro?
June 15, 2008 10:32 AM
 

grumpyred said:

lol Mrsteve
June 15, 2008 10:37 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

yeah siegel I am unsure of the storms future. they don't appear to be doing much I see them maybe bowing out a little but the echoes are not that strong. and with substantial strong bow echoes it usually goes from nothing to RED on the radar returns you don't see a whole lot of green before the red like we are seeing today. I think anyway if anybody more knowlegeable wants to speak now. DO speak now or forever hold your peace.
June 15, 2008 10:37 AM
 

legalpractice said:

Perfectly still in St. Joe with the rumble of thunder in the distance.  
June 15, 2008 10:38 AM
 

gmajc said:

I'm a novice weather watcher.  What is a derecho?
June 15, 2008 10:38 AM
 

MrSteve said:

Jenn6428 said:
Does anyone know about what time we can expect these storms here in the metro?
****************************

I don't know but we're going out into the back yard to do a "no rain-no storm dance" ceremony to see if we can turn them east instead of south east.

June 15, 2008 10:39 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

they are already starting to enter the metro now. St Joseph is about to get hit.
June 15, 2008 10:40 AM
 

Brett34 said:

Called dad for father's day in McLouth- or just outside of McLouth in unassociated Springdale, he advised that it is getting pretty loud there.  I can't believe they are coming in this early!  I was thinking 4 or 5.  Looks like maybe still a potential even once the initial line moves through....of all days not to bring my camera w/ me.  
I though it would hold off.  Guess not.  I can do without the hail though.  Still have to watch for bow segments forming.  Its racing into a very unstable atmosphere, we could be in for a flash flood event that's for sure.  Went out at work at lunch and moved car under a tree, whats worse a tree on your car or less hail damage- lol.
June 15, 2008 10:42 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

there is already more redevelopment where the original MCS started.
June 15, 2008 10:42 AM
 

siegel12 said:

Jenn6428, storms are around 75 minutes north and northwest of here, moving SE at 45 miles per hour. Depending on their speed, storms become likely within the next couple of hours. They will certainly impact the metro by mid afternoon.
The latest warnings on storms moving our direction are still only marginal severe. If you have family east of the metro, however, let them know they may be in for some serious thunderstorms. There are currently storms over Southwestern and Southern Iowa producing winds approaching hurricane force.
June 15, 2008 10:45 AM
 

Mammatus said:

gmajc... A Derecho is a wide spread damaging wind event. Caused by a severe line of thunderstorms over a large area.
June 15, 2008 10:45 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

okay and how do you see this happening, do a break in or something there are people concerned.
June 15, 2008 10:45 AM
 

farmgirl said:

I agree with you Hail, this infomercial is less important than what is going on up North. The alarmist channel is scaring the heck out of the public again.... including me. I keep switching back and forth hoping to catch a glimpse of Gary.

Just went up on the roof to try and secure the chimney cap. It's hopeless. It is so banged up from the last storm that it is sure to come off again. Nothing worse than waiting for this big storm!
June 15, 2008 10:46 AM
 

auroramama said:

It looks to me like most of the storm is losing its warnings.  Is that a possibility or will they just pick up speed again when they enter the metro?
June 15, 2008 10:47 AM
 

whirlygirl said:

First, if Gary or any of the team felt there was a need to break in they would. You will have to suffer with whatever they choose to program with and not complain. I will watch the blog but I really feel that what Gary has posted is sufficent for now and that if anything changes he will break in at an appropriate time and that's who I plan to get my updates from.
June 15, 2008 10:47 AM
 

Dwxtracker said:

I don't know, but the main line of storms seems to have lost some of its punch. It looks rather disorganized, with the only significant weather on the trailing two cell that are not part of the line yet. Maybe the clouds that are spreading in are killing off some of the instability?
June 15, 2008 10:48 AM
 

Mammatus said:

HailJonathan. That line is heading into very unstable air so i wouldn't be surprised to see some 70+ mph gusts. Im curious to see what happenes with the next Mcs that will develop and how the one heading in now will muck up the atmosphere. There is still alot of sun out west and north of the current Mcs so I would say we will see more development. I will have to say I have never seen a PDS Severe T-storm watch. Thats a new one to me.
June 15, 2008 10:48 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

thanks whirlygirl.
June 15, 2008 10:50 AM
 

Brett34 said:

That is what I was thinking, we may be in for more than the initial line- how far out ahead of the front is this line of storms anyway?  I noticed statements of a severe weather threat lasting through the evening hours in and north of the viewing area.
June 15, 2008 10:52 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

yeah I know mammatus but one of the team just anonomously posted something about a rain dance to make them turn east but I dont know what that means I wish they could have left us with more than that. My wife is going out in about in hour and I don't want to be separated from her with 90 mph winds possible
June 15, 2008 10:54 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

I noticed that David.
June 15, 2008 10:54 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

yeah this thing is totally weakening.
June 15, 2008 10:57 AM
 

PilotS77 said:

Indeed as I look at the storm it appears to become better organized as it moves South -I measured the deepest part of the active area of the storm to be 65 miles right now (10:58) almost double the size it was when it passed through Omaha!

We shall keep looking at this --

John
June 15, 2008 10:59 AM
 

Chase said:

Farmgirl I know what you mean.  When I looked out this morning the whole atmosphere just had that "stomach sinking" feel to it.   Then about 30 minutes later the weatherbug went off with the pds severe t-storm watch.

Don't know if it will be bad this far south (I'm in Osawatomie) but hopefully it won't be the kind of day my stomach is thinking it will be.

I went ahead & called family in Overland Park & Paola to let them know, as they were headed to church.  Didn't want them to come out to a possible surprise severe storm.

As for breaking into the programming, I'm not a big sports fan & that might be coloring my opinion, but if this puppy has a PDS on it & it enters our area then I say break in no matter what is showing.

I know Gary & the team are fantastic about keeping us all forewarned about these kinds of dangers & I in no way mean any disrespect with the above comment, so just keep up the excellent work guys!  

I might add a little don't forget about us down south of the metro note.  Sometimes I do feel like all the local stations tend to forget about us once the storms move out of the metro & down here in Miami & Linn counties.

Everyone stay safe today & Happy Father's Day!
June 15, 2008 11:01 AM
 

juba said:

This seems to be a bit west of where the NAM forecasted the MCS would form. Im in lawrence right now and I can see what looks like an anvil head coming rigth thru the area!
June 15, 2008 11:04 AM
 

Brett34 said:

NOTICE the cell on the west side of the line - just exploding.  They are moving into a more unstable atmosphere, they look to be taking on invdividual cells now, which makes for higher chance for rotating storms, but they are probabably are going through that reorganizing stage right now, I really dont think they will be weak once they reach our area, just a though.  
June 15, 2008 11:04 AM
 

Dwxtracker said:

Jonathan, that wasn't one of the team that posted that, that was MrSteve.
June 15, 2008 11:04 AM
 

PilotS77 said:

HailJonathan,

What makes you say it is weakening? From what I see it is actually strengthening.

John
June 15, 2008 11:04 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

there is already a gust front coming out of these storms that means there updrafts aren't sustaining.
June 15, 2008 11:07 AM
 

JPnKC said:

Brett34- good call- I noticed that as well..
June 15, 2008 11:07 AM
 

grumpyred said:

It would be nice to have a heads up, do I continue to pack picnic for the lake or do I call hubby to come home?

I agree chase, we tend to get forgotten
June 15, 2008 11:08 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

oh..well I feel sheepish.
June 15, 2008 11:08 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

oh I get it now Mr steve was replying to Jenn's comment...I always thought that when there were ********* that it meant that one of the team was replying to the comments. I'm an idiot sorry.
June 15, 2008 11:11 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

John...It's just an observation, but when you zoom in real close on the radar you can see a gust front shooting out from them which means the thunderstorms are having a hard time sustaining their intense updrafts. that's as far as I know.
June 15, 2008 11:12 AM
 

juba said:

I didn't think it was possible for a  severe thunderstorm watch to be a PDS watch, but it said winds in excess of 90 MPH, so. . .. . .
June 15, 2008 11:13 AM
 

juba said:

NBC Action Weather Blog
The blog and SEVERE T-STORM WATCH
Good morning NBC Action News Weather bloggers,

There is a moderate risk for this afternoon and this evening.  A Severe T-Storm Watch is in effect today.  Severe thunderstorms are already forming and heading right towards us.  We will monitor the situation closely. The main threat is a bow echo producing very strong winds.

I want to thank each of you for the fantastic growth and participation in the blog.  It is this type of community support that certainly fosters a place to communicate and learn about weather.  Having said this, I want to take a moment to address some recent issues on the blog.  

During regular weather days, the team here actively tries to address all questions posed on the blog.  We spend many hours participating, in addition to our regular work!  We make time to blog from both work and from home.  During these normal times, things seem to generally remain weather related or otherwise in check on the blog.  During severe weather situations, recently the blog has invited some off topic and derogatory comments to other bloggers.

As I have watched the growth of this blog; the experience, knowledge, and passion of the blogger bas has expanded immensely.  This is terrific!  We invite those that have a great deal of experience, as well as those that have none.  This blog is great when ideas are exchanged, and you are respectful to others through this learning process.  We rely on you for observations, rain totals, and other weather related information around our area.  This is so critically important to our success!

When the weather gets exciting during severe weather, our team does not have enough time to monitor the blog as much as we would like to.  We are working to provide our viewers the best analysis and working to communicate in advance where we believe the risk to be.  At this time, we simply cannot be available for every question in the blog.  When we are away, we need everyone to be responsible for their how they interact with others.  We need everyone to remain on topic as it relates to weather, and most of all, we need everyone to rmain toloerant and open minded to those that may have different opinions.  There is a very broad cross section of people participating now, and each of us can learn from all of our ideas as it relates to weather.

I am asking that everyone remain focused on Kansas City's crazy weather and to be kind to your fellow blogger.  If this cannot be done, we will have to take further steps to eliminate this type of behavior.  Ths blog is so valuable and such a great tool, that we would hate to have to make changes because of a few bad comments or situations.  

Please try to get along, and where we disagree, be respectful. Most importantly, lets stay on topic regarding weather, as there are many days where we start to chat about our lives, and get into some topics that are quite personal and emotional.  Try to find another way to do this, through email.  If we all do this, the blog will continue to be a great resource for many and provide value to all that participate.

Have a great day!  We will talk about today's developing weather situation soon.

Gary





Published Sunday, June 15, 2008 6:39 AM by glezak
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Comments
  juba said:
Might not blog for a while, my thumb has a cut that is giving of some stick whit fluid that won't whipe away!
June 15, 2008 7:13 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
Gary, Thank you so much for stepping in and saying that, I want to be able to come here and express my feelings about the weather no matter whether I'm exited when supercells develop or whether I'm scared of them. I feel a responsibility to help calm  people down during times of "panic" and then i get criticized for just being a "hobbyist" and I don't know what I'm talking about or on the other hand I shouldn't feel the way I do about thunderstorms because people get hurt in thunderstorms. One can't help their emotions and i'm just really glad you said that and now that you have, it will be much easier for me to ignore the nastier comments said in the blog. I always have though you guys have done a prestige job in the way you forecast and i will never stop relying on you as long as your around. Much love.

Jonathan Katz
June 15, 2008 7:20 AM  
  smb625 said:
Hate to repost here, but I posted this question last night and never got an answer.  Since the blog this morning didn't go into much detail yet, I'm really anxious to get an answer from ANYONE, whether it be the weather team or one of you many knowledgable bloggers!!! We leave in an hour if we're going and I'd GREATLY appreciate a response from someone! Thank you!!!

"I know it's hard to say already probably, but I'm just curious as to whether or not you still think this may be an afternoon event tomorrow?  Is it something that will blow through and be done?  We're planning on going to WOF tomorrow for father's day and driving an hour and a half to get there.  I'd just hate to waste the money/gas if there's a good chance of us getting "stormed out".  We are planning on being there when it opens.  Any thoughts on whether we should postpone?? Thanks!!"

June 15, 2008 7:21 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
HI SMB! Right now everything is all clear, but later this morning into early afternoon storms should have already developed and begin moving in from the NW to the SE, Very Large Hail and Straight line winds up to and exceeding 75 mph are not out of the question with the storms according to the NWS briefing that they just came out with. So I'd say go and have fun but just watch the sky and WOF authorities will tell you when you need to take shelter because I DONT THINK that the storms should last that terribly long as the average thunderstorm only lasts about 20 minutes. Just be aware today. but have fun.
June 15, 2008 7:29 AM  
  tirzah2 said:
This blog site is great for us who are involved with the every changing weather as you guys are.  I hope those who take the liberty to be 'emotional' respect that this is a professional blog page and the protocols associated with this are followed.  This blog not only serves as a tool for our weather team but also for us, as we can not see what our neighboring cities are seeing during a storm, etc.

It would be a crying shame if the abuse gets out of control to the point you have to make a decision to shut this page down Gary because of a few rotten apples.  Rude behavior doesn't exhibit the pride of Kansas City.

I find this blog very exciting to get involved in and am always amazed at the knowledge some of our blogs demonstrate. Every day I come here to see what is posted and the comments my fellow bloggers make.  The weather here is truely exceptional and to forecast it is even more exceptional.  Keep up all the good work you guys are doing and I praise you for all the hard work you take to keep us informed.

PS  My grandmother once told me, as she was washing my mouth out with soap; "it doesn't take any intelligence to cuss."  That was one lesson I never forgot. :)

June 15, 2008 7:30 AM  
  smb625 said:
Thank you Hail!  I love thunderstorms and all, but just not severe weather when I'm not in the comfort of my own home and watching!  When there are storms, I am on the computer looking at all the radars the whole time, it drives me nuts when we're away from home and I can't do that! lol I hated to "jump the gun" and say we should wait, when my kids have been looking forward to this for so long.  So we'll go ahead and give it a shot.  Thank you again for answering, I was so worried no one would! :)
June 15, 2008 7:42 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
no problem Smb, have a good time, like I said just be aware and watch the sky, I'm sure you know what it looks like when a storm is about to hit, our tornado threat is farely low today but like I always say you can never rule out a tornado with any severe thunderstorm but while being ontop of mamba  you'll have a great view of that;-) HAVE FUN! Ride the new Patriot for me!
June 15, 2008 7:47 AM  
  smb625 said:
Hail, we haven't been to WOF for a looong time and I LOVE roller coasters about as much I love storms! :)  I'm excited to try out all the new ones.  I'm trying to convince my 12 year old son how awesome roller coasters are as well! :)  
June 15, 2008 7:56 AM  
  LRCfan said:
Thunderstorms in Nebraska look like they are already turning southeast toward us looks like after lunchtime they will make it down here with a threat of wind and hail everyone keep an eye on the sky and also happy father's day to the dads out there.
June 15, 2008 7:57 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
smb I didn't start riding roller coasters til I was 20 but once you step into the roller coaster world you never leave. I'm with you about thunderstorms. If there is even a chance of thunderstorms on a given day. I don't leave my computer and i'm on radar and satellite all day long!
June 15, 2008 8:01 AM  
  johnj said:
I've learned more about weather in the six months I've been reading this blog than in my other 53 years combined.  Thanks one and all for the opportunity!

If someone should make a comment that might be offensive or just plain dumb, PLEASE just roll your eyes, mumble something to yourself, and.........move on to the next blog entry.  There's no need to reply to that.  We're here (hopefully) to learn and to share weather experiences and that's all.  Not complain about other's opinions.  My 2 cents.

And Gary--thanks for scheduling today's storms in daylight hours.  They're awesome to watch approach and not quite so scarey!

----------------

Great addition to our statement today.  Thanks!  And, let's hope it isn't too bad today.  The US Open is on, and I would rather not cut into programming at all.

Gary

June 15, 2008 8:02 AM  
  kcroyals05 said:
Weather team.

Great job last week in covering the severe weather events that unfolded in the viewing area and of those that developed to our north in Iowa.  The caputuring of the formation of the tornado like was awsome.  I have a co worker who now watches your station, he saw that footage, recognized that the storm was headed his way, got the pets in and was ready for the storm.  Again great job!!!

I for one understand that you cannot always "monitor" the blog and I agree 100 percent with you Gary on the above post.   We all need to get along, and think before we type.

I wasn't able to get on the last couple of days so here's the rain total for my area of Grandview --- .90 inches.   I think that puts us near 7.50 inches for the month.

In closing, Melissa and I would like to wish all the dad's out there and at the station a "HAPPY FATHERS DAY"

Bill

------------

Bill,

Thank you!  And, for the rainfall report too.  We are only halfway through the month.  

Gary

June 15, 2008 8:06 AM  
  irishrover said:
Thanks, Gary.  I am mostly a lurker.... and rainfall total adder (once I get a new rain gauge...mine died) but I'm on here daily and I hate to see the negativity.... I don't agree with some of what's said but then, I'm sure there are many who would not agree with me so I respect their opinions.  It's been tough to see so much of it lately.  I hope everyone takes your blog to heart and keeps to the theme.... weather.  And keep a positive attitude.
Have a super Sunday and Happy Father's Day!! I hope Stormy and Breezy take you for a nice long walk !!

----------------

They are taking me for a walk right now!  Then, the new data will be here.

Gary

June 15, 2008 8:09 AM  
  MikeTrainor1 said:
Good post Gary. I think it's a shame that every now and then you need to remind folks about the intent of this blog. That said, I certainly understand how "emotional" weather can be. I find this blog invaluable. Though I don't post anywhere near as much as I used to, I still follow it daily and am amazed at the knowledge that is shared by everyone. I've seen many who post here grow in their knowledge too. Very gratifying. I'm still just a neophyte, but I learn from you and the team and from others here too.

Keep up the most excellent work and thanks for having this blog here for us. - Mike T.

--------------------

Mike,

We love your input! Thanks for being part of the blog.

Gary

June 15, 2008 8:18 AM  
  DaveC said:
I agree Gary, I got accused a week ago over being mean toward another blogger, but I was more critical of the attitude this blogger was having and the direction this blog has taken lately which appears to be more dr. phil related than weather. Plus I do realize the nature of this blog allows certain people to become more self-realized experts. I do agree with a poster back on friday that we should strive to stay weather related on this blog and non-weather discussions do not belong here. And as of late I've seen more people use this place to share their misfortunes in life and I really feel that conversation needs to over all exist in other places. I may be wrong, but I know I'm not alone in this thinking.

Cheers and lets enjoy some storms today!

-----------------------

Great points!

Gary

June 15, 2008 8:21 AM  
  momof3 said:
HAPPY FATHER'S DAY!!!!!  I hope that we can weed out the bad apples some way.  THey are really very few and far between.  I would be totally lost without this blog between the weather team keeping us so up to date and the bloggers who seem so knowledgable (hailjonathon, scott, kristy) I can just enjoy these storms.   I check the blog at least 3 or 4 times a day and it would be such a shame to not have it anymore.  As they say a few can ruin it for everybody.  Thank you for addressing this problem and hopefully those people who are acting up will just not come back anymore!  Everyone have a great day stay safe and hopefully we will have some big storms later on!!!!
June 15, 2008 8:25 AM  
  spotter said:
gary and team great job on coverage during severe weather. we will have to watch the weather to the north as it moves south.also i will be out later on the chase is there another way i can send you information on storms while we are on the move.
June 15, 2008 8:45 AM  
  bgmike said:
I am out of town but I did check some stuff this morning.  Uhhh, did you see this forecasted cape for Lawrence, KS today??

http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace.cgi?model=NAM&fcsthr=021&STATIONID=klwc

Oh my, that is insane.  That can't be true.....can it?  What is the highest cape you have seen in this area, Gary?

Later,
Mike in Texas, today


June 15, 2008 8:56 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
Mesoscale Discussion Out for the metro Weather Watch likely By 10 AM
June 15, 2008 9:03 AM  
  spotter said:
nws say possible new watch will be issued in the next hour .
June 15, 2008 9:06 AM  
  grumpyred said:
are we under one now... severe thunderstorm watch?
June 15, 2008 9:10 AM  
  spotter said:
yes new severe thunderstorm watch till 5 pm entire area.
June 15, 2008 9:13 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
Severe T Storm Watch Now in affect. I will gather statistics now!
June 15, 2008 9:13 AM  
  grumpyred said:
weather.gov    
National Weather Service
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC001-003-005-009-013-015-017-027-029-031-041-043-045-053-059-
061-073-079-085-087-089-091-103-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-123-
127-131-139-141-143-149-155-157-159-161-167-169-173-177-183-197-
201-207-209-152200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0539.080615T1410Z-080615T2200Z/

KS
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN                ANDERSON            ATCHISON
BARTON               BROWN               BUTLER
CHASE                CLAY                CLOUD
COFFEY               DICKINSON           DONIPHAN
DOUGLAS              ELLSWORTH           FRANKLIN
GEARY                GREENWOOD           HARVEY
JACKSON              JEFFERSON           JEWELL
JOHNSON              LEAVENWORTH         LINCOLN
LINN                 LYON                MARION
MARSHALL             MCPHERSON           MIAMI
MITCHELL             MORRIS              NEMAHA
OSAGE                OSBORNE             OTTAWA
POTTAWATOMIE         RENO                REPUBLIC
RICE                 RILEY               RUSSELL
SALINE               SEDGWICK            SHAWNEE
SMITH                WABAUNSEE           WASHINGTON
WOODSON              WYANDOTTE

June 15, 2008 9:13 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
oh my god..this is real...we are under a PDS severe thunderstorm watch. I'VE NEVER SEEN THIS BEFORE! HOLD FOR FURTHER INFORMATION!
June 15, 2008 9:15 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (5%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
High (70%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (50%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)
June 15, 2008 9:17 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
This is a Particularly Dangerous Situation. WITHOUT a very real threat for tornadoes. I am Smiling very big right now not because i'm happy for severe weather but because something I theorized actually exists. wow!
June 15, 2008 9:18 AM  
  grumpyred said:
Is there any concern for the storms out west, or is it just the ones in Nebraska?
June 15, 2008 9:18 AM  
  Matt P said:
HailJonathan et all, yes, I refer to "hobbyist", but that's not a slam at all nor is it intended to be.  I apologize if you're offended.  There are some very knowledgeable people on this blog.  But the are some who have been growing yet still have a lot to learn.  There have been several people who have told people on this site that they are in the clear and don't need to worry.  While it may seem to be wise to help keep people calm, it's better for them to monitor what the weather team has to say. If you're using information that the weather team or the SPC has provided, that's one thing.  But a lot of it is self speculation. There have been multiple times where the radar doesn't show anything, but Gary or other members of the team have mentioned about storms that are about to develop, and they have.  In the meantime, the person is awoken to severe storms, even though they were "safe" for the night.
 Have a great day!

 
June 15, 2008 9:19 AM  
  Ryan Spencer said:
Man, what a treat for Father's Day. This severe weather pattern needs to stop ASAP.
June 15, 2008 9:21 AM  
  grumpyred said:
Matt, Keep in mind when the storms hit, some us lose satelitte or power.  I am stuck with my sidekick,  so I rely entirely on this blog to keep me informed with whats going on with the radar.  I, myself  have no complaints with them telling me I'm in the clear or heads up.  They are all I have.
June 15, 2008 9:26 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
no matt i'm not offended at all, I just think you need to put a little more faith in some of the hobbyists out there, but really we just shouldn't be talking about this anymore. because I don't want this blog to be shut down, I love it too much.
June 15, 2008 9:27 AM  
  Emmysmom said:
Any thoughts on an ETA for these storms, and possibly how long they may stick around?  And if we get them early, is that it for the day/evening, or do we have more coming in this evening (which is when I thought most stations said this was coming anyway)?
June 15, 2008 9:27 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
Matt, another thing. I never Go against what Gary or Jeremy or any other of their weather team says. If they say that there is a high likely hood of the threat pressing south and east, that's what I say, if they say the threat still remains that a storm may refire after the Supposed initial line than I won't sound an all clear for anybody. but like I said I think we all understand each other and I'm glad that this has been brought up so Let just focus on the day ahead. it looks to be quite a day as I have never seen a PDS Severe T-Storm watch before.
June 15, 2008 9:30 AM  
  homemom said:
Hail,

Where are you seeing mention of PDS Severe T-storm watch??
June 15, 2008 9:32 AM  
  mamaof3girls said:
Thanks Gary, that needed to be said!! Good luck with the days events. You all look to be busy. Stay safe everyone.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS
June 15, 2008 9:33 AM  
  MikeTrainor1 said:
hailjonathan... what do you mean PDS? is that something from the nws or a term you are coining? when you say you've never seen this before, in what regard? just want to understand. thanks! - mt
June 15, 2008 9:34 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
Emmy's mom..ETA on these storms should be very late morning or approaching the noon hour to 1:30 depending on where you live in the metro...that's my thinking right now. I'd say stay tuned to KSHB in case Gary Breaks in. I don't have any thoughts on redevelopment at this time.
June 15, 2008 9:36 AM  
  dougbce said:
I think we're in for a wild ride this afternoon / late morning.  Just seems really odd getting a thunderstorm watch issued at 9 in the morning as opposed to our traditional 2 or 3 in the afternoon.  

My mom and step dad are tent camping at Truman Lake this weekend.  I think it's time to call them and tell them to have there stuff picked up in the next couple of hours.  I don't think there tent is going to mix real well with these storms rolling through.

Gary, I walked my friends Malumute the other night and I think he pulled my shoulder out of socket dragging me up and down the street.  That dog is bigger than me.

Gary, thanks for the blog and for the people that are getting out of hand I agree just ignore them and move on.  
June 15, 2008 9:38 AM  
  MollyFaith said:
Darn it I have to drive to Topeka about noon and then head to Lawrence about 3 to drop my son off at KU basketball camp...I will watch the weather as much as I can but do we know what time this should hit...I wish for some boring weatherand for this storm to move in another direction!!
June 15, 2008 9:38 AM  
  spotter said:
i have never seen a severe thunderstorm watch with a pds watch weathbug just came out with this information.they are saying 90 mph winds hail to 3 in dangerous lighting.
June 15, 2008 9:38 AM  
  JPnKC said:
I too have never seen a PDS SVR TSTORM WATCH-- Particularly Dangerous Situation....ususally associated with Tornado Watches....very interesting
June 15, 2008 9:38 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
a PDS means Particularly Dangerous Situation. If you go to weather.gov and click on Severe Weather and then click on current watches, the one issued for the Kansas City area is labeled as a "PDS" because it states in there that hail up to 3 inches in diameter is possible and thunderstorm wind gusts to 90 mph are possible with the thunderstorms that enter or form in the watch box. i've already read up on it. but if you want to check it out for yourself it's Weather.gov and click on "Severe Weather" on the left hand side.
June 15, 2008 9:38 AM  
  Emmysmom said:
Thanks, Hail!  Looks like it will be church and home then.  We live up north near Liberty, so we'll be getting it first.
June 15, 2008 9:40 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
I'm sorry I forgot to mention. yes I Have seen PDS watches before but ONLY in the form of Tornado Watches NEVER in the form of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. I'm not saying it's never happened but I'm just saying this is the first time I've ever seen it and I think it's a rare occurance.
June 15, 2008 9:40 AM  
  Chase said:
Good gravy that cell up north looks mean!  

I didn't know they issued PDS type watches for Severe T-Storms, I thought it was only for Tornado watches.

Good thing I don't have any plans for today as I'll most likely be corralling my 7 cats & dog into the bathroom again.  They freak out when it starts hailing...Well I do too though. lol


I do have a question though, I saw where bgmike mentioned something called a CAPE.  What is that exactly & why is it important?  Please bear with me I'm pretty new to all this.  I've lived in tornado alley all my life but never really understood why storms do what they do.  So I  love to learn about them even if I am hiding under the bed scared half outta my wits while doing so.
June 15, 2008 9:40 AM  
  KellyHightower said:
What time will the strong winds and hail get here?  Should I go to church?  which  gets out at 12:15,  home about 1 p.m.?
June 15, 2008 9:40 AM  
  dougbce said:
Mike Trainor, the NWS issues PDS sometimes when it is exactly that  a Particularly Dangerous Situation.  Here is there right up on the Thunderstorm Watch.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0539.html

June 15, 2008 9:41 AM  
  maryb said:
PDS   Particularly Dangerous Situation....just saw it posted at NOAA
June 15, 2008 9:41 AM  
  Matt P said:
MikeTrainor1, a PDS is a 'pretty dangerous situation".  The SPC doesn't issue many of these, so they're worth keeping an eye on them.
June 15, 2008 9:42 AM  
  Matt P said:
LOL!  I think I just typed in "pretty", not "particularly".  Yeesh.  I knew that, but my mind isn't working this morning.
June 15, 2008 9:43 AM  
  Dwxtracker said:
PDS - Particularly Dangerous Situation/.

This is a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

I have not ever seen one of these before. I am not quite sure what to make of it. I think it means that they are expecting extreme hail and/or extremely dangerous wind. Ah, here we go:
EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...LARGE HAIL
 TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN
 THESE AREAS.

David
June 15, 2008 9:45 AM  
  grumpyred said:
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (50%)

NOOOOOOO don't wanna replace roof again.


June 15, 2008 9:46 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
CAPE-Convective Available Potential Energy. I don't really understand it a whole lot. but really the marginal number for Severe thunderstorms to break out is about 2000 what his map indicated was the CAPE approaching 7000 which I don't buy I just read the last mesoscale discussion and they are indicating a CAPE of 3000-4000 developing over our area well strong enough to support Severe thunderstorms.
June 15, 2008 9:46 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
David isn't that amazing. those are numbers you usually find in a tornado watch. but the threat for tornadoes is low today.
June 15, 2008 9:47 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
Lol that's okay matt we all do it a time or two.=)
June 15, 2008 9:48 AM  
  Holmes524 said:
Over protective mom here.  2 daughters work at WOF.  One is going in 11:45 and one who works at 3.  Anyone want to give me an estimate as to when the storms will move in and any guesses as to how long these will last?
Last really big storm we had middle daughter was at work and really scared her.  Even though they closed she still had to walk from inside the park to the parking lot.  
June 15, 2008 9:48 AM  
  grumpyred said:
what does the cape mean for lawrence that mike was talking about for lawrence?  That's getting close to me :(
June 15, 2008 9:50 AM  
  WEATHERdude said:
GOOD MORNING ALL!!!!

and a happy fathers day!

Gary, that was very well said... arent you glad that you have that fine print at the bottom saying "The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of this station." LOL but anyway thank you all again for really being helpful and great and a part of the blog!

Juba, sorry to hear about your thumb :(

Kelly... i think that you may want to go to an earlier church time... these storms seem to be moving in quite fast.

These storms look nasty and headed our way, everyone be safe!
June 15, 2008 9:53 AM  
  MikeTrainor1 said:
ah. got it. many thanks to you all for clarifying.
June 15, 2008 9:55 AM  
  PilotS77 said:
Good morning all!!

The storms are coming and I think that they will be loud - but hopefully will not last long. As for Tornadoes, one can never eliminate the probability of tornadoes, however North to South moving storms in general have less of a Tornado threat associated with them. However 90 MPH winds can do a lot of damage to roofs and also trees and small structures - also sometimes low clouds are sometimes mistaken for tornadoes - taking cover makes sense.

Be safe and lets hope these storms only provide a learning experience and do no damage.

John
June 15, 2008 9:55 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
Holmes, Holmes the storms should make it here in the next 2-4 hours. I can imagine that this must be scary. this is a scary situation. you have to make the best decision here. the storms do look to be quite nasty according to the Storm Prediction center.
June 15, 2008 9:55 AM  
  StormWyndd said:
Nuts, more severe weather!  Man, I hope it either clouds up, or something happens to difuse this situation.  This is more like hurricane winds, which if it comes into the city is going to be more wide spread than a tornado would be.  :o(, argh, my poor garden.  
June 15, 2008 9:58 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
I've been reading information on some of the warnings up in NE and so far they don't seem all that severe just your average 60 mph wind gust and nickel sized hail. but I can't find any really severe wind or hail reports. At least as of now.
June 15, 2008 9:59 AM  
  JPnKC said:
Holmes524- In my opinion.....Looking at the radar- and the speed of the complex of storms moving in from the NW- I would guess between 12-1...hope this helps....
June 15, 2008 9:59 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
Good words John.
June 15, 2008 10:01 AM  
  StormWyndd said:
Thanks JP, I have to run to the store, I was curious how I could find out just how fast these things are moving.  
June 15, 2008 10:03 AM  
  Holmes524 said:
Thanks Hail and JP.  Luckily both kids work inside buildings and not running rides.  It still isnt comforting knowing what is headed this way.  The storms look pretty strong.  Thank goodness I live 5 minutes away and can pick them up in minutes.
June 15, 2008 10:04 AM  
  auroramama said:
Wow, I have never seen a PDS issued in regards to a Severe T-Storm Watch either.  Ugh.  I was sitting here scratching my head trying to figure out what was going to hit us until I finally put tracks on that storm up north, I see it is moving south.  Weird.  
June 15, 2008 10:06 AM  
  KellyHightower said:
Ok thanks!  changing my plans!  
June 15, 2008 10:07 AM  
  Tinpusher said:
Gary and Team, I was wondering, with everyone mentioning PDS SVR  T-STORM  WATCH, if this setup today is very similiar to what hit St. Louis 2 years ago?   Time to batten down the hatches again.  Thank you for stepping in and hopefully settling down the blog a little.  This is a great tool, and I love reading it.  

Alan
June 15, 2008 10:10 AM  
  Tim in West Shawnee said:
Nice blog, Gary.  I remember back 2-3 years ago and there weren't 10% of the people now that check this blog out.  Your station has done a great job promoting it and the content is great -- whether its keeping us up to date with stormy weather or snow events to even topics such as "cloud discussions" during the summer when weather-wise things really quiet down.  Definately a learning experience at all times!

As for today, can you see what you can do to hold off the storms till, say 4:30 or so?  I have to BBQ for 15-20 people this afternoon around 3-3:30! :)

About breaking into programming -- here's an alternative.  Can you put a crawl at the bottom (or top) of 41.1 telling folks to tune into 41.2 (Weather +) for live reports -- and you can break into that channel with live stuff as much as you want?  I personally don't mind breaking into coverage but lets see here.. US Open.. Tiger Woods in the lead, I can already predict the # of people complaining that they didn't get to see "this" shot or "that" shot of his.  Oh well.  Up to you guys, thats why they pay you the big bucks :)

Happy Fathers Day everyone,
Tim
June 15, 2008 10:11 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
I saw that 90 mph wind thrown in the Severe T-Storm Watch Discussion and I was just like...uhhh..wow. i'm going to go check on the warnings again but last time i checked I didn't seen any major severe weather on those warnings up in NE. but I'm going to check again.
June 15, 2008 10:11 AM  
  farmgirl said:
Any chance these will weaken as they head south? Got that awful stomach churning feeling going on again. I am SICK of this weather!
June 15, 2008 10:13 AM  
  MrSteve said:
What do I think?

I think this is getting ridiculous. We've been in the bulls eye since last Dec 1.

Way to much to deal with.
June 15, 2008 10:14 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
Just took a look at all the warnings again. I'm still only seeing things like "in excess of 60 mph" or penny to quarter size hail. so right now there is nothing out there PDS but this could change.
June 15, 2008 10:14 AM  
  Larry2KCDaily said:
Just stepped out and looked north. Clouds are rolling. Definite darking to the north here in Lawrence.
June 15, 2008 10:16 AM  
  JustinG said:
I got this from Wikipedia concerning a PDS T-storm watch.

"PDS severe thunderstorm watches are issued when there is a greater risk of severe wind damage capable of major structural damage (in addition to large hail and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes), usually due to a strong derecho. They are very rare (an average of only two each year) as the tornado risk has to remain low enough to only warrant a severe thunderstorm watch (a tornado watch would be issued if the tornado risk is significant alongside the wind threat)."
June 15, 2008 10:21 AM  
  Dwxtracker said:
Hows Half Dollar sized hail Jonathan?
AT 955 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  
June 15, 2008 10:21 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
GARY, JEREMY, SOMEBODY please break in with weather coverage. the show or infomercial or whatever is on your channel right now is absolutely ABSURD!
June 15, 2008 10:21 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
I didn't see that one. but that's still I don't wanna say "only" golf ball but still they're saying 3 inch hail.
June 15, 2008 10:23 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
there's a Destructive 70 mph wind gust with penny sized hail up in central Iowa right now but that's not headed down here.
June 15, 2008 10:27 AM  
  grumpyred said:
I second that Johnathan, if this a pds I would like to know more about it rather  than the ultimate healing book
June 15, 2008 10:27 AM  
  siegel12 said:
I woke up 20 minutes ago to a rapid increase of cloud cover and 80 degrees with humidity. Then I discovered we're in a Particularly Dangerous Situation, with winds expected over 90 mph. I'm tracking the storms and they are still disorganized. What I am seeing towards St. Joseph though is concerning. There is considerable outflow, it seems, indicated by an area of light green that is currently over St. Joseph. The storms are currently in a complex, but if the bowout becomes more organized, we could see incredible winds possibly approaching, as the PDS indicates, 90 miles per hour. That will cause significant damage. Currently, winds in the storms are 60-70 mph.
June 15, 2008 10:30 AM  
  MrSteve said:
Actually the sensationalism around these storms at this point is becoming more exhausting then the storms themselves. Face it we can't beat mother nature.
We have to work with her or around her. Fact.

Be aware, be prepared, be calm. Don't drive your car directly under tornados hoping to get on you tube. Or go out into the front yard when a funnel is close thinking wow look at that, and it's getting bigger too!  (You know, complicated things like that)








June 15, 2008 10:31 AM  
  Jenn6428 said:
Does anyone know about what time we can expect these storms here in the metro?
June 15, 2008 10:32 AM  
  grumpyred said:
lol Mrsteve
June 15, 2008 10:37 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
yeah siegel I am unsure of the storms future. they don't appear to be doing much I see them maybe bowing out a little but the echoes are not that strong. and with substantial strong bow echoes it usually goes from nothing to RED on the radar returns you don't see a whole lot of green before the red like we are seeing today. I think anyway if anybody more knowlegeable wants to speak now. DO speak now or forever hold your peace.
June 15, 2008 10:37 AM  
  legalpractice said:
Perfectly still in St. Joe with the rumble of thunder in the distance.  
June 15, 2008 10:38 AM  
  gmajc said:
I'm a novice weather watcher.  What is a derecho?
June 15, 2008 10:38 AM  
  MrSteve said:
Jenn6428 said:
Does anyone know about what time we can expect these storms here in the metro?
****************************

I don't know but we're going out into the back yard to do a "no rain-no storm dance" ceremony to see if we can turn them east instead of south east.


June 15, 2008 10:39 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
they are already starting to enter the metro now. St Joseph is about to get hit.
June 15, 2008 10:40 AM  
  Brett34 said:
Called dad for father's day in McLouth- or just outside of McLouth in unassociated Springdale, he advised that it is getting pretty loud there.  I can't believe they are coming in this early!  I was thinking 4 or 5.  Looks like maybe still a potential even once the initial line moves through....of all days not to bring my camera w/ me.  
I though it would hold off.  Guess not.  I can do without the hail though.  Still have to watch for bow segments forming.  Its racing into a very unstable atmosphere, we could be in for a flash flood event that's for sure.  Went out at work at lunch and moved car under a tree, whats worse a tree on your car or less hail damage- lol.
June 15, 2008 10:42 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
there is already more redevelopment where the original MCS started.
June 15, 2008 10:42 AM  
  siegel12 said:
Jenn6428, storms are around 75 minutes north and northwest of here, moving SE at 45 miles per hour. Depending on their speed, storms become likely within the next couple of hours. They will certainly impact the metro by mid afternoon.
The latest warnings on storms moving our direction are still only marginal severe. If you have family east of the metro, however, let them know they may be in for some serious thunderstorms. There are currently storms over Southwestern and Southern Iowa producing winds approaching hurricane force.
June 15, 2008 10:45 AM  
  Mammatus said:
gmajc... A Derecho is a wide spread damaging wind event. Caused by a severe line of thunderstorms over a large area.
June 15, 2008 10:45 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
okay and how do you see this happening, do a break in or something there are people concerned.
June 15, 2008 10:45 AM  
  farmgirl said:
I agree with you Hail, this infomercial is less important than what is going on up North. The alarmist channel is scaring the heck out of the public again.... including me. I keep switching back and forth hoping to catch a glimpse of Gary.

Just went up on the roof to try and secure the chimney cap. It's hopeless. It is so banged up from the last storm that it is sure to come off again. Nothing worse than waiting for this big storm!
June 15, 2008 10:46 AM  
  auroramama said:
It looks to me like most of the storm is losing its warnings.  Is that a possibility or will they just pick up speed again when they enter the metro?
June 15, 2008 10:47 AM  
  whirlygirl said:
First, if Gary or any of the team felt there was a need to break in they would. You will have to suffer with whatever they choose to program with and not complain. I will watch the blog but I really feel that what Gary has posted is sufficent for now and that if anything changes he will break in at an appropriate time and that's who I plan to get my updates from.
June 15, 2008 10:47 AM  
  Dwxtracker said:
I don't know, but the main line of storms seems to have lost some of its punch. It looks rather disorganized, with the only significant weather on the trailing two cell that are not part of the line yet. Maybe the clouds that are spreading in are killing off some of the instability?
June 15, 2008 10:48 AM  
  Mammatus said:
HailJonathan. That line is heading into very unstable air so i wouldn't be surprised to see some 70+ mph gusts. Im curious to see what happenes with the next Mcs that will develop and how the one heading in now will muck up the atmosphere. There is still alot of sun out west and north of the current Mcs so I would say we will see more development. I will have to say I have never seen a PDS Severe T-storm watch. Thats a new one to me.
June 15, 2008 10:48 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
thanks whirlygirl.
June 15, 2008 10:50 AM  
  Brett34 said:
That is what I was thinking, we may be in for more than the initial line- how far out ahead of the front is this line of storms anyway?  I noticed statements of a severe weather threat lasting through the evening hours in and north of the viewing area.
June 15, 2008 10:52 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
yeah I know mammatus but one of the team just anonomously posted something about a rain dance to make them turn east but I dont know what that means I wish they could have left us with more than that. My wife is going out in about in hour and I don't want to be separated from her with 90 mph winds possible

June 15, 2008 10:54 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
I noticed that David.
June 15, 2008 10:54 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
yeah this thing is totally weakening.
June 15, 2008 10:57 AM  
  PilotS77 said:
Indeed as I look at the storm it appears to become better organized as it moves South -I measured the deepest part of the active area of the storm to be 65 miles right now (10:58) almost double the size it was when it passed through Omaha!

We shall keep looking at this --

John
June 15, 2008 10:59 AM  
  Chase said:
Farmgirl I know what you mean.  When I looked out this morning the whole atmosphere just had that "stomach sinking" feel to it.   Then about 30 minutes later the weatherbug went off with the pds severe t-storm watch.

Don't know if it will be bad this far south (I'm in Osawatomie) but hopefully it won't be the kind of day my stomach is thinking it will be.

I went ahead & called family in Overland Park & Paola to let them know, as they were headed to church.  Didn't want them to come out to a possible surprise severe storm.

As for breaking into the programming, I'm not a big sports fan & that might be coloring my opinion, but if this puppy has a PDS on it & it enters our area then I say break in no matter what is showing.

I know Gary & the team are fantastic about keeping us all forewarned about these kinds of dangers & I in no way mean any disrespect with the above comment, so just keep up the excellent work guys!  

I might add a little don't forget about us down south of the metro note.  Sometimes I do feel like all the local stations tend to forget about us once the storms move out of the metro & down here in Miami & Linn counties.

Everyone stay safe today & Happy Father's Day!
June 15, 2008 11:01 AM  
  juba said:
This seems to be a bit west of where the NAM forecasted the MCS would form. Im in lawrence right now and I can see what looks like an anvil head coming rigth thru the area!
June 15, 2008 11:04 AM  
  Brett34 said:
NOTICE the cell on the west side of the line - just exploding.  They are moving into a more unstable atmosphere, they look to be taking on invdividual cells now, which makes for higher chance for rotating storms, but they are probabably are going through that reorganizing stage right now, I really dont think they will be weak once they reach our area, just a though.  
June 15, 2008 11:04 AM  
  Dwxtracker said:
Jonathan, that wasn't one of the team that posted that, that was MrSteve.
June 15, 2008 11:04 AM  
  PilotS77 said:
HailJonathan,

What makes you say it is weakening? From what I see it is actually strengthening.

John
June 15, 2008 11:04 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
there is already a gust front coming out of these storms that means there updrafts aren't sustaining.
June 15, 2008 11:07 AM  
  JPnKC said:
Brett34- good call- I noticed that as well..
June 15, 2008 11:07 AM  
  grumpyred said:
It would be nice to have a heads up, do I continue to pack picnic for the lake or do I call hubby to come home?

I agree chase, we tend to get forgotten
June 15, 2008 11:08 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
oh..well I feel sheepish.
June 15, 2008 11:08 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
oh I get it now Mr steve was replying to Jenn's comment...I always thought that when there were ********* that it meant that one of the team was replying to the comments. I'm an idiot sorry.
June 15, 2008 11:11 AM  
  HailJonathan said:
John...It's just an observation, but when you zoom in real close on the radar you can see a gust front shooting out from them which means the thunderstorms are having a hard time sustaining their intense updrafts. that's as far as I know.
June 15, 2008 11:12 AM  

Your comment or rating has been received. However, due to caching and moderation, it may not be displayed right away.

What do you think?
June 15, 2008 11:14 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

any bloggers from st joe on right now. if so what are you reporting?
June 15, 2008 11:16 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

why did you just do that?
June 15, 2008 11:20 AM
 

Dwxtracker said:

Juba, why do you do that? It is annoying, childish, and uncalled for.
June 15, 2008 11:21 AM
 

KellyHightower said:

I've had all I could take of that infomercial.  
June 15, 2008 11:27 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

I'm getting tired of waiting for this to be a PDS.
June 15, 2008 11:28 AM
 

suz01 said:

Once this round passes, are they calling for more storms to fire up later today or tonight? thx.
June 15, 2008 11:32 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

Oh my God kelly I know..I just turned that stupid thing off i don't even care if Gary breaks in anymore or not I just COULD NOT take it. LoL
June 15, 2008 11:33 AM
 

legalpractice said:

From St. Joseph: wind and moderate rain.  Nothing spectacular at all.  
June 15, 2008 11:33 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

thanks for the report LP.
June 15, 2008 11:34 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

suz there is already some redevelopment up in Nebraska following this first round I don't know if it's expected to be severe or not though.
June 15, 2008 11:35 AM
 

mstauss said:

The front of the storm just hit Trimble, MO (5 miles north of Smithville.)  Close to 40 mph winds and no hail.  No big deal but still kind of fun to watch.
June 15, 2008 11:36 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

okay this is just an Opinion...in MY OPINION...the SPC took this situation and put it under a micron microscope...
June 15, 2008 11:38 AM
 

farmgirl said:

Unfortunately it is still partly sunny down here in La Cygne. Don't think it will matter though if we get cloud cover. The south winds are really pumping in moisture. Kinda spooky, but had a dream about wind damage last night. Hope it doesn't come true!
Sure am glad the infomercial is over.... but what happened to our weather watch at the top of the screen?
June 15, 2008 11:39 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

thanks for the report mstauss
June 15, 2008 11:39 AM
 

siegel12 said:

Guys, this blog's for weather, not high school style drama.
Speaking of the weather, the humidity has definitely crept up in the last hour, to the point of being uncomfortable. Unless the thunderstorms explode over our region (not out of the question), marginal severe thunderstorms can be expected with the standard one-inch hail and/or damaging winds. I do not have the expertise to conclusively determine whether or not the storms will rapidly intensify between now and when they enter the metro (probably within the next 2-3 hours). I'm more worried about the ones from Manhattan to Leavenworth, because they seem to be separating from the complex.
June 15, 2008 11:40 AM
 

Watkins Gal said:

Rain & thunder in NW Ray County...near Lawson
June 15, 2008 11:43 AM
 

brian1234 said:

I'll be chasing north of the metro today, when I return I'll give my report
June 15, 2008 11:45 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

siegel. I don't really see any drama going on in here? we're discussing the thunderstorms.
June 15, 2008 11:45 AM
 

FIREEMS said:

getting quarter size hail in Pottawatomie county ks
June 15, 2008 11:45 AM
 

simplykristi said:

Nice blog, Gary!  Been trying to keep the stuff about my parents out of the blog. :)  That's why I have a journal with email alerts. :)  The link is in my profile.

I happen to notice that the yellow light on my weather radio was lit up.  I knew that there was a watch around.  I was already up and busy.  I don't have time to track storms today.  Real life is getting in the way.  Happy Father's Day to all the dads here on the blog!  Be safe with the approaching storms!

Kristi
June 15, 2008 11:46 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

Listen Guys. I don't want to be a negative nelly here. But everytime someone complains about the blog, whether it be high school drama (which I don't see) or another bloggers comment. It doesn't matter, EVERY SINGLE COMMENT makes it one step closer to Gary shutting down this blog so guys lets stick together here okay. It's tough sometimes I know it but I know we can all get along.
June 15, 2008 11:48 AM
 

PatsSoxCelts said:

very dark up here in Parkville
June 15, 2008 11:48 AM
 

auroramama said:

I've been sitting around watching radar seeing if we need to head to the in-laws basement.  I guess right now I'm thinking not.  
June 15, 2008 11:49 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

hey Kristi nice to see ya. I forgot to say something to all the dads here at the Blog. Happy fathers day!
June 15, 2008 11:49 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

thanks for the report Emergency medical Fireman!
June 15, 2008 11:50 AM
 

Stormdog said:

Stormdog here - just got DSL and what a difference!  As to what Gary noted, AMEN TO THAT SAY I!!!!

My June WX calendar, done on a print-out from Outlook, then scanned etc... is going to be a memorable one for the storm action - the best since I moved here in 2000 - sorry about all of the flooding and tornadoes - I love heavy rain - an inch or two at a time, the 5-6 days, then another round -- that way I would be happy, and no one would have to suffer the misery currently being suffered.  However, Stormdog does't walk on water, so there you go!!!

I wonder if the Summer will see a MCS ever few days or so - if so, would that approximate rather 1993 or not?  I don't exactly recall, as I watched that from Oklahoma that year.

Cheers to all, the father of Sheba (FANG) and Parker (THE BIG LUG) - both doglets.

Stormdog
June 15, 2008 11:51 AM
 

auroramama said:

What do you think Hail? (regarding my previous comment)

When the team isn't here on the blog you are my weatherman. :)
June 15, 2008 11:53 AM
 

Watkins Gal said:

Very gusty winds now...to go along with the rain...really dark too.
June 15, 2008 11:54 AM
 

farmgirl said:

Gary is posting weather info on the scrolling bar thing on 38.
June 15, 2008 11:56 AM
 

farmgirl said:

WatkinsGal, where are you located?
June 15, 2008 11:57 AM
 

whirlygirl said:

Well Hail, every time Juba does things like he does, or even when you say oh my god a PDS, it still stirs people up. Let's watch our words ok?
June 15, 2008 12:02 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

hey hey Aurora, right now I don't see anything terribly threatening. except for that huge purple cell heading for Topeka, Not us. The line does appear to be gaining back some strength though. i'm keeping a close eye on that.
June 15, 2008 12:02 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

All, I have a request.. Some of us don't know where each of you are by heart. So maybe when you post observations about the weather where you are maybe you could tell us approx. where you are located at? I have been trying to do this myself. That way people can see exactly where the weather is and have an idea of what is going on where.
Audra
June 15, 2008 12:03 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Yikes, 3" hail heading for Topeka with 70+ winds. That cell is looking nasty.
June 15, 2008 12:03 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

Also I just checked NOAA for my area, Lee's Summit. And we are under a severe thunderstorm watch but the watch does not say anything about a PDS. Am I just missing it or are we not under a PDS?
Audra
June 15, 2008 12:06 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Is there a weather site that shows wind velocity along with Hail size? Wunderground does a good job on hail size and storm tracks, but I don't see where it states wind speeds/gusts.
June 15, 2008 12:06 PM
 

grumpyred said:

Even some of the storm chasers are saying they've never seen a pds on a thunderstorm.

Jonathan, the topeka cell looks to be coming at me?
June 15, 2008 12:06 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

a slight bow segment developing west of the stateline on the Kansas side
June 15, 2008 12:07 PM
 

auroramama said:

Thanks Hail.  
June 15, 2008 12:07 PM
 

KellyHightower said:

I'm guessing WatkinsGal is near Watkins Mill State Park, which I understand from a scroll across another channel, is possibly getting hammered right now.
June 15, 2008 12:07 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

wow whirly girl I've never seen someone so out to get me...you just had to throw one more in there didn't you. okay I'm done.
June 15, 2008 12:09 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

where are you Laura?
June 15, 2008 12:09 PM
 

KellyHightower said:

I wish it would storm on these monster mud trucks on the tv right now
June 15, 2008 12:10 PM
 

FairwayMed said:

I was really liking the sunny weather here in Fairway this morning while I was mowing my lawn and a little sad to see such a nice day turn cloudy so fast. But I always do like the rain, I am just hoping for not too much hail or too much rain. I feel so bad for all of the people who have been displaced by the flooding.
June 15, 2008 12:10 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Also I just checked NOAA for my area, Lee's Summit. And we are under a severe thunderstorm watch but the watch does not say anything about a PDS. Am I just missing it or are we not under a PDS?


You should check the SPC.noaa.gov and click on watches. Then scroll down to the PDS one.
June 15, 2008 12:11 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

weatherfreak. go to weather.com and then on the left side, you'll see a section where it says "severe weather" click on that and then you'll see "Convective watches" and you'll click on that and you'll see a list of severe thunderstorm watches one of them will be labeled as a "Particularly Dangerous Situation(PDS)" and that one is ours.
June 15, 2008 12:12 PM
 

FIREEMS said:

listening to the scanner at work, they are reporting ping pong size hail at jefferies energy center in eastern pottawatomie county ks
June 15, 2008 12:12 PM
 

NorthlandGirl said:

I wasn't really paying much attention this morning as I was cooking up a storm and listening to music.  When it started to get dark I flipped on the TV to KSHB and panicked a bit when I saw a TStorm Warning had just been issued for Clay (me), Platte, and Ray counties!  But so far just some light rain, thunder, very light winds - no gusts to speak of at all, and very cool temps.  I can even open windows as the humidity and temps are much better!!  I must have been out of the Warning woods here at 169N and 108th St. - just a nice summer rain and thunder...
June 15, 2008 12:12 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

lol Kelly.
June 15, 2008 12:13 PM
 

grumpyred said:

Jonathan, I am between pomona and ottawa in franklin county.

This blog needs an iggy button
June 15, 2008 12:13 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I'm gonna say this one more time. ESPECIALLY to you whirly girl. THE BLOG RIGHT NOW is doing VERY WELL. Gary has explained perfectly well what he expects from us. If one of us does something stupid or says something another doens't agree with, IGNORE IT. EVERY TIME SOMEONE COMPLAINS is One step closer Gary comes to shutting the blog down. I Appologize if I am saying things that aren't appropriate here, I didn't know I was, but like Gary says you have to ignore it or there will never be peace here, PLEASE for the sake of the blog, just lets all have fun and chat about the weather.
June 15, 2008 12:16 PM
 

bewild79 said:

I saw some AWESOME rolling clouds about 15 min ago...
June 15, 2008 12:16 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

Because of everyones blog here today I am taking precautions and moving all my outdoor furnature to where it will be protected from the winds. I would really hate to have to chase it across the neighbors yards or fish it out of the pool. I don't if the precaution will be needed here in Lee's Summit, but better safe than sorry. Thanks everyone.
audra
June 15, 2008 12:18 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I agree laura...it's hard to say...unless the storm back builds to the south you might get missed.lets hope so!=)
June 15, 2008 12:18 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Anyway. Im just waiting for the storm
June 15, 2008 12:18 PM
 

grumpyred said:

new blog
June 15, 2008 12:18 PM
 

KellyHightower said:

Look up to the NW of downtown--you should see that cloud!  what's it called, a roll cloud?  I'm going to take a pic with my cell phone
June 15, 2008 12:19 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

i'm gonna get hit here in a few minutes hopefully harder rather than softer=P
June 15, 2008 12:20 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Mark GIVE amber her pill NOW if you haven't already!
June 15, 2008 12:20 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Are these storms moving quickly? Just wondering why NOAA has us in a flood watch.
June 15, 2008 12:21 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

the line is starting to strengthen at a steady pace now over the metro.
June 15, 2008 12:21 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Kelly it's called a shelf cloud=)
June 15, 2008 12:22 PM
 

rmemdv said:

Just had high winds blow though Lansing, KS.  Power has just went off running on battery backups
June 15, 2008 12:22 PM
 

chfs327 said:

NEW BLOG
June 15, 2008 12:24 PM
 

siegel12 said:

The temperature just dropped over ten degrees and the winds shifted to the north in Shawnee. Lots of dark clouds and gusty winds. The storms seem to have substantially sped up. Now, there's gusty winds 40-50 mph in Shawnee. Out north of Topeka, there is a massive cell producing close to hurricane-force winds, along with large hail and very heavy rain. That storm should miss us to the south. The metro area can expect heavy rain and gusty winds within the next hour. Storms should stay just below severe limits.
June 15, 2008 12:27 PM
 

Emmysmom said:

Anyone have any thoughts how long this might last and if there is more behind it?  
I'm up here near Liberty, five blocks for the May 5th tornado, and we had a small period of about 3 minutes where it rained heavy and the wind was blowing like crazy.  Now it's raining, blowing and thundering, but more like a typical spring/summer storm.  These are MUCH better than tornado storms!

I'm almost considering not reading this blog anymore, but mainly because of all the people who are constantly complaining.  If someone says something I dont approve of or like, I have learned to just got past their post(s).  Like this winter, when about 75% or more of the bloggers here were excited and cheering on the big snow storms (even some in the NBC weather center).  I just dont understand the thrill of the winter torms, as I fear them and hate driving in the snow, but I just ignored them.  And it seems to me that heavy snowstorms can be just as scary and dangerous as severe thunderstorms/tornado storms, but I dont remember this many people complaining about it then.
June 15, 2008 12:32 PM
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