NBC Action Communities

from previous blog
slim said:
Jeremy-
yes, there was an article in the paper last week questioning if it was a tornado, micro burst, or straight line winds that caused the damage. the article stated that the way the debris was thrown; people asked if it was a tornado.
June 17, 2008 12:00  
  slim said:
jeremy here is the link to the story
http://www.kansascity.com/news/breaking_news/story/662679.html
June 17, 2008 12:03  

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I am convinced it was a small tornado.  After what we saw, and have evidence of, in our live coverage that night, there were many small touchdowns just west of Shawnee, so it would be no surprise to me if one of those dipped down over Merriam.

Gary

Gary, I noticed that the severe thunder watch on Sunday for the KC area was tagged by NSW SPC as a PDS thunder watch. I've seen many tornado PDS watches over the years but never a thunder watch. The working used was EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH..LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER..AND DANGEROUS LIGHTING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREA.
Usually NSW talks about doing something different first and then defines things very specificially. This adds a new wrinkle to risk accessment  of a severe thunder event from a spotter angle. Wonder why the change and if it will be used in the future ?
In the spotter world, one does not usually go into the field for thunder watches.
Any info from your contacts.?

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I haven't discussed it with anyone yet.  I understand what they were thinking, but it really should have been thought out a bit more.  Those thunderstorms formed a bit too early in the day, and didn't allow for the heating necessary to make it into what they were thinking could happen.

Gary

Gary, just food for thought.  Remember that night, the trajectory of the storms were SW to NE.  Also, these quick spinups were on the leading edge of the storm, so that said...the one caught in Shawnee clearly was seen from the dropping wall cloud.

As that one was quite a bit further west than Merriam, and most of Shawnee as it was in far western Shawnee, I am inclined to think certainly it was not the same wall cloud that caused that in Merriam as it would be heading NE and not due east.

So, knowing the SW/NE movement, the wall cloud/funnel cloud that would have affected the Merriam area would have been further SW along the line.

As I remember watching the coverage, it seems there were two areas of interest throughout, one near Linwood that was tracked and one nearer to KMCI.

The Linwood tornado was caught on film, but I do not recall anything else being watched to the SW along the line.  You likely could review the footage to see if there was anything there.

I would not think of it as a microburt due to the mechanics of the storm, but would only consider a small tornado or straightline wind.  The referenced article states the following "Because the path of the damaging wind was narrow and its targets seem scattered, local officials speculated that a tornado rather than a straight-line wind was to blame."

I certainly understand the reasoning, but not sure I could jump fully to that same speculation.  Straight line winds can be just as sporatic and localized as a tornado.

Regardless, thankfully no one was hurt, there was high awareness of the situation and only "limited" damage was done.

Gary - regarding the PDS scenerio - while heating was not what you would think required to make it worthy of a PDS, there were pockets ahead of the line nearby with MLCAPEs of over 3K.

That is certainly sufficient for powerful growth.  With the large lapse rates and large sheer amounts, it seems plausible.  In addtion, initiation was already underway with reports of damage in SE NE.

As the storms were starting to root deeper in the boundary level, I certainly understand the concern regarding the PDS.

What kind of discussion would we be having if they did not do the PDS and it did materialize?  

Better safe than sorry especially when most of the key ingredients were there over a BROAD area.  Luckily, it didn't have much impact in OUR area.

The key to my statement about the  PDS thunder was it had never been used before, curious to see if anybody heard how  and exactly what is a PDS thunder watch is according to NSW.

JoCospotter,

Maybe it was a type or their version or shorthand--hehe.

typo--soz folks, I can't type either!

I don't know if anyone pays any attention to this, but Truman just made it to over 20 feet above normal pool... Can you imagine how much water it takes, including expansion to put a lake of that size up 20 feet? After last months flooding it had gotten down to just over 5 ft above pool, so it went up 15 feet in less than 2 weeks

Yeah, Truman gets a lot of water from the Osage river and the Marias des cygnes river in Kansas and they can't let out too much out of Truman Dam right now because of Lake of the Ozarks and all the flooding on the Mississippi. Hopefully we don't get much more rain anytiome soon. Bull shoals is over 35 feet I the last time I checked.

JoCospotter,

I understand what you are saying.  I have followed weather for over 40 years and that was the first time I am aware that the SPC had issued a PDS severe thunderstorm watch.  I event thought it might be a mistake until I read the meso discussion indicating - I think - the possiblity of 90 MPH winds or whatever the exact number was.  I also am not clear under what conditions or criteria they use to issue a PDS severe thunderstorm watch. Still, that is the only time I have ever seen them issue one that way.

Mike

Now if we start having PDS thunder watches, many cities/countys might have to rethink/rewrite spotter procedure. Also so far, I don't thing anyone sounds the sirens for severe thunderstorms, but even the smallest tornado, I believe, in most cities/countys must sound a tornado warning. I know the discussions on this both pro and con. Now if we have to start dealing with a non tornado convective event...at least warning wise...it could get very confusing for the general public and local emergency managers.  

Mammatus
What does letting water out of Truman have to do with flooding on the Mississippi. just curious, I have no clue.
thanks!

Hey there DfromWarsaw:  You know what struck me was last Tuesday, I went fishing on Tebo at Windsor Crossing.  From Monday evening till I came out Tuesday afternoon, the Corp's raised the boat dock 20 feet out of the water!  I about fell over when I saw it.  They knew it was comin'!  The boat ramp and campground is all under water now.  Jim in Clinton

Long time reader, fist time blogger.  I'm heading to Truman on June 28th?  Does anyone know what they are predicting the levels to be like by then?  Is there a place you can camp and put your boat in when the water is over 20 feet high?  Let me know.  Thanks.

Chris

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Chris,

I don't know the answers to all of your questions, but the weather does look great on Saturday.

Gary

PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watches have occasionally been issued by the SPC since 1989. The most recent I could find were watch #631 on 7/21/2006, #481 on 6/16/2004 and #380 on 2/02/04. There are no parameters established for defining a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch but in the past have been used almost exclusively for Derecho events or very strong bow echo systems

Although this could be the very first PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the Kansas City area

Also watch 481 from above 6/16/2005 not 2004

Slim. Truman lake is a flood control reservoir for the Missouri river. The Missouri river dumps into the mississippi river near St louis. Since the Mississippi is expected to flood from all the rains in Iowa as well as the Missouri River, Truman won't be able to let out much water till the end of the week. Below Truman dam is the start of Lake of the ozarks too and they are more of a recreational lake than Truman so they will do everything they can to keep Lake of the Ozarks at a reasonable water level. They are supposed to start releasing 20,000 cubic feet of water per second on Thursday or Friday and Lake of the Ozarks will be releasing large amounts too. That is a lot of water but I would bet there will be much higher releases next week if there isn't much more rain.

HvilleBCM - agreed.  I would think the PDS is specific to the extent of the potential wind damage/speeds anticipated.  And as you mentioned, normally that kind of outflow is associated to derecho types of events.

It is also likely going to be a bit more common in derecho spawned tstorm warnings to see the "hurricane force" wind verbiage.

Between the PDS and the hurricane verbiage, I would expect this to be plenty to raise awareness to the public and EMS coordinators/managers.

From a spotting perspective, I would anticipate these to be minimal.  Because of the almost certain mode of convection and its anticipated output and track, I would think that spotter activations could be very targeted and effective for a PDS STW.

;-)

Chris, The water will be 20+ above until next week unless we get more rain. Here is a website for water levels. it goes by elevation but you can see how much higher the lake currently is than its normal level.
http://www.nwk.usace.army.mil/WaterManagement/ThreeDayLakeForecast.cfm

Chris, There will probably be very few campsites and boat ramps open on truman unfortunately.

You may be ok by the 28th though Chris. Forget to put that in. This weekend would be shot though

Hey everyone!! Im back home from branson. It never rained a drop there, but they dont need it. I am still bummed that I could not trout fish cause taneycomo was so high. I have a link here to a pic I took of table rock, I have never seen it that high!!

http://i139.photobucket.com/albums/q288/bboy522000/floodtablerock.jpg

PDS severe thunderstorm watches are so rare because its not often that you get the correct conditions for extreme severe thunderstorms, but have a very low risk for tornadoes. Usually, when the conditions are that extreme, there is also a risk for tornadoes, so a PDS tornado watch is issued instead. I don't know exactly what they look for when issuing a PDS severe thunderstorm watch, but after doing a bit of research, I did find, as did Hville, that this is not something new that they just started doing.

As for sounding the sirens for a Severe T-storm, sometimes you will see in the warnings, "Activation of local warning systems recommended." That's usually for winds in excess of hurricane force. I wouldn't think that they would be sounded any other time then when the NWS recommends it.

David

Thanks for everyones response.  I'd be all right without a campsite if I could just find a place to put my boat in the water.  I can pitch a tent anywhere down there.  If anyone knows where I can put a boat in, let me know.  Thanks.

The rain chance for late Wednesday night into Thursday looks significantly better than any rain chance Thursday night. The focus seems to be shifting further south.
The only time I've heard of tornado alarms for severe thunderstorm warnings is widespread hurricane-force wind, where it poses the same amount of threat to human life as a small tornado. They didn't sound alarms on May 1, though.
I thought I read somewhere that PDS severe thunderstorm watches are associated with the threat of a derecho. If someone could confirm or debunk this information, that'd be great.

Thursday afternoon looks to be the best shot per the GFS, but modeling these little vorts in the stream is tough for the models.

More of a meso forecast, but seems plausible for Thurs afternoon.

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Look at the thunderstorms moving our way right now.  Interesting for Wednesday morning, but there just isn't much inflow or dewpoints available yet.

Gary

Gary, I can understand your thinking on the PDS on Sunday.  Though we haven't been here quite four years yet, I can't recall seeing the sky look at funky as it did around noon on Sunday.  As we left church on Sunday, I could see a cloud in my rearview mirror that actually appeared to looking like it was forming a long funnel.  Since it was in my rearview, I couldn't get a good enough look at it, but I made sure to get the family home quickly.  As soon as we got out of the car, some strong gusts came through.

Just a heads-up for everybody, but Discovery's Green Channel has a series on the rebuilding of Greensburg.

Hey gary, what do you think the chance of it raining in the morning? I have plans to go golfing and I really dont want to get rained out.

Gary, are we going to get rain tonight???  I need to pick up some things outside if it is (which I'd rather let wait til tomorrow if I can.)
Thanks

Matt P it is a very good program. It is on Sundays or Fridays at 8 I think.

A dogg, StormWyndd,
Look at the 7 day forecast http://www.nbcactionnews.com/weather/default.aspx

looks clear tomorrow

I know MG, and I've been out with the dogs and it's clear outside, I just saw the rain on the radar headed for us and wondered about it.

Did not see that...

I am glad it is somewhat calm right now.  It gives me time to research.  I have completed some intense blogs on my site [ click my name ],

The recurring pattern is amazing...and this time I did the honors of just the 500mb level analysis, instead of my usual surface trending.

Long live the LRC!

off the subject...am i the only one who is having trouble viewing the blog in firefox. i can view it fine in internet explore but in fire fox all the text is small and the background it blue. any ideas? thanks much

good luck, bell...I have no issues viewing in firefox.

bellgolf08, I use firefox all the time and never have trouble with it.  What kind of issues do you have?  Is it with the images, the pages loading, or other issues?  Check your firewall settings.

lol thanks to matt and kcwxguy i fixed i had to clear my private data whatever that is

I could have swore Gary said no rain.  Just checked the radar and it is raining in Atchison County 14 miles from me here in Jefferson County and more in Jackson County and further north and nw.  All headed se for KC.

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Gary clearly stated at 10pm that showers/t-storms were possible overnight.  Looks like most of the stuff is near or west of the state line.

Jeremy

If it rains here and Gary said it wasn't going to, he won't be the only one who spoofed it.  NWS doesn't say anything on their webpage about rain tonight either.

Gary, I don't know if you saw it, but last week there was a lot of severe weather in Worcester, MA.  I thought of your chart at the beginning of the month about the storm probabilities for cities in the month of June.  Worcester was ranked second.

It is raining here,and Gary said there was a chance of a shower on the 10pm news.By the way here means Leavenworth.

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Gary talked about the rain chance for overnight like you mentioned.  Hopefully everyone caught his forecast.

Jeremy

raining here too (139th and metcalf), had to run out to my car and close the sunroof! luckily i just had it vented and not flat out open so my car didn't get wet inside :-)

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Thanks for the report.  I'm guessing rain totals were about nothing to 0.02" in the metro.

Jeremy