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Ok I did not hear Jeremy mention if us on the missouri side will get any of these storms.  The kids want to go to worlds of fun tonight....can anyone tell me if it would be ok to go or should we plan another day

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Likely dry arond the metro for the next 2-3 hours...at least.

Jeremy

Thanks Jeremy.  One last question..I promise...after that 2-3 hours do we need to watch for storms?

bewild79,

I would plan for another day because there is a chance that these storms may move into the KC metro but even if they don't hit that area directly, lightning can strike 10 miles outside of a thunderstorm and the last thing you want is to be on top of the Mamba and have lightning strike.  The chance of rain for the WOF area is only about 40% for the next few hours but goes up to about 60% by around dark.  They might be ok, but I wouldn't take the chance.

Have a great day!

Jacob

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Jacob,

I really think KC is fine for 2-3 hours or maybe more. 

Jeremy

Is it very likely that the watch will be extended into Missouri at some point later in the evening?  

Hey radar is indicating hail greater than 4" out near Blue Rapids and they have confirmed hail 1.75" in Republic County.  Not a bad "squall line for a slight risk".

Thanks for the input Jeremy!  =)

We caught just the tail end of that outflow boundary that passed north and east of KC. Even there, the winds were about 40 mph and we picked up .26" in less than a half hour. That gives Emma 1.23" today. BTW, if I go to Independence this evening for a movie, will we be safe from hail?

Walt Snyder

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Any severe weather should be isolated.  Right now the metro looks good thru mid evening.

Jeremy

Here is the outlook from the SPC on tomorrows severe weather risk.

Forecast Discussion

  SPC AC 261740
 
  DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1240 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008
 
  VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
  MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY...MID-MO VALLEY...SRN AND CNTRL
  PLAINS...SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
 
  CORRECTED TO FLIP ARROW ON GRAPHIC
 
  ...UPPER MIDWEST/MID-MO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
  AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN
  TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE NRN AND
  CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE
  NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND/OR AN MCS
  APPEAR LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF
  THE FRONT IN MN...IA OR ERN NEB. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE SHUNTED
  QUICKLY EWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. IN ITS
  WAKE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON
  ALONG AN AXIS FROM WI SWWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO NW MO AND ECNTRL KS.
  THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THIS AXIS AS THE CAPPING
  INVERSION DIMINISHES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
  AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
  UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND THE STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL
  QUICKLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL
  CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OR A LINEAR MCS POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING.
 
  CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE EXIT REGION OF A 55 TO 70 KT
  MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY AND THIS
  WILL INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
  SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL REACH THE 45 TO 55 KT
  RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
  WITH LARGE HAIL ALONG MOST OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE GREATEST
  TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY OVER WI...ERN IA AND NRN IL WHERE
  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY A 40 TO 50 KT
  LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE FROM THE
  SOUTH SOUTHWEST IN MOST AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF
  FLOW AT 850 MB FROM THE SAME DIRECTION. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG
  FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO MULTICELL
  LINEAR WITH AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
  EARLY EVENING. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP
  ACROSS LOWER MI WHERE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS APPEAR STRONG
  ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. IF A LINEAR MCS ORGANIZES AND
  PERSISTS SEWD INTO CNTRL IL...CNTRL MO...SE KS AND NRN OK THROUGH
  LATE EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY WHERE
  MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS.
 
  ....SRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
  NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS AN
  UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO THE
  UPPER-MIDWEST AND MID-MO VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
  ACROSS ERN CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND MAY STALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
  CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH A
  CLUSTER OF STORMS POSSIBLY ORGANIZING BY EARLY EVENING. FORECAST
  SOUNDINGS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION SHOW LARGE
  TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGESTING THE STORMS WILL BE HIGH-BASED.
  HOWEVER...ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY EXIST FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS
  AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AIDED
  BY A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD INTO SW KS.
  WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
  STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING.
 
Here is the link so you can look at the maps..

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Jacob

Outflow just made it through Lenexa-(87th and Lackman) definately cooler now- with a light East wind.

Jeremy...at 5:56 you said..."a severe thunderstorm warning is in effect until 1am"...thats a long WARNING!!!  LOL!  =)  =)

Jacob

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Stop...it's been a long stretch of filling in and it's starting to catch up to me:)

Jeremy

Jeremy...you know I'm kidding!  =)

You are doing a great job filling in!  Hang in there!

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Jeff Penner also pointed it out...about 2 seconds after I was off the air.

Jeremy

ok well if we have a few hours of dry then I guess its off to WOF eveyone have a good evening!

rofl Jacob.. I heard that too.. and thought the same thing.. My goodness must be one heck of a storm................  Sorry Jeremy just couldn't resist.

I am hoping we do get something in KCK to get rid of this nasty stickiness.  Although it IS better than it was yesterday.

5kckmartins...its part of our job to give our Meteorologists a hard time right!?!  And you're right, it is much better than it was yesterday!

Here in Lee's Summit the outflow boundary went through and it is very nice outside now. Will it stay this cool or is it going to warm back up?

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As the low level jet kicks in tonight the dew points may climb again.  Really depends when/if the storms reach our immediate area.

Jeremy

Good job Jeremy...you said WATCH!  LOL.

The convection in N Ks is not looking like its going to track towards the metro- looks like we might have to wait until tomorrow for our moisture- or at least the better chance as you were saying during the 5 oclock show.

Have a great night all- JP

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Once the LLJ kicks in tonight the complex trying to develop in Kansas should expand.  Does it reach KC is the big question.  That's why we are dry for probably another 2-3 hours or so.

Jeremy

Sorry Jeremy should have said for the rest of the night. Thank you for the infomation tho. Hava a great rest of the night.

Anybody whats your dewpoint there now?  Here in central Jefferson County we are sitting at 69.2, down from 74.2 at 3PM and we have a temp of 80 with winds at 10MPH out of the ESE.  Squall line isn't dying down much, although it is slowing down and an outflow is forming up here just to our NW.

It feels wonderful outside here in Lee's Summit!

davidmcg, there are a lot of PWS sites on Wunderground that can help with giving local readings....for ease, I do have it displayed on my page.

Jeremy,

Is there any chance that we might not get as warm as you think tomorrow?

Got those listings kcwxguy, I was just wondering about those with bacyard instruments that don't link to the internet.  The humidity here is still awful high.  I sure wish these storms would get here and makes things more comfortable.  I have no doubt they will get here, maybe not KC but definitely us.  After all, its Thursday so it has to rain.

Well Jeremy,

The storms to our northwest look pretty healthy....bet the sun and humidity is feeding the growth on them....unless I am wrong, please correct me!  By the way, after sunset, will the strength of these storms stay the same, grow in intensity, or start to weaken when they arrive the metro area?

Andrew

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Andrew,

The LLJ should help to keep the storms going.  Slight risk of severe weather continues.

Jeremy

Storm cell now in Holton KS with half inch hail.  Maybe KC will get a piece of it.

davidmcg - those would be a pretty good representation of the area...

We drove to Louisville, KY this morning from the Blue Springs area on the I 70. We hit a nice little cell just E of Odessa and had rain for the next 155 miles!! Our wipers were on high for about half an hour it was raining that hard. The thunder was so loud that we could hear it over the rain and the radio. You could hardly hear yourself think! If this is the weather that was N of KC last night, I feel sorry for you guys!
Audra

Sorry kcwxguy those sites on wunderground are not exactly accurate at all, in fact many of them are offline most of the time.  Plus nw of Ozawkie there just isn't any stations.  Take the McLouth KS site.  It is 2 miles se of me but the readings there and here at my house are as different as night and day.  For example right now that site is showing 79.5 for a temp and here at my house we have 82.1, not much but a difference.  We also always have a totally different rain measurement from them.  Our elevation is relatively the same, we are just 5 feet higher than they are.  The thing is the placement of instruments.  Ours are 100' from the house, we have no trees and are at the top of a hill..  Their instruments are all within 50', they have trees and have several hills.

davidmcg,

No doubt that there will be differences.  In fact, the points you bring up are valid.  Not everyone knows where to place or how to operate a personal weather station.

However, consider the total number of readings in a general area, and that gives you much better information than if you were to rely on general obs done once an hour.

It is using this information, regular obs, CoCoRaHS and other networks for observations that give you the best feel.  I just suggested this as one more piece of data to help in observations.

There will be some stations that are very accurate and many others that are somewhere in between.

;-)

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Scott,

Here comes an LRC blog...in 3...2...1...

Jeremy

Does it look like areas to the southeast of KC might get any rain tonight - La Cygne/Drexel area? Don't know if I should bring the horses in or not.

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Possible...but probably not until after midnight.  Pinning down the exact track of these complexes with all the meso boudaries around is very difficult.

Jeremy

By golly kcwxguy you hit it right on the nose.  Some don't know how or where to place theirs.  Heck, mine may not be right, but they are away from obstructions and heat/shade sources.  The only way I can check anything is with a mercury thermometer and a handheld wind gauge.  By the time the storms get tome I won't be able to get a single good picture.  We have been hearing thuinder for 90 minutes but all we have are gray, now growing dark  due to the setting sun.  Anyhow, the storms are losing their punch but not gone by any means.

Is Liberty looking to get hit, weather team?
Keep up the great work!

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Not anytime soon.  Some storms are possible overnight.  The storms to our west are dropping almost due south right now.  It would take development to our north to get some storms in here.

Jeremy