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Why would you want it to rain on Indapenedance day!?!?!?! ;) Oh well.

Showering right now with .86 inches or rain. At midninght last this morning, there was a small thunderhead with so much lightning it looked like somebody put strobe lights by every window in my house. Whoever loved roller coasters needs to go to Cedar Point, Sanduky Ohio!

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Juba,

I do not want it to rain on the 4th.  I was saying the best chance is on the 3rd & we will try to keep it that way.

Sorry for the confusion.

Jeff

In Smithton we had 1.75 inches of rain.

.51" of rain here.

I wouldn't mind for a good rain the night of the 3rd or morning of the 4th that way all roofs get a good soak!!!

I am wondering if you can't be "observationalists" and still find some way to quantify your data.  Perhaps a daily written description of your maps, which you probably already have, would provide you a pattern that could be mathematically applied.  I don't know enough about weather prediction to give you very good examples, but maybe the isobar distances or latitude/longitude of jet stream placement could give you something mathematical that would make the number crunchers happy. :)  Personally, the maps work for me and I really think that you guys do a great job of bringing the complicated to the viewers in a manner that everyone can understand.

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Colleen,

Thank you.  It is hard to quantify the atmosphere.  The equations that are mainly used are put into models for forecasting.  One of these days we will try to come up with something.

Jeff

Near 76th and N. Troost in Gladstone, I had .6 in. of rain with last nights storm.

Mike in Gladstone

.59 inches at 64th & I-29

I was impressed with the lightnining late last evening. It was constant and bright and beautiful while backlighting so many clouds. It was so ongoing it was actually causing a flickering in my living room. I'm not sue I have ever seen anything quite like it.

 kvluvalcsens

I totally agree with you, especcially for those who have would roofs!

When should we expect to see any sun today?  The Star calls for a sunny Saturday....

Received 3/10 of in inch here in La Cygne last night.

Olathe North HS- .57" Final Total for now

Received an inch of rain last night with the storms that blew through here in Easton, MO.

Jennifer

Some may be wondering about the apparent failure of the SS to hold at KCI for last night's storm event, as KCI came in with 0.53 inches, which was not anomalously low as the SS would anticipate.  

This is hard to quantify exactly, but I have come up with a possible answer:  

Yesterday, as bloggers may recall, Zazel posted:  "It's a certainty that the KCI area will get storms and rain tonight.  I've got a friend coming in from Chicago for my wedding reception tomorrow night.  Tonight we're having a bonfire at my house.  I can guarantee, with 100% accuracy that we won't be missed tonight, just every other day of the year."

I think that there was probably a psycho-karmic meteorological phenomenon at play here that was able to overpower the SS effect.  

Again, its hard to quantify exactly or mathematically, but I am working on it and will try to present something latter on this fascinating rare exception that, in reality, tends to prove the rule.


June 27, 2008 10:46 AM

Jeff - thanks for coming back and clarifying.  While not earth shaking, I appreciate you re-engaging.

This whole year, Gary and likely you have observed a cycle flux.  While I am not sold on the comparisons you made, I have been thinking this year that is a bit longer.  More 52-56 days, but more to the 54-56 variety.

I have done a blog taking the stretch of days from mid April and comparing them to the first week in June.  I did it at 56 days.  I did it for a loop of about a week to best show the comparison.  I would like you to check it out if you get a chance, as it looks striking to me. [click on my name]

I plan on getting all the maps for both 0z and 12z from last August and ingesting them into this type of loop so that we can watch the entirety of the LRC for this year.

This is what has been missing all along in the main evidence.  I expect I will once and for all show strong relationships.  Coupled with the surface trending I have done, I expect quite a display of evidence.  In addition, there are mathmatical ways of doing this.  Hope to share them with you sometime.

Nevermind an intern, you have me...LOL.  

As far as the 4th of July forecast we did in mid May - I used the LRC.  I used the surface trending.  I have in my forecast a front on the 3rd and 4th.  These are the only two days I have for rain.

This is not coincidence.  Long live the LRC!  Oh..and long live the SS.  LOL.

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Scott,

Thanks.  It is a work in progress.  Major discoveries are not proved & solved overnight.

Jeff

jeff-i am a beliver of the LRC. the evidence is out there. i know we have the debates on on the exact number of days. i was thinking maybe for text year in to keeping record on it in the kc area maybe you could pick another city or two to watch and see if the weather pattern sets up there and if it follows a pattern?

Here is my July 4th forecast I went back and found:

June 29---Low: 62---High: 84---Precip: 0.00"---Prob: 10%---Sunny
June 30---Low: 61---High: 86---Precip: 0.00"---Prob: 10%---Sunny w/PM Clouds
...July 1---Low: 62---High: 78---Precip: 0.40"---Prob: 60%---Sct Strong T-Storms
...July 2---Low: 58---High: 83---Precip: 0.15"---Prob: 40%---AM Showers
...July 3---Low: 64---High: 87---Precip: 0.00"---Prob: 10%---Partly Coudy
...July 4---Low: 66---High: 91---Precip: 0.00"---Prob: 10%---Sunny, Hot and Humid
...July 5---Low: 72---High: 93---Precip: 0.00"---Prob: 10%---Sunny, Hot and Humid


Alex from Marceline, MO

kcwxguy let me get this right.  You overall believe in the LRC right?  But at this time of year -- the summer pattern -- instead of a 50 day pattern that I think it was Gary detailed you believe it to be 54-56 days.  Is that right. , is it your belief that the 54-56 day pattern would hold through the end of August or would we see one more adjustment toward the first of August?  Now another thing for you, the NBC Action Weather Team and others who analyze the weather extremely close.  Has anybody gone back say 10-15 years and find a pattern similar to the LRC?  For me the LRC has been relatively accurate these pst 2 years, but what does the future look like now?  Will the LRC hold with ongoing tweaking or fold into another named pattern?  This is important stuff.  Remember a few years ago the terms La Nina and El Nina.  For a couple of years thats all anybody talked about.  Thing changes overall occurred and they aren't mentioned with the same voracity as once held too.  I sure wish that I would have went into meteorology instead of law enforcement all those years ago.  Fascinating and intriguing science here.

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David,

We believe the pattern ends when the new one begins.  We used to think it ended in the summer, with randomness unitl October.  We are not so sure about that.  Right now this year's pattern is still here.  It will be interesting to see what happens.  We did go back and look at other years.  It is certainly there.

Jeff

Scott, I also forecast for this upcoming week based on a 56 day cycle, dampened for climatology. I have a low of 56 for tomorrow morning, followed by a high of 84, then gradually warmer and dry through midweek, followed by rain and cooler on Fri & Sat. So far it seems to be lining up OK. We'll see. :)

My hobbyist hunch is that the LRC functions like an accordion. Once the overall pattern is set, it's the same basic cycle, but it stretches and compacts from season to season (thus, the guess of 56 days for this time of year). Of course, the trick in day-to-day forecasting so far in advance (as we did for this contest) is to nail the cycle length and then appropriately extrapolate the expansion or compression.

While that may be possible, I think the real value in the LRC is in the 8-16 day range (once you have already determined whether you are in an expansion or compression). I can't remember the number of times in the past year that Gary, you and others said "the models are saying this for next week and beyond, but the cycle says otherwise" - and it was right.

Bottom line, that's what the business is about - being right - whether or not you are yet able explain precisely, scientifically, and mathematically why.

You can't create a formula based on nothing but observation and induction.  That would be like saying, I saw ten brown dogs, therefore all dogs are brown.  Besides, formulas are precise; the LRC is not ... yet.

Wow, 7 day forecast is out now and guess what?  The best chance of rain is on Thursday!  No, say it isn't so.  Whats new about that?  Jeff, thanks for answering my question about the LRC.  Maybe it has been said before, but in years past, what has been the average cycle time, if there is such a thing?  Whatever the cycle time is, it sure looks like it believes Thursday is the day of the week to storm.  Could be worse though, it could have been the weekend and spoiled a lot more activity.

Sorry..been away finally doing some work on my site.

David - I do think the cycle varies a bit.  But, the amount of variation is still to be determined.  I find it a bit more rigid than Gary, but we are still learning.  Lots of good points!

Rick - dead on.  I agree with much of that.  I found the accordion affect when surface trending.  Based on trendlines and such, I have a mathematician friend working with me to plot this a bit more scientifically.  Anomalies will exist..but such as many proven cycles, that is accepted so long as documented as such.

I think the LRC can be used at different forecast lengths.  Some shorter, some longer..but it is the amount of detail offered that needs to be considered.

Oh..and if you are curious...I used the premise of a 54 day cycle for my 4th of July forecast, but used my surface trending more heavily.  I might have missed on the first day, but think I might get the rest VERY close.

We will see.  Won't really matter as critics will call it blind luck.  LOL.  I am so glad I started my blog as to document the learnings along the way and to have a point of reference for when things were discovered.

This thing will get proved out before too long.  [[I think]]

For giggles..here was my forecast...

June 29th High Temp – 91  Low Temp – 69  PoP: 0% Precip – NONE  
June 30th High Temp – 88  Low Temp – 68  PoP: 0% Precip – NONE
July 1st High Temp – 86  Low Temp – 68  PoP: 0% Precip – NONE
July 2nd High Temp – 84  Low Temp – 67 PoP:  30% Precip – NONE
July 3rd High Temp – 83  Low Temp – 69  PoP:  60% Precip - .60 in.
July 4th High Temp -  82  Low Temp – 62  PoP:  40% Precip - .23 in.
July 5th High Temp -  89  Low Temp – 68  PoP:  0% Precip – NONE

I will miss the high temp tomorrow badly.  The rest may come into line within 5 degrees.  I am most satisfied with my PoPs at this point.  Got a chuckle when I looked at the 7 day forecast from this team.

Not too far off..and PoPs will change here as we get closer...

Not bad for using the LRC and surface trending.  I won't say much more on this until it is over.  Should it pan out...that would be VERY cool.

Good just incredible fantastic morning to the Weather Team!! Man is it spectacular out this morning or what?? Cool breezes from the NW a dew point of 52 52 in late June???!!! Wow what a incredible day!!! One rarely gets days like this from June, 21st to September 10th in this area!!!!!

Enjoy everybody!!!! Have a great day

Bill in Lawrence

We need a new blog. This one is slow. ************ You may have to live without a new blog today. Gary, Brett, Jeff, and myself are off. Here's the forecast. Windy...highs around 80...and dry:) Enjoy your Sunday! Jeremy

ok...I guess I can live without a new blog =]

I love this weather. It would be even better without wind, but I shouldnt complain knowing what the weather could be like outside.


Alex Pickman

Here is the Indapendance Day  Forecast From Me!
       Low    High    Rain   Chance   Amount
Mon:   60       84      N/A      5%       trace
Tue:   69    88-90     N/A       0%        N/A
Wed:  70       89       A.M.    10%      .5"
Thur:  65       83   Few Svr   44%     .10-1.00"
Fri:     64       84    Morn   20-30%    .10"
(Indapendence DAY)

Jeremy, how kind of you to man the blog!  On your day off, you are a team player!

Hope you can find some time to enjoy outside with the kiddies.  I did...it is great outside!

Fun week coming up...get some rest, you did a great job this last week!

[[dropped a monster blog on my site, should you be bored and wanting to read]]

Have a good day!

BTW - juba, good luck on your forecast!  Curious, isn't a tenth to an inch of rain rather broad? **************** I'm still filling in for Gary thru Tuesday. He's back on Wednesday. I was outside for a while today...pretty nice...lots of wind. Jeremy

kcwxguy: that would be for one of the places the got one of the biggest thuenderstorms that day but it still is probably a little high.

Is it going to be 79, 81, or 84 on Monday? *************** 84 is what was on the newscasts. Always check out our shows for the most updated forecast. Jeremy