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Thunderstorms & our new weather page is up

Good morning bloggers,

Our new weather page is up.  We will be adding other features soon.  Let us know what you think.  We love the functionality of it as you can pan across the small maps as they appear below in the big screen.  ESP and our skyviews are timelapses.  And, we have new landsat mapping to have higher resolution on ESP and our graphics for our weathercasts. 

Last night was an electrively active one just south and southwest of Kansas City.  There is a weak front stalled southwest of us this morning and it will drift our way tonight. And, an upper level storm is developing/approaching from the Rockies.  This will help create a new area of thunderstorms tonight that should drift over the local region.  But, some areas will get missed again on Tuesday.  Look below at the upper level forecast for noon Tuesday:

These maps are of the 500 mb level.  This level is 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere, or around half way through the atmosphere in weight.  It is my favorite level of the atmosphere to follow and track the weather pattern.  I drew in a dotted line through western Kansas. This is valid at 1 PM Tuesday.  There is a weak upper level storm moving our way, and combined with a weak front slowly drifting northeast, some heavy thunderstorms will likely form tonight, but this time a bit closer to Kansas City.

After this disturbance moves by, we will likely see our first 90 degree day on Wednesday or, more likely, Thursday.  Then, after this one little warm-up, another cold front should move through by Friday.  Look below at the forecast 500 mb flow for this Saturday:

By Saturday, the anticyclone (opposite of a cyclone) may have formed at 500 mb over the 4 corners.  At the same time a strong summer storm is moving across the northern Great Lakes and southern Canada.  This will drag a cold front through us, and bring with it our next chance of thunderstorms.

Stormy is on NBC Action News every Friday at 5 PM for a brief appearance during the end of our newscast each week. I rarely talk about Breezy. She is two years old and doing well.  She has been in training for the past few months.  Her behavior has improved dramatically with people, but she still has a few aggressive behaviors, especially with certain other dogs.  I love her so much, and I am impressed with her improvements and maturity.  But, we still have to watch her carefully.  This picture was taken over the weekend.  She likes to give hugs.

Stormy, Breezy and I will be on our way to Colorado Tuesday.  I am going to the Broadcast conference for the AMS (American Meteorological Society).  Wednesday is an all day session on dual polarization radar.  Broadcast meteorologists from around the nation will be meeting in Denver and Boulder this week.   I am working tonight, and then Jeremy Nelson will be filling in for me beginning tomorrow.

Have a great day!  Be sure to watch NBC Action News at 11 AM, 5, 6, and 10 PM tonight as we analyze this developing weather situation.

Gary

Published Monday, June 23, 2008 6:56 AM by glezak

Comments

 

sertorius said:

Gary:

Well, I did it aagin!! I got Get Smarted!!! I guess that is fitting since the movie is now playing LOL!!!

Oh well, I'll just leave it in the previous Blog. One thing I am kind of interested in this morning is how long will the cloud cover hang on here in Lawrence. Not much to amuse me!!! LOL

Have a great day and as always, thanks for all the great information on the Blog entries-I always learn so much!!

I will repeat one thing from my early morning entry: sad day today with the passing of George Carlin-man he was just amazing!!!!

Again, have a fantastic day!!

---------------

Yes, Bill, George Carlin was one of my favorites!  He will be missed. 

I saw that someone had just left a comment, and I wondered, "no it's not Bill", but it was.  I will go back and read your thoughts.

Today's clouds are ridiculous.  I would say when we have altocumulus and stratocumulus clouds, that are thick and ripply, at this time of the year would almost always mean thunderstorms.  But, nothing is developing.  This is already a strange beginning to summer.

Gary

Bill in Lawrence

June 23, 2008 7:16 AM
 

davidmcg said:

Well Gary you beat me on the comment on the clouds.  I hope people in KC were able to good look at the lightening last night.  We had a great view of it moving from Pottawatomie County into Miami County and it was spectacular.  We are happy that we are moving into the summer flow.  Makes for ho-hum forecasting but you never know what will pop up with afternoon heating and small nearby disturbances.  Your LRC has definitely thrown its share of surprises.  Is that conference in Denver?  With the anti-cyclone building in they will probably have bad air - smog -- in Denver.

----------------

The conference is in Denver and Boulder.  Friday, the conference is at NCAR and NOAA in Boulder.  As that Great Lakes low dives in, Colorado should get the cold front as well, so the smog won't build in this week, thank goodness.

Gary

June 23, 2008 8:29 AM
 

nitesky said:

Breezy is so lucky to have you, Gary. You've given her such a good home, and been so patient with her behavioral issues. It sounds like she's paying you back with lots of love. Way to go--I hope the kindness and care you've given her will influence other people with challenging dogs!
June 23, 2008 8:49 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

Bill - you must be a kindred spirit.  Often your references make me laugh as I wonder how many other people would get them.  Your observations are very astute for how often you discount your analysis.

Anyway, will be interesting to see how 4th of July pans out.  It will be interesting if the LRC/surface analysis is useful long range even in Summer.

I have my concerns, but think it may pan out.  Hopefully...lol

Gary, have fun in Denver...I think the Boulder stuff would be more fun than the Denver stuff....
June 23, 2008 9:04 AM
 

farmgirl said:

La Cygne got a little shower early this morning...4/10 of an inch.

********************

A nice total that I'm sure many would like to have in the next few days.  Thanks for the report!

Jeremy

June 23, 2008 9:07 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

Welcome back, Jeremy..I trust you are refreshed.  Hope you enjoyed the break!

;-)

******************

Break?  I had one day off:)  I'm really not on a 'normal' schedule until after July 4.

Jeremy

June 23, 2008 9:20 AM
 

MikeTrainor1 said:

hey... the new site is up! i like it. not a terribly radical overhaul, but cleaner. nice job! - mike
June 23, 2008 9:37 AM
 

Brocksmama said:

Is this the new weather page we've been waiting to see?  It looks different- anyway I like it!  Especially being able to scroll over the different boxes to see current temps, forecast, etc...  I am not looking forward to the 90˚ days coming up- talk about being spoiled!  I have a cousin in Phoenix and she's just melting out there so guess I really shouldn't complain!  I will be happy if we keep getting these brief showers every few days- haven't had to water my flowers in ages!  Have a great day!  Dea
June 23, 2008 9:41 AM
 

Tim in West Shawnee said:

Gary,

Good to hear that Breezy is adjusting.  That can be quite a challenge!  Have you ever watched the Dog Whisperer?  Cesar Millan is awesome, maybe he has some techniques that will help get Breezy adjusted to being around other dogs?

Have fun at the conference.  I'm sure something crazy will happen in your absence, things typically do!

Take care,
Tim

------------------

Tim,

I wrote to the Dog Whisperer, but they likely just didn't see my request.  It would make for a great segment on his show to help out Breezy.  Maybe it can still happen. But, really, Breezy has come a long way.  

Gary

June 23, 2008 9:59 AM
 

nastyweather said:

I really like the new weather page and if you look closely you can see the times on all the slides, which I think is an excellent idea.  The Sky Cam is probably my favorite addition, because it's nice to see what's really going on outside when you're inside all day.

Speaking of local weatherpages, I mention this only as possible ideas to incorporate for your page.  Another local station has developed an excellent live radar that you can zoom on and gives you real time information.  To be honest I've never seen much out of these guys, so I was shocked they had this capability.  Anyway, something I think would be a nice addition.

*********************

We are always looking for ways to impove and I think we'll continue to add to the page in the near future.

Jeremy

June 23, 2008 10:09 AM
 

JPnKC said:

Have a safe trip Gary!

------------------

Thanks, it will be a long drive with the dogs on Tuesday.

Gary

June 23, 2008 10:17 AM
 

weatherwunder said:

Gary, Congratulations on your new weather page!!!  I know I will like using it.  Am "breezing" along right now so didn't get to see all the features.  Speaking of "breezing", I'll just transition to Breezy--a great picture with her.  I have always loved seeing dear Windy (whom I met at a chili cook-off in Leavenworth many years ago) and Stormy as your Weather Dogs.  I remember when you got Stormy.  It seemed to me that Windy might feel replaced, but she got along fine for which I was thankful.

Have some great meetings in Colorado!  Hurry Back!

Jeremy, you, too, are a great forecaster, and your flexibility at working in all of the shifts is very admirable and much appreciated.  I never got the impression you didn't work enough.  

Gary, Jeremy, Brett, and Jeff--Thank you!
June 23, 2008 10:26 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

LOL - sorry Jeremy..didn't know it was just one day.  My bad.

So..here is an interesting thought...does everyone remember our friend the Omega block?

Lets refresh our memories...

http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2008/05/20/3023748.aspx

So...we began to see it set up say...May 21st.  Lets count ahead about 50 days...just for fun.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_500_360l.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-spc/getuadata.spc?MyDate1=080521&Time1=12&MyDate2=&Time2=12&Align=V&Levels=500

Jonathan - don't freak out yet..but it is part of the cycle.

So, right now, we are in the NW flow or more central troughing over the Great Lakes.  We are transitioning this week into more of a SW flow into the first week of July.  This brings the western ridging back, SW flow, and tries to push the strong western ridging we see now eastward.

It is in this movement, that it pushes that ridge or perhaps the omega over the middle of the country.  Hot hot hot.  As the western trough clears, it will try to push this ridge eastward.

This is all part of the pattern we have seen a few times this year.  While in the Spring and winter months we did not see an omega block, we did see the pattern continue to evolve from a zonal, to central troughing to western troughing and the associated ridge patterns.

Guess its not a suprise...

As a secondary curious thought, it was about this timeframe back in May in the prior cycle, there was the observation of "its suddenly dry"

http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2008/05/21/3028164.aspx

As we are in the NW flow, the spicket largely has turned off in the region for rainfall.  I have more on that in my blog.

While it has not completely stopped, it is MUCH less now that it has been the several weeks leading up to now.  Why did it stop in May?

NW flow.  Here is an example of one of the days in that stretch.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-spc/getuadata.spc?MyDate1=080517&Time1=12&MyDate2=&Time2=12&Align=V&Levels=500

Big Great Lakes Low, big ridging in the SW/W, this equates to NW flow for us.

We are in this now.  And if we notice, the rain amounts and frequently have greatly reduced in the last week or two.  I know it doesn't feel this way, but it has.

Short of a trace and a .07 amount, KMCI has been dry for 6 days.  JOCO executive has been very similar.  

This is VERY similar to the pattern back in May.  Same types of flow, same transitions and similar results at the surface.  I would not expect to see much rain in the next week or so.  We are for sure drying up a bit..which is needed for some.

Ok...so..the new weather page...

A bit cleaner.  I like the java additions.  The links are still cumbersome on the left and the overall design is better, but still needs work.  

6 features now.  Two of them are temperature related.  Two are forecast related.  One radar and one almanac.  

Ok..so...the temperature ones are what they are.  I would like to zoom, pan or otherwise move around on the ESP.  Can you condense the forecasts to just the 7 day to make room for another feature?  

I love the time lapse sky cam!  All in all, better...but the links on the left need to be cleaned up and the positioning of the sponsors seems a bit awkward?

Grade - A+ for effort.  B- for flow/functionality

June 23, 2008 10:35 AM
 

nastyweather said:

Too bad you can't train your dogs to drive Gary, because I feel sorry for anyone who has to drive I-70 to Colorado.  No offense to the hardworking farmers and ranchers out in Western Kansas and Eastern Colorado, but that drive can be torturous to stay awake.  Anyway, have a safe trip and go on a side trip of Golden for a tour of Coors.

-----------------

Thanks, but if I can just have a few CBs (Cumulonimbus clouds) along the way, then I will be entertained.

Gary

June 23, 2008 10:38 AM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

I for one like the new weather page. It is much cleaner. I like the fact that you type out what the weather will be like. The little pictures before did nothing for me. Now I just have to find out what the weather in Louisville, KY will be starting later in the week until the 1st.
Audra in Lee's Summit
June 23, 2008 11:06 AM
 

DPannell said:

I love the new weather page, lots more information and much clearer.  I think people who don't have a scientific understanding of the weather will appreciate the clarity.
I am so proud of you Gary, your committment to Breezy is an example for those who give up when confronted with behavior issues with their pets.  Our Windy, soon to be 2, has the same issues, she's great with people now but still has some problems with certain dogs.  We're still in training, and will be for some time I'm sure.  I wrote to the dog whisperer too, not just for Windy, but our dog Hoss who is a diabetic min pin.  He tolerates his shots well but blood testing is another story......
Anyway, thanks for sharing your joys and challenges with Breezy.  I believe when you adopt a dog/pet, it is with committment, understanding and perserverance.  You certanily have shown all 3.  Gotta love those furry friends of ours!
Ok...back to the weather =)
Brief shower this morning in Paola, I headed out with Windy for our usual 5am walk, it was thundering and lightning a bit in the distance but I thought we would probably be ok, as I had checked the radar before leaving.  We got about 15 minutes into our walk and a shower started, heavy but brief.  Fortunately we were downtown Paola on the square so we could duck under some awnings and continue walking. The shower only lasted about 3 minutes, refreshing actually.  I'm looking forward to 90 degree days this week...I know...I'm in the minority on that!  ha!
Have a great trip Gary!
Have a great day everyone =)))!
--deb,dave,hoss,popeye and windy

----------------

Thanks to all of you!  Yes, I have had more issues with Breezy than with any other dog I have had.  She has come a long way, and we will keep working with her.  I will let you know how our trip to Colorado goes.  I am sure to have some stories.  I have a tent made for dogs, for them to stay in the hotel room while I am at the conference. They both fit in there.

Gary

June 23, 2008 11:18 AM
 

bewild79 said:

Gary,
You can tell you are sooo commited to your dogs and that is cool!  I just got a small dog on saturday.  She is a malteece (spelling?) only 11 weeks old and my husband named her Snoopy.  Its great how quick you can connect and become attached to animals.
Anyway, have a safe trip.
Becky

------------

Becky,

Yes, and dogs teach unconditional love!

Gary

June 23, 2008 11:22 AM
 

kcroyals05 said:

Gary and weather team.

Thanks for the GREAT weather over the weekend.  Lane conditions were ideal for the PBA Regional tournament this past weekend in Belton.  

I finished 6th place in the ProAm on Friday night.     Hopefully we will have the same weather conditions next year when the Pro Bowlers come back for the regional tournament.  I'll be bowling in the regional next year...

Have a safe trip...

Bill
Grandview

-------------

Bill, congrats!  I will have to challenge you at bowling sometime.

Gary

June 23, 2008 12:07 PM
 

Mark M said:

Love the new weather page.  What is we could add a link to the scout cameras so we can see either snapshots or video from the cameras.

------------

We are going to add more cameras.

Gary

June 23, 2008 12:10 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Gary, love the new page, i'm glad to see that Breezy is doing great and I love that picture of you two.

Scott, ME, FORGET? no no I don't forget things like the OMEGA BLOCK! lol Scott I read your blog on your page and i really loved it but I couldn't figure out how to log back in and leave a comment but that's great analysis there buddy congrats!
June 23, 2008 1:09 PM
 

Emmysmom said:

I have a 1/2 day off tomorrow and would love to be able to clean my car and garage out, but with the forecasted rain, that could be a problem.  Gary said some areas will get missed again.  Best guess for right now, who do you think will see rain in the afternoon and when?

Have a safe trip, Gary!
June 23, 2008 1:15 PM
 

kvluvalcsens said:

Love the new page!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
June 23, 2008 1:19 PM
 

Sheree said:

Love the new page!  You guys are the best!
June 23, 2008 1:53 PM
 

siegel12 said:

I like the new weather page. Very interesting.
The latest: a stationary front is draped across east central Kansas. Storms could fire later this afternoon along that front. SPC doesn't predict a widespread severe weather outbreak today, but some storms could produce marginally severe hail. I am very concerned about tomorrow, with the warm front moving north through Kansas and Missouri and the very humid airmass south of it. Based on SPC data, if we have enough morning sunshine to create instability, any storm that erodes the cap tomorrow could quickly become severe. With modest wind shear and enough instability, the ingredients are in place for a tornado outbreak near the metro.

------------------

No, the ingredients are NOT there for a tornado outbreak tomorrow.  There is not nearly enough flow aloft, but there may be some hail and wind. 

Gary

June 23, 2008 1:54 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

siegel,

Upon first reading your entry..I was thinking "no way".  However, upon further review...I can sorta see what you are looking at.

The lower level wind profiles will be somewhat favorable.  Helicity should be good, but it all seems to be directly tied to the upper level vorticity progged to come through tomorrow.

I wonder about the instability.  I think it will be a bit light.  Also, I think the progged lapse rates are a bit low.

If..if something can form, there is that potential..but right now...I think there are some ingredients missing.

Maybe?  I think it is going to be a meso day tomorrow for analysis.  The large scale features are so weak right now, it will be largely localized.

The SPC gives it a sporting chance....

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Guess we will have to watch the little bit of vorticity through the overnight into mid day to see what may come of it.

-------------------

We obviously have to watch it closely, but the winds in the middle and upper atmosphere are only 20 knots or so. This is NOT a tornado set-up.  You never know for sure what the local environment around an individual thunderstorm can produce, but overall it just doesn't have enough support worthy of this discussion today.

Gary

June 23, 2008 2:35 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

Yes I like the changes, more interactive!!  I seen those storms last night on the radar and the T-storm watch to the SW of the region, very interesting looking.  Well LRC 2007-2008 is now starting on its final chapter... Summer.  Before we know it the roulette wheel will be back up and spinning!  Have a good trip to Colorado!

---------------------------

Nick,

Yes, the roulette wheel will begin spinning in three months. I would say last year we picked a row of numbers and got that row.  It still wasn't right on our spot, but it did land in the right spot for Wisconsin.

Gary

June 23, 2008 2:41 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

OHHH..this cracks me up.  LMAO

Gary/Jeremy, our friends at EAX have left you a little note in the forecast discussion...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

"AN INTERESTING TIDBIT. THE FACT THAT WE HAVE NOT YET HIT 90 DEGREES
IN KANSAS CITY IS NOT AS RARE AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT. IN FACT...SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1888...THERE HAVE BEEN 11 OCCURRENCES WHERE 90
DEGREES WAS NOT REACHED UNTIL AFTER JUNE 23RD...MOST RECENTLY IN
2004 WHERE 90 DEGREES WAS NOT REACHED UNTIL JULY 11TH! MUCH LIKE
THIS YEAR...UNUSUALLY WET WEATHER KEPT THE MERCURY DOWN INTO THE
EARLY SUMMER.

BOOKBINDER
"

--------------------

Scott,

Who said that it was rare?  Last year we only hit 90 once in June, at KCI.  The point that I am making is that it hasn't been 90 at either downtown or KCI airport.  That is a bit more rare!

Gary

June 23, 2008 2:45 PM
 

RDub said:

11 occurrences in 120 years....I'd still call that "rare" myself. 2004 was a freakishly cool summer; I think the highest temperature all year was 95.

----------------

The highest temperature was 95 in 2004.  We will see what happens this year, very soon.

Gary

June 23, 2008 2:58 PM
 

Awtherfrd said:

Gary, my wife likes the shirt you are wearing in the picture and wants to know where you got it. Sorry for not being weather related.

---------------

Thanks, I think I got it last year when I went to Cape Cod.

Gary

June 23, 2008 3:07 PM
 

TaterPoker69 said:

Gary
Love the new weather page.  What is the possibility of adding some of the Powercast graphics.  I know you don't want the competition to get them, but that's what we watch the newscasts for?  Keep up the GREAT work and enjoy Denver.

Tater

--------------

Tater,

Thanks for the suggestion.  Maybe, but as you said, we don't want to give too much away. LOL  We will consider it.

Gary

June 23, 2008 3:11 PM
 

mamaof3girls said:

It was loud last night for about an hour but I got no more than a trace out of all that. That whole mess of thunderstorms just barely missed me.

I like the new look of the weather page but am alittle irritated that their is a gray bar on the bottom of the ESP radar and I can not see my county or the the ones to the west. I have moved my cursor around and it does not go away. Is it me??

I am sure hoping the rain holds off this week...we have 5 T-ball games to get in this week alone and 2 of them are make up games.

Have a good time in CO!! Jeremy, from Topeka, does a great job filling in for you all. Have a great day!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

-----------------

Monica,

That grey bar shouldn't be there.  We will keep track of it.  I saw it too.

Gary

June 23, 2008 3:11 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Gary, I have no skin in this discussion...as much as the topic of "when will it hit 90?" has come up in the blog, I thought this topical.

I haven't been tracking this one as much regarding who said what when...just thought it interesting to see that in the NWS discussion...almost seemed like "an open letter to the editor"...

Rdub, I agree..semantics I suppose.  Maybe not rare, but certainly not common.

Gary - looking at the new page, and looking out at the last date of the 7-day - Sunday, that is the first day of the 4th of July forecast challenge.

You currently show 86 and sunny.  Certainly that would set the course regarding some of the forecasts that were captured.  [I would like it to warm up a few degrees that day if I may make a request.]

Two out of the ten forecasts captured had rain that day.

Will be fun to track these.

------------------

We are inching closer to the challenge.

Gary

June 23, 2008 3:17 PM
 

Mammatus said:

Looks there is is a chance though of an Isolated Tornado tomorrow eve so I wouldn't rule it out completely. Here is what the pleasant hill discussion says:
WILL BASE THE FCST ON THE PREMISE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTN WITH SBCAPES RISING
TO ABOVE 2000 J/KG. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND IN ADV OF A SHORTWAVE MVG INTO NWRN MO. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN ENHANCED HELICITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

------------------------

The wind fields are not favorable at all for it, but whenever you have a strong thunderstorm we have to watch it closely.

Gary

June 23, 2008 3:34 PM
 

RDub said:

Now that the new weather page is up, is there any way to put a link on the blog page that takes you straight to the new weather page?
June 23, 2008 4:17 PM
 

Mark M said:

One thing that would be nice to see, is when the forecast was last updated.  A time stamp would be nice to see if anything has changed.
June 23, 2008 4:37 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

everytime I scroll down to the bottom of this page it asks me what I think...I think your all nuts. along with my imaginary friend.
June 23, 2008 4:47 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Gary,

Here is something for Bill.  On the new page, the Skyview and the ESP don't always load on the "onHover" function.

I have tried it on two different computers one with IE and one with Firefox. Also, as a side note, the streaming live NBC Weather Plus hasn't worked for atleast a few days.

Also, for the links to the left, having a consistent response would be good...some open in a new screen while some open within the same window.

On the Weather Maps link, selecting the local weather and ESP LIVE - HD Loop, it doesn't work.  Doesn't load.

Your link for weather alerts is a nice function.  You should try to use this more.  It has good information.

More than anything, it would be nice if these links loaded in the new weather framework.  In clicking them, it takes you away from the weather page.

Anyway, probably more than you wanted to know..and probably should have sent it directly to the webmaster [Bill], but wanted it out there in case others were finding the same things.

-------------------------

Scott,

Yes, we are aware of these problems.  Keep on top of us this week, and hopefully it will be a nicely oiled engine, and working by the end of this week.

Gary

June 23, 2008 5:24 PM
 

Luthur said:

Yes, a time stamp for sure.  Good idea.

--

"11 occurrences in 120 years....I'd still call that "rare" myself."

Ditto. Perhaps not bloody rare, but medium rare at least.
June 23, 2008 6:10 PM
 

Luthur said:

One other thing with the weather page... the ad in the middle (Certified Transmission.  I'm sure they do great work).  Ads are part of the reality of web pages, but ads in the middle of content are annoying.  It should go on the side.

Another suggestion.  The NWS has weather histories for each region.  It takes a few clicks to get to it from their home page.  Perhaps providing a link to the weather history of KC.  Biggest snow, hottest dry, avg. rainfall for a certain month, etc... I think lots of average weather hobbyists like me would utilize it.  
June 23, 2008 6:15 PM
 

FairwayMed said:

Hey Gary,

I love the picture of you with Breezy. My parents in Denver have a Weimeraner who has been a bit of a problem child for the last two years they have had him. Early on he would chew on absolutely anything he could find, inside and out. He also had some other behavior issues. Over time with lots of work he has begun to get better. My parents have actually been taking him to Denver's version of the Dog Whisperer and they say it has been helping tremendously!

I have been very lucky with my adopted dog who causes almost no issues, besides the occasional digging in the back yard and jumping up on people.

I hope you have an excellent time in Denver and Boulder. I can't wait to move back in one month!

My wife and I have plans to go to the Royals game tomorrow night. Do you think the rain will be gone by then or will it possibly affect our evening?

Thanks,

Mark

-------------------

Mark,

Thanks, and the thunderstorms should be out of here by sometime tomorrow evening.

Gary

June 23, 2008 7:38 PM
 

siegel12 said:

I made a very stupid mistake before issuing my earlier forecast about a possible tornado outbreak tomorrow. I only went off of the frontal setup and the humid airmass in front of it, as well as data from the Storm Prediction Center, without checking the conditions aloft. It's now clear that we are under no threat for an organized tornado event (although there always could be an isolated tornado with a supercell). My apologies for any inconvenience or alarmed bloggers. Next time, I'll check ALL the data before making predictions.
June 23, 2008 7:42 PM
 

Luthur said:

Siefel12 -

Much respect to you to admit you might be wrong.  I wish other posters on this blog would do the same instead of Doom & Gloom all the time and then constantly challenging a weather team that has professional creditials.  

Of course, you do know, that tomorrow will be a massive tornadic outbreak over our area.  Murphy's Law or something.
June 23, 2008 8:21 PM
 

whirlygirl said:

I agree. It doesn't take much for someone to read that and become alarmed. Gary emphasized twice that this is NOT a tornado set up and I agree with Luthur. It's nice to see someone recant and apologize.
June 23, 2008 9:15 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Gary,

What would you think about adding a weather chat room to the weather page, so everyone could talk in real time, I think it would be cool to chat with the weather team, and bloggers, and everyone else.


Alex
June 23, 2008 9:40 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

everything that can go wrong will go wrong...been a victim of that many times. I'll let Gary or Jeremy tell me if there's a threat for tornadoes for tomorrow. I don't see it.
June 23, 2008 9:59 PM
 

Lorie in SW MO said:

There shouldn't be bad weather tomorrow ~ after all it's not Thursday ;-)

Well, I should've listened to our local weather guy last night or at least looked at the forecast before going to bed. It was a wild and crazy night with one cell right after another. They kept issuing and re-issuing severe T-storm warnings. My weather radio was going crazy and I finally turned it off. I know, not supposed to do that but I also have a service that calls my cell when storms effect the gps of my home. I called 4 times. We did have strong wind and quarter/golf ball size hail.

I'm off to watch my local now to see if I can sleep tonight.
June 23, 2008 10:01 PM
 

bellgolf08 said:

Gary have fun in Colorado. Those AMS meetings seem like they can be very intresting and very educational. I am hoping to go to some when join the AMS Chapter at Mizzou
June 23, 2008 10:29 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

Gary,

Why no microcast/futurecast/powercast (I don't remember which one you guys have) stuff tonight to time out the rain/thunderstorms for tonight/tomorrow?  By the end of your forecast, I was still a bit miffed as to when you thought things would move in.

The new weather page is a slight improvement over the other and I agree with others that you could really use a zoom feature on the radar...people want to be able to see specifics in their area, you know?
June 23, 2008 10:29 PM
 

Matt P said:

Okay, Gary.  Here's your caption for the people:

"Dog Whisperer?  Forget that!  I need the Meteorologist Whisperer before this guy strangles me."

Thanks for the reminder of Cape Cod.  It's been a number of years since I've been fortunate to be out there.  I'll have to drag my wife and kids back there for a vacation in the next year or two.
June 23, 2008 11:20 PM
 

Randy Cooper said:

wow is anyone here?
June 24, 2008 12:25 AM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Im here Randy! I wish these storms would hurry up and get here! I am waiting!
June 24, 2008 1:13 AM
 

suz01 said:

Just stepped in to check the weather discussion and radar before I crash. The radar animation on wunderground's regional radar looks like a dragon breathing fire! (it's late).
June 24, 2008 2:10 AM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

I just started raining about 5 minutes ago here in Lee's Summit. Thunder woke me up around 20 minutes ago. Nothing too severe yet, just noisy. I can't decide if it is decreasing or increasing based on the noise.
Audra
June 24, 2008 3:39 AM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

Well I just looked at the radar again and the cell that woke me up is growning in size, figures. I guess that answers my question if the thunderstorm was increasing or decreasing. The rain is coming in bands. It will rain, then stop (or at least I don't hear it) and then it will start again.
Audra in Lee's Summit
June 24, 2008 3:47 AM
 

VdoManZ said:

looks like it's about to come down again again in SE Lee's Summit.. .08 inches of rain overnight
June 24, 2008 7:12 AM
 

sertorius said:

Good cloudy but dry morning to the Weather Team this morning!! Did not get a drop here in SW Lawrence this morning but did get to see some pretty good lightening strikes this morning off to the east-great show!!!!

A couple of random musings/observations this morning that like always, I hope are some what on track!!!!

1. Looking at the latest surface observations it does appear that the front is well north of Lawrence this morning and I think just north of St. Joseph?? Will be interesting to watch and see how it moved through the day today.



2. It also appears that there is a weak area of surface low pressure sitting over Colby, Kansas this morning-around 1009 MB-very weak, but it is there. Will this be able to hold together and help drag the front down while at the same time helping to increase our dew points today? Or more so, is it even out there (cue Pink Floyd before Comfortably Numb!!!!)



3. There also appears to be a slight dry line developing as there are some upper 40’s to lower 50’s dew points behind this weak area of low pressure-does that hold together today as well? My dew point is right around 68 this morning and you can feel all 68 degrees of it for sure!!!


4. Looking at the models, it appears that the 500 vort max is forecasted to be much weaker than yesterday as it comes across and appears to be tracking a bit further North than what was forecasted yesterday.


5. Looking at the 9Z RUC soundings, it appears that the CAP is indeed weakening rapidly at about 18Z today as the 700 MB temps are about 8 degrees Celsius and then at 600 MB they are below freezing. Also, by about 21Z, the RUC shows the front beginning to sag south.

6. The cloud cover: lots of debris from the MCS this morning-it does appear to be clearing SW of Lawrence this morning-if it does clear, how will the heating affect things? If it doesn’t, will it really inhibit development later today??


7. Finally: the models: neither the 9Z RUC or 6Z GFS is very bullish on qpf for the area-however, I wonder if maybe they are not having trouble figuring out where the storms will fire etc.

Man, I have really done it again!! Sorry so long, but I think this afternoon will be interesting to watch and to be honest, Lawrence could use a bit of rain as it has been over a week since we have had measurable rain fall. Yes, fields are even getting dry in some parts of Douglas County right now. Also, as we get later in the summer, opportunities to follow events like this grow sparse indeed so it is fun to watch a front and just see what happens!!! Will be fun to track and just see what happens!!!!

Have a great and fantastic day and as always thanks for reading!!!

Bill in Lawrence



June 24, 2008 7:20 AM
 

bewild79 said:

hmmmm....do we get a new blog this morning?
June 24, 2008 8:07 AM
 

whirlygirl said:

We are a demanding group LOL We want this kind of weather. We want our blogs done in a timely manner,even though you guys have a life and a real job. We want more things on the weather page than what you worked on and we don't wanna wait. We want the LRC proved today. We demand explanations for why you have days off and someone else covers the weather.
At least we're all patient and understanding, right? ROFL
June 24, 2008 9:14 AM
 

whirlygirl said:

FWIT, Bill, I like your long blogs so keep em coming.
June 24, 2008 9:15 AM
 

twister11 said:

rain, rain, go away....
June 24, 2008 9:52 AM
 

mcmallory said:

The new page is really awesome....need a "v" in redeveloping however on Today's forecast.  Keep up the great work.

Catherine
June 24, 2008 10:02 AM
 

MrSteve said:

Weather Page looks great. Tell your Web Team though to not get carried away with bells and whistles that add little useful value other then clutter to avoid frustrating the end users.
June 24, 2008 10:15 AM
 

MrSteve said:

The auto scroll over effect with the ESP Live-Regional Temperatures-Etc is PERFECT.

Don't mess with it anymore!

LOL

June 24, 2008 10:18 AM
 

MrSteve said:

The main page is clean, effective, and gives people all they want to know easily and immediately.  Nice work. My only other suggestion is put any extra features on another page linked from the main. To avoid clutter.

The first time I checked out 9's page for example my first impression was "what the heck is this?  After a few clicks I thought "forget it!" and haven't been back since.

June 24, 2008 10:27 AM
 

siegel12 said:

Very humid outside. Thunderstorms fired earlier this morning across much of the city. I wonder if the front is north of Shawnee already. The humid airmass is already in place.
What happens this afternoon depends on the instability, which will increase when and if we see sunshine. In any case, according to SPC, there is NO threat for tornadoes whatsoever in or around the city. The strongest storms could produce marginally severe hail or damaging wind gusts. The biggest threat seems to be north of the city. Storms could fire by mid to late afternoon.
Check Jeremy's (or Brett's) forecast just to be sure. I missed it this morning.
June 24, 2008 10:50 AM
 

siegel12 said:

The more I look at the radar, the less I think that we will see a good deal of sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere. The radar west of town gets pretty juicy and there are also scattered showers or thunderstorms north of town right now.
June 24, 2008 10:56 AM
 

bewild79 said:

Is there a possibility of a new blog?
June 24, 2008 11:35 AM
 

bewild79 said:

The SPC has us in a 2% for tornado threat today Siegel12.
June 24, 2008 11:38 AM
 

whirlygirl said:

Two percent is basically nothing. Not really worth mentioning.
June 24, 2008 11:46 AM
 

Mammatus said:

2% means there is a chance versus no chance at all. We had a 2%-5% chance a week and a half or so ago when we had the wall clouds, funnel clouds and the touchdown in Linwood. So 2% isn't much but if a Tornado touches down, then that 2% becomes 100% for a specific area.
June 24, 2008 11:53 AM
 

whirlygirl said:

You're right Mammatus. Then again, if anyone needs a reason to worry I guess we can find one.
June 24, 2008 12:01 PM
 

northlandergal said:

Gary I was just out in Boulder this past weekend. It is beautiful there. I wish KC had nice cool weather like they do. Have fun on your trip!
June 24, 2008 12:01 PM
 

bewild79 said:

I wasn't saying it for worry..it was stated in an earlier comment that there was no threat whatsoever around kc and I had just seen the 2% on the SPC so I posted it.  I am not worried.
June 24, 2008 12:08 PM
 

Mammatus said:

Not worried either. Usually when there is a 2% tornado threat, we can usually expect some decent T-boomers at least. Its humid as heck here in Shawnee.
June 24, 2008 12:14 PM
 

PatsSoxCelts said:

Flash Flood watch
June 24, 2008 12:18 PM
 

Mammatus said:

It is getting very unstable in Northeast Kansas rather quickly. Crav/sig parameters are 30 and rising as well as 3000 Mu Cape spreading in from the west. Significant hail and shear parameters are looking quite impressive too. There is filtered sunshine through alot of eastern Kansas so we may some pop ups sooner than later.
June 24, 2008 12:18 PM
 

siegel12 said:

Mammatus, you've noticed the humidity as well. Dew points must be around 70 here. It's freakin' uncomfortable outside. We're not getting much sunshine, but what we are getting is enough to destabilize the atmosphere, probably because it rained overnight.
Bewild79, you are correct, since 10AM they have upgraded us to a 2% chance for tornadoes. We still have a 15% chance of wind/hail. Conditions aloft still do not seem to favor tornadoes, but I don't have the technology to conclusively determine anything in that department. I wouldn't worry about it though. 2% chance within 30 miles of a point isn't very good.
June 24, 2008 12:35 PM
 

Emmysmom said:

So...anyone know the update on what is going to happen the rest of the day?  When is the rain coming back???
June 24, 2008 12:45 PM
 

bewild79 said:

I was not trying to be a smart alec or anything...just put it on here since I saw it. :)
June 24, 2008 12:53 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I say there is a 30 percent chance of a new blog. and a 2 percent chance of tornadoes and 15 percent chance of severe hail and 15 percent chance of severe wind under 65 knots. sun is trying to poke through. it's time for a look at the satellite.
June 24, 2008 1:14 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Becky, everyone knows your not a smart alec and your one of the nicest people in the world no worries.
June 24, 2008 1:14 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

the cold front is loaded with clouds. no instability there.
June 24, 2008 1:20 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Thanks Jonathan!  :)
June 24, 2008 1:22 PM
 

Mammatus said:

I would imagine we may a possibly see a mesoscale Discussion issued over Eastern Kansas/Western Missouri within the next 3 hours. Things are getting very Unstable around the Emporia area and points north and east. The only question is if there is an outflow boundary or something to get some forcing in that area. 4000 Mu cape and some shear and 70 degree Dewpoints. We shall see what pops up I suppose.
June 24, 2008 1:45 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Doing a quick scan of the metro PWS, dew points are in the mid to upper 60s with some sites at 70 degree dewpoints.  

Temps vary quite a bit with readings in the low 70s to some readings in the southern tier up into the upper 80s.

Likely the difference is due to cloud cover and quick temp rises due to direct sunlight.

In looking at the sat loop, the ULL is very well shown with the trailing boundary.  I would expect this boundary to continue eastward with the general storm movement SW/NE along the line.

Surface convergence is very weak.  In fact, from a large scale there is little to speak of.  Looking at the soundings, sheer isn't that bad in the upper levels.  Not as bad as I had expected.

The temps are quite cold down to the 850 mb level, so hail could be possible.  All in all, nothing looks ominous, but rather normal for an early Summer thunderstorm.

In looking at the SPC convective discussion, it looks about dead on to me.  

Jonathan, just because there are clouds - it doesn't mean instability is absent.  I can be used as a loose trend, but there are different elements that go into the mix.  Remember, instability can be surface and elevated.  These play into how storms evolve and how they form.

While cloud cover may inhibit surface based CAPE, elevated CAPE can still be strong enough to form thunderstorms.  This is the case right now.  Sometimes, storms form in an elevated manner and become more surface rooted as it can encounter some low level instability and sheer.

All in all, instability is fine for development, and would not be suprised to see quite a bit of rain fall over some areas as these storms have a great deal of moisture to work with and will be hitting some unlucky folks time and time again this evening.  

Would not be suprised to see some big numbers of rainfall come from some localized locations.
June 24, 2008 1:53 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Mammatus, while the CAPEs are growing, I share your same concern about what is going to get the forcing going?  

As I thought above, surface convergence is non existent, so that leaves the upper level vort to bring in cooler temps aloft to allow ascent.  I am thinking this is the main mechnism to development.

With low level sheer decent, I would be most interested to watch the storm mode and what will come of these storms.  My gut tells me it is similar to some of the other storms we have seen that want to spin and produce some quasi wall clouds, but just don't have enough oomph to drop 'em.

Not sure if that would be widespread this evening, but would not be suprised if there is a wall or funnel cloud recorded somewhere with this event in the region.
June 24, 2008 1:57 PM
 

vhaldky said:

Gary~  Have a safe and informative trip!!  My co-worker is attending an outdoor wedding tonight so we are hoping for NO RAIN!!  Breezy and Stormy are gorgeous dogs!  I can NOT wait until I am in a house and I can get a lovely dog of my own.  My dad breeds, trains, and shows Border Collie's.  I am so excited to one day, hopefully soon, have a dog of my own to love!

Take care,
Victoria H.
June 24, 2008 2:00 PM
 

Mammatus said:

Yeah I agree KCwx. We just need some sort of lifting mechanism. Instability is growing rapidly so im curious what the line of showers west of us heading into that instability will do. Maybe that will increase lift just ahead of that line a bit to get something going. The lifted index is quite high just west of us. With the good freezing levels aloft, one storm may be all it takes. Once we get just one or 2 cells popping, the Outflow from those storms will get things going nicely I would imagine.
June 24, 2008 2:05 PM
 

Mammatus said:

NWS in Pleasant Hill see's the same thing.....But I would think that may be a little further south than I-70.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA MAY BE SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WARM FRONT. THE TORNADO THREAT IS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.
June 24, 2008 2:08 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Victoria - we have a bordercollie/brittany mix - he's a HANDFUL but I wouldn't trade him for the world!  Along with a beagle and a lab/shephard mix. BC's are some of the smartest dogs in the world - just like to have lots of mental stimulation!  It is great to have your own place and can get whatever animals you want!  Until, that is, the animals run you out of your bed, your living room, your bathroom . . . Ha ha!  Laura.
June 24, 2008 2:08 PM
 

Mammatus said:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/frames.php?sector=1

KCWXGUY, This is interesting too. The Sig Tornado Parameters are growing too??
June 24, 2008 2:11 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Hey Jonathan!  Wassup?  from The Dummy
June 24, 2008 2:12 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

The NWS is using the 1-70 corridor as the rough guide to the warm front placement that would enact a bit more surface convergence, so I can see the thinking...

Let me check out the SPC meso product and look for the spots...
June 24, 2008 2:14 PM
 

dougbce said:

SPC in Oklahoma has also redone there Outlooks since this morning and now has KC just about dead center in the slight risk circle.
2% tornado
15% wind
15% hail

and it is beginning to feel like glue outside.
June 24, 2008 2:20 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

The sigs are still rather low.  While growing, not too concerning.  More concerning is the deep moisture transport and the PW in place.

These storms could dump alot of rain in localized areas.  CAPES look good, lift looks good, just need them to fire up and it will be a little bit of a show tonight to watch.

Not very excited, but sure beats a warm humid and uneventful summer night.

LOL
June 24, 2008 2:21 PM
 

Kimberly said:

I have a border collie/lab mix. Sweetest dog in the world, but he can be handful. We got him free from a fireworks stand last summer. He is just a year old now.   He has to have lots to do. He wants to play or go on walks all the time, and needs lots of things to chew on, or he chews up furniture or the siding off our house.   Our old dog is golden mix with about every thing else. He looks at the BC/Lab like he is crazy.  
June 24, 2008 2:23 PM
 

nastyweather said:

Just getting up to speed on things and not reading what everyone's said, are we still on track for rain or T-storms this afternoon and evening?
June 24, 2008 2:23 PM
 

Mammatus said:

Considering things are going to more or less shut off very soon as far as exciting weather, This could be one of our last hoorahs before the dog days of summer settle in. Oh well. We will see what happens.
June 24, 2008 2:24 PM
 

whirlygirl said:

Yes Nasty, there's a 2% chance for tornadoes. We've been in a slight risk from the SPC all day and now we're in the center of the risk instead of the side of it. Run for the hills LOLOL

**********************

I don't think anyone should get too wrapped up in the tornado threat today.  I would put this in the category of any storm this time of year could be severe and an isolated tornado can never be ruled out.  But right now the ULL is clearly over southeast Nebraska on the visible satellite and the warm front is right over Kansas City.  If there is any severe weather that develops it will likely be north of I-70.  A few t-storms are trying to develop west and northwest of KC.

Jeremy

June 24, 2008 2:29 PM
 

dougbce said:

Mamatus the SPC write up is indicating Friday & Saturday might be quite active as well.  I haven't looked at them yet so not sure.

******************

There's a decent front coming thru Friday Night.  Saturday looks good after 6 a.m.  If the front stays on track we could see thunderstorms anywhere from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning.

Jeremy

June 24, 2008 2:34 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Brett said this morning on the weather that it would be just 81 on Saturday after a cold front comes through -- so I guess it makes sense for rain Friday night - but I must have tuned that out!  I was thinking since it'd only be 80 I'll wash my car real well!  Oh well.  
June 24, 2008 2:38 PM
 

Mammatus said:

I saw that dougbce. It looks like that may be another chance. Actually that looks much better than today because of the wind fields.
June 24, 2008 2:39 PM
 

dougbce said:

really impressive cell to southwest of Beatrice Nebraska poped up in the last 15 minutes.
June 24, 2008 2:41 PM
 

Mammatus said:

The rain to the west is starting to intensify a bit, think we may see that get going soon. Some severe cells in Southeastern Nebraska too growing rapidly.
June 24, 2008 2:41 PM
 

Jenn6428 said:

Does anyone have any idea when we should expect these storms here tonight.  Thanks.
June 24, 2008 2:42 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Not holding out hope for Friday/Sat.  Wrong pattern for much excitement in my opinion.

The NW flow is a tease at best.
June 24, 2008 2:42 PM
 

Mammatus said:

Maybe a decent Mcs on Friday night.
June 24, 2008 2:45 PM
 

whirlygirl said:

Sorry Jeremy. it might rain somewhere in the metro today. Suddenly people are suggesting severe weather, mentioning tornados. I udnerstand at this time of year a cell can go severe and any severe cell can go tornadic. But the risk is so low that it seems silly to kep pointing out every severe cell that might swoop down from another state. relax people. This is not a PDS.
June 24, 2008 2:58 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

This past winter was my first time on this blog . . . what does everyone talk about when there's no weather, just HOT summer?  Do Jeremy and Gary still post a blog every day?  Do you just watch weather in other places and figure it out?  Or does it just shut down until winter then?
June 24, 2008 2:59 PM
 

bewild79 said:

I don't see anyone freaking out thinking that this is a PDS.  I have only seen people mention the fact of tornados but no one seems concerned. :)
June 24, 2008 3:04 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

I actually DO like loud storms - it's the hail and tornados that always scare me - so if we get some loud ones tonight, all the better!  :)  I never thought we were gonna get tornados - I can tell when you guys are joking!  Mostly . . .
June 24, 2008 3:06 PM
 

dougbce said:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1549
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0300 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...NE KS...NW MO
June 24, 2008 3:06 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

new blog, folks.
June 24, 2008 3:10 PM
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