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I guess the watch dropped? My weatherbug says nothing for my area.

******************

With the storms dropping south the eastern edge was cancelled early.  More storms are developing in Nebraska and western Kansas.  A vort max is headed our way by early Friday.  Any storms for KC now look to be after midnight.

Jeremy

Jeremy I told you it was not going to rain today! =D

*******************

You were correct!

Jeremy

Jeff,very interesting blog I really enjoyed the analysis this definitely proves the LRC  for those non-believers out there I hope you are believing now this is amazing. Also my condolecenses go out for the farmers and victims of the floods hopefully it will dry out some what for those people.

For Friday when do you think western WyCo would get home with any storms?

That's get hit with any storms, thanks.

****************

Could be a round in the morning and late afternoon/evening.  I think one of the complexes forming in Nebraska or western KS heads our way overnight.  Probably nothing until after 3am.  This isn't a cut and dry forecast:)

Jeremy

Wow, that's one strong looking bow echo heading just west of Emporia.    

So, any guesses on the rain for the Royals tomorrow night?  Will the game get in or is this a 'stay at home & watch a movie' night instead?

Wonderful light show coming out of these storms in Shawnee, Waubunsee and Osage County.  Too bad all of ya in KC can't see this.

OK fellas- I just had to check in one more time-
Great Blog Jeff- as you say- the LRC is alive and well- it will be interesting to see how everything comes together or falls apart in the next 60-90 days and then the exciting question- what kind of pattern will set up for the next LRC.

I would really be interested in hearing one of your presentations. I have been sharing info on the LRC with some of my friends in Western KS who are in the crop insurance business- the LRC is a great tool for them as well as their customers.

Jeremy- EXCELLENT job, you are a true pro- I know you are probably beat--hang in their a few more days... from what I am seeing-in my amatuer eyes- we will get some nice rain tonight--maybe a good inch...or more, if everything comes together from the West and North

See you at 10

JP

Stormspotter activation Nortonville Fire Dept -- Jefferson County KS

Its crazy the cell that just popped up in Atchison is only showing heavy rain with tops around 6000.  Winds are barely hitting 40.  Sounds paranoish to me.

False alarm on NWS part for Nortonville Fire.  They had the radar set for precip total mode and it showed a weird anomoly for south Atchison County.  That prompted them to call Jefferson County EOC and request spotters.  So much for advanced algorithims again.

******************

We noticed those and immediately disregarded those as false echoes.  They just didn't fit with the other echoes.  Also, level II out of KC was not showing those.

Jeremy

I brought the horses in so now it will not rain in La Cygne. :) I really don't want any rain. If it stays dry we will be able to get some hay up in cooler weather! WooHoo!!

Air sure is thick. Wish I had some of that cool outflow boundary here.

When did they take Wyandotte and Johnson County out of the watch?

****************

Probably 2-3 hours ago I think.

Jeremy

Oh boy.  Where do I start?  First, for those that don’t know…I am a very strong supporter of the LRC.  I am also a very strong critic of how it is communicated.

Alas, normally I save the onslaught for Gary when he does this, so I will remain consistent and not go too hard in this thought with Jeff.

In having the heads up last night a LRC blog was coming, I did my homework.  I nearly commented last night what maps would be used, but thought that a bit presumptuous.  

However, these maps above are what I was thinking would be used.  I am not a big fan of how this comparison was made.  Let me play devil’s advocate.

Showing a graphic zoomed to a ULL without a broader view of the other features from a large scale is deceptive.  I could pick 20 maps this year with a ULL in the general area as shown above.  This does not prove a pattern.  

Additionally, the second map is a progged map 42 hrs out form a previous blog.  It likely looked a bit different than the objectively constructed map of that day.

I will spare the specific analysis of the two dates given above and how it seems invalid to move days from 47-54 days to show the pattern.  

My only thought is that is too much swing in the pattern.

I would have a bit of caution trying to compare or expect similar results at the surface.  As you can see on the maps above, the ULL is about 700 miles further north this time.  How on earth would you know how the lower level moisture would respond if even available?

Granted, large scale events in the pattern do have similar patterns at the surface, but that is really – in my mind – clear during the very amplified stages of wintertime.  During convective seasons, I fully expect things to be quite different, both in coverage, intensity and in this case – location.  I have learned this the hard way myself and have surface data to help establish this observation.

So, this brings the larger question – what value does this bring in the futures market?  If the location, intensity and coverage are in doubt, the only value it can bring is – well…its gonna happen somewhere north of where it did before in about 50 days. [reversed in Fall]

That in of itself is very powerful..but beyond that, can people get much more out of it?  

Jeff – I know you believe strongly in the LRC, as I do as well.  I am still learning the application of it as it relates to the surface.  As you know, I have spent a great deal of time researching this relationship.  I have not yet drawn quantitative ties yet.  I have a strong feeling and gut intuition it is there..but nothing with proof..

Even Gary has shown some errors with his 45 day forecasts using the LRC.  We had a phantom blizzard and a few other misses.  But..had some hits too!  Seems risky to me in this still experimental mode to be using it in the future market.  Just my opinion.

Lastly – If this ULL looked familiar..can you give a few other dates in the cycle where it matches?

I know the LRC is best understood and viewed in chunks…or perhaps loops of a week at a time.  I wish we had a way to show it that way as it would look much clearer.

Any ideas?

********************

kcwxguy,

I understand what you are saying, but as I said you have to know how to use the LRC.  This is the late June version of what happened in early May.  The upper low will be weaker & further north now, due to the time of year.  But, this storm is evolving & acting just as the one did on the 5/10.  The surface features are weaker now, due to a weaker storm, also due to the time of year.  May 11-14 were quiet with active weather after that.  A similar sequence is about to follow.

How can it help with commodities?  Well, back in March some meteorologists were saying a Midwest drought was coming due to La Nina.  I told the folks at the Board of Trade that there is a better chance of a flood than a drought back in March & it would be a wet spring.  This would mean planting delays & other problems which did come true.  Now, I am going for more flooding in July.  This is a bullish forecast & will be interesting to see how things evolve.  Summer could take over, weaken the pattern & not be as active, but I doubt it.

Jeff

Jeremy,
That guy does need to dive into some puddles around here, but yet I'm still waiting for my puddles!

*****************

Those should arrive tonight...I hope:)

Jeremy

Ok, this is NOT good news!! I have a three day camping trip July 6-9th down by Table Rock and the wet pattern is coming back!! Hopefully if it does rain it won't be heavy-I don't feel like spending the trip in a tent!!

************************************************

Braysmama,

Maybe the T-Storms will be north of Table Rock Lake.

Jeff

what really makes the weather repeat? Do you really think it has a mind of its own like that? It is just sometimes hard for me to imagine the weather establishing itself, and repeating. I mean what keeps the weather in a pattern like that?

********************************

Twister,

It amazes us everyday that things repeat.  It is hard to say why they repeat.

Jeff

Jeff, was there a hottest day of the summer contest this year?  I don't recall seeing one.  Thanks!

********************************

Matt,

With everything going on I think we we not have one this year.  Start thinking about the snowflake contest!

Jeff

twister. it's like this. EVERYTHING IN LIFE IS A CYCLE. The sun has a solar cycle. one cylce is every 11 years one is every 200. it can be simplified to as insignifcant as you drive your car. your car runs out of gas. you fill your car up again. or. you drink your water. your glass is empty. you fill it up again. To Get more complicated again, our earth has a cycle flipping it's polarity, RIGHT NOW it is in the process of becoming magnetic south. that won't completely happen for another 100s to thousands of years. but our magnetic field around our planet right now is weak because of the transition. if you truly think about it. EVERYTHING in life is a cycle.

light show starting here in Lawrence!!

-Brian *************** Keep us posted! Jeremy

how about that giant bow echo heading towards us from north central ks and south central NE? its holding together well, and moving fast! i wonder what it will do when it interacts more with our local conditions.  it looks like it could run straight through...a stormy night looming, perhaps...?

What are the chances of a Royals game actually happening tomorrow night? since the models you have shown today on powercast all are set up at 7:00PM and that is gametime? **************** I think the game will happen. There may be a delay. The storms on Friday afternoon/evening should move at a decent speed. The cold front will be dropping southeast. Where tonight there are several boundaries hanging around the region with a very weak flow aloft. That is also why there isn't much severe weather close to home. Jeremy

I can only hope  Murphy. like I said before...Too long since I've heard thunder.

okay everybody left...That stinks..

im getting lightning and thunder, despite that the radar is pretty weak in my location.  that tells me that its going to be a stormy night, at some point... *********** PVT...good to hear from you! Keep us updated with a rain total sometime on Friday. I think we get more storms in the area after 3am. Initially you'll likely see light/moderate rain with an embedded t-storm or two. Jeremy

Something tells me we're not going to get an MCS tonight. Radar is not looking good. The rain in Nebraska is falling apart, and the storms in Kansas are beginning to dive south....

Okay, this is weird. Looking at the radar out of Omaha, the band of storms that was moving east so fast suddenly stopped, weakened, and the started retreating back to the west. And the whole area of rain looks like it is rotating. What is going on here?

Wow this complex of storms is really acting strange. It looks as though it is having a tough time coming into extreme eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Maybe I will luck out and get .2 tonight in western WYCO.

Looks like the snowstorms we missed in the winter.   Just rotating all around but cant break through our force field.    I expect more action today and tonight

Raining pretty steady here in Paola, loud thunder boomers occasionally.  No walk this morning, maybe later on but from the looks of the radar, this could keep up for hours...YUK!  I loved the past few days, true KS summer....*sigh* I guess it was fun while it lasted....back to the dismal swamp.  If the rain doesn't clear out by daybreak I'll gear up and go walk with Windy in the rain, starting to feel like last July, and that is a very, very scary feeling for these parts south of the city.  Have a good, albeit gloomy day, everyone!

is there a dome to prevent rain around kci and the northland.... Im really getting frustrated with this rain missing us everytime. **************** I'll take the .3" that fell in Olathe! The rain seems to be everywhere except KC! Jeremy

Whew! I almost thought my rain gauge might over flow this morning. We got a whopping .3 here in my part of KCK. Hopefully a better chance for rain tonight.

3/8" in Gardner

Good morning all!  Is it time for a new blog yet?  :)  It's what keeps me not so bored at work.  I always have the blog open reading it and the comments and then hiding it if the boss walks by!  :)

I'm not a trained weather spotter but I have to tell you what I saw yesterday (Thursday).
Sometime between 8:15and 8:30 on Thursday morning, I was driving through Pleasant Hill just as those storms were passing East and southeast of us. It was just sprinkling in Pleasant Hill.
There is an excellent view of the east when you are on the north end of town.  I saw a low wall cloud moving south with the heavy rain making it to the ground. Trailing that south moving rain cloud was a cloud that definitely had a cone shape to it with some definite rotation of whisps of clouds around it.  I watched it for several minutes to make sure I understood what I was seeing.  The wisps of clouds were definitely circling the larger cone as it followed the wall cloud.
It fell apart shortly thereafter.
Was that what I think it was?
Can we now look at radar to see if there was any vortex shown?

Near 128th & Mur-Len, Olathe, Ks ...Overnight rain total...
0.30"

Jeff – thanks for the response.

Can we further expand some of your thoughts in the reply?  

To best understand and see the LRC, I think we are in agreement that it isn’t just one snapshot of a map to that of another.  I think as you mention, it is the sequence of events that is more telling.  

Large scale events in a sequence of motion and subsequent events happening in a pattern.

This is the LRC..and this has never really been discussed or shown on this blog really in this manner.  This is how I understand it and have been able to use it.  It is always map comparisons that are presented and that is the single point that draws my ire for how it is communicated.

I know this thing works.  I have studied it, mapped it, and trended it at both upper levels and the surface.  I have spent too many hours/months/years doing this.  Knowing you and Gary see it in the broader sense, but communicate it in such a finite method is frustrating as over time, without any additional representation of the LRC, many will grow tired, frustrated, or otherwise more critical of the theory – not because of the theory itself, but its communication.

Ok…so..that out of the way, lets get to the specific pattern sequence as you brought it up.  You indicated that after this front – we should expect about 4 days of quiet.  This thought is in reference to May 11-14.

Ok.  In looking at the CF6 data, we were dry from May 12-20th.  This brings up an interesting situation.  If we were to expect this to come again, it comes with some forecasting/cycle problems.

In May, as we were working through the streak of dry weather, Gary had indicated that this part of the pattern was similar to that streak in November we had as well, but was not clear as to why it hadn’t repeated until that time.  

There were numerous cycles from November to May where it didn’t happen, and it happens in May.  Why would we expect it to happen in July when the jet is nearly its weakest?

Ok..so at the end of that May stretch, we did enter a very active period.  The last week of May and the first week of June was VERY wet as we know.  Just prior to that happening, we had our first view of the Omega.  This – as you know – was formed from the deep western trough, huge ridge [omega] in the Midwest, and the large trough on the east coast.

If this were to happen again, it would be in the second week of July.  [Factoring in 5-8 days for the NW flow to finally cease and a transition into that western troughing scenario. ]

Here is the question I have had for the last month as I expected to see this central to western troughing to start….will the energy be strong enough this time of year to pop out the summer time high pressure establishing in the desert SW?

Looking at the GFS, it hints..but isn’t much help due to the climatology bias built into the long term runs.

I am not sure it happens nearly as strong or even near as deep.  If that doesn’t happen, I cannot think that THIS area would pick up much rain as the vorticity would be quite a bit to our NW.  Perhaps Minn/Wis might get very wet..maybe trailing into northern Nebraska or Iowa…but…are you confident it will get this far south?

All said, I agree with the LRC.  I agree it can be used to some extent [ how much, still unclear], and certainly can provide value [much like the repeating “storm” in last year’s cycle].  I also understand how it is [in my opinion] much more reliable than CPC – El Nino/La Nina climate maps.

So much left to learn on this thing.  You and Gary certainly have come a long way in the last 3-5 years on this..but so much left to do!

Side note of humor – if we both know where we are in the cycle and have some general agreement, I am lost as to what the heck Gary was thinking in his 4th of July forecast he submitted in mid May for our little contest.  Clearly we are in the dry pattern through this duration, was right in the middle it in May when we did the forecasts, yet his forecast is probably one of the wettest.  

Probably the wrong cycle duration.

LOL

-Scott

Scott,
Just thought I would tell you that I love reading your long posts.  You have obviously done alot of research over the years and I am glad that you are part of the blog!
Becky

Hey where's the new blog? I know you all are busy. So when are some severe storms coming? Last night the wind blew so hard it woke me up about 3am. Let's some fun going today.

Well, got filtered sunshine in Shawnee. Looks like the clearing line is getting close moving in from the West/Northwest. Lets see how unstable we can get and how strong the storms get this afternoon. Looks like we will have a bunch of outflow boundaries all over the place.

Jeff -

Do you guys have an unpaid summer intern with you this year to help sort out some of the data and get this thing ready for a formal presentation yet?  

I know you've spoken at length on this blog about how you've seen this theory for decades, but when is it going to be presented to a jury of your peers (ie:  the AMS) via a refereed journal or conference proceeding?

It seems the same arguments go back and forth on this blog as this theory is communicated on a nearly superficial level - when will it get technical/quantitative and get beyond this entry-level subjective map snapshot idea? **************** No interns this summer.

.33 inches last night at 151st and Mur-Len in Olathe.

Jeff and Scott (and all)

While much of the pure scientific discussion is beyond me, I think it is fascinating to see the pattern. It has been very evident this year. To me, more evident than usual to the casual observer.

I do agree with Scott's observation that when showing two maps as evidence of the LRC, then those should be IDENTICAL views. One map showing the entire US and the other zoomed in does not show the "whole picture."   Perhaps you're only using the images that you have saved from past blogs, in which case I'd suggest taking the same snapshots every day/week/month/whatever. You might even get the graphics gurus at the station to take two images and morph from one to the other.

From my point of view, it looks to me that the LRC will be another tool--one of many--that professional meterologists can use to predict the weather. Will it ever allow you to get to 100% accuracy? Highly doubtful...especially when the pattern is going to vary a little bit here and there within a given year (47-54 days?) You should know that scores of people "out here" respect you and appreciate the work you do; and ESPECIALLY your work to educate the rest of us. Which brings to mind a GREAT idea...how about a "Meteorology 101" class or web site?

Think I am spoiled by Gary starting the day with a new blog, I can't seem to get invoved in a discussion that started 15 plus hours ago.

We had one heck of a rumbling light show last night, with a lot of wind and a noticeable drop in temps, but not a spec of moisture, and judging by the ground, we could use a little bit.

Back to my theory, Kansas..Too Cold, Too Hot, Too Wet, Too Dry,,,,,LOL

SS Pattern Remains Intact!

Just a trace of rain at KCI over the last few days while areas in all directions, beyond some 30 to 50 miles out or so, have seen heavy, if not torrential and flooding rainfall.

It's fascinating to see how the SS pattern continues - yet changes in area, shape and size - as we progress into the summer season.

Clearly some sort of artificial or anomalous electromagnetic radiation continues to manifest an effect, and now encompassing an even broader region!

Jeff -

While you're here communicating this cycling theory, I'm wondering if you could clarify a few things for me.  I was looking back at some previous blog entries and came across the crazy events of April 10th.  Wow - what a day with storms and rain and a lot of action.  

The dominating feature was a very strong closed upper-level low just to our north, as shown in this archived 500mb chart from 00z April 11th, 2008:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_080411_00.gif

[I know the 500mb level is the favored level for you and Gary to show your theory, so I'm looking there too...]

I wanted to see how that event "repeated" ~50 days later so I started looking in late May.  

I looked through several maps, starting about 46 days after April 11th (May 27th):
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_080527_00.gif

48 days (May 29th):
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_080529_00.gif

50 days (May 31st):
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_080531_00.gif

...all the way through about 54 days later (June 4th):
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/maps/500_080604_00.gif

And all I could find was the opposite of a pronounced closed upper-level low in the mid-section of the country.  In fact, the period 46-48 days later started much the opposite - with a ridge over the midsection...and then slowly fell into a more zonal pattern, with nothing resembling a closed low for a thousand miles around.

How do you explain situations like this?  I see you and Gary frequently post maps such as the ones above when you feel a strong "match" has been made, but what about the equally-frequent periods when no "match" is evident?  

**************** Notes, Jeff is off until Saturday(tomorrow) when he is filling in for me. Ask your question to Jeff this weekend if you get a chance. Or Gary will be back next Wednesday. Jeremy

haha siraluce!

.12" at the fort...rather disappointing considering what 'looked' like was coming our way last night.

...maybe this evening will bring a change.

I want wild weather. Keep your radiation to yourself.

It's a certainty that the KCI area will get storms and rain tonight.  I've got a friend coming in from Chicago for my wedding reception tomorrow night.  Tonight we're having a bonfire at my house.  I can guarantee, with 100% accuracy that we won't be missed tonight, just every other day of the year.

Notes - shame on you.  LOL  In all seriousness, you are playing the same flawed game we all know is present.  This is why the map to map comparison is a bogus way to show the cycle.

A better view..if you really are seeking to see it, is to take the week leading up to that day and the week after that event, and looping it.

Watch the large scale movements.  Not just one ULL or trough, but the ridges and the movement through the week.  Compare that to the prior cycle, and I bet you see the same similar movement.

You will be able to pick out some major features in parts of this cycle, such as those I have already shown you.  You will find periods of central [great lakes] troughing, western troughing and a zonal flow.

You will find associated large ridges and troughs that repeat.  It has to in response to the other features.

Point to point does not work by itself.

play nice notes... ;)

pvt_murphy said:
play nice notes... ;)

--

Given Jeff's post here, are my questions not fair game?!? ************ They are fair, but I would ask that you save them for when Jeff can respond. Jeremy

they are...
...but good luck getting an answer in the forum.

One last thought, Notes.

You indicate April 10th as a wild day.  Sure was. Actually the stretch from the 8th through 13th was pretty wet, huh?  A little over an inch and a quarter for KMCI!

We both know that is saying alot for the region of KMCI can get over an inch..LOL

54 days after April 8-13?  June 1-6.  Remember that week?  Over an inch of rain at KMCI.  Not to mention the rest of the region with over 8 inches in places.

Both of these events were part of the transition from a moderate SW flow into this dominating NW flow.

Lets check.  Lets look at 5 days prior to each.  

May 25th - SW flow
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-spc/getuadata.spc?MyDate1=080525&Time1=12&MyDate2=&Time2=12&Align=V&Levels=500

June 1st - NW flow
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-spc/getuadata.spc?MyDate1=080601&Time1=12&MyDate2=&Time2=12&Align=V&Levels=500

Rewind to April

April 3rd - SW flow
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-spc/getuadata.spc?MyDate1=080403&Time1=12&MyDate2=&Time2=12&Align=V&Levels=500

April 8th - ULL moves through and brings the NW flow on the 11th.

So..more importantly than the individual feature, it is the flow and [I contend] the surface trends as well.

Looking at one feature is short sided and sells this theory very short.  That is my frustration with the team.

Jeremy - not cool of Jeff...dump and run.  

That is annoying.  

There always seems to be enough time to create the LRC type blog, but seldom enough time to discuss it with the writer.  

Alas, we will have to take the "why don't you see it" or "just wait until summer to discuss this in depth" as the default answer.

Oh..wait..its Summer. ***************** Seems like you always have time on your hands. I need a job like yours:) Jeff will be at work all day Saturday so get your questions ready! Jeremy

I think its kind of lame that Gary is apparently the only guy on the weather staff that cares to update the blog on a regular basis. *************** I think you are way off base with that claim. Jeff and I updated the blog 3 times yesterday and Brett did once in the morning. We have been trying to answer questions. We try to update the blog as much as possible...but even that isn't enough for everyone I guess:) Jeremy

hailjonathan... interesting post from last night about cycles.

so... when is it finally going to get HOT, HOT, HOT? and dry, too for that matter. the LRC has us in this cycle so will it not be until august???

(new blog!)

Hey, just wanted to let the weather team know that I LOVE the new weather page. ;-) ************ Thanks for stopping by. We will be adding to the page down the road. Jeremy

Scott...

OK, so I have some time off and on this week to devote to some of this weather stuff, so I finally took some time (easy to argue it was too much time) to animate a sequence of maps since that is the way you have repeatedly said I can best see this theory.

I took the first time frame around April 11th and 4 days on either side, for a total of about 8 days...animated those 16 frames (2 per day).  I did the same for the period of time 50 days later...around May 27th through June 4th.  Putting them side by side does little to convince me that this is any sort of evidence for a repeating cycle, as there are more differences than similarities, in my view:

http://www.notesinthemargin.com/uploads/animation

April:  For starters, check out the west coast.  There is a huge, pronounced ridge nearly the entire period for the first time frame (April)...and in the middle of the country, that very strong, closed low that made for such an active period.  I won't go into surface specifics, since Gary has repeatedly said that his theory can make very different surface features each time (like an ice storm one time through and a dry, sunny spell the next time... or perhaps a blizzard).

May:  Then 50 days later...the west is highlighted by weak trough or nearly zonal flow - nearly the opposite of a strong ridge...an no pronounced closed low moves over the middle of the country.  

Look, there is no doubt that the LRC is present..

I have checked loops of the 500 MB chart at various 47 to 54 day cycle intervals and there are clearly troughs and ridges, as well as wet spots and dry areas, repeating in all the loops.  

As with the SS (Siraluce Split), I really don't see how this can be disputed.  Its very clear!

I have been anxiously anticipating a blog entry today!  Although I am looking at it through ignorant eyes it doesn't seem like the cold front is going to come through tonight.  What's the deal?  I'm supposed to go camping tonight and was hoping for some guidance as to the most recent, and accurate weather update.

KCten, It should storm later this afternoon. The cold front will make it thru late tonight.

I have been looking at the surface map on weather.com (am I allowed to say that here?)  Anyway, they show the cold front hanging out in MN and it hasn't moved since early this AM.

Ok I am stuck at work and usually go by the blog to find out what is going on with the weather, but I am having trouble with that since there is no new blog....does anyone know what we are in store for this afternoon and tonight?  Last I heard it was supposed to storm but I don't know how much rain, how bad are the storms supposed to be.....thanks

There are a few boundaries created by the storms last night which will probably kick off a few storms before the front even gets here. The front will make it south eventually but not till late.

Here is the surface map as of 12PM. The dotted line south of the cold front will be what will most likely trigger storms until the cold front catches up.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.html

Dude - Notes...you are an ANIMAL!  How did you do that?  Moreso than that, I could almost offer you my first born for what you showed.

Or didn't show.

You chose the 50 day cycle that has been promoted for quite awhile.  As you know, I don't buy into it.  As you showed, its not there.

I want to thank you for being open enough to do the work to loop this out.  For a non-believer, your stick-to-itness is to be commended!  

This makes it very clear that one of two things is wrong.  Either the LRC is a hoax or that the duration advertised is a hoax.

You put in a lot of time on the animation.  If you can share with me in my/your blog how you did it, I will be happy to show you something.

I propose the following date ranges/matches based on the 56 day cycle [ good grief..I feel like a kid in the candy store]

April 5th - May 31st = 56 days

Thru

April 17th - June 12th - or you can go beyond if you choose.  I have gone through each of these maps one by one...[since I don't know how to loop], and find it striking.

Gosh..it feels like the holy grail.  1. that there is an [easy?] way to loop this to better show the cycle [been mentioning it to Gary for over a year]. 2.  That I believe it very much shows the cycle 3. That the duration is a bit longer than the 50 days or even 52 - but closer to 54-56 days [selfish gratification].

Notes - PLEASE get with me on this as I feel we are very close in better showing this now!

Might see a severe storm or two but that depends on how unstable the atmosphere gets. The sun is out but the dewpoints are a little low for a widespread severe weather event. That could change later though. Should start seeing them fire northwest of K.C maybe around 4-6pm and move southeast towards us.

Storms have just started forming in Nebraska. Those are the ones we will need to watch.

Here you go folks. Meso Discussion for us
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1593.html

Ha, Jeremy...I thought that my comment earlier might "get your goat".

At any rate, where's the new blog entry? With the meso disc just being issued, we're all dying to hear your thoughts.

Boy oh boy, some of you all are harsh! It's nice they even do this blog for us. Now people have been working overtime, only getting one day off a week, moving, having family emergencies, and yet they get slammed for not answering every question, for not creating a new blog daily on our time schedule, and for not having time or energy to debate everything.

Are these guys not allowed to have a life? Clunk me if you need to, but I think the team is not obligated to post, answer or debate anything unless they choose to. This is not their first priority but since they do make a much better effort than most people who have blogs I think we need to cut them some slack. Even some people here don't update their own blogs as much as we demand the weather team to do.

So they do provide a service but it's an optional service you all. Watch the Weather Plus and if you don't have a TV then look at the weather on the weather page here.
This is not their job this is a voluntary thing they do so give em a break and be nice :)

Ahhh...finally.  It looks right

Jeff is off a week.  Here is what he meant to compare....

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-spc/getuadata.spc?MyDate1=080502&Time1=12&MyDate2=&Time2=12&Align=V&Levels=500

Alas..I will save the rest of the cycle topic for later now that we have a meso.

Anyone know the latest on today's and tonight's forecast?

whirlygirl, that is very nice of you.  You are a very kind and loyal viewer.

No, they don't have to do a blog...but now that advertising to the site has been purchased, they are committed to their customers to bring the hits.

While its fair to be understanding, realize that the blog is not something they do out of the kindness of their heart.  It is business.  We find value being here, they find value with us being here.

;-)

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Scott,

We don't look at our blog as business.  Maybe you view your's that way but we do not.  We provide a blog to further educate viewers on weather topics, have direct one on one communication with any of the weather team, and to further extend the 3+ minutes we get on tv into a more in depth forecast analysis in the blog.  The entire weather team enjoys participating in the blog and the interaction with our viewers.

Jeremy

i am fine with a blog not being posted if it were a hot, normal, boring summer day. Since we are getting storms on a friday night it would be nice to get thoughts on what is going to happen.

KcWx, thanks for not clunking. But I didn't know it was just for the advertising. Maybe in the meantime you could just do it on your blog all day until they get their schedules right again.
Ya know, they usually do a blog or more every day and answer lots of q's unless there is some huge severe stuff going on, We understand they don't post as much then. So why can't we be more understanding right now while they have tons of things going on like working lots of OT and having family crises? Once things get back to normal in a week or so with their schedules I can guarantee they'll be right back to blogging alot and answering and making us and their advertisers happy shining people.

Watch possible...

I agree with C in Raymore :)

It is definetly time for a new blog, it doesnt have to be a long one, just one to inform us what the weatherteam expects to happen this evening.

I figure if the weather team had extra time to put together a blog update they would.  I doubt they're sitting at their desk slamming red bulls and munching on cheetos.

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Exactly:)

new blog :)

Right on Nasty woo hoo!

lol looks like the watch will be issued west of me!!! for now anyways

wow Scott you got powned..lol