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I've never been FIRST!  Too bad I don't have anything profound to point out about the weather.  Just that up by I-70 and 7 Highway in Blue Springs I've been watching it get darker and darker.  A few rumbles of thunder, the wind's picked up, and the sky looks bad -- but it hasn't rained!  In case anyone is interested.

Looks like the metro is going to miss out...

Brett---Just wondering, could these storms leave some type of boundary which might give us a slight chance this afternoon?

Have a great day!

JP  **** JP, Looks like maybe Blue Springs is far west as they will come.  There is a boundary showing up on the visible satellite, but the warm air in place should provide a cap this afternoon and with no real forcing mechanism I don't look for any t-storms this afternoon.  Brett

Looking very ominous here by KCI also. Very dark clouds, cant tell if convection is getting started, too many low clouds. Very windy also. ***Outflow boundary sending some cooler winds your way.  Brett

Brett do you agree with this QPF issued a few hours ago for the next 3 days?  The last thing Iowa needs is more rain.  It seems the heavier rain is creeping NE of KC every new model run.

Helps if I include a link to what I'm talking about:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

Correction - in the previous blog I had mentioned storms moving SE, instead of what I meant SW.  My fingers are not trained to type about storms heading SW...

LOL.

Speaking of the last blog, I am confused from just the previous blog to this one.  In the previous blog, Jeremy had written the following about last night's set up in his blog entry...

"If a thunderstorm does occur tonight in our area it would likely reside near the Iowa border.  Rain chances in northern Missouri are only about 20 to maybe 30%"

Then...I read what Jeff has above - "Yesterday, I blogged about the chances for rain in northern Missouri with one to 3 inches of rain possible and overnight Marceline got 3 inches of rain, with others areas picking up around an inch of rain."

I guess my confusion is this - Jeff, while you nailed it with your initial blog entry, the follow up blog entry by Jeremy seemed to have changed the thoughts.  I guess I assumed the newer entry by Jeremy was based on new data and that expectations earlier in the day had changed.

Anyway...probably not a big deal, but just seemed to be mixed messages.  

Also, Jeremy had mentioned a LRC blog maybe today, Jeff - think you might put that out later after this rain passes?

;-)

Left to go walk the dog around 8:00 this morning and it was warm and quite muggy.  Got back home around 8:50 and a nice breeze was blowing, had gotten noticeably cooler and cloudy- wish it would stay like this the rest of the day!  Dea at 68th Terr.  and Oak

Yet another correction..geez, I am off my game today.  Brett gets the credit, not Jeff.  

This summer rotation has me off kilter.  I will be happy when everyone is back in their respective roles.  LOL

According to the newspaper in Linn County MO the "official" rain totals for Marceline Wednesday was 5.50".  Today the rain gauge had right at 4" in it from the rain last night and this morning.

An interesting morning thus far.  In the last hour, the winds shifted and we're now in a bit more easterly flow here at the surface...in the last hour, the temperature has dropped 5-7 degrees in many locations and even more significant, the dew points have dropped 5-7 degrees as well!  

During the 8am hour, the temperature dropped 7 degrees (78 to 71) at KMCI...and the dew point went from 70 down to 62!

This won't last today...the temp and moisture will likely spike right back up, but it is an interesting small-scale result of the thunderstorms to our east. *** Great observation, I am anticipating temps and humidity to quickly rebound this afternoon.  Brett 

I will be very frustrated and my lawn very sad if we get missed tomorrow night into Saturday morning. Especially after seeing all the rain to our east and now up in Southern Iowa and SE Nebraska. With outflow boundries, is there any small chance of this new activity that has fired up, up there making it down here this afternoon as radar currently has it building somewhat towards us?

Jeff  **** I don't think so, I think the cap will quickly become re-established this afternoon.  Brett

Pretty cool watching the outflow boundary on satellite...

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ICT&itype=vis&size=small&endDate=20080626&endTime=-1&duration=6

That is cool Scott. If it would have been around 4 or 5pm with some good instability, We probably would have seen some T-storms pop up.

Curiousity - based on the RUC, most of the day will be uncapped.  Also, being on the back side of the outflow, it seems consistent that this may be true.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+cape+nc+09

We do catch a bit of light cap around 0Z, but not much to worry about.  Also, because of this outflow, the wind direction is slightly veered from the hot humid air nearby based on current obs.

How long can the outflow hold up, and without much cap, what may fire on the outflow boundary?  Just some general questions....  As Notes noted, we seem to have been left is a slight cold pool.  

Interesting as the NWS mentions this prior to the outflow developing in this morning's FD

"FOR TODAY...BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT. ALREADY SAW 90+ DEGREE
TEMPS YESTERDAY...AND CAN NOT SEE ANY REASON WE WONT BE A LITTLE
WARMER TODAY. MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS SEEM TO BE KEYING ON SOME KIND OF
COLD POOL...BUT GIVEN THE POOLS PLACEMENT IN EASTERN MISSOURI I HAVE
OPTED TO GO ALONG WITH MAV NUMBERS INSTEAD WHICH PUTS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE 90S.
"

While the choice was to go with the greater area dynamics, could this cold pool from the outflow in KC hold on enough to reduce the maxes?

I am not sold on the models right now regarding temps today.  I think while this outflow may not be strong enough to hold off the large scale movement, it may hold it off enough in this area to minimize the time of peak heating mixing with the hotter airmass.

Perhaps the same as yesterday or a degree or two cooler?

Whatcha think?

Ok, earlier we were not in anything for severe weather and now the SPC has moved the slight risk all the way down south of here.....please tell me there is no thrusday curse again.....wanna go to worlds of fun  :(

Well, the SPC moved the slight risk area quite a bit further to the south. The southern extent is well south of K.C. I guess we will see what those outflow boundaries do later this afternoon.

Well...after reading the latest convective, seems the outflow boundary may indeed be in play.

I have no idea why the HWO from the SPC today.

Scratch that..the PWO.  

This is not my day.

Live at 147th & Antioch and the grass is turning brown and that's with nearly 7" of rain this month. It's not how much you get but when you get it.

kcwx, I think that's left over from this morning.  There was a moderate risk earlier today over Iowa, and it's gone now.  The time on that is from 7:30 am this morning.
:o)

Scott, et. al.,

I have a little time this afternoon so I figured I better get on the forecast scoring setup while I can...

Question on scoring:

Since people were inconsistent with the use of PoPs, should we not include it in the overall verification?

Also, how do we balance temperature scores and precip scores? Traditionally in forecasting competitions, the overall score is determined by 50% temps, 50% precip, but if we toss out PoP, we'll have two temp scores (High and Low) and only one Precip value (amt) to utilize...not sure how to balance that.

Also, temp errors will be in degrees (whole numbers) while precip errors are going to be very small values (tenths, hundredths...) thus just adding error points up would make precip scores a very, very small fraction of the overall score...perhaps too small?

Should we multiply precip error by 10 and then just add all error points?

Such that:
Forecast of 92, actual of 88 would earn 4 temp error points
Forecast low of 68, actual of 70 would earn 2 temp error points
Forecast of 0.4" of rain, actual is 0.0" (difference = 0.4 x 10 = 4) would earn 4 precip error points
Total error for the day: 10 pts.

Obviously, all error points are in absolute values (doesn't matter if you're over or under, just how far off you are).

Point totals would just be added day-to-day to make a cumulative point total...that would be the simplest way.

If this all sounds good, I'll add the equations to my scoring setup, enter the forecasts that were given back in May, and ready it for the actuals.

Further discussion here:
http://www.notesinthemargin.com/phpBB3/viewforum.php?f=5

Notes - thanks for the question..left my thoughts on the board.

Hmmm...anyone driving or steering the blog today?

Notes, how do you vaidate PoP anyway? I mean, if someone calls for a 40% chance of rain, but it doesn't rain, how does that go? 0.4 error points?

Anyway, I am thinking my forecast looks good. If I recall I was forecasting a cool start to the week which is on track for now. I need NIM to approve my registration first so I can see it...

Looks like eastern Kansas is getting quite unstable with 4000Mu Cape and no Cin. Anything gonna pop up there? I wonder if things may fire along that outflow boundary.

I found my forecast on an archived blog...from Monday May 12...

"Sun June 29  Cool, nice. High 82 Low 61"

Looking pretty solid.....

Topeka HWO
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR. HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN COULD ALSO
OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

Rdub, I was noting that myself yesterday....your forecast starts perhaps the best.

How did you come up with it?  Blind luck, seasonal norms? LRC? Voodoo? RFM [Rdub Forecasting Model]?

Well Hello everyone, Scott, Becky, Notes, Laura Congrats on being first, It is indeed a wonderful day as we are about to be placed in a moderate risk tomorrow(I hope) and I get to go to the doctor and find out what my headache is and why my blood pressure is so high and why I'm such a fat,.. never mind. I'm listening to early 90s weather channel music by the way. I LOVE THAT MUSIC. I'm not entirely concerned about the slight risk today because we've been under a slight risk like the past 3 days and I haven't hardly seen a drop of rain.  I'm waiting for the show tomorrow.

_The views expressed in this comment do not necessarily reflect the views of other bloggers_

RDub - looking solid indeed.

Yes - regarding PoP forecasting, the reason it is a nice element to add is that it rewards for basically calling for rain or not, since that is frequently an important aspect of a forecast (often as important as amount).  It frequently forces forecasters to make a call instead of strattlign the fence.  Since in reality, it will either be 0% (no rain) or 100% (it rained) at any one location, PoP forecasting rewards those who make a statement.  By rolling a 50%, you gurantee yourself 5 (or 0.5) error points...but by rolling a 0 or 10, you stand a much higher chance of earning fewer error points (pending, of course, you're on the right end!).  

I wrote up more thoughts about scoring...if you'd like to chime in over there, feel free.

oh I'm working on my own weather voodoo right now..but scott let me tell you I'm just not Earthy enough cuz it's not working.

I have counted no less than three outflow boundaries evident on satellite from the storms in central MO that are affecting our area.

Quite amazing to see.  In addition, the convection in Iowa is beginning to expand and cloud cover is beginning to spill over into the region. [following the NW flow and seeking out that so delicious CAPE]

I don't see how we will make mid 90s today, and may not remain dry either. *************** Days like today can drive a Meteorologist nuts with the outflow boundaries, fronts, etc. It's fun...but a challenge. Jeremy

Notes,

How about selecting a couple of "winners" in the forecast challenge and putting them up for a vote on Gary's weather page?  It may be just a laymans opinion but it may increase bragging rights.  Personally I hope that Turd's is accurate.  I'd like to get out and enjoy a cool and dry weekend.

no... it will not rain today...you just watch

It's called "a poor weather loser's curse" in essence, it never rains when I want it to. and I want it to storm so therefore it will not rain today.

Bleh.  I hope we don't get any of those storms.  I'm enjoying the dry days!

Noticing some cumulus development southwest of us along one of those boundaries. Im curious to see how far southwest those storms in NW missouri backbuild into Kansas.

Whats Up with the SPC. Can't get on their site. Maybe my work blocked me cause this is what I do all day instead of work...LOL

Looks like my predicted high of 93 degrees won't be close. As of 1:15PM, only 83 degrees in Shawnee (in the shade) with a refreshing southerly breeze and dewpoints about 5-7 degrees less than yesterday. It feels somewhat comfortable. The temperature doesn't tend to rise that much between 1-6PM, so I'd say 87-88 should do it for today. Maybe 90 if conditions remain sunny.
Jeremy (or Brett), if or when one of you get a chance, could you tell me your take on the severe threat tomorrow? I've seen diametrically, so to speak, different information from different sources. All I know is that we can expect a wet Friday afternoon and night.

*******************

We'll look into tomorrow's threat after the new stuff comes out in the next couple of hours.  To be honest though a lot will hinge on where meso boudaries like outflows set up tomorrow.  We are watching the storms over northern MO and trying to determine how far south they will get.  First things first:)

Jeremy

the clouds are thickening up just to my north.  i bet the temps arent going to get any higher here today...the clouds are moving south rather quickly.

i wouldnt mind some more rain personally, its been drier on the KS side than whats being reported...atleast where i am located.  extreme N Ks by the NE border has been getting good rain atleast....

*******************

What's being reported?  Please explain that PVT...just wondering if that was something the weather team said. 

Yeah...your temps will probably stay in the 80s today.  82 in Weston on our weather station there.  KC might see 88-90 if the sun stays out.

Jeremy

So...in looking at the surface obs, a couple of things...

There is some boundary in western KS...seperating temps of upper 80s and upper 90s.  

Also, there is the dying outflow from this morning dissecting I-35 with both wind direction and temps...dew points are not that much different.

The state of Missouri largely looks like a cold pool.  Not good if the Iowa storms are heading into that area regarding potential rainfall.

It seems the blob in Iowa is definitely heading/building SE as seen in IR imagery.  

To steal from Bill in Lawrence in a reference, it seems we in the metro are "caught in the middle" [Steeler Wheel].

Amen to your comment above, Jeremy...when these things are evident in the morning, do you have the opportunity to change the forecast for the day - or do you just stick with it and grin and bear it?

So, lemmie guess, since it's THURSDAY, the stinking rain and storms are going to come here?  I see that we are in a slight risk, I didn't not get to see the forcast at 11 I am at work.  Can someone fill me in on what is going on?  Thanks!
Becky

Well I went out at lunch in Blue Springs -- my car said it was only 81 - it was sunny, but didn't seem to be as sticky as it has been.  So I think that means it won't rain here?  Maybe at home!  I am enjoying not having to clean 12 paws after every trip out though!  Laura.  Nice to see you again Jonathan - hope your doctor's appointment goes okay.  I'll be praying!

Seems like the storms are trying to get their act together near St. Joseph and areas to the north and west of there.  Any possibility that those will head south into the KC Metro area?
-Chad

**************

There's a chance...check out the new blog.

Jeremy

It was part lucky guess...I figured there would be at least one day in the period that was nice and cool. So I chose the first day for that randomly.