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exactly 1/2 inch of rain in the last 24 hours in Liberty.  Have a nice day.

*****************

Thanks for the report!  One of the higher totals in the metro.

Jeremy

Praying for lots of 90+ degree days in July.....I guess hoping for 100 degree days is out of the question.  I miss the summers in Kansas of my youth...sunshiny, hot days at the pool.  The sunrises the past few days have been beautiful, pink sky on the horizon always makes my morning walks more enjoyable.  Now if we could just do something about the swamp land developing here in Paola.....
Have a great day everyone, enjoy the sun!

*******************

Last summer was pretty hot.  Not sure if we hit 90 yet this month...we'll make a run at it though.

Jeremy

1.2 inches of rain from two rounds of storms yesterday afternoon and last night just south of St. Joseph.  It's nice to keep getting rain so I don't have to water.  Everything is so green up here!  A total reversal from last summer's dry weater.

Gardner had a whopping 1/10 of an inch. There was actualy more condensation in the gage then actual rain.

*******************

Thanks...I'll add it to our total.

Jeremy

I have to say that I wish it would go all summer and not hit 90. I am loving this weather with the perfect temperatures. Everyone keeps calling 75 "cool". I tend to think of 45-50 as cool temperatures. 75 is nice and warm and with the lower humidity it is absolutely wonderful. I grew up in Denver and no humidity there, and I still havent gotten used to Kansas humidity after being here for 6 years. Luckily I will be moving back to Denver in one month so Gary and Team, if you could keep these "cooler" temperatures around for one month that would be fantastic. I will definitely miss having you guys to watch everyday but usually there is far less severe weather to worry about in colorado, since I tend not to consider blizzards severe weather, I consider that party time. Especially since it causes far less damage than the severe weather we get around here. I will still lurk around the blog once I am out there and post every once in a while but will probably rarely have matching weather. Maybe I will get on and brag a bit when it is hot and humid here and perfect weather in denver.

Once again, Thank you KSHB weather team for providing me with 6 years of amazing weather coverage!

3/10" of rain at Brighten and Vivion in the Northland.

So for today is there a chance of storms this afternoon or did the chance disappear?

****************

Very slight chance at the moment. 

Jeremy

Thanks Jeremy! Have a great weekend!

Lack of surface convergence of any kind yesterday kinda told the story of the metro.  Not a suprise most of the area kinda got missed.

As far as not hitting 90 yet, that is crazy...but..oddly, still above normal on temps.  

People would think with the above average rainfall...[about half an inch or so], that the temps would be lower.  Yes and no.  High temps have been about average but a hair low on some peaks, but with the cloud cover - low temps have not been as low as they could be with this pattern

Jeremy - 90 will be hit at KMCI or Downtown by the end of June - no doubt.  Once we get out of the NW flow, these moderate temps will evaporate.

Should begin transitioning out within the next week.

Largely - due to the insulation of the lower atmosphere with the high RH values/cloud cover.  Also, has anyone noticed that we seem to be in a bit of a location in the last week where the surface winds seem to have tapered off?

******************

If you look at the entire metro area most areas are well over 1.00" surplus this month.  JC Executive airport is closing in on 8" this month.  So the wet forecast is right on the money.  The temps will probably be about average.  The next 5 days look at or below average for temps...that should bring us back to even.  We'll have to see how the final week plays out.

Jeremy

0.24 in North Grain Valley

Here is the NW flow breaking down early next week.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_108.shtml

Next weekend we should be in the 90s.

Here is that silly western trough transitioning in with a ? 540 mb? Aleutian ULL.  

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_174l.gif

4th of July forecast is looking pretty good...

Jeremy - yes, I know what you are saying..

I will not bite though.  Picking points in your DMA [which is quite large geographically] for forecast validation is cherry picking.

I suppose you all were using St. Joe for the snow forecasts, right?

Weatherate uses KMCI to validate your forecasts.  You tout your accuracy based on Weatherate analysis.  Either throw out Weatherate or concede to KMCI.

Can't have it both ways.

***********************

I'm not trying to have it both ways but am showing the entire viewing area.  If there was 3.50" of rain in the entire viewing area this month there would be no flood stories on the news.  That isn't the case.  KCI has been wetter than average this month, but many locations are in the 5-8" rainfall range across the metro.  Make sure to bring this point up to Gary too.

Jeremy

Well NOAA has come out with there prediction for below average temps in July for the KC Metro and areas to the NE.  Also, above average rainfall for areas along the MS river.  Does this fall in line with what you think will happen based on the LRC?

http://www.agweb.com/get_article.aspx?pageid=143796

******************

Gary mentioned a wetter than average Spring and Summer a long time ago.  So far the wetter than average prediction has held true.  We'll have to see how summer plays out.

Jeremy

I think that the SS (Siraluce Split) was quite evident yesterday, but this time encompassing the entire KC metro area.  This wider SS corridor seems to happen quite a bit in northwest flows as I keep refining my namesake theory.

By the way, 0.05" at KCK N18th and State area.. all in the evening with just a trace from the dissipating storm that came across around midnight, again missing the metro area.

Fascinating to see SS continue in such persistent fashion!

Lenexa had .03" inches of rain yesterday. That's what, 5 rain drops? =)

We don't have a rain gauge but it poured in Kingsville and we got quite a bit - enough to leave muddy puddles in the yard for the dogs to play in!  :(

Nastyweather,

I think your reading those maps incorrectly.  Noaa is calling for an "enhanced" probability of below normal temperatures and wetter weather.  Doesn't mean its going to be cool and wet, just means its a little more favorable this july.

*********************

Good call...also forecasts are just that until the weather happens and can be verified.

Jeremy

Before reading the blog this morning, I was going to address the lack of rainfall at KCI compared to almost the entire viewing area. It is totally unexplainable how and why KCI keeps getting the short end of all the rainfall events we've had since spring began...one would think at somepoint they would get a deluge but so far that hasn't happened. It is concerning that the official rainfall for the entire area is based only on KCI. At least if downtown KC was used, since it is basically in the middle of the KC metro, that would represent a more realistic total. If anyone outside of our area see's the KCI is still under 4 inches for the month...they will have no idea how wet it really has been around here. It just doesn't seem right, accurate or fair but I guess we don't make those decisions.

Jeff

********************

Jeff,

KCI is still above average for the month, even though it is quite a bit lower than surrounding areas.  Things normally even out.  This past winter KCI had more snow than southern areas not too far away, while the previous winter it was the other way around.

If KCI ends up with below average rain this month it may be a little misleading if looked at years down the road without other cities being considered. 

Jeremy


 

Jeff  

siraluce - you continue to explain this theory and provide "evidence".  Have you vetted this with peers and can you provide more detail to your theory?

Can you find an intern to do some research on this?  Perhaps we need a SS t-shirt to get the word out!

Everytime I ask for more information -  it seems "you are too busy" or "discussion for another time"

I need a map.  

LMAO.

Jeremy - just a bit further thinking.  Picking JOCO Exec as your point of reference in your response above made me think...

JOCO Exec is 42 miles away from KMCI.  42 miles.

For similar mileage - which if deemed acceptable, we should also be aboe to use Lawrence [similar distance] or St. Joe, other locations in a 50 miles swing.

If in this case 50 miles is the radius that is accepted, then the total area that could be used to verify the forecast is  - well...I will let you do the math - quite a large area to choose from.

nastyweather - the NOAA graphic seems to me..opinion only, to persist the Great Lakes troughing that we have seen with the NW flow.  The LRC would indicate this would break down into more western troughing.

The GFS also shows this right now.  This would indicate warmer temps and a SW flow of air, not the cooler NW flow.  

Not sure I can really form an opinion of that graphic as it is so broadly brushed.  I don't think it will be cooler here in July.  Why would it?  

June is above normal in temps so far per KMCI...and this is with the cooler part of the pattern per the LRC.  We won't see it again this year in this pattern unless you think it will be back in August.

Not sure at all it will be cooler this summer.

Siraluce,

Your SS theory intrigues me.  What about a couple of weeks ago when much of the metro got hammered by heavy rain though?  Did that anomaly occur due to a weaker jet or something?

What does the SS say for the summer forecast?  I suppose, if memory serves me correct, it would call for some hot days but some cooler ones mixed in on occasion with some thunderstorms...some perhaps severe, but lots of big events missing the Siraluce locale?  I suppose there might be a day or two topping 100 degrees, probably in August?  Would that summary of this upcoming summer fit your theory?!?  I'm eager to see if it verifies!

Has anyone made an SS shirt yet?

HummerSeeker, what part of Kingsville do you live in? I don't have more than a trace of rain in my rain gauge, and everything is really dried out. We had light showers last night and thats about it. It didn't "pour" at my house, but I am so glad it didn't! I live just southwest of Kingsville.

Scott -

I know you have written more about it previously, but without getting into long, drawn out detail, can you indicate timeframes for me as to when the western trough should return, per your and Gary's theory?  What timeframe in July and what about August and even September?

Scott - Looks like you and I were both commenting on Siraluce's theory at the same time...and we both have some of the same questions.  

I hope Siraluce can find the time to respond in some detail sometime soon...

Oh, and what is the verification point for the SS?

Jeremy - "If there was 3.50" of rain in the entire viewing area this month there would be no flood stories on the news."

Um...the dominant area and reason for the flooding has been much north of us.  

Iowa-NE Missouri.  Sure other areas have been over flood stage, but the national news is focused on the above.  I assume this is what you mean by "in the news"

I am unclear how precip differences between KMCI and JOCO Exec would have any impact to river flooding in Iowa and northward.

I do agree.  KMCI is over average for rainfall.  A bit over half an inch in fact.

Frigate - downtown was used for a long time.  However, it too has its biases.  Due to heat island impacts, downtown temps are often 2-5 degrees above the rest of the area.

You thoughts are very true, but also support a general premise.  

No point will be perfect.  

No point will be truly representative of the 50 miles around it that is generally considered in this viewing area.

However, for the sake of record keeping, one must keep the total time period in mind.  Not just one month or season, but the many years that it has been recorded.

Overtime, it all evens out.  That said, for that to work..there must generally be one point of record keeping.  To date, that has always been KMCI.

Yes, I am not saying that points south have not had more rain, this is true...but this winter, points north had more snowfall...

So, in the end, doesn't it all kinda even out?  Yes - but certainly becomes topical when shorter range forecasts are up for grabs to be validated.

LOL.

Notes - I have gone into pretty deep detail I think in my blog and in yours regarding your question.

If folks want to know more, then they can check it out on our sites.  The chart, the analysis and the models to "suggest"/"support" this claim have all been included.

Forgive me as I am being lazy to have to put it all out here again.  I am satisfied with what I have done in the other locations and will let that ride.

To touch on your last thought - I expect little impacts to this area with the pattern in August or even the reminants in September.

In fact, I will be more focused on the initiation/evolution of the new pattern in that timeframe.

Gary has a different take - have him answer for his thoughts.

Braysmama - we're just off of W on 450 - in county limits

.1 of rain in merriam yesterday. enough not to mow the yard!

We live out in Buckner and are building a new home just NE of town.  We had a large amount of hail and 4.2 inches of rain.  It absolutely poured yesterday evening.  The winds were straight line winds of probably 70-80 mph.  The hail just totally destroyed the corn in the fields out there.  The wind blew the rain between the foundation and the walls of the new home.  It was pretty scary to say the least.

Know I'll get clunked for this but these severe watches seem to me to need to be elsewhere than where they are sometimes. I didn't see anything severe about yesterday's rain storms on the Kansas  metro side. Maybe Topeka needed something but KCK, Johnson County, seemed to me to not need a watch at all.

********************

Somtimes it seems like that, but not everytime there is a watch will there be severe weather.  Generally severe weather is pretty isolated and and affects small areas despite a large area being in a watch.  That is why a watch just gives people a heads up that something may develop, while a warning means it is happening or radar indicated and could happen at any moment.  Yesterday was a case where the metro saw no severe weather and really not much rain.

Jeremy

Jeremy, has there ever been a summer on record where it didn't get to 90 degrees or higher all summer? Excluding "The Year Without a Summer".

I see the SPC now has us in a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow......what are the odds of this actually happening especially toward evening/night?

*****************

I think our best chance of storms is Saturday Night into Sunday morning.  Right now about 40%.  Severe weather threat would be hail/strong winds if it pans out.

Jeremy

whirlygirl - I will not "clunk" you.  But want to show some things...

First, understand watches are issued for LARGE areas.  LARGE areas were conditions are right or are expected to be right for severe potential.

Let's talk about yesterday's event.  Here is the watch graphs, initial radar, meso discussion along with other features.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0577.html

Here is a couple things to think about that was published at the time of the watch.

First, notice the area targeted in the discussion...

         MUCH OF WESTERN IOWA
         NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
         PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI
         MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA

This watch was more targeted for Iowa and Nebraska, with our area as part of the downstream propagation due to the atmospheric potential of sustaining the convection.

Second, notice the convection that is already in place and had initiated.  Rougly 10 cells in the watch area already in place.

Third, the discussion was rather tame.  

"   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY IN NUMBER AND
  INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS BECOMING UNCAPPED. WITH 30-40KT OF NWLY SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
  HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL INCREASE AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINE
  SEGMENTS AND BOWS."

The meso discussion was even weaker...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1483.html

All said, this was not going to be a big event, but worthy of the watch.  Here is why...

If you look at the probability tab, there was an 80% feeling that the following would occur in the STW area...

"Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events"

Here are the storm reports for yesterday.  Count the events in the warned area...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html

The SPC hit it right.  Dead on.  So perhaps your thoughts are on how the local NWS or media conveys the local area as it relates to the watch.

Looking through the NWS Area discussions yesterday, the closest mention to severe weather in this CWA was a use of "marginal"

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=5&glossary=1

So..I think the NWS was right on that one as well.  That leaves the media perhaps.

Looking in the blog entries yesterday, most of what Gary/team put out there was rather tame as well.  I cannot comment on the newscasts, as I missed them.

All said, the potential was there in a broad area for severe weather.  Per the storm reports, it verified in the area warned.

It did not greatly affect the metro - thank goodness - but doesn't mean the watch was a bust.

BellyUpRacin likely would think the watch to be warranted.  LOL

;-)

I think I hope it stays in the 80s the rest of the summer and that just one time I'll get hit with an MCS. although i worry about that Omega Block feature coming back sometime in the next few weeks. we'd surely hit or surpass 90 if that were to happen.

*******************

We'll hit 90 this summer...there's really no doubt in my mind.  Keep in mind our average high is 85...so just a little above average and we hit 90.  100 may be a struggle this summer though.

Jeremy

i'm glad to hear that 100 will be hard to come by.

Kcwxguy and Notesinthemargin:

Thank you for your excellent questions regarding the SS.  

It is estute observers and and logically minded persons such as yourselves that assist in the development of meteorological understanding, new forecasting techniques and explanations for objectively observed events and apparent anomalies.  I would like to offer a big KUDOS to you both for these perceptive inquiries which only add credibility and understanding to the ongoing perplexing local meteorological conundrums.

Feel free to inquire more in depth if you would like me to elaborate further.

As for a possible T-shirt, you have inspired me to design one for distribution among members of this blog.  This will also assist in spreading the word on the SS!

siraluce -

While I appreciate the kind words, my hope and expectation is that you will continue to promote the SS wildly and ensure that once events happen, that is clearly communicated to the masses only when the SS is visible.

For times where it is not overly apparent, I would hold you to the highest standard of being forthright in the fact you do not have time to go into depth out of respect of your other duties.  Regardless, clear and open promotion will certainly make this theory come to fruition.

Lets remember, saying something three times makes it so in the minds of many.

Long live the SS!  Kindly send a picture of yourself so that we may begin the SS marketing campaign.

lol

----------------

Scott,

When verifying our forecast, ultimately we will use KCI. But, to me it has always been perception.  What was the spring like, perceptively.  It was wet and cool!  And, June was wet as well.  Even if KCI ends up below average, which I doubt they will.

Gary

I for one am relieved to hear 100 degrees will be a struggle this summer... My flowers might look good without much work (good thing, since it's getting more difficult for me to bend down and garden with my pregnant belly!) And, if it's not *too* hot and humid, my dog and I can get out and walk more--good for both of us!

What a glorious day! I hope to get out and enjoy soon afterwork. La cygne only got 2/10 of inch last night. Perfect amount. Fields are drying up nicely and maybe we can bale hay next week.

I am almost certain that the SS would dematerialize promptly after I washed my car.  Maybe it has something to do with global warming.

Would the SS shirt be for weather ***? You might want to be careful wearing a shirt with an SS on it but hey, I will make one.

Yesterday I got 0.19" here in central Jefferson County KS.  It took 2 rain events to get that little amount.  We didn't need the rain.  As bad as that is, I hope the day doesn't come this summer when we are begging for rain either.  Now some other news I wish o pass on;


Lightning Safety Awareness Week
June 22-28, 2008

Join NOAA all week long as they examine the following topics:

   * Monday: Lightning Overview
   * Tuesday: The Science of Lightning
   * Wednesday: Lightning Safety Outdoors
   * Thursday: Lightning Safety Indoors
   * Friday: The Medical Aspects of Lightning

To find out more visit: http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/week.htm

I am so happy that it will be a struggle to reach 100 this Summer. Back home in S. California the forcast high today is 110 degrees. I don't care if it is a "dry" heat, it is still dang hot! I don't miss the Summers there!! I totally prefer the tstorms, lightning bugs, and warm "soft" Summer evenings here in Missouri!
Audra

Like the new look on ESP:LIVE weather team!

correction
it was
.01 in merriam
sorry

Gary - will the new page have viewer totals on a Google overlay?

----------------

No.

Gary

"JOCO Exec is 42 miles away from KMCI.  42 miles."

Which is why KMCI is such a terrible location to be the official weather recording station for Kansas City. KCI is closer to St Joseph than it is to many of the densely populated parts of the Kansas City metro area. Only about 100,000 people out of 2 million total metro live in Platte County, and most of them live south of KCI.

Cool to read on a slow day..don't forget some of the others at the bottom...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/coolimg/

Ok, Rdub...lets look at it another way.

JOCO Exec is 26 miles away from the downtown airport.  KMCI is 18 miles from downtown.

It could be argued that most of the people in the metro live north of 151st street too.

So, that leaves - well downtown, which cannot give you a fair capture of temp without the heat bias.

So, what do you do?  Pick a spot nearby and go with it.  Its not like the metro has a microclimate that severely skews any readings.

---------------------

Scott,

Picking KCI airport is just as good as picking Johnson County Executive.  Just pick one and move on.

Gary

Scott, here's the thing: it's disingenous and unscientific to pretend that the 7"+ of rain in most of the metro just didn't happen. I understand your concerns about cherry picking, and consistency, but you can't just ignore a weather event that was significant and affected a large number of people.

You are basically clinging to a technicality here. It is absurd to say that the rainfall total at KCI this month is representative of what happened within the KC metro area. So it is perfectly legitimate for Gary and Jeremy to say that their forecast of a wet June was accurate. The fact that the driest point in the entire metro was still above average only proves that the forecast was good.

For environmental data to be considered good quality data, it has to be representative (in addition to being accurate, precise, and comparable to other data). The KCI rainfall data for this month clearly fail in this respect, and are thus not good quality data. Sure, KCI is the "official" location, and sure it is the location selected by Weatherrate and others, but for this month at least it should be considered a poor quality data set for application to the KC metro area as a whole.

"Lets remember, saying something three times makes it so in the minds of many. "

I am svelte and rich and it will always be 80 degrees
I am svelte and rich and it will always be 80 degrees
I am svelte and rich and it will always be 80 degrees

What are the chances of those Nebraska cells forming a meso system tonight and holding together all the way to KC?
Only a 1/10  inch rain in Pleasant Hill yesterday--aaargh!

Stormdog here - only .08" -wonder if the boring summer wx will take over, or whether, as in 1993, something unusual/interesting might happen - NW flow over the foreseeable future means no day/night the next 7 days is without tstm risk - no one can really forecast these MCSs, not in my days of 1970s, nor in the 2000s.  Nice to see nature can still screw up the computer models and, forgive me, the meteorologists.  Man should never assume he has overcom nature - ain't gonna happen.

Cheers,
Stormdog

Rdub, while I disagree..I won't belabor the point.  Take it up with the NWS in having the reading moved.

I won't touch this tonight...I wont touch this tonight...I will keep repeating this...

"When verifying our forecast, ultimately we will use KCI. But, to me it has always been perception..."

---------------

Scott,

But it is!  Oh, it is very important for me to come within three degrees at KCI.  In our local climate, KCI is a good representation on most days.  Today, here are the highs:

• KCI:  83
• Downtown airport:  83
• Johnson county executive: 83
• New Century:  83
• Lee's Summit:  82

Now, I know it is just one day, but our climate, on most days has most locations within a degree or two of each other.

Gary

Tomorrow afternoon we are meeting my mom, brother and family for a fun day in Mound City, Missouri.  Anyone have any idea what the forecast holds for that area and St. Joe?

Is it me or is kcwxguy beating a dead horse?  Geez man, you've been on here for much of your Saturday trying to debate the topic to a bloody pulp and almost offensive in regards to how you come across towards Jeremy.  I'm sure you have a great passion for weather, but your debate seems pretty ridiculous.  You can not deny that it has been a much wetter season for the ENTIRE viewing area as a whole.  Gary and team predicted this and so far have been right on.  Who the heck cares that the "official" totals come from KCI?  Does that mean you expect Gary and team to just forecast what is going to happen at KCI on a daily basis and just skip everyone else?  Get over yourself, because it is apparent that you are a little too confident for your own good in regards to your opinions.  

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