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up to 3 inch hail and up to 80 mph winds...wow!  Is this thing going to create our every so famous bow echo again?

Jeremy I was JUST getting excited about the other blog and then you go and make a new one! I wanna get slammed tonight. Jeremy if you want me to come down to the studio to help you out because your the only one, I'll cancel my dinner plans with my family. I'm there man. =D

up to 3 inch hail and up to 80 mph winds...wow!  Is this thing going to create our every so famous bow echo again?

The SPC says there is a <95% chance of 6 or more "severe events"!
Sounds like its gonna be an interesting evening!

Gadner could use the rain. The hail can stay on the MO side.

Hi Terd!  So you're heading to the Baja/Mexico area?  I wish you luck!  I was suppose to be there this weekend but had a change of plans.  Have fun:)

Jeremy...you've been doing a magnificant job holding-up-the-fort this week:)

SPC vs. NWS.

We have read the SPC discussion, but as I posted late in the other blog...the NWS is not NEAR as excited in thsi area...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Wow I don't think it's often they say hail to 3 inches in diameter! I hope the storms are isolated an avoid heavily flooded areas. :(. Wow Jeremy I can't believe your the only one there!

Angvic00.

Hopefully we are gonna have fun. We lucked out on weather as mostly everyday it will be Cloudy or raining with temps in the 70s. however it will be humid because Heat Index will be close to 90 each day as well.

Craig. The <95% chance thing is usually normal during severe Thunderstorm watches and Tornado watches.  However They are usually true about this.

The Hail to 3 inches and winds up to 80MPH however seem the same as the PDS Severe Thunderstorm watch we had that didnt produce nothing but about 1-3 inches of rain. Will our significant Bow Echo hit or is that going to be another blowout.

hopefully there will be no rain around Saturday Morning. Or else Delays from southwest.

a 3 and 1/2 hour flight. Yipee <.< >.>

This is IN DEED an exciting STSW it's on the verge of being a pds at least according to the statistics of the last one. man I wanna get NAILED tonight if the tops of the lamp posts in my apartment complex aren't blown off tonight I'm gonna be upset.

Wow, kcwxguy, thanks for putting my fire out. The NWS is depressing. When did Mike Thompson start working there?

Regarding the probabilities, isn't an 80% chance of 10 or more severe hail events pretty high?

Prepare for the collective pfffftttt...

[that is the sound of air out of balloons]

Craig, the watch area is large.  10 events in that size of an area is likely in any watch.  Remember, one cell alone can be responsible for many events.

I am not overly excited about this..and I tend to go with the trend of north and east.

" Craig said:
The SPC says there is a <95% chance of 6 or more "severe events"!
Sounds like its gonna be an interesting evening!"

Ok what am I missing here? How do you get excited over a LESS than 95% chance of a severe event?? That sounds like nuthings gonna happen.

Jonathan, stop. This is nothing near a PDS.

>95%? or <95%?
At any rate, I meant to say "greater than" 95%.

Hey should I expect the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be reissued after 10pm?Clay County is on the very edge of it and I was just wondering if the watch would be reissued over my area again later tonight.

Also, I read that Jeremy says the storms should be out of KC by 1 or 3 am but when should the Severe threat be done?

Any info would be great.

Thank you

I think the watch will be extended to cover areas around and east of KC before the 10 PM expiration of the current watch.  This looks like a pretty good set-up to me, considering the 'worked over' air mass we had to get rid of today.  Of course, the local NWS is more aware of the SS than the National Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK, so perhaps that explains the discrepancy in overall expectations regarding this ominous looking looming event.

HELENE, there is only a 10 mph difference in wind threat between this watch and the pds watch don't tell me to stop. if you get so upset over comments like that maybe you should stop reading this blog.

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Jonathan/Helene,

Please keep your comments in check...let's have a great discussion tonight.

Jeremy

IMO, we are so far on the edge that we are lucky if we get anything at all...

Well I guess that depends where you are located, I'm in Lees Summit

My guess is most of it will be West and North of us. New Meso out...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1598.html

I'm ready for a chasing day again. Hate it when tornado season ends... :(

I've been listening to KFAB in Omaha- my hometown of Fremont (NW of Omaha) and Omaha proper have been nailed big-time.  Huge numbers of people without power, trees uprooted, power lines down, pea to marble size hail and torrential rain.  There is an unconfirmed report of damage to the Quest Center roof, where they are holding Olympic Swim Team tryouts.  Also, there was a TV reporter from Sioux Falls who just happened to be at a large mall when the storm came up- he said people took the orders to evacuate very very seriously- the security officers even blocked the doors and herded people to the safe area.  It sounded like people were having flashbacks to the tornadoes of a few weeks ago...oh yeah, they did say there was no evidence of a tornado, just straight line winds.

FYI:  Your empty radar map is covering up a huge section of the newscast in the upper right-hand corner...most of the NBC Evening News graphics are blocked by it and there isn't anything on the radar...

Jonathan ok I hope you get your almost , just 10mph less, PDS and all the damage you're asking for your area . Keep it away from KCK and keep it there. I don't want damage. Maybe your eyes are still too dilated from your dream (yep it was about weather that dream was so it makes it in the blog).

C'mon people this is supposed to be a fun blog. Don't bring it down... Everyone has different opinions...

KellyC, in storm reports they're saying 80mph winds in Douglas, NE. I dunno wheere that is but I bet that's what happened there too.

ok lets just drop it and go on

I'm sorry I said anything. I don't wish damage for anyone. I'm sorry I said to him to stop. It makes me wanna cry when a person acts like that to me. Because I like exciting weather but I don't like damage or when anyone says there should be damage to make a storm fun. A storm is fun, well to some persons, some persons worry and that is okay too, but it's the storm itself, watching it building and the clouds and how beautiful it can be that makes it exciting not the damage.

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No harm was meant...but Gary addressed this these type of discussions in a previous blog.  And if this type of stuff continues we will turn off the comments during severe wx since we can't monitor the blog at all times.  Lots of people have lots of opinions, but I know everyone can get along and respect each other.

Jeremy

I was planning to chase this early evening,  unfortunatly this system moving in from the north west won't even tap a corner of johnson county unless it gains strength and back builds off to the west as it approaches,. so the liklyhood of any severe weather here in the metro is slim to none unless something changes.   I was hoping for some massive storms as well this evening.

Backbuilding has been the main event lately.. watch your summer patterns..!

Hey Hey now. We could all stop the comments about it. Just move along. We dont need a Good User Leaving again due to Drama on the Board. I dont want it to happen again.

\_O__/  *Is on Storm Watch*

Kumke Weather Service™

Siraluce:  What does the SS say about rain chances for tonight on the KS side of the region?

where did everyone go?

this line doesnt look like it is extending out much, are we going to get missed?

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Some areas will get missed...but the line may fill in more as the evening goes on.

Jeremy

Are we in a timeout?  I look forward to reading this blog when the weather gets interesting.  Let's all play nice.

By golley Jeremy I bet your about exhausted.  Better tell Gary he owes you for all this work in just what 4 days time now?  I was wondering, are we going to see any extension to the southwest in these storms say from Salina to Topeka or not?  Getting late, the sun is setting in the next 90 minutes or so.  And so goes the energy pool.  No energy, no convection or shear.  My grandson though could really use another light show like last night.

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I wonder if this splits around KC?  Looks like storms are going to fire in southern KS and move into the southeast part of the state.  The visible satellite really doesn't have any good cumulus developing on the end of this line north of St. Joe.  Maybe another round to the north and south.

Jeremy

The People who were arguing are. Im trying to Solve Problems my calmin ppl down.

Jeremy:

Good Evening to you sir!! How are you holding up?? I hope you can have a relaxing day tomorrow with the girls!!!! Should be a great day to be outside!!!

Not that I really know what I am doing here, but you in the words of Meatloaf, took the words right out my mouth in the response to davidmcg-I have kinf of been thinking the past couple of hours that Lawrence is going to be on the outside looking in wit this-just not much happening between here and say Saint Joseph. Kind of frustrating in a way since looking at surface charts this for sure one of the more well defined fronts we have seen in a while and looking at the next couple of days, this front does have some punch with it especially for this time of year. Also, our dew point did manage to recover to around 70 and we made the upper 80's out here in the SW part of Lawrence.  Just doesn't seem to be anything to get it going-that weak surface low seems to have kind of washed out so there isn't really a kick starter for us right now. The 21Z RUC also shows the CAP still pretty strong over Topeka and the forecast hour so it is what it is!!! It seems most of the action is where there is more influence from the upper level low which man looks pretty cool on satelite tonight!!! We just need a kicker tonight-have not done real well this season with just frontal passage.  Does this even make any sense??

I will still hope I can some how squeeze a quarter of an inch out somehow but I just don't have much confidence. Oh well-sure will be nice to have those cool dry breezes tomorrow and Sunday-I will take it for sure!!

Scott: I wanted to say thanks for the kind words the other day-I wrote that long boring mish-mash on Tuesday and meant to say something but got caught up in well whatever I get caught up in (LOL) and have not had the chance to really get back into the Blog this week. It is greatly appreciated and as I have said, I am kind of like a broken clock-I can have a decent idea twice a day!!!!

Have a great evening Jeremy-enjoy your day off tomorrow and thanks for providing so much information (you as well Jeff) for everyone-I have to say it: you guys are TIGHT!!!!!

Bill now that I have said all this Lawrence will get 5 inches of rain in Lawrence

New watch just issued!

I'm not gone, I just felt too bad to post. But my Weatherbuggy is saying the watch got extended until 4am.

Why are they issuing another severe t-storm watch?? It look's like it's spliting us.

no, its backbuilding, slowly...you can tell on the radar loop.

I couldn't stand it, I had to come back in. It just does not look that bad outside right now. There are some darker clouds but they do not look threatening. In fact it feels gorgeous outside.

Thunderstorm Watch Number 626 has been issued for counties in the metro and beyond.  This watch is until 0400 Saturday Morning

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I posted the watch info...the link was too long for the blog.

Jeremy

the system has bowed out already reaching it's full potential and is splitting appart, as I stated earlier it won't even hit johnson county and will have very little impact if any on the metro area, as far as back building, there may be a few pop ups or showers associated, but nothing to speak of. why aren't you people out doing something instead of sitting inside?  to defend myself i'm on a laptop mobile with wi-fi having a beer.

Ok-I knew after I typed all that gibberish that I would prob. wind up with egg on my face LOL!!! Before I started typing I kind of thought that maybe they were back building somewhat and trying to extend back west. However, what I have just noticed is that htere seems to be a line trying to form just North of Marysville, Kansas. I am sticking to my above gibberish and saying Lawrence gets the short end of the stick with this, but there does seem to be more storms trying to form and the first line is trying to back build a bit.

Will be interesting to watch over the next 2-4 hours-that should tell the tale. The dew point in Lawrence is at 69 with a temp. of 86 and the RUC I think is showing some decent cape etc. at Topeka but the cap still seems pretty tight. Of course this is all just me throwing darts at a board and hopeing one sticks LOL!!!!

Have a great evening!!

Bill eggs ready to apply to face in Lawrence with towel back in pocket!!

LOL Brian, it is really nice outside and I have an awesome view from my front steps or my deck.

spotters reporting ping pong ball sized hail 1north of coffey in daviess county

Notes..

The SS would argue for back-building with intense storms moving across the Lawrence to Topeka region with a less intense area, or possibly a break in the storms, crossing the KCI area.  

spotters reporting a possible funnel cloud east of coffey in daviess county.. unconfirmed