NBC Action Communities

Gary:

Good Morning to you sir!! What a beautiful morning and what a fantastic day yesterday was-man o man-is there any way we can bottle some this up and unleash it say around August 10th or so?? Dew points in the upper 50's-man is that nice!! The sky yesterday reminded me of being in Canada this time of year-clear blue-it sure did not remind me of a Kansas sky in mid to late June!!!

All told, we recieved close to 2/10's of an inch last night-just enough to give the yard a little drink and to get the paper soaked as it was thrown by the down spout!!

Not much time this morning as we are just comming home for a day or two before heading back out to the cabin at Lone Star for what will be about a 3 week stay!!! That being siad, a few random musings this morning-what else is new huh?? LOL

1. The 6Z modles especially the GFS has really taken the bulk of the MCS activity to our South and West this morning. However, considering how the models have gone back and forth with the placement, I think all one can trust with them is that there will indeed be an MCS form somewhere in the plains tonight-where it forms and where it goes will be interesting to watch. I think that based on the paths of the last two the 6Z GFS may be onto something but can not be taken verbatim for sure.

2. The satelite imagery posted this morning is worth a 1000 words regarding our current weather-just amazing watching one complex diving into Oklahoma and another one already forming in the Northern Plains-makes one think they are playing asteroids!!! LOL

3. There appears on the surface charts to be a weak boundry sitting along the South Dakota/Nebraska border-not sure if this is not from the MCS currently in the Dakotas or an actuall front. Also, the models do show (at least I think they do!!!) some weak vorts at the 500, 700, and 850 levels over the next 24 hours-how will they track and what strength will they have?? Could tell laot in where the MCS tracks tonight and tomorrow. Also, we do have a southerly flow now so that 58 degree dew point will slowly rise throughout today!!!

4. Finally, part of me really wished I had time to go back and compare 500 and surface weather over the past 6 months with right now-I know it would be an amazing exercise!!! Just amazing!!! But, this is the time I spend copious amounts of time with the boys camping and fishing!!!!

What do you know-a supposed short blog has turned into War and Peace or even better Das Kapital!!!! Do I ever learn?? LOL-Have a fantastic day and as always thanks for reading!! You guys Rock!!! If I see any interesting weather while we are lake side, I will give an account!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Have a great time at the lake.  Summer is settling in, but will it dry out?  This is something we are trying to figure out at this moment.  The best chance of an MCS will be during the next 36 hours.

Gary

Gary and Jeremy, my mistake I thought Gary said no rain.  This is what happens when the tv is drowned out sometimes by emergency radios.  Anyhow, we got 0.09" in Jefferson County.  It is a great, cool, damp morning.

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I spent some time, on the 10 PM newscast last night, showing how we may have morning showers.  We did!

Gary

Looking forward to the unveiling.  Expecting big things out of the team as every other weather related thing you guys do is top notch.  A live radar feed would be a priority for me so I'm anxiously anticipating that!

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The radar should be nice since you won't have to worry about us moving the radar or a radar image being grabbed when we have the radar looping.  Should be much better.

Jeremy

Maybe someone else has already posed this problem, but why isn't anyone sounding the alarm about catastrophic flooding on the Mississippi River down stream of St. Louis?  Ok, it's obvious all those devastating floods in Iowa are moving downstream unloading into the Mississippi right now.  However, even though Iowa is drying out there is still significant rainfall in the Midwest that consequently feeds into the Mississippi.  So if the the Mississippi is already at flood stage and more water well be flowing in from the tributaries south of Iowa won't this be catastrophic?  Is New Orleans screwed, because their levies are still a joke?

Good morning!

I don't think I had any measurable rain in my rain gauge this morning, but did notice rain drops on my car when I went to leave for work! :) Probably not enough to speak of in northern Overland Park...


Just curious... Does anyone have any idea what the drive will be like from here to Omaha and back today through about midnight? A couple girlfriends and I are driving up there--in my car!--leaving early this afternoon, and I keep hearing about the threat of rain for tonight on 980 KMBZ this morning... But, I never heard Gary say what time he expected the rain to come through! I just heard "tonight"....

Anyway, thanks for the good work! Glad it's been quiet for a few days--and not too hot! Even lower 80s and high humidity are bothering this pregnant gal... ;-)

Thanks everyone on the comments on the PDS thunder....This is my  1st time blogging anywhere.

Jeremy/Gary - still waiting on the new page.  I hope it matches our expectations.  Lots of mentions for it and with the releases from other competitors, I am giddy with excitement.

With all the tools found over the internet and the level of interaction and radar, I can only imagine how this site will be.

I hope.

JoCo, I emailed some folks at the SPC on your PDS thunder question.  I will let you know what I find out.

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The new weather page will be better...if anyone has suggestions please pass them along after it debuts.

Jeremy

Gary said: "Summer is settling in, but will it dry out?"

Yes.

fairweather007-

Its funny you say the weather is bothering you, my boss is pregnant and she is always cold. When we go out to balance our ATM she still wears a sweater or jacket!!

Also I'm not a bit surprised it rained, I washed my car yesterday!

-Brian

"Maybe someone else has already posed this problem, but why isn't anyone sounding the alarm about catastrophic flooding on the Mississippi River down stream of St. Louis? "

This has been in the media.  Not as much as N of St. Louis because it hasn't been as bad S... yet.   NPR and I think 980 discussed S. of St. Louis this morning.  The folks that live there obviously are aware of what is going on.

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There has been plenty of flood coverage on WxPlus and also on NBC on the national news.  We have also been running stories on the local news.

Jeremy

I'm still wondering about that Tornado picture that keeps appearing on yahoo most popular that everyone thinks is a fake.  I did some searching and found the following youtube video from an amateur chaser in that area.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pv95O5YUYmU

After the chaser films his dog, go to about 4 mins and 13 seconds and then compare what he is looking at with the infamous picture.  Imagine at frame 4:13 if there was a big silo in front of you 200-300 ft in that open field and with trees around it.  I tend to think that this could be an alibi for the torndao/downdraft/whatever picture.  I seem to be more skeptical than most people when it comes to fake photos and like to investigate a little.  Of course, we could always send the photo to NASA or the FBI to see if the pixels have been manipulated.  But I could imagine the big silos in the picture just blocking out the obscured ground to base segment which would seem to be clear of any clouds/downdraft at the surface.  Since severe weather season has come to a close, maybe some chasers ought to drive up and chase this pictures details down.

I personally think it is a combination of RWC (really weird clouds) and the funny lighting the sky was probably throwing off, along with the dusk glow of fluorescent street and building lights captured by a really nice camera.  It is definitely surreal looking.  Does it look like a violent tornado?  To me it doesn't, just an ominous looking swirling mass of updraft downdraft whatever.  Just my opinion and I am also looking to buy some oceanfront property in North Dakota if anyone has some.

here is a link to a discussion on this picture
http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?blog=weathermatrix&pgUrl=/mtweb/content/weathermatrix/archives/2008/06/iowa_tornado_photo_or_not.asp

See that the Saturday forcast is shaping up quite well.   I'm sure that we will have ideal lane conditions for this weekends PBA Regional Tournament in Belton.

Have a great day everybody..

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Saturday looks great!

Jeremy

KCWXGUY
I too emailed SPC and did some more research. Actuallly quite a bit of information out there on PDS Thunder watches.
Just one reference-  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/#2.7

2.7 I noticed the wording "THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION" in some of your watches. What does this mean? What is the criteria for a PDS watch?
The "particularly dangerous situation" wording is used in rare situations when long-lived, strong and violent tornadoes are possible. This enhanced wording may also accompany severe thunderstorm watches for exceptionally intense and well organized convective wind storms. PDS watches are issued, when in the opinion of the forecaster, the likelihood of significant events is boosted by very volatile atmospheric conditions. Usually this decision is based on a number of atmospheric clues and parameters, so the decision to issue a PDS watch is subjective. There is no hard threshold or criteria. In high risk outlooks PDS watches are issued most often.

So it's really not a new thing, it just does not happen very often.
It's amazing how much is out there and I just searched the NOAA site.
Well better get back to work and earn a living.

Thanks JoCo.  I was lazy and didn't fully research [rare for me] before emailing.

Likely will get the same link back from them.  LOL.

This verifies what I was thinking.  I believe the PDS was justified remembering back to the analysis I did on that day.

Brian...

It's mostly the humidity that's bothering me... I'm almost 25 weeks along, so starting to get big. When we had that really humid day over Memorial Day weekend (I think it was the Sunday) it was all I could do to go from my car into the mall or grocery store. Going to the lake with my husband to fish was out completely.

And, I get the jackets thing still... in the building where I work, it's freezing so I still have my leather jacket and a blanket with me! :)

--Liberty in Overland Park

What is the ETA on this fancy new website?  I last heard Wednesday, but not seeing anything new yet.

I have a wierd question.. Is anyone else having issues keeping their swimming pools balanced? I am told that all the rain that we have been having is what is causing the issues. Anyway, just wondering.
Audra

So for this weekend, with the warmer temps, is it going to be very humid, or possibly more like yesterday and Monday?  I can't believe how beautiful it was!  I have to clean out my car to get it ready to sell and need to know if I should start very early to avoid the heat and humidity, or if I can wait a little later.

weatherfreak01 -

It is not uncommon for the chemistry to get out of whack with prolonged times of frequent rain.  Aside from keeping the chlorine balances, it goes deeper with the interaction of the metals in the water and keeping the total alk in check.

These types of times are when having a more in depth water check can be advantagous to get beyond the standard three checks in most test kits.

Keep an eye on algae growth as well.  With changing values in the water balance, there is more opportunity for growth..especially with heated pools.

JoCo - I got a reply back from the SPC regarding the PDS STW - without quoting the entire response, it largely is inline with what we have already determined...

"PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watches are typically reserved for
unfolding derechos "  I also found interesting that a PDS would never be issued for only large hail events due to the comparison to widespread damage.

-Eagerly awaiting the "new" weather website.

Audra-

Our neighborhood pool was several days late opening for the season (and thus late in beginning swim team practice) due to the pool company having problems getting it balanced.  It seems to be okay now.  (Except swim team practice is at 7am and the kiddos are FREEZING with these cooler temps!)

Am waiting with baited breath for the new weather page...Does this mean that the "Driving in Snow and Ice"  and "Staying Warm" will no longer show on the "Weather Center Tips and Hints" section? Has anybody besides me noticed that?

No comment on the current weather page.

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Scott,

Of all times, our IT guy Bill, went home sick yesterday, so I shouldn't have promoted it in the blog.  It is ready to go, but we must wait.

Gary

Hey Guys, I'm ready for another MCS, not a PDS, as it has been several days since I've heard thunder, as for your new accomplishment, I have no expectations for it. It will be great no matter what because it's your creation. have a wonderful day

Jonathan

What will it be like traveling to to the shore in the middle of lake erie in ohio, Cedar Point. I'd be leaving Monday. Thanks, Juba!

G-Man: You know I've been a longtime believer in the LRC but...

48 days ago (May 1) we had our first severe weather outbreak of the season. Low pressure aloft in a SW flow along with a surface dryline created a significant severe weather outbreak that evening and the morning on May 2 with the bow echo and accompanying tornadoes in Gladstone. Where is this feature in today's forecast? I do not see it, even in the seven day. Has the 2007-08 pattern completely broken down?

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In a word, "yes".  The pattern has broken down, but it isn't gone.  We are moving into summer, and the LRC has its least impact on our weather during the summer.  The heights rise, and our weather pattern will be more dependent on where the upper highs (anticyclones) set up.  The weather pattern, I believe, is continuing, but everything keeps weakening into July and August to the point of the impact being very small. 

It is still there, however, and there are parts of the pattern that should bring fronts down here. 

Gary

I thought I saw the IT scapegoat running around taking a beating for the webpage not being up, LOL.

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But, it's true.  So, let's give him another couple of days. Sorry.

Gary

Gary, do you have any information  about the "moon illusion"that is supposed to occur this evening there's supposed to be a full moon tonight and it's supposed to occur bigger to us tonight they had an article on yahoo.

Baahh...  It has not broken down.  Semantics perhaps.

It is still there, and still visible.  What has broken down is the relationship to our sensible pattern.

As the jet retreats, heights increase, and convection is rampid, it is very difficult to tie surface effects to the upper level pattern in this area.

In looking broadly, and over weeks at a time, the pattern is still quite evident...but becoming less meaningful for this area.

I would expect more late July to see it begin to "fall apart" into August.  This last year, we saw traces of last years pattern into early Sept. as the new pattern was forming in August.

Of course, this is all speculation since according to Gary, the new pattern doesn't start until October or so and can't be really seen until sometime in Winter.

Baahh!

So..to the May 1st question - I will offer my thoughts even though the question was directed to Gary.  

May 1st as indicated had a SW flow rounding the western trough.  Should one be inclined to look ahead 54 days from May 1st ish, one would find June 24th.

Looking at the models, nothing close for June 24th.  But - note the ULL near the Pac NW.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_150l.gif

Note the strength of the ULL at 546mb.  Very strong for summertime.

Watch the ULL from that point.  Watch this trough begin to form southward.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_192l.gif

Ok...so, then lets move ahead to a few days later...it begins to move eastward.

Notice the SW flow.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_264l.gif

I believe this to be the same part of the pattern.  Is it exactly 50 days?  Nope.  Is it exactly 54 days?  Nope.

Is it a similar transition from a NW flow to a SW flow that has been repeating since last August?

Yup.

By clicking my name I put similar but more depth in my blog about this.

I guess I could have left well enough alone and just gone with "In a word, "yes".  The pattern has broken down, but it isn't gone."

LOL....

Gary - Let Bill the IT guy know we are thinking of him.  Hope he gets better soon.  Heaven forbide the site go down when he were sick...

;-)
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Scott,

The problem is in the launch. 

Anyway, I didn't say the pattern had broken down.  There is no doubt about it, but the weaker versions are here.  But, great points above.

Gary

As far as the photo of the tornado/downdraft I can say that photo is not fake. The errie lighting is due to a 1/30 sec exposure and a flash. The massive size and milky smooth appearance is deceptive. If you take a long exposure of a meandering brook the water will not be clear but milky because of motion. Now imagine clouds and debris moving at 100 mph+ just look at the stationary items in the picture compared to items like the stop sign and american flag.    

Thanks all for answering my question about the stupid pool and all this rain. I figured out that part of my problem was old sand in the filter. Today the pool has been clear all day, wahoo! The temps were so nice here in Lee's Summit, we even went swimming today. With all the cooler than normal days that we have been having, I was beginning to wonder if the pool would ever heat up! Let's hear it for warmer days that heat up 33,000 gallons of water!!
Audra