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Received a total of 0.89" of rain yesterday near Vivion and Davidson in the Northland...0.15" from the AM showers and 0.74" from heavy t-storm around 4:30 in the afternoon.

Davidson is 1 block E of Troost at Vivion, then intersects with Vivion farther N before it gets to Englewood Road.

Davidson is 1 block E of Troost at Vivion, then intersects with TROOST farther N before Troost gets to Englewood Road.

Great Blog Brett- Thanks- lets slide some of that rain down here in Joco- its getting a little dry...hopefully Friday will pan out. 

JP   **** Thanks, just saw the GFS and it dumps a lot of rain over the metro Friday afternoon.  Brett

In the last 24 hours I have had about 3/10 of an inch of rain.  Somehow, about 1/2 mile from me a girl I work with got 6/10?  Maybe she's got dirt in her rain guage making it look extra full...lol.  I haven't had any rain since last evening about 5:20 or so.  *** Stormlover, thanks for the update, would be really weird to have that kind of rainfall disparity over such a short distance, I'm going with dirt in the gauge.  Brett

Just reached 86.4 here at 130th and State Avenue in KCK, my dewpoint is coming in at 69. It is a complete STEAM BATH out there!!

Really Wyco? I'm only at 83 with a 65 DP. Ain't it feeling just so wonderful?

I wonder where all this water ends up after it dumps out of the Missouri River?  This is going to continue to be a very rough year for people along the Mississippi.

whirlygirl, what part of WYCO you in? I wouldnt think we had that much of a spread in temps. What kind of station do you have?

Rdub, if you are around..help me understand something.

You are better at the ground moisture indicies and such.  I have a question..

I found this from the CPC for the Crop Moisture Index.  It shows the area between "slightly dry and abnormally moist" for this region with areas to the SE and NE as "wet"

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

How does this differ from your link yesterday for the soil moisture content from the CPC showing anomolies above normal in wetness for the region?

Trying to learn...

Thinking out loud..anomalies are measured as deviations from the norm.  If the norm for this area in Summer is for the moisture to be on the dry side due to the seasonal temps and lower rainfalls, would this index better reflect that the moisture is wetter than normal, but not necessarly "wet"?

I get tripped up in these products with the CPC.  I am unclear at times what it really is measuring.  

Any thoughts from your observations?

I'm at 127th and State. My station is a weatherbug. Maybe I have more shade than you do LOL

whirlygirl, is it an actual weatherbug station or just using one of the sites in KCK area. I think it is Washington? But either way it could be, im over there in Delaware Ridge..and no real shade in this area.

I'm there too! No we can't meet, flirt and have wild parties.  It's a weatherbug on my computer and mine sets at Basehor, which is now 88 degrees and DP of 73. Ya need a tree WyCo.

Bulletin - Eas Activation Requested Civil Emergency Message National Weather Service Dodge City KS 905 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2008

The Kansas Department Of Health Has Issued A Mandatory Statement For The Residents Of Sublette To Curtail Water Usage And To Use Toilet Systems As Little As Possible.

Heavy Rain Tuesday Evening Caused The Sewer System To Fail And Sewer Water Was Backing Into Homes This Morning. This Advisory Will Remain In Place Until Further Notice Or Until The Sewer System Returns To Normal Operation.

Bummer!

All I can say Whirlygirl is YUCK!
The youngest child sure is going to be sorry she slept half the day away. She still has to mow the lawn. I just woke her up and it is after 12:30. I don't know how hot it is here in Lee's Summit area or what the humidity is.. I'll have to look that up.
Audra

Well I just checked with NOAA and it is 87 degrees here in Lee's Summit, with a heat index of 91. The youngest child is still goofing off, (it must be Summer) I think she wants to wait until it gets muggier and hotter before she mows.
Audra

I find myself wondering if the high water in the Missouri River will delay the construction on the new Icon bridge........

No Rain Please!! Trails are just starting to dry out. Was wondering if the rain on Friday is going to stay Metro KC and North or is it more widespread?

I was going to try and go ride at Melvern Lake on Sat. Does Topeka and points south look like lots of rain??

We just officially hit 90 in Shawnee for the first time. It's going to hit the low 90s today and, according to one forecast, upper 90s tomorrow. I think the forecast (yahoo link to weather.com) is overblown, but 93-94 isn't out of the question. Friday night, by all models, is setting up to be a very wet one. I don't know about severe weather.
Farmgirl, I don't know about Saturday. Right now, data indicates it'll be fine. Friday is looking pretty wet across all of eastern Kansas and western Missouri. The further east you are, the later the rain gets to you. I wouldn't count on any outdoor plans for Friday though.

Upper 90s would be quite bold for tomorrow.  I think 92-94 is fair, though I would suspect the offical temp would be a degree or two less.

I am LOVING what I am seeing for the forecasts next week.

Looks like KCI is still hanging on to 89 at the last check, I currently have 90.4 here in my area of KCK.

Scott, What are you LOVING about next week?

Just being a bit selfish right now, Wyco...LOL..the forecast I submitted in mid May for the contest of forecasting the week of the 4th of July is looking pretty solid.

I should be within 5 degrees each day and may have pegged the front around the end of next week.  I doubt I hit exactly the rain totals [if I do, I am buying a lottery ticket], but should be close.  [I think]

Probably doesn't prove anything - could have been just luck - but I used the surface trending and the LRC to come up with my forecast.  But - it was my take of those patterns, as others likely used them as well with differing analysis for the forecasts they submitted.

It is a LONG way out still to get excited, but in watching the last three days, the trends are supportive.

Who ever wins the thing likely could walk away feeling pretty good assuming they used a method to determine the forecast excluding dumb luck.  Forecasting 3 days out is a challenge.  Forecasting 44-51 days out is a bit different.

LOL

Great blog Brett! I didnt notice streets in Marceline closed, but a lot of gravel roads were closed coming in and out of town. They had about 4 feet of rushing water over them.

It was one crazy night, and it has been one crazy start to summer, and is not letting up just yet with the front stalling, then another cold front.

I have a 5 inch guage and when I woke up I couldnt believe it almost full.


Alex from Marceline

Scott, so is the RUC worth a darn to look at right now since they are showing precip right over K.C at 00Z? Or is it just picking up on random pop ups?

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Just look at the RUC map I posted last night.  It picked up on some heavy rain...but placed it too far southwest.  If there are t-storms tonight they should stay near the MO/IA border.

Jeremy

KCI OFFICIALLY AT 90 FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.

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Well it's about time:)

Jeremy

Mammatus, the RUC hosed up yesterday as well...initiation was about 30 miles to the east.  I think likely popups at best...

Well Scott I copied your 4th of July forecast back then and while I wouldn't mind the 82 degrees I don't want the rain that day.  I'm showing your 'guesstacast' had .23" of rain, which I could do without for fireworks.

Where can we email pics to?

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jnelson@nbcactionnews.com

Nasty,

I would have to go back and look at my analysis [which while many claimed they did little, I did actually try a bit], I think I may have been thinking the front to come through between the 3rd and 4th based on the temp drop and the smaller amount of rain from the previous day.

If I find this again, I might think that it would be clearing up that afternoon into night time as I think I have the 5th warmer and with no rain.

We will see I guess.

What do you think about Friday. I heard its suppose to storm real bad. Also is there any chance for tornados down here or will it stay north and eastward.

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Friday may be our best chance at severe storms for a while.  I think the greatest tornado threat will be over Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  But tornadoes can never be ruled out when thunderstorms turn severe.  The chance right now looks low for Friday in the KC area.  Much better chance of hail or strong winds.

Jeremy

Looking at the latest QPF from the NWS they don't seem to believe we'll even break 2" of rain over a 3 day period anywhere in our area.  We shall see.......

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

Do we have a time frame for Friday yet?  I know it's still pretty far out, but the Lenexa BBQ is this weekend and cooking and setup goes on all day Friday.  Will be out there some during the afternoon and early evening.

Thanks!

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Most likely late afternoon thru about midnight is the best chance of t-storms on Friday.  We'll have a much better idea on Thursday so make sure to stop back!

Jeremy

From Brett's blog entry, he seemed pretty confident that we could see more rain tonight in Northern Missouri.  Since the NAM and GFS are both out now, is that still the thought?

Luke

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Luke,

If there is a t-storm tonight it will occur near the IA/MO border and points north.  But Jeff and I think that chance is probably 30% or less.  The front has pushed farther north today along with the focus for storms.  I think our next good chance arrives on Friday.

Jeremy

Scott...the crop moisture index is a short-term index. It's based mainly on temperature and precip in the last week or two, unlike the Palmer drought index which is based on longer-term trends. So that's why the crop moisture index is showing less of a positive anomaly right now than the Palmer index is; it does reflect the longer-term wet conditions.

hmmm... just curious, dont want to bring up other forcasts, but one said that there will be heavy storms north and south of kc?? If so, how far south are we talking?

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Since we don't make the 'other forecasts' we can't speak for them.  Our forecast tonight keeps most if not all of the storms in NE/IA near the front.  The chance of a storm in far northern MO tonight is 20%.

Jeremy 

I'm really liking the look of the Day 3 outlook. It's about time it got exciting here again.

-The views expressed in this comment do not necessarily reflect the views of other bloggers-

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If there's excitement in the next week...it would probably occur Friday-Friday Night.

Jeremy

lol I didn't expect you to reply to that Jeremy=)