NBC Action Communities

Outstanding Gary glad you had a good time.  Tell us of the discussion there on the LRC would you?  We just had a nice thunderstorm roll through here in McLouth.  Heavy rain, some lightening and light wind.

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David,

A few meteorologists did talk to me about the LRC.  We had some great conversations about it, mostly the meteorologists from our part of the nation. 

Gary

Beautiful pictures Gary, thanks for sharing!  I'm glad you had a good trip.  It's been great weather here, can do without the rain but I guess it's inevitable.  It will give me a chance to use the new rain gauge I got from Cocorahs.  Welcome Back!
--deb

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Deb,

That is a great raingauge.  And, it can handle up to 11 inches of rain.

Gary

gary looks like you had a great time your dogs were having a blast in the water.also your weather team did a great job while you were gone could not ask for more.well hope we hear some news from your meeting.

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We did have a good time.  There were some great topics, with the emphasis on Global Climate Change.  They had a panel discussion with 6 experts from around the world, and of course there was some controversy, but they just laid out the facts.

Gary

Gary, is there a way in which the facts the panel laid out could be summarized by you on the blog or posted as an attachment if possible?

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There was a 90-minute panel discussion with five eminent climate scientists on the facts about climate change:  Kevin E. Trenberth, of NCAR; Randy Dole, of NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL); James J. O'Brien, from Florida State University; Pieter Tans, of ESRL; and Warren M. Washington, from NCAR.  They were all in agreement on the facts of the current warming being caused by man.  But, they left the door open on all of the possible future impacts and what we should do about it.

Gary

Great pics!  CO is always nice in the mountains.  Have a great 4th!

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Thanks, it is good to be back, but it's also back to a lot less sleep.

Gary

Pretty threatening looking here at Maple Woods...waiting for the storm to get here.
Welcome back Gary.  Love the pics.  Glad you had a good time.  My puppy is still scared of water so she would never get in a creek like that! lol
Becky

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Becky,

It was a moving creek, so I was a bit concerned as the current was fairly strong.  But, they just walked through it.

Have a fantastic day.

Gary

Welcome Home Gary, I cannot begin to tell you how I missed your early morning coffee blogs. Here, north of Leavenworth, we were ready for a few thunderstorms, grass was looking a little limp and with the 4th right around the corner it always makes me feel better if thing are "wet down"

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Thanks, and Leavenworth was hit directly by this strong thunderstorm this morning.  Tonight, it should be a bit more widespread.

Gary

Wonderful pictures Gary! I am glad you had such a good time and it seems that Breezy and Stormy had quite a good time also. The pictures reminded me of home and I cannot wait to be back there in less than a month. Now if only I can teach my dog not to be afraid of the water...

Glad to have you back.

Mark

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Mark,

It is amazing that Breezy and Stormy are water dogs.  Windy would walk in, but never swim.  Both Breezy and Stormy swim well.

Have a great trip to Colorado.

Gary

How long have we been keeping records on temperatures?  

If we agree that the temperature is going up and down then what is causing it? We have not been producing man manmade c02 but for the last 200 years.

Can we agree that the SUN is the biggest factor on the temperature outside? why is it cold at night?

I don't buy it. if c02 is causing global warming then i should quit breathing.
C02 is consumed by trees, we exhale c02. seems like it was created to be that way. At this moment in time I can't correlate manmade c02 to a rise in temperature.

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I don't want to start a "heated" debate today, but the experts have taken into account the last 300,000 years of data sampling, using ice cores, and other factors.  They said that the solar and other natural changes have been fairly flat over the past 100 years, and that the sun has had an impact of 0.1%.  I am not an expert in this area, but just listening.

Gary

Really enjoyed the pictures!  Colorado is my favorite vacation state- we have relatives in Boulder.  Was a bit surprised to see all the clouds and a few sprinkles this morning as I missed the 10 o'clock news cast last night, but won't complain!  Just wish the humidity wasn't going back up today- Ug!  Glad you made it back safely- we always miss you when you're gone but you have a very capable team to stand in for you!  Dea

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Dea,

I was off one more night, so I am proud to say that NBC Action News was the only forecast to predict this mornings thunderstorms.  Jeremy and Jeff made the right call.

Gary

Just have a quick question- what is typically considered the hottest day of the year ( on average )?  I'm thinking it is in July but wasn't sure.  dea

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Dea,

I will have to check, but the hottest two weeks on average are the last week of July and the first week of August.

Gary

Wow I wish I could go back to RMNP this summer.  We stayed in Estes Park a few years back and made day trips into the park, what an amazing place to see.  I remember using some one-way gravel road into the park with no guard rails on the side and stopping off to see waterfalls along the way.  Also, there were always people out mountain biking, which I can't even imagine how physically fit you have to be to survive those inclines at that elevation.  Anyway, that is definitely one place you have to visit in your lifetime.  Glad you had a great trip!

As for our weather what are you guys thinking for rain totals today and tomorrow for JoCo KS area?  I just want a dry evening for the 4th!

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It still looks dry on Friday evening.  And, yes, I saw the bicycles going up to 11,000 feet.  How do they do it?

Gary

We just had VERY heavy downpour and small hail in Smithville!!

Pictures of the dogs are great Gary!!  Glad you are back.

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Thanks, now if I could get some rain on my lawn? I think we will later today.

Gary

The CO2 in human breath has absolutely nothing to do with climate change. All the CO2 that you breathe comes from food. The carbon in your food was taken out of the atmosphere by plants in the last year or so. It's a wash, or "carbon neutral". What matters is when we release carbon that has been locked up for a very long time time. This includes not just the carbon stored in fossil fuels, but also carbon stored in old trees and soils.  

There is certainly room for lots of debate on this subject, but you need to understand basic concepts like this before you can contribute to the debate.

Welcome Back Gary:  

Had a pretty good down pour here in plattewoods and another round going on right now. have a good 4th.

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Thanks, you too!

Gary

So are we looking at severe storms this afternoon/evening?

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There may be a few severe thunderstorms, but mostly just very heavy rain and a lot of lightning.

Gary

Gary, what did the other meteorologists in the midwest have to say about the LRC? Were the for or against it.

I have been to Rocky Mountain National Park and its absoultly amazing. Its one of my favorite vacation spots.

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Estes Park is beautiful, right at the base of Rocky Mountain National Park. 

The meteorologists that talked to me about it have actually been following our blog.  They have paid closer attention to it, and one of my conversations with a meteorologist in Omaha thinks there is a correlation to the Southern Oscillation.  But, he also thinks it will be a wild hurricane season, so let's see what happens.

Gary

Well Gary if I ever figure out how those cyclists go up mountain inclines at 11,000 feet you'll probably see me in the Tour de France, LOL.  So yeah I won't ever figure that one out.  Regardless, I applaud anyone who can do that on a continuous basis.  I'll stick to running 8 miles a week in the flatlands of Kansas.

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I just got back from running 3 miles with Breezy and Stormy.  I hadn't done any cardio in the past week.  I am out of breath.  The dogs are panting heavily.

Gary

I know someone always asks about timeframe, so today it will be me ...

We have a swim meet tonight beginning at 6:30.  Do you know approximately what time this evening it will be raining in the metro? (We are in southeast Lee's Summit.)  Should we prepare for a cancellation??

Thanks!

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The timing won't really be known until we see the first thunderstorms go up this afternoon.  I would guess that your area will have the best chance between 6:30 and 10 PM. If it is closer to 10 you may be O.K.  But, I am not sure yet.

Gary

Gary,

Glad your back!  Those are some cute pictures of the dogs!  I'm glad you had a great time out there, but unlike you, we all had to deal with a few of those nice thunderstorms...lol.  And Jeremy and Jeff did make the right call on the AM storms, I am getting some nice rainfall right now as I am posting this message.  Well Gary glad your back...see you at 5PM!  =)

Jacob

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Jacob,

Thanks!  Talk to you soon.

Gary

Rdub I appreciate the elitist comments, but I will bring my common sense questions to the table.

anyway... back to weather

7-8 for the storms Gary?

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This is when I am expecting them.  But, let's see how this mornings activity continues to behave first.

Gary

PEA SIZE HAIL IN KEARNEY

Great to have you back, G-Man. A couple of questions:

1) Is today/tonight just a rain event? Is there any real possibility of large hail/wind?

2) Does the front stall close enough tomorrow to make it a wet day here?

3) Is there any possibility the front lifts back north on Friday into Nebraska causing a rainy holiday up there?

Thanks.

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These are great questions.  Maybe I will start my weathercasts with them tonight. 

1.  There may be some quarter size hail in a few very localized spots, but most of today's thunderstorms will be below severe limits

2.  The front slowly moves by, but how fast is still a question.  Where will it be Thursday evening?  I am not sure yet.

3.  There may be an area or two of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, but most of it looks dry, here and in Omaha.

Gary

Brocksmama.  July 24 is by average the hottest day of the year in KC.  The hottest week is July 21-27.

I weep for the future of humanity when education and knowledge are branded as elitist while ignorance masquerades as common sense.

Gary, I apologize to you for my last comment, but someone struck a nerve....anyway, nice pics from CO and glad to have you back.  The conference sounds like it was interesting.

I am working can someone update me on the forcast? thanks!

Here in NW Ray County...near Lawson...we have received 2" of rain this morning.  It is still raining lightly.  More widespread rain this evening???

Chance for rain bewild79

The only way I see GW is real, is if Revelation is starting to come true. otherwise, I don't buy it. It's just a natural cycle. I heard that the center of Antarctica,and Greenland are getting colder,and colder (saw it on Nature), I believe that soon the earth will go back into a cooler cycle.

I was trying to find out something a little more specific.....:)

Hello all.  After reading a couple of the comments today I decided to de-lurk and add my two cents.  I have been a reader of this blog for a while now and find it informative and interesting.  Now to my comments...  First off, Science should never be based upon concensus.  A very short time ago there was concensus that the Earth was flat and that the Sun revolved around it.  I suspect in the not too distant future some of the current concensus theories will seem just as foolish.  At present there are no models sophisticated enough to accuratly predict the temperature even seven days out.  I'm not talking about close.  I mean an accurate and consistent prediction.  With that being the case, how can anyone possibly believe that there is a model that can accurately predict a temperature over the next 50 years?  Is the planet getting warmer right now? Probably.  Are humans contributing to it?  Maybe, maybe not.  What does that mean for the future?  Nobody has a clue.  Any other conclusions cannot be come to from facts.  I apologize if this is out of bounds and I'll go back to lurking.

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I used the word consensus.  I am sorry, I should have used the word unanimous.  Every scientest on that panel laid out the facts, and there was no debate once they did.  It wasn't opinion.  This is the point I should have made.  With this said, I know this is going to be very controversial, so let's just take a deep breath and think about it.

Gary

65th & State Avenue
.16 inch of rain for the morning round.

watching for more

I know :)

Is there much danger of hail in the storms today? I'd hate to get my brand-new car damaged by hail...

Have fun all with the whimsical GW discussions.

Gary - small selfish request.  Please talk to whomever cares about ensuring the majority of the rainfall occurs after midnight.

Thank you in advance.

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Scott,

We put your order in, but it will mostly fall before midnight, but you have hopes for tomorrow evening too.

Gary

Gary, what cute dogs you have... they look so happy and carefree. i just love dogs and how simple pleasures can make them so content. There is something to be learned from a dogs perspective on life!

Now my weather question. Are the rain showers going to be isolated in nature or more wide spread and how much rain can we expect from these showers? My roof is still being put on and I'm not sure they will finish today - I hope so though. I'm in La Cygne, KS.

Permanent Scowl, I know Gary doesn't want a debate on this forum with Global Warming and I will respect that, but for the record, thank you for your comment which I  agree with.

Gary, if one believes the current RUC, I may be ok.  While rain will be around, it may be avoiding my favorite place just to the south.

LOL

Ok I will try again....:) Can anyone update me on what was said on the midday forcast?  I am stuck at work and didn't see it.  Thank you!
Becky

0.82" for the morning round in Smithville.

Breezy and Stormy are totally posing for the picture!  How did you get them to do that so perfectly?  Okay, my allergies are going crazy today... is it pollen, mold or both?  

This forecasting competition sure is getting interesting...and this morning's convection really shook up the standings.  

The overnight low had been 73, but 69 is what will go down in the books as the low as the temperature dropped another 4 degrees as the convection rolled through around the 9am hour.  

Over a quarter-inch has already been tallied at KCI for the day...

I am just glad this rain has kept us out of the 90's today. =]

Alex from Marceline

BeWild wish I could help you out.  I missed it as well, kiddo n the game cube :)  oh wellz.. we'll catch it this afternoon.

Try n check the weather page maybe you can find the answer... I'll be heading there in a little bit.. glued to Days at moment

Jimmymac, thank you for your previous answer to my question about the hottest day of summer!  Dea

"I am just glad this rain has kept us out of the 90's today. =] "

I guess that depends on where you are.

 
sedsinkc said:
I weep for the future of humanity when education and knowledge are branded as elitist while ignorance masquerades as common sense.

I think you read my statement wrong... maybe elitist was a bit strong. I was referring to this statement

"There is certainly room for lots of debate on this subject, but you need to understand basic concepts like this before you can contribute to the debate."

I can't question him b/c I'm not educated in that field.  I can ask common sense questions. like why is warmer during the day? I connect warmth with the sun. I was not looking down on believers of global warming. I just feel there are too many factors to say yep it's c02! and if you disagree you can't ask questions.

Notes, based on the scoring, I would rather be right on temps than rainfall..

LOL

Siraluce,

The time has come.  We need to envoke the sequence for unleashing the SS.

If I understand the theory correctly, this can be done by repeating the following three times...

"I will cancel my outdoor plans as not to get rained out"
"I will not wash my car as it will rain"

Everyone step back...the SS needs some room to initialize.

LOL

Scott -

First off - yes, I agree that temps are MUCH more important in our forecasting competition, given the scoring setup.

Second - You seem to make a lot of wisecracks about the Siraluce Split...as though it isn't scientifically sound.  To pin it down to simply repeating two phrases three times in a row is pretty lame...you and I both know it can't be pinned down that much.  It is much more ambiguous and subjective than just those two statements.

If it rains more at KMCI today, I'm sure it can be explained via the Siraluce Split.  After all, the SS does state that rain will fall in July!  If it doesn't rain, that makes sense too since the split implies the rain will go around the airport...not to mention, the jet is further north this time of year, taking the energy up there with it, you know?

Oh - and I washed my car yesterday, for what its worth.

It's a hot here at Jhonson County Airport! 93* and feels like 102*! I can't belive it myself and I here it's rather cool at KCI? I've got family who's come in today for the fourth of July!

I haven't washed my car in almost a year and a half and have no plans to do so anytime soon, for what it's worth.  Perhaps that is the reason KMCI is always low on the rain pole.

In regards to the SS, I believe it will hold water, or no water as the case may be, tonight.  As my name was invoked last Friday in regards to the temporary failure of the SS to line up with past results, I feel it necessary to point out I have no outdoor plans this evening.  This assures all believers that tonight's precipitation pattern will result in the KMCI area getting 30% of the rain amount that other areas around the metro accumulate.  We will be able to prove or disprove this one mathematically, Notes!

Notes -

You are wrong.  First, the phases were not of defintion, but of the scientific and documented initiation sequence as documented by a qualified intern.

For you to imply that I am trying to be too precise on the definition is crazy.  We wil have to have this discussion another time when we are not tracking these wiley storms!

It makes me want to scream "how can you not see this, it is so OBVIOUS to me!"

As far as how KMCI is impacted via the SS, I fully agree.  I have been tracking the evidence of the SS at the surface, and it is clear this is how it works.

I can provide you a spreadsheet as proof.

I presume you simply used seasonal norms to substantiate your claims.

gary said"
I used the word consensus.  I am sorry, I should have used the word unanimous.  Every scientest on that panel laid out the facts, and there was no debate once they did.  It wasn't opinion.  This is the point I should have made.  With this said, I know this is going to be very controversial, so let's just take a deep breath and think about it.

Gary
"


Seems to me there wasn't much of a discussion. Going back 300,000 years is pretty speculative as well. Mankind is way to prideful. We have been studying as a science the weather for a couple hundred years, still can't get the forecast right one day out, but we know beyond a shadow of a doubt how we will affect the weather in 50 years.
I seem to remember in the 80's the big scare was the next ice age. Lets get back to the actual scientific way of proving things. Not just proving it by enough people saying it.

Scott -

My cat Frankie and I have looked over the maps and are seeing this SS very differently than you, Scott.  This is something I've been tracking for decades and know it is true - it is just a matter of how I communicate it I guess.

A couple of nice-looking cumulus clouds are passing over my location right about now, so I'm going to have to ask that we come back to this topic at another time.

Oh - and no, I don't only use seasonal norms - I use the cornerstones of the SS in my forecasts!  Wait until after tonight and then tomorrow I'll be able to fully explain (with maps and all) how the SS functioned during this rainy, warm (or dry and cold) night that KCI is about to have.  

Status quo.

Touche.

So are there going to be more T-storms develop after this current weak line of showers moves through?