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Here are the standings going in to later today...the only thing left is today's high (and perhaps precip, if we get any?!?).

1. MikeL ........63.1
2. LSGolfer ......63.85
4 (tie). Notes ...79.85
4 (tie). Scott ....79.85
5. RDub .........84.6
6. BellGolf .......90.45
7. Lezak ........90.55
8. RickMcKc ....91.75
9. GaryB .......128.95


Wow - what a close race for the top position! MikeL has a forecast of 83 for today and LSGolfer has a forecast of 86. Today's high will determine who wins.

Since Scott and I both have a forecast high of 89 for today (and 0.00 precip - so even if we get some, we'll both earn the same number of error points there), we will end the game tied...how amusing is that?!?

And as I surmised a few days ago, I guess via the standings, we can conclude that 2008 is in fact not 1993.

This was a hell of a game guys - thanks for participating. I've got a busy weekend on tap, but I'll post the final standings sometime later tonight or tomorrow.

More discussion here:
http://www.notesinthemargin.com/phpBB3/viewforum.php?f=5

The weather was beautiful although I had to leave the fun to go to work, my family enjoyed it!  Could not have asked for a better day so thanks for the great forecasting!  Awesome job guys~~~

Notes, LSGolfer has 68.85 as shown on the scorecard and not 63.85.

Yes, this has been quite a game and challenge!  

Mike

So how do all these bloggers compare to the KSHB weather staff for the same time period?  Can you show what KSHB's total would be for the same time period? ****************** I think only Gary entered the competition. These forecasts were done over a month ago I think. Jeremy

Well, I guess my score shows that we did not lengthen out to a 56 day cycle. :-) Thanks for the chance to play!

Rick

MikeL - oops - thanks for the correction!  I made that scorecard with a too-small font - a good lesson for me next time.

Fantastic job on the forecast challenge - you did remarkably well and certainly earned that top spot!!  Well done!

Kimberly - Gary Lezak is the only one of the KSHB staff that entered our challenge and you can see how he stacks up against the rest in the standings shown above.  This was basically a week-long forecast game that we did as a long-term challenge...we all documented our forecasts on or prior to May 15th.  

You can read more about it here:
http://www.notesinthemargin.com/phpBB3/viewforum.php?f=5

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Actually, if you add up the amount of rain forecast for the week, only two of the forecasters actually predicted close to the actual amount of rainfall for the week.  My forecast was for just under 3 inches of rain for  the week, which will end up being the most accurate total!  Controversy, don't you love controversy!  When you are making a forecast 50 days out, if you are off by a day or two on precipitation, but you get the right amount, then you should be rewarded.  So, the way Notes is calculating the week, it just doesn't work.  It works for a forecast made today for the next 4 days, but not one 50 days out! 

Thoughts.....

Gary

Sounds like sour grapes.

LOL

Considering every aspect of this forecast competition - from the time frames to the variables to be included to even yes, the specifics of the verification system (scoring)  were discussed openly and were agreed upon by all involved (without so much as a single protest), I'd say to now argue the scoring setup wasn't accurate or appropriate is indeed sour grapes, in my opinion.

And yes - MikeL was correct that I made an error in transcribing the LSGolfer's score above...the breakdown should look like this (remember:  lower score = more accurate forecast):

1. MikeL ........63.1
2. LSGolfer ......68.85
4 (tie). Notes ...79.85
4 (tie). Scott ....79.85
5. RDub .........84.6
6. BellGolf .......90.45
7. Lezak ........90.55
8. RickMcKc ....91.75
9. GaryB .......128.95

...with only today's high temperature (and potentially precip- if it happens) yet to be included.

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Notes,

I agree, just making a point on how I would have done precipitation.  But, it is what it is. 

Gary

Also...

With this competition about concluded, I say we give it another go.  Perhaps either a competition for Labor Day week/end and also a shot at a short-term forecast challenge...like forecast the next few days and do it every day for a week or two ... similar scoring setup as the last time, but it might be fun to compare results on the shorter time frame.

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I think we should wait until the next LRC sets up for our next contest, as the pattern is uncertain at that point (Labor Day Week).

On this one, I wish I would have gone for some lower lows, and slightly lower highs.  I was playing it too conservative, and my forecast suffered slightly.  Overall, I thought everyone did a great job, really.  With whatever method you all chose, climatology, the LRC, gut, etc.... there were some pretty good forecasts, for 50 days out.

Gary 

Gary, your total was not too far off from GaryB.  Nice work.

This second cool shot of air killed me...I had it cool at the beginning but thought this second front would wash out, leaving us more warm and humid near the end. O well, I'm glad to be wrong about nice weather.

Hey Scott, I resemble that remark!

Rick, your forecast was not that far off.  I don't think the cycle is to blame but more the other factoring you did for seasonal norms.

If I hadn't hosed up the first day as badly as I did, I would have done MUCH better.

I think Rdub had the most complete forecast.  Short of the ending, it looked very good.

All said, had Gary Lezak done a 56 day forecast instead of a 52, I think he would have won.  [I have to do the math, but think it would be very close]

This has been commented on in the link Notes lists above.

Notes, as far as the short term...I will get killed on that..I will try, though.  I am not as strong in this area for model forecasting.  I am a long range guy...but I will try it out.  

I would like to get better at that.  As everyone knows ,  I need it

Sun just arrived in Lawrence, and as to this mornings radar event...well it only amounted to thunder and sprinkles.

And on the temp side we are still at a very comfortable 77 which is the current high for the day...which is not to shabby for the 5th of July.

*****************

Thanks for the update.  Those morning storms put a lot of clouds across the area...skies are generally clear now and temps should still make the low 80s.  I think the 6th of July should bring the heat back:)

Jeremy

Received 0.14" of rain over on the East side of Lawrence. That's 0.87" of rain for the month. 07/02- 0.02", 07/03- 0.71".

***************

Thanks for the report.  Looks like you missed the really heavy stuff the other night.  Next best chance will come on Tuesday.

Jeremy