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Recieved .17 here at 130th and State Avenue in KCK with the last bath of storms earlier this evening. Looks like the new stuff is doing a good job, and I agree Gary, it  looks like it could arrive around 11:30 in my area. Hopefully this one holds together this time.

Bryan

it will hit us................I hope

It looks like it will hold together.  
What are scud clouds?

Hmmm... My guess is that KC will get rain from the system but the real heavy stuff migrates more westward as it pushes south we here in St. Joe my get clipped with the heavy stuff but I'd say there is a decent shot of it staying west of us.

You were so "on" about the cooler wetter "summer".  Its been perfect so far.  
The clouds this afternoon were so fun to watch.  Strange combos of clouds - I saw some low hangers as well.

I will take the safe bet and always side with the expert -- Lezak says it will hit us -- so....so do I!

"So, what do you think?  Who thinks it will fall apart before getting here?  And, who thinks it will hit us?"  Gary

Got me.  That's why I tune into your blog and watch you on tv.  I dig the KSHB team, but I'm not qualified to guess.   If you had to put a gun to my head, I'd say it might rain or might not.

Didn't get much here in SoKC.  Wouldn't mind an inch or so tonight since the long range forecast is sort of hot and dry.  I haven't had to water the garden or flower beds since early May (I think, it has been a long time).  Summer is upon us.

I was just on UM weather radar.  A few popup cells slightly north of downtown appear to be forming and then disapating within a 1/2 hour timespan.  Is this an indication of things to come with the bigger line up north?

Hope we get some, my rain barrels need refilling.

About 10 minutes ago this thing looked like it was going to start to bow out but then it just went back to being not-so-impressive. I think our environment is stable and lacks the wind to support a bow eho, but still this is going to produce some gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain.

Gary,
In the last update you said it something would come in around 4am, is 11 the new ETA?

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11 PM is the new 4 AM.

Gary

Here in McLouth, I have know idea what happened earlier, thought we would have a pretty good storm..... the wind blew and maybe .15 of rain...... no this next line is solid and you should see the clouds - HUGE cumulonimbus cloud with lightening and well formed.  I give this a 90% chance of hitting here.   If not 100%.  I have been watching this for some time now.  This could be a nice soaker.  It does seem to fall apart and reorganize everytime this spring to the east and south.... I don't see that happening this time.  I do think it will hold together for KC too.  If you get a chance view the sky to the Northwest, VERY cool!  

I'm no expert (I stayed at a Days Inn.  Company was too cheap for the Holiday Inn), but what was heading to us going  SE has suddenly turned dead south.  Looks like a nice bow will hit Lawrence/Topeka.  Check in tomorrow when I get to stay at a Motel 6.  Perhaps it will build east, but it looks like it is intensifying to our west going South.  

@StormWyndd -- Stop filling those rain barrels...we got to many skeeters already.  ;)  Though I do love the rain...reminds me of my years in Alaska.

I got some very cool sunset pics tonight.

Based on the fact that most of the development of the first MCS was east and west of KC Metro, I would assume, based on historical viewpoints, that the secondary storms/MCS or Fronts that come in with precip tend to move on the areas that did not pull the moisture out of the atmosphere.

I will then predict a pretty good line event right through the metro late tonight pulling the existing moisture out of the air over KC.  A good .5 ot 1.0 event with lightning.  A great "grass and plant" event!

I think it'll split and go around us.

Ross, lol lol... no skeeters in my barrels, I have dunks in 'em.  Been to Alaska too, years ago, the skeeters up there horrible!

I vote for black lightning and silent thunder so Smokey, our dog, doesn't wake us up in the middle of the night!

Can someone please tell me what a scud cloud is????!!!

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Scud is a low cloud under a strong thunderstorm that is not attached to the parent cloud.

Gary

what a difference an hour makes in weather! ;) Looks like those thunderstorms are having a really hard time making it here in the KC area with the same amount of strength. I still think we will see some light to moderate rain here in KC, but no more then maybe .10

Bryan

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Bryan,

They are falling apart as I am finishing the 10 PM newscast.  I just want my lawn watered.

Gary

Well looking at the radar at 9:00 and seeing the cluster of storms to the north....they are just getting us here in St. Joseph, MO.  I think these storms will continue to track south through the over night hours.  However,I think they will be there before 4 AM.

Just my thoughts!

Brian in Rainy St. Joseph, MO  10:32 PM

It is POURING down rain, currently in St. Joe! It is really coming down!!!!!

10:39 PM

Brian in SOGGY St. Joseph

I just wish the live stream was working tonight.  Can't get it to work.  

Broken

Thank you Gary.  Usually someone answers me quick.  It was just driving me cuz I had no idea what it was lol

I think the MCS will grow a bit in coverage as it approaches KC, and drop 0.55" at KCI added to the current total. It will then become a mature MCS as it pushes south of KC. I am just guessing all of this, but I think it is going to slow down a bit, and cause some minor flooding problems south of I-70.

Also after it pushes through KC, a line of thunderstorms will intensify at the leading edge with 65 mph winds. Just a guess =]

Alex

i'm a little late in the game but they are dying quick. Gary while you were on ESP live I saw the lightning strikes just dying LIVE. we'll have a moderate rain shower maybe a few rumbles and that's it.

BTW,

1 inch of rain here in Marceline today =]

Alex

Alex those are some intense voices in your head buddy=P

They are dying a quick death.  Nuttin.  Or at least, nuttin much.  Enjoy.  I'm heading to bed.

At least we didnt get a complete wash out like we did last time here in Marceline. I think it was last Sunday, but 2.6 inches of rain was too much, and it like flooded the garden.

The 1 inch we got today was perfect. It didnt make the garden too wet, and I didnt have a river going through the middle of my backyard. If we could get 1 inch every 3 or 4 days or so, that would be great.

Alex

Do I see the splitting?

At least the worst of it.

gary ive always heard this phrase so many times in the past ,its taking the togonoxie split. could you spread some light on this thanks

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That is a myth.  Makes for a good conversation piece though.

Jeremy

Just an update. I was at the Kansas City All-Star football game at Blue Valley Northwest. We got some moderate rain and a little lightning. After the storm came through, it partially cleared, but there was a lot of lightning to the south and southeast. Now I'm back at my house and there's intermittent lightning to the north. Radar shows showers with a possible thunderstorm heading in our general direction, but they are rapidly weakening. Unsure about overnight thunderstorm chances, but I'm going to bed. I'm exhausted.

JimE in Smithton MO, we had 3.25 inches. Hard and fast, some of the worst flooding I've seen here to happen so fast.

The Tonganoxie Split was coined by an old weatherman named Dan Henry. He's still around doing occasional commercials.

1.75 in st jo. good dog walking weather

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Thanks for the report.  A huge difference between your total and the automated station.

Jeremy