Good Sunday morning bloggers,
We have had a few high based thunderstorms around this morning. The clouds are just beautiful. There is a weak cold front approaching and it will be near by this afternoon. It may be strong enough to produce a few thunderstorms later on, but the chance is slim. Look below at the forecast surface map from the RUC model, valid at 3 PM today:
The summer version of the LRC is continuing to settle in. We have been able to forecast the weather long range, by using my theory the past few years, with amazing accuracy. It becomes more difficult during the summer to do this as the jet stream continues to lift north. I believe the weather pattern is still cycling, but the main flow is shifting into Canada and the northern United States. Underneath the main flow you can see the anticyclone. This is an upper high that can dominate a summer pattern. The most favored position for this upper high is over the hot inland areas of the desert southwest. You can see this below on the forecast map for next weekend:
This forecast map, above, is the 500 mb forecast for next Saturday night. The main jetstream is forecast to be across southern Canada, dipping down into the Great Lakes states. If you analyze the pattern carefully, it can be shown that this is still the same pattern that set up last October into early November, but it is retreating, and weakening. July and August have potential to be quite wet in our part of the nation, if we can keep getting these cold fronts down here. I believe they will continue to make it down here, but there is a battle going on as the anticyclone tries to take over and dominate the weather pattern. As long as it doesn't park itself over the middle of the nation, we will continue to avoid any heatwaves. It is something we will monitor closely as we go through the next few weeks. The least likely spot for the upper high to set up, this summer, is where I believe the "long term" longwave trough is located, near the Mississippi River valley extending north through the western Great Lakes. This is the reason I made the forecast for a cooler than average summer with above average rainfall. Let's see how it all plays out in the coming weeks.
In the mean time, there are a couple of cold fronts, weak, that will try to get to our local area this week. There will likely be some more MCS activity around the plains, and we should get hit by one or two of them providing a nice drink to our lawns soon. As I am writing this, someone is getting a very heavy downpour as I can see it just north of me right before 8 AM.
Jeremy Goodwin is filling in today, on NBC Action News. I will try to answer your questions today, and we will all be watching for any new development of thunderstorms. Have a fantastic day.
Gary