NBC Action Communities

What?  No doom - no gloom?  What fun is that?  LOL.  This is a non event, but just enough stuff in the parameters if you squint and turn your head sideways to make this look scarier than it is.

This is a mini vort with not much support that may bring some isolated severe weather in the general region...

Ok...so, Jeremy gave us the voice of reason...back to the regularly scheduled armageddon.

Oh..as a side note, now we have TWO days on the 7 day forecast to ponder about regarding the 4th of July forecasts.  If it pans out starting those two days, then quite a few people may be out of the running for the most accurate long term forecast.

In addtion to that side note, Jeremy...I am needing Sunday to top out a few degrees warmer.  Can you work on that for me?

Thanks in advance - ;-)

so far, today's total is up to .38" of rain...although its still raining.  

i have been gone for a while :( , whats this about july 4th forecasts and most accurate long term forecasts? can i throw mine out there? or is it too late?

As Jeremy stated...nothing to see here...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1549.html

"telestrated?"  What the heck's that mean?

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Gary used 'magic track' to place rain totals in different areas.  Magic track is the technology that allows us to drop text, icons, etc. on the maps.  The clicker acts like the mouse on a computer.  That is telestrating:)

Jeremy 

i bet there will be some good lighting, perhaps some small hail to go along with heavy rain...atleast its not in the 90's :).

i hate the heat.  

HA!  I noticed some of the verbiage of the blog above changed, Jeremy...

Where did the statement about "you and Jeff Penner don't think much about this setup" go?

Leave it in there...I liked that part the best.  

Some people made forecasts/guesses for the 4th of july week back in May sometime. Too late for new entries.

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I'll enter about this Friday when the 7 day shows the week of the 4th:)

Jeremy

pvt - we did them back on May 15th.  Notes challenged some of us pattern people to put out a long range detailed forecast based on LRC/Pattern analysis.

Gary, Notes, me, and about 7 others submitted forecasts for high/low temps, PoPs, and rain amounts for the days between June 29-July 5.

Notes has saved them on his forum for reference.  KMCI is the official measuring location as to remove all ambiguity.  We are seeing who is closest to the actual event.

You are welcome to do your own forecast, but having model guidence would give you a somewhat unfair advantage.... ;-)

That is why this blog is so interesting and at times annoying, You have Meteorologist downplaying the severe threat(no hard feelings Jeremy) and you have a blogger saying we(Chasers and weather fanatics) are making a big deal out of nothing, and then you have the SPC issuing the Meso correlationg to what we were talking about on the previous blog. Anyways, I don't think anyone is trying to freak anyone out here like some think that some of us weather minded folks do. Like I have said before, this is a weather blog, it is here for us to  talk about weather so thats what some of us enjoy doing, talking about weather.

Hi Jeremy,here in se lee's summit i have received .20 in the gauge.  kristy

So it sounds like we MIGHT get just a storm watch out of the mesoscale discussion from the SPC?  Not a tornado watch?  Fine by me!  We need some water on the yards before the fourth and before fireworks start in the neighborhoods.

"I'll enter about this Friday when the 7 day shows the week of the 4th:)"

Jeremy, is that how you would win the contests back in college?  LOL

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Or the competition was really weak.

So, it looks like us in drexel may miss out on the storms tonight?

holy moly Erin, what part of the country do you live in that you need water on the yard.  Mine is still growing like crazy and still feels like mush.

Mammatus, this is kinda what my thinking is. The KSHB team has stated there is no big deal. Now I did hear that once or twice in the past coupla weeks and there were wall clouds and baby funnels. So which way do ya go? You put your trust in the local team right? The SPC has us in slight risks alot lately and I figure it's because it's summer and this is moist (juicy sounds icky) weather that can make a thunderstorm which can make a tornado...maybe. So they have to be prepared right? Personally , I look out the window at the sky. If it looks dark I wait for thunder and lightning. If I get some cool. If not oh well. I don't see it and think oh that might be green so I should put on my surge protector and wait in the basement. I love weather.

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I don't remember saying it is 'no big deal'.  But I want to stress the tornado threat is very small this evening.

Jeremy

Its all a guessing game whirlygirl when you really think about it. We can get put in a PDS and have very minimal severe weather and then we can get put in a slight risk and have EF3 tornadoes...LOL. Who knows. I guess in a way Im glad im not a meteorologist because they get criticized when they are right and when they are wrong it seems like. Kudo's to the NBC weather team though, they are the best in town and I trust their forecasts over anyone else, you guys do rock!!! Lets see if we get any storms worth mentioning.

Jeremy,

I am comforted knowing your eyes are to skies for us tonight!

Thanks for all your hard work with the NBC Action Weather Team!

Take care,
Victoria H.

I have to be a little over protective of my yard around the 4th-a few years ago our yard was so dry (obviously not quite the case this year) that a bottle rocket that went astray started a small fire in our yard.  I've never seen my husband and the neighbor guys run so fast as when they ran over to tap it out.  The fourth is still a week and a half away so hopefully we'll get a tiny bit of rain so that doesn't happen again!!  But I live in Gardner so I think we've received over 6 inches recently...

  dougbce said:
holy moly Erin, what part of the country do you live in that you need water on the yard.  Mine is still growing like crazy and still feels like mush.

I'm not sure where Erin lives but I live in Prairie Village and my yard is starting to hurt in spots.  I doubt that 2 or 3 tenths we got this morning will last very long.  Some of could use some rain believe it or not.  

I don't know about where you all live but around here the fireworks have been going off for about a week with more and more everyday.  I would like rain everyday for awhile to keep everything nice and moist.

whirlygirl -

I don't really disagree with you, but do have a bit of a different take.  While the weather team is the most accurate in town, they are not perfect.  If they were, this would be much less fun and they would be making so much more money.

That said, forecasting is a tough gig.  Times you hit, times you miss.  The goal is to win more than losing, which the team does very well.

The SPC does not randomly assign convective outlooks because of "its summer and moist".  If that were the case, much of the SE CONUS would be in a slight risk everyday, which isn't the case.

They issue the outlook of slight risk because there are several elements in place beyond normal conditions that would warrant awareness of the conditions.  Slight risk is just that.  Slight.  But, that isn't to say they are always right themselves.

I think many of us can reflect back to May 3, 1999 and see that in Oklahoma, it was initially a slight risk as well.  And..well that one didn't turn out so good.

I mention all this because I feel the best solution is to listen to the team having ample experience, take feedback from the SPC and NWS, look with your own eyes, and apply any personal experience/learning and form an awareness of what you think may happen.

This is where things get weird sometimes on this blog.  Everyone has a different expectation and understanding of who to listen to and how much to weigh those opinions, thus it creates opportunity for misunderstandings and for people to overreact.  

So long as people make the best judgements based on what they are comfortable with, things will go smooth...even in light of varying experiences levels and thoughts of what may happen.

Just my take.

Darn.  I was hoping for at least a nice t-storm down here in Olathe this aft/even.  My nephew from California is in town this week and I'd like him to see one these nice Midwest t-storms.  Looks like all the activity is staying well to the North.  Oh well.

Morrell - you bring up a great point.  

While it seems like the rain has been over-runnith, and the perception is strong that we should be building arks, the reality is that over the last week or so, it really has been drying out.

I found it interesting enough to blog on it [click my name].

That said, early in the month, no doubt..it rained a lot..but much of that has now been absorbed or run off.  With this NW flow, I think we will be drying out further...in general as you view the region.

Certainly, localized storms will skew results in smaller areas.

Ok so now I got thunder and I got rain and I'm not James Taylor.

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Looks like the storms are about right on and north of I-70.  If you have a rain total later please pass it along.

Jeremy

lol whirly

And "the thunder rolls" in Lenexa.

wow the new weather page is really nice...its way way way better than the old esp and I like that when you hover over the icon it pops up in the screen below nice!

Brent

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Brent,

It's been a while!  Don't be a stranger...summer weather is fun too!

Jeremy

Driving down "Thunder Road" in Lenexa (had to keep up with the song titles!) =)

Brent, I think your snow totals will be rather low this evening.

;-)

Yawn,  I dont see much south half of metro.    From too much rain to wanting some really bad.   Feast or famine seems to be the pattern.

So when is this stuff supposed to really develop and how long is it going to last?  I know there is asuff moving in right now, but is this going to be a constant thing that will come in and last all night, or will there be pockets, or will it be here and gone?  I had errands to run tonight after work, but I do not like driving in any potential dangerous situation.

Oh Thunder Road..Bruce tickets go on sale Saturday.

Oh Thunder Road..Bruce tickets go on sale Saturday.

Jeremy, based on the wunderground PWSs, the western edge of the metro is picking up a quick tenth or so...

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I like how the heavy rain split downtown and KCI:)

Jeremy

Emmys, I think you are safe to do what you need to do.  This is not a big event tonight, in my opinion.

radman - well said...feast = SW flow of pattern, famine = NW flow of pattern.

Rain totals Jeremy? I need actual rain for longer than a minute. I guess it was just movin on down the highway

No one's yard really needs rain, unless you planted sod recently. If the yard is suffering it's because of compaction or some other issue, but so far there has been plenty of rain for established lawns and shrubs. Sure, it has not been raining as much lately, but overall, the soil moisture is still well above average for this time of year. Check out the short-term drought indicator blends: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/tools/edb/sbfinal.gif

As you can see, the region is clearly still well above average in terms of moisture.

Also check out the most recent soil moisture anomaly map. As you can see, the whole area is wetter than normal.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/img/curr.w.anom.daily.gif

Gary,

Looks like storms are starting to fire in North KC, and in SE Nebraska. I wonder if they will hold together or strengthen any more.

Alex

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Alex,

Gary is on vacation for the next 8 days.

Jeremy

We just saw a lightning strike take out three transformers along Holmes north of 18th Street.

Wow!  I work downtown on the 18th floor and it's quite a lightning and thunder show.  It is very dark up north/northeast and the lightening is pretty scary.  How quick is this thing moving and will be out of here (downtown and north) by 5:00?

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Should be gone by 5pm

Jeremy

 

Just south of 435 in Olathe... it looks like we got missed completely by the rain. I'll have to go home and see if we got anything in northern Overland Park in a bit. We got a good rain shower this morning that had my hubby hustling to cover up the boat (he didn't listen to Gary's forecast last night about the likelihood of rain, and therefore didn't do it last night! He should've listened!!!!) Don't know how much rain we got out of it, though... it didn't last very long. Just enough to make it messy for the puppy when he went out a bit later...

"early in the month, no doubt..it rained a lot..but much of that has now been absorbed or run off"

LOL. Of course it has. That's what rain does. Did you expect it to puddle on the soil surface for weeks at a time?

You have to have respect for lightning. It can be dangerous but I never thought of it as scary. Beautiful, fascinating but never scary. I guess unless you're standing out in it .

La Cygne got a Whopping Trace of rain this morning.

I'm very glad about this too. No Mud!! Clean horses!!! The down side to today's weather is the high humidity- it seems to make the flies bite more. :(

Can't wait fot the lower humidity this weekend and 81 degrees. Doesn't get much more perfect than that this time of year. Hope it comes true.

0.36 inches or rain last night/morning in North Grain Valley.

Extremely happy to report 0" of rain for Paola, yahooooooo we are going to get to dry out some, finally!!!!!   Loved today, hot and humid, it was my kind of day and tomorrow and Thursday look just perfect too.  I'll be ready for some drier air this weekend for sure but for the next couple of days, I'm going to enjoy the kind of Summer in KS that I love!

--deb

Seems there is a residual ax to grind, eh Rdub?

I won't perpetuate that discussion any further.  Clearly, we will agree to disagree.

"LOL. Of course it has. That's what rain does. Did you expect it to puddle on the soil surface for weeks at a time?"

<---- Eyeballs Iowa.

;-)

That's pretty funny KcWx

Nice new weather page!

Is there any chance of severe weather around Lee's Summit tonight?

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As of now I think it stays mainly north of I-70.

Jeremy

Scott, I don't understand why you won't consider or discuss actual data like the soil moisture data. Is it because it doesn't support your notion that we are "drying out"?

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CHARITON and SALINE COUNTY

"<---- Eyeballs Iowa."

Now I understand...since we are not as wet as Iowa, we must be "dry"...:-)

Rdub,

You should have no doubt that I don't shy away from in depth scientific discussions.  So much as there is so much data to analyze, there is always two sides to an argument. [eg. global warming]

In saying "drying out", I guess by strict definition, I see your point.  I chose the wrong words.   My point was that it has trended drier based on precipitation data collected by NOAA over the last two weeks compared to the first week of June..

Perhaps this is not actual data in your book.  It is in mine.

Again - I am done with this here.  Take it up with me on my blog should you want to continue this.

Jeremy,
Had a thunderstorm here at 68th and leavenworth rd earlier this afternoon. Expirienced alot of lightning, gusty winds, and very heavy rain. Recieved about .50 not to bad for no longer than it lasted.

-Rodney

Jeremy,

Do you think a watch could be issued for the northern parts of Kansas City?

I'm watchin if that helps

...lol...

Scott, I guess it's mainly a difference of focus. You are very focused on the forecast validation, which is important, but also a narrow focus. It requires focus on a single point in space, essentially ignoring events that don't occur at the one point, and doesn't really consider the impacts of the weather. But from that point of view, it is markedly drier than it was a few weeks ago.

I'm more interested in the impact the weather has on the land and the people and plants and animals that live there. That's why I tend to emphasize things like the drought indicator blends, soil moisture, etc.

Well Jeremy as of 7:30PM here at my home in central Jefferson County KS we have received .26" since midnight.  Great lightening show early this morning.

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I think the storms will now stay to your northeast.  The front continues to lift northeast.

Jeremy

Marceline had a big storm move through with extremely heavy rain and an incredible amount of lightning. The clouds were insane as it approached. Then just a few minutes ago, a smaller but strong storm formed, and we just had heavy dime to quarter sized hail!!!

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Thanks for the report!  Any pictures?  If so...send them to jnelson@nbcactionnews.com

Jeremy


Alex

so is it done for chillicothe?

so will it be starting for western Wyandotte County?

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I think most of the activity tonight will be north of I-70.  There could be something in areas to the south...but probably more isolated.  Really thunderstorms can't be ruled out until this front clears the area.  So some t-storms are still possible tonight.

Jeremy

Jeremy we got .28 of rain between 4 & 6 in Liberty.

Thanks.

whirlygirl

I'm in Western Wyandotte...can't believe how still and sticky it is. There is virtually no air movement at all...where are you located? I'm by the Speedway and will be keeping an eye out for some lightning.

.73 by N Tullis and N 76th Street between last night and this evening.

I'm in Delaware Highlands and no kidding it's sticky. I'm under a fan so I have movement.

well at least I had a thunderstorm last night. I live south of I-70 Jeremy, Scott/one of the more professionals do I have a prayer of seeing one tonight?

Maybe you could do a thunder dance Jonathan. I might even help.

Come on Jon, shake shake shake.......shake shake shake...shake your thunder booty...everybody!