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OK.Im not happy about the rain at all. We've had so much my backyar's grass is brown like it should be in Febuary!

22 of 27 - true, but deceptive a bit...most of those days were less than 5 degrees less than normal.  That is to say that the high/low temps were no more than 2.5 degrees each off normal.

************** Still below average temps this summer and above average for precipitation. Also, January and June have been the only months to have above average temperatures...0.6 and 0.2 respectively. Overall I would say this has been a cool and wet year. Jeremy

Scott, does that mean it doesn't count?  If the Chiefs are 7-9 this season (if they're lucky), does that mean they don't have a losing season?  Just one more game won and they would be .500. ****************** Good point:) Jeremy

Scott, I guess I should say that if all 30 days averaged 4.5 degrees below normal, the month would have a 4.5-degree below average.  Would you consider the month "not below average"?

hope everybody had a good Fourth and weekend of, it was one of the most comfortable Fourths I can remember!!  Well the humidity is back today with lots of high clouds from the storms to the north.

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You are a county or two away from a few rain showers.  Looks like they should stay north.

Jeremy

i dont think scott is arguing that it hasnt been a below normal summer temp wise...as of 1400 today, we have only hit 90 degrees once since the very beginning of october.  thats crazy.  9 months.

the above average rainfall is the deceptive part to me...as we have not been getting nearly the rainfall hear nw of the city as many have...even compared to KCI.  i registered 1.12" of rain with the last storm.  thats the most i have gotten at once since early may.  kci reported a whopping 3" from that storm.  we arent 'droughtish' by any means, but we are definitely behind the curve rainfall wise.

KCI hits 90+ degrees on average 44 times each summer.  something tells me we fall short of that...the next 3 weeks will likely dictate the rest of the summer temp wise.  i just hope we dont hit 100(avg. 4 times every summer at kci)

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Today made day number 2 of 90s at KCI.  I think overall KCI and some areas just north of there have been the driest spots this year...and even then it has been average to a little above average.  I'm sure July will get back close to average tempwise in the next week or so.

Jeremy

it just may be me, mattp....but for analytical reasons, i personally consider avg. temps that fall between +.5 through -.5 to be 'about average'.  centralop brought up a good chart back in the fall that showed yearly SST anomalies for the past several decades, and it categorized the previously mentioned range to be average.  for conversational purposes a year that ended up +.2* is still above avg, but certainly 'about average' in the long term.  

Hi Jeremy- hope all is well- I have been unable to check in for the last several day- was doing a little vacationing- I even missed the big rains last week. My lawn is needing a drink- wow how things can change- Hope everyone had a great holiday weekend..Hopefully we will get that shot of rain.......looking forward to seeing your new set- sounds kinda cool. Have a great day!

JP

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Our current set will be no longer by tomorrow afternoon.  I think the new set will debut around the start of the Olympics.  It should be exciting!

Jeremy

Now this feels like July! Hay season is underway! Although, I really did enjoy the 4th weather. Any cooler weather coming our way again? Lower dewpoints would be nice next weekend since putting up more hay - any chance of that??

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I think lower dew points are possible next Sunday if the cold front drops to our south.  The storms looks pretty strong over the upper Midwest next weekend. 

Jeremy

Well sheesh! My car thermometer said it was 100 DEGREES! So it probaly got to 95-99 DEGREES! HOT!!!!

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93 at KCI today and 94 downtown.

Jeremy

Of all the days we pick to do serious yard work, we pick today, geesh! I trimmed some bushes, pulled some weeds and watered the veggie garden while the husband mowed the lawn on the riding lawn mower. My shirt was soaked and my pulse was elevated. The heat and humidity just takes it out of you, and it is not even as humid as it can be. crazy. I guess I need to go back to doing yard work in the early morning when it is cooler. I blame the humidity on a lot of it. The heat I am used to coming from Southern California (northern Los Angels area).
Audra

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Audra,

Take it easy on days like today!  The heat index was around 100-105 during the afternoon.

Jeremy

MattP, there is always a battle here regarding perception and reality, and how reality/perception is presented to make a point.

Forecast validation works sometimes at KMCI, or sometimes just south of town, or sometimes somewhere else when it fits.

I am not singling out Jeremy or Gary specifically, but look back through the past blog entries and see how it was...." it happened just south" , or "it was a tough forecast and was off 6 degree" or "I was the one with the closest precip for the week"

[nevermind the wrong days and wrong amounts] -LOL

Its always something.

I will battle and continue to battle this perception.  I think using anomalies beyond 5 degrees is fair in presenting a colder or hotter than average.

The average person would not even notice a day with -1 anomaly for temperatures, but I assure you here a forecaster will say it is cooler than normal to verify a forecast.

I have always thought that if you are going for cooler or warmer, it should be something that is noticeable, otherwise, it is just posturing.

Before the onslaught. I have been guilty of this myself in the past.  I try not to do it anymore, but certainly am aware when I see it done.

As far as Chiefs, um..sure all games matter as there is a reward for the record.  Also, it is only 16 games.  Tell me how this relates to verifying a forecast with no tangible reward with no end period?  Or...really..how it relates at all?

;-) - I understand where you are coming from but I get tweaked sometimes when I see the posturing.

The forecast for this summer was put out as wetter and colder than normal...I am positive if it is warmer and dryer, that the forecast will somehow be presented to verify...

Maybe in Iowa, that is kinda close, huh?

"Still below average temps this summer and above average for precipitation"

For the record, per KMCI, [which is where Weatherate and everyone else uses for validation], it was above normal temps and below normal precip in June.

Include July thus far, yes..it is above average for rain...nice job in the long range forecast for the summer pinning down July 2nd in the evening.

The LRC is even better than I thought!

;-)

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Scott,

I just searched through the NWS climate page at KCI, St. Joseph, JC Executive Airport and all the other sites that are available.  All that had temperature data compared to averages had temperatures below average this winter, spring, and summer.  Also, precipitation has been above average at all the listed sites.

I guess I don't see why my facts from earlier today made you say we pick and choose how we verify a forecast.  Seems like any short/long range forecasts for this year made by our weather team have been very accurate...not perfect...but very accurate.

Jeremy

Scott, I was referring to the same use of numbers.  Saying that counting numbers if they're not within five degrees is "deceptive", is a little ludicrous.  Remember, if you were talking about a handful of days, that would be one thing.  But 22 out of 27 is over 75 percent.  That's a decent sample size.

looks like nbc universal bought The Weather Channel. I bet you will just love to have them on board gary. haha

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I'm wondering if this may not be a bad thing.  Maybe down the road WxPlus and the Weather Channel will join into just one channel.  Hopefully the local weather people can take care of the local on the 8's.  The forecast would be better than the one that is based off one model that is currently used with no person analyzing the data. 

Also, if the Weather Channel starts putting the NBC peacock on the air and the branding is done a different way it may help local NBC affiliates around the country.   Just a thought.

Jeremy

yeah jeremy I do see your point about the local on the 8s. and ur right it would be much better handled by the local weather station. So do you know if they are going to change their name?

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I don't think anything will change in the short term(month or so).  But I could see some changes in the 6-12+ month range. 

Jeremy

well, jeremy, we are getting to the slow part of the year weather wise...if i remember correctly...these were the more turbulent times of the year on the blog because there was little going on to talk about.  may want to put on your zebra shirt because it seems like scott is going to throw the first blows ;)

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Maybe the heat was getting to him today:)

Jeremy

My hubby said he saw a ball of fire going across the sky a while ago....anyone else see this?

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Fireworks?  I looked on some of the sky/space websites and couldn't find any small meteor showers going on right now.  There are some later this month. 

Jeremy

pvt_murphy said:
i dont think scott is arguing.......

I think he is. It sure seems like he enjoys taking shots even though he says LOL after everything. Scott you make some really good posts but sometimes you seem kinda nit picky like you just have to clunk on the weather team. I mean, aren't they like, the ones trained in this and have degrees?

maybe it was jerry lee lewis Bewild. :)

Ahhh...

No, I am not picking a fight for the sake of it.  First, Jeremy - it wasn't your post specifically that got my ire.  In fact, I apologize for sharing it here.

My frustration comes from the fact of sometimes-when convenient- using KMCI for data, while other times, dismissing it all together and picking somewhere else as it doesn't fit a specific forecast.

This blog was not doing this, and I read too much into it.  For that I do feel bad for offloading.

That said, Matt - you and I will disagree.  I see where you are going, but honestly, to me a "cool" forecast is one that is easily noted - not 1 degree off the high..this is especially true when presented by the media.  For this point, I am specifically referring to the "cool wet" summer that Gary put out for Summer.

If he meant normal with a hair above/below average, I would have nothing to complain about..but should the temps end up .1 degrees below normal, he will claim accuracy when in fact, it won't mean a hill of beans to the common public.

Whilrlygirl, I do state my opinions.  And it is not personal.  It is directed to a point of view or to a thought.  Nothing personal against Gary or Jeremy.  They both have interacted enough with me to know where I am coming from.  They are big boys.

I love the "degree" clause.  First, having a degree does not guarantee anything.  Lest I remind folks where Gary ended up in the long range forecasting contest.

Second, I work with - and suspect many work with - folks that do a damn good job in what they do without a "degree" in the field.

This team does a great job.  No doubt about it...but think it could be better.  Should we want a blog with only compliments, then lets hear them speak that.

Night night.  

Oh..wait...

LOL

lol whirlygirl!!  No he said it was not fireworks jeremy.   He said he saw it in claycomo.  I told him I have seen shooting stars come down far into the atmosphere and make it look like a ball of fire.  I would guess that is what it was but he thinks I am wierd lol
Becky

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Meteors can happen at anytime...so that is probably what you saw.

Jeremy

bewild I saw a meteor thursday night it was not a firework it was falling from the sky to the ground so maybe it's just space junk or something.

just remember, im on your side scott...just dont let me end up at the bottom of the missouri river downstream somewhere...

jk

I cant wait for snow to be back. Hopefully we get a big blizzard like u said this year. XD

at what point in august do the perseid(sp) showers occur? isnt it around the third week or so?

amazing.

Pvt reported just over an inch last storm, at the fort.

In Leavenworth we recieved close to 4 inches.
major flooding was taking place.

Beautiful and absolutely perfect holiday weekend.  No rain, all sunshine and warm, couldn't ask for anything else.  I spent the entire day outside yesterday, working in the yard, reading the paper, anything I could do to just stay outside.  It will be hard to go back to work today and not be able to get out in the sun.  I'm dreading Tuesday's rain but having had such a nice weekend it will be tolerable.  Harvest in North Central Kansas (my hometown area) is booming, record breaking crops are making up for all the poor crops due to too much rain over the past few years.  It's nice to see the farmers getting a break, they deserve it.  Have a great day everyone.  Enjoy!

Gary:

Good summer morning to you sir!!! For sure, it feels like a Kansas July morning outside this morning!!!! I hope you, Jeremy, Brett, and Jeff had a great holiday and that you had a great trip to Boulder!!

Been a while as we have just returned from a week at Lone Star and am just kind of getting back into reality-but not for too long-heading back out later this week!!!!

Per my normal mantra just a few random thoughts this morning:

1. Satellite imagery is interesting this morning as it really looks like a summer image with all of the storms heading up and over the top of the ridge that I think is located around Eastern Oklahoma-I thought that there has to be one and looking at the 9Z RUC it appears at initialization that there is a 500 height high. However, it does not appear to be the classic one that sits over Oklahoma for days and days-it even appears to be weakening as we speak.


2. With one in mind, I think Tuesday into Wednesday morning will be interesting to watch. Will the front actually make it down here? The GFS for the past few runs has began to show that it will indeed clear the area and even has dew points dropping to around 60 or even a bit lower after it passes. One would think that it being the second week of July that the front would have trouble clearing this area. However, in this years LRC, the fronts have cleared and had some punch. I mean that front that came through what around June 28th or so if it had been in January wow-that had some punch.


3. It also appears on the surface charts that the front is beginning to take some shape this morning to our North.


Just some random things this morning-I hope they at least make a bit of sense LOL!!!
Have a great day-it is for sure going to feel like summer today-Hot Times Summer in the City…

As always thanks for reading and again, have a great day!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Good morning to you too!  The LRC is still going, in a very weakened state.  The pattern is battling summer, and summer is trying to win.  Let's see if this front gets here tonight.

Gary