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Afternoon update

Good afternoon everyone,

There is a thin band of showers moving through this afternoon.  We are analyzing the new data, but this cloud cover associated with the showers, may considerably reduce our threat of thunderstorm redevelopment near the weak front.  We will continue monitoring this situation closely, but we may be reducing our evening chance of thunderstorms.  By our 5 PM newscast we should have a better feel for this.

The bottom line, is that the chance of evening thunderstorms is less, but there may be development tonight.  I will have the blog updated sometime this evening.

And, Notes (one of our favorite bloggers), has been keeping track of the forecasts that about 10 of us made 50 days ago.  If you just go by temperatures alone, I have the standings after 3 days below:

  1. Mike L (21)
  2. Rdub (24)
  3. Gary L (26)
  4. LSGolf (27)
  5. Notes (29)
  6. BellGolf (36)
  7. Scott (38)
  8. Gary B (51)

The above include highs and lows only!

 

Gary

Published Wednesday, July 02, 2008 3:12 PM by glezak

Comments

 

Brad said:

I'm not happy about that little band of showers developing as i was thinking the same thing as you...will cut our rain chances down for tonight.  I would actually like to see some significant moisture here south of Topeka.

Good news is as i type the sun came out w/mostly sunny skies behind this band of showers so maybe it will be enough.  
July 2, 2008 3:26 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

Whoa - by temperatures alone?  Why not include precip?

If you include precip, the standings through Day 3 (yesterday) are as follows:
(remember, low score = more accurate forecast):

1.  Mike L.........21.00
2.  RDub...........24.00
3.  LSGolfer......27.50
4.  Notes..........31.50
5.  Lezak..........32.85
6.  Scott...........38.25
7.  BellGolf.......38.25
8.  RickMcKc....42.00
9.  GaryB.........59.50

The top three forecasters are currently beating consensus (very difficult to do over long periods of time).

The next few days are going to really shake up those standings.  Interestingly, 7 of the 9 forecasters forecast precip on Thursday (consensus amount = 0.27") and 8 of the 9 forecast precip on Friday (Independence Day) with Gary being the only dissenter (consensus amount = 0.39").

More discussion, including ideas for another forecasting competition, including a short-term one:
http://www.notesinthemargin.com/phpBB3/viewforum.php?f=5
July 2, 2008 3:36 PM
 

WycoSpotter said:

Kiss of death from the National Weather Service for this rain event. Looks like they have issued a Flash Flood Watch

Flash Flood Watch
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
335 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2008

...MORE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED...

.A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FROM
LATHROP TO MARSHALL THIS MORNING. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT CENTRAL MISSOURI AND ADJACENT EASTERN KANSAS THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING.
July 2, 2008 3:42 PM
 

Brad said:

WycoSpotter - yep...k.o.d.  blast!
July 2, 2008 3:49 PM
 

nastyweather said:

I think I'm going to go ahead and wash the car after reading about the Flash Flood Watch.  I have a feeling all of the significant rain will miss me in JoCo KS.
July 2, 2008 4:07 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

Gary,

I don't envy the position you're in for the 5pm/6pm newscasts...this is a tough forecast!  People are counting on it since its a holiday week, but man, these clouds and the fact that the front really falls apart on top of us aren't helping matters.

It now appears as though we won't even really get into northerly surface flow after tonight...just more easterly which will be welcome tomorrow to cool us a bit, but won't really be like the last front was over the weekend - the one that gave us free AC.

--------------------

Notes,

Yes, this is very tough, on my first day back.  Jeff Penner keeps saying "I'm glad it is you that has to explain this situation".  Maybe by 5 and  6 PM the front will be well defined.  The atmosphere is destablizing, and we may yet see a nice line of thunderstorms develop, like we thought just a few hours ago.

And, keep up the scores.  I will post your totals on Friday, after we get through the next two days.  I like the temperatures alone scenario, because of the forecasting specific rainfall amounts are difficult in a 1 day forecast, not to mention 50 days out.  I think that should be looked at on a one week total, or something like that.  But, it is what it is.

Gary

July 2, 2008 4:10 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

So, let me tip the perception as well...

Gary, since you wanted to go off temps, how about go off just precip?

Name      Rank

Lezak 9
Scott 1
Notes 6
Rdub 1
LSGolfer 4
RickMcKc 1
GaryB 7
MikeL 7
BellGolf 4

Today as not been included as it is not over, but to Notes point - today into the next few will shake things up a bit.

The rain this morning was mana from above.  It kept my temps in line as well as pushing off any real rain to perhaps after midnight for KMCI.

I think.

-----------------

Scott,

LOL

Gary

July 2, 2008 4:33 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Gary, the LRC should better reflect precip trends than temp trends, I would have expected better from you.

LOL

Unless of course...it is closer to a 56 day cycle which you would have nailed it!

I have to have a little fun here...

"I like the temperatures alone scenario, because of the forecasting specific rainfall amounts are difficult in a 1 day forecast, not to mention 50 days out"

Sorta like your forecast high today from the yesterday's blog?

"For Wednesday we will continue to see warm to hot temperatures with highs around 90."

Just kidding..this is tough...I can only find some sort of amusement out of this as for what ever reason [LRC..er I mean luck], I am doing well today on my forecast.

I got slaughtered the first two days on temps, but had the precip right.

Great learning experience....
July 2, 2008 4:39 PM
 

Craig said:

G-man: Where is the front right now? Where should we be watching for storm development...if there is going to be any.
July 2, 2008 4:40 PM
 

mdg2fast4u said:

I know I am a little late but welcome back Gary! Hope you and the dogs had a great time.
July 2, 2008 4:47 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

man i wish i had gotten in that contest....maybe i will catch the next one...

the atmosphere feels juiced over here...storms should start firing soon here on the ks side...
July 2, 2008 5:08 PM
 

Stormdog said:

Stormdog - Totally nothing here - of course - Blue Springs has reestablished the BSHE - my grass isn't growning and cracks are appearing in our soil - what frustration to see those storms to our north and here of 1-2", and for then, the heavy rain event to happen south of us, perhaps.  Glad I have my birds and crochet, otherwise, I'd be blowing my brains out (just kidding).  For my house, not a real exciting few days.

However, it has cleared and seems to be heating nicely now (I mowed the lawn) - also several boundaries about per NWS.  And...don't get too dependent on models, as the NWS said - they don't do well with these surface set-ups at all - just takes a good complex in NE pushing a cold-pool and storms SE and the front may end up farther south than some might think.  Just a thought, tho I won't hold my breath for storms tonite.

Later,
Dog
July 2, 2008 5:15 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Reading Notes remarks in today's earleir blog has been extremely entertaining. Totally worth reading the blog today, even if it won't rain enough to water my lawn. The dogs are killing the back yard anyway.
July 2, 2008 5:16 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

Well me for one wishes it would either rain or that that cool front would get a move on.  The humidity is killer.  72 degree dew point ewwwwwwwww..
July 2, 2008 5:29 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

Grrr lil finger.. hit enter before I had a chance to say

HIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
Jeri..  glad to see you back posting.
July 2, 2008 5:30 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Hi Stacy, being very careful when I do but I did miss it :)
July 2, 2008 5:44 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Eastern Livingston, and Western Linn Counties, MO.

Alex From Marceline
July 2, 2008 5:50 PM
 

Jeffro said:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1671
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0559 PM CDT WED JUL 02 2008
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...FAR SERN NEB...FAR NWRN MO...FAR SWRN IA
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 022259Z - 030000Z
 
  AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY THIS
  EVENING...WITH VIGOROUS STORMS PERSISTING ALONG NUMEROUS SURFACE
  BOUNDARIES.  GIVEN SURFACE CONVERGENCE/FOCUS FOR RENEWED
  CONVECTION...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE FOR MODEST SHEAR
  AND SUSTAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.  WW MAY BE NEEDED
  SOON.
 
  SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDING
  SWWD FROM NEAR COU/SOUTH OF MCI INTO NERN KS...WITH INTENSE/SEVERE
  STORMS BEING SUSTAINED ALONG IT OVER PORTIONS OF E-CENTRAL KS.
  OTHER INTENSE DEVELOPMENT IS TIED TO MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING
  INTO FAR SERN NEB/SWRN IA AND NWRN MO.  LTH PROFILER INDICATES SHEAR
  REMAINS RESPECTABLE /SFC-6 KM AND SFC-3 KM SHEAR AROUND 30
  KT/...ESPECIALLY INVOF 2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPE.  THIS SUGGESTS SEVERE
  THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS FRONT CONTINUES
  ADVANCING SEWD...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
  WINDS INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL.
 
July 2, 2008 6:05 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Very loud cracks of thunder in western Shawnee. Still has the potential to be a PPS.
July 2, 2008 6:06 PM
 

Jeffro said:

I'm in Shawnee as well.  Looks like a wee little storm is trying to form right on top of us.  It's getting louder by the minute!
July 2, 2008 6:08 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

T-Storm watch until midnight for the metro.
July 2, 2008 6:16 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

I have slearing skies, as I said , a PPS.
July 2, 2008 6:25 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

Jeri
Definition of  'slearing' please?? lol jus teasin ya
July 2, 2008 6:45 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Wow, can any Shawnee folks see that big round cloud with the lowered center? Cool!
July 2, 2008 6:59 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Ok that thing is rotating! Gary I am uploading a picture to you in email of it.
July 2, 2008 7:09 PM
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