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st joseph at 2.50 rain lighting, thunder and its cooled off to 73 degrees looks like more to come.

So in the next 2 hours will we know if it is going to rain here in the northland?

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The rain will be close.  The western/southwestern extent of the storms are approaching Platte County.  Some storms are possible yet today.

Jeremy

Yep typical MCS hi jinks, Started out mowing the lawn on a bright warm and humid summer day, then as I finished up dark clouds overspread the area, the winds switched out of the north and we got some light rain and thunder, and now it is cool, cloudy and breezy.  

It really seems like the rain the last week or so has really had a tough time getting on the Kansas side of the metro. I have even started to notice some cracks in the ground at 130th and State Ave in WYCO. I think someone from Leavenworth said the same thing today as well. Hopefully we can get those storms up in far NE Kansas to come down here on the KS side of the metro. Although, looking at the latest warning that was just out on that cell, it appears it is moving more East then anything.

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Getting rain west of KC has been a little tough recently.  I think everyone has a pretty good chance on Friday.  Although like about any chance...someone will likely get missed.

Jeremy

I think it's not going to rain...I want it to rain so bad that it's not going to. I would put a ben franklin down that it's not going to rain in Jackson county today. I won't say that for tonight though.

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There's a lot of day left.

Jeremy

Hi Jeremy- are you still thinking 1-2 " for I-70 and south for Friday afternoon/evening?

I'll even put another ben franklin down that it doesn't rain in Johnson County KS.

yeah just as I wrote that I looked at visible. there's an outflow boundary surging towards us from the north. if we get behind it and nothing happens. I win. lol

by the way is there something brewing in the gulf of mexico?

NO!  It just can't rain tomorrow south!  I'm off ALL DAY!  Grrr.  Hey Jonathan - why don't you really WISH for it to rain at myhouse tomorrow - then for sure it won't! Laura

Are these storms up north making it our way?  If so, are they expected to be severe?
Thanks.

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So far the only severe storm in the last hour was in Brown County, KS.  There is a slight risk of severe weather this evening.  Right now all the activity in our area is north of I-70.

Jeremy

Laura. Tomorrow is being controlled by a greater power than me. but today is strictly me wanting it to storm. so therefore it wont.

Here we ago again in Marceline!

Alex

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Keep us updated on your rain totals.

Jeremy

Well thanks, that's really helpful!  DUMMY!  LOL

I hate to ask a question like this in the blog, but what is the chance of rain in Grandview Friday evening at 9:00 pm.  My daughter is in an outdoor play, so I am hoping for no rain.  I am not holding anyone to it, just a general chance, maybe a low, medium, high.  I think Brett metioned earlier today that data was leaning towards a more scattered event, is this still holding true?  Thanks in advance.  

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Right now we have an 80% chance of rain on Friday.  Maybe not everyone gets rain...but the chance looks pretty good.

Jeremy

MD now up for areas from the Metro back to the North and West-Svr Watch Possible

It looks to me those storms in Northern Kansas are rapidly intensifying, but not moving very far.  Probably some torrential rainfall up there too.

Jeremy - the IR showed the boundaries better.  Might have also gone with a surface obs map.

Well..you win some you lose some, but most importantly it is how you adjust and accept.

Kudos today for doing this well.  The inital forecast likely will not come to fruition, but you explained what happened and rolled with the changes.  I can respect that.

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I'm about to add the surface map.  We had too much going on between 2:30-4:30...I was lucky to sneak the quick blog in earlier:)

Jeremy

WannaBe,

Here is one model view [RUC] of 7PM tomorrow and one for 10PM.  If you can figure out if it will be in Grandview, let me know.

Too close to call.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+sa4_precip+nc+30
http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+sa4_precip+nc+36

If I were to guess, I would say it would be scattered starting off near 7PM with rain increasing in chances closer to the night time.

Looks like an outflow is entering the metro from the showers and storms that are active to the East. Looking at NWS radar.

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The outflow moved thru KCI just before 4 pm

Jeremy

Beautiful day for watching outflows.  Very easy to see.  

it is 76 degrees at KMCI.

Thats why the 76 at KCI- and 85 here in Lenexa- just hasn't got here yet

Thanks Jeremy.

Looking at the hodograph out of TOP, it looks like a Picasso painting!  What a mess.

Looking at all levels, winds are all over the place in direction and speed.  The only consistent level is a bit between the 850-700.

The LLJ looks pointed right at the front edge of the developing convection....

Has anyone seen the widespread severe weather event in Ohio? There's no watch out for that, but there is for us, which seems strange, especially considering that we are only supposed to have isolated storms. I don't think wind is the problem, I think it''s isolated hail, at least that's what I think I read on the SPC website earlier in the day!

A SVR Tstorm watch was just issued for a huge chunk of Northeast KS.  The SPC does think the action will drop south...

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)

Here is the link to the SPC.  Click on watches for the latest on the new SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH for the metro area until 1AM.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

In Ohio, there is a huge cluster of thunderstorms impacting the entire northeastern portion of the state, including Cleveland. All of this activity is marginal severe.
The storms northwest of us are marginal hail producers. I think the biggest problem is heavy rain, although as they interact with this humid airmass, they could intensify a little bit. They may tend to track west of us.
My prayers go out to families impacted by the flooding in northern Missouri. This could end up being almost as bad as Anderson County last year.

SVR Tstorm watch

Thank you for your responses....looks like I will have to keep my fingers crossed and hope the cold front slows down a little.

We picked up .93" in Emma, Missouri today, before the current band came through. If it quits in time, I'll post an update before the 6:00 news.

Walt Snyder

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Thanks for the total!  Keep us posted over the next day.

Jeremy

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