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Gary, please forgive me if you've covered this question in a previous blog ( Can't remember if you did or not ), but what year(s) has Kansas City had the coolest summer on record?  I seem to remember a summer that had so many cool days that my kids could not go swimming very much! Anyway, thanks in advance if you get a chance to answer this question- I realize things are hectic at the studio!  Can't wait to see the new set!  Dea

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Dea,

We will work on this answer.  I haven't had a chance to look it up.

Gary

CONGRATULTIONS to MIKE L for taking home the top spot in the First Annual Kansas City Long-Range Independence Day Week-Long Forecast Competition!  

Below are the FINAL STANDINGS from the Independence Day Forecast Competition (remember:  Low score = more accurate forecast).

1.  MikeL................65.1
2.  LSGolfer...........73.85
3.  Scott................87.85
4.  Notes................87.85
5.  RDub.................88.6
6.  RickMcKc...........91.75
7.  Gary Lezak........93.55
8.  BellGolf.............96.45
9.  GaryB...............130.9

The statistical tie between Scott and I was broken by the Probability of Precipition (PoP) forecasts we had submitted but not included in the verification/scoring...his were closer to the actual than mine, thus he lands a spot higher than me on the standings.

Many have indicated interest in either a replication of this competition setup for Labor Day week/end or some other type of forecasting competition...a few threads are already going strong discussing the merits of all possible options and what we should tackle next.  I'm open to any and all new ideas people may have on how to improve the concept for the next time around.  Feel free to participate:
http://www.notesinthemargin.com/phpBB3/viewforum.php?f=5

Thanks to all who participated...I think this was incredibly successful and educational for all involved.

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Notes,

I will consider making a forecast for the first week of September, as I would just be making more of a climatology forecast.  The LRC is likely in transition, but not for sure, at that time.  If everyone does one, I would consider doing it, and maybe base it on my assumption that the LRC is continuing in a strengthening jet stream situation.  So, I guess it could still be fun. 

Congratulations to Mike L, that was really a great forecast, and you really beat everyone by quite a good margin.  I am glad that many of you tried to incorporate the LRC into the forecast. 

Gary

Good Monday Morning, Gary,

Thanks for explaining the difference between average and normal.

We will look forward to seeing all of the progress of installing your new set!

Edna

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Edna,

Today begins a crazy few weeks of construction in the studio!

Gary

Good morning Gary, my weekend is finally here.  Hope everyone had a great weekend.  I was checking out the U.S. water vapor satellite loop and noticed the absence of any dominating anticyclonic flow pattern across the country.  There appears to be a bit of anticyclonic flow centered near the ArkLaTex region, but it is very weak and localized.  There is a definite ridge in the westerlies over the central U.S., hence our hotter weather, but there really is not any well-defined easterly flow on the south side of this ridge, just a series of troughs and upper level lows.  Is this lack of a large, strong anticyclone predicted by this year's LRC setup?  Perhaps after the current LRC has faded a stronger anticyclone may develop in August?

Bertha is now the first hurricane of this tropical season and the NHC has Bermuda squarely in the middle of its "cone of uncertainty" for Bertha's position by this Saturday.  A lot can change between now and then though.

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Yes, good points.  The anticyclone has had trouble setting up. But, based on the LRC there is a good chance of a middle of the nation high sometime this month.  I doubt it will last long though, but it is timed for the hottest time of the year.  I will talk about it in more detail later today, or tomorrow in the blog.

Gary

Who can give me a link with a infarared stattalite of Hurricane Bertha, I like the shape of hurricanes!

lvstormspotter, the storm early in the month built right on top of us, and then exploded just south of us...we were just on the northern fringe of it i guess.

Bertha satellite view link:  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

juba,

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm2/floater2_large_animated.html

this one takes a minute to load, but its worth it!:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

here is the still image:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

As one can see, Bertha is developing an eye.  The NHC gives the greatest probability to Bertha not getting any stronger than a category 1 storm, although there is up to a 25% probability that Bertha will become a Cat 2 storm and a 12% probability Bertha will reach Cat 3 strength later this week.  I don't know how accurate their probability forecasts have been historically.

Bertha looks well-developed, with a circular, symmetrical eye located near the center of the Central Dense Overcast ("CDO").  I bet Bertha's top winds will be raised from the current 75 mph in the next advisory.

Bertha appears to have decent outflow, although it might be somewhat suppressed on the southeast side of the circulation due to the strong easterly flow the storm is currently in.

I see the 5 day track for Hurricane Bertha from NOAA has this thing making a strong arc towards the North and it would appear to completely miss the US mainland.  I'm curious if anyone knows how accurate these tracks are historically and if there's much of a chance for this thing to head in a more easterly direction?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/084515.shtml?5day?large#contents

Ahh..tropical discussions..

It has been awhile - Gary can remember back when I first started participating in this blog that I would go on and on about the tropics.  I spent years researching the tropics prior to mainland weather.

Let me tell you, as a budding enthusiast, learning the tropics first is a great experience, but can screw you up too...LOL - I thought for a LONG time that sheer was bad for ALL developing storms.

The mechanics are so different, that without the baseline knowledge, it is hard to dissern between the different types of storms - cold core/warm core/extra tropical/sub tropical/tropical.

It took years to figure it all out in my head...

I have learned.


Notes - I am game for Labor Day.  I will be using the concept I linked in your blog - oddly, it is very similar to what Gary mentioned above - "and maybe base it on my assumption that the LRC is continuing in a strengthening jet stream situation"

I am amazed.  I am very encouraged to see Gary even imagining that the new cycle doesn't abruptly end and magically a new one starts later, but maybe it is more of a transition.

I love the ongoing discovery of what this theory may bring.  It has evolved quite a bit in even the last three years!

As far as the contest, congrats Mike L.  I have to admit, I think Rdub's forecast was the strongest, while not the most accurate.  Short of missing on a day at the end, it was VERY GOOD both in detail and sequence.

I will adopt this style for my next forecast.  Or - I could just forecast to the rules and have a better shot to win....decisions decisions.

Last thought - Gary, thank you for the discussion on normal/average.

nastyweather, long-range course predictions for tropical systems become less and less reliable the farther out in time one goes.  That's a reason why the forecast track or cone widens with time.  All weather forecasts, even extratropical forecasts such as those around Kansas City, have an increasing margin of error as one goes out in time.  (Except, it seems, for the intrepid souls who dared to forecast the July 4th weekend weather WAYYYY in advance, congratulations to MikeL for being the most accurate and to all participants for having the fortitude to put it out there!!!)  To be honest, I would be extremely surprised if Bertha makes a direct hit on Bermuda on Saturday as the forecast track seems to indicate it could.  Let's just see how the forecast track cone evolves over the course of the week, and remember that now, on Monday morning, the NHC had the storm close to Bermuda on Saturday.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

This is a great site to discuss the tropics and have questions answered. In general track forecasts are much more accurate than intensity forecasts.

Scott, you've been studying storms for so long, maybe it's time to spell "shear" correctly... But thanks for the props on the forecast, although I think I did miss it at the end. I just thought there was no way we'd really get 2 cold fronts make it through in 1 week of June/July. I thought the second one would hang up and we'd end up on the warm side. I think July 4th morning low was the lowest in over 10 years.

The new advisory on Bertha has top sustained winds now at 90 mph.

Didn't you just do a new set about 3 years ago? Isn't that when the round glass desk was in?

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It's actually been 8 years!

Gary

notes-i am also game for a labor day forecast. i plan to put some effort in my forecast. i had too many distractions going on for the 4th forecast. should we keep precip in the forecast? or should we change somethings?

seds - one saving grace for long term mainland forecasting is if you know the event will be in the neighborhood, you likely will catch some of it due to the large area frontal boundaries extend.  

Especially this time of year with the convective nature and the moisture, it doesn't take much to fire it up.

That largely will extend to the tropics as well, but only to the extent that while Bermuda may not take a direct hit, they will likely catch some rain and waves.

Focus on tropical storms is more along the line of direct hits, which does make it MUCH harder to predict - thus the cone of "uncertainty" - I agree with you on this for sure.

Rdub - My appoligees four mizpellen sheer.  i ment to spel it shier.

Gary pointed out long ago my "helocity" error instead of helicity.  Thank goodness I have you two to bring this to my attention.  Ha!

;-)

Which of the regular bloggers out there are degreed meteorologists?  I've often wondered but haven't been able to ascertain the answer with certainty through their postings.  I will tell you that I have never taken a meteorology or atmospheric science course.  I am a geologist by education, although not currently working as one.  What I know about meteorology I have learned over many years of informal education and my own observations of the weather, spanning back to when I was 8 years old and began my first daily weather journal.  In my opinions and postings, I will always defer to a degreed meteorologist.  I should have been a meteorologist, but when decision time came I opted for petroleum geology.  Living in Texas at the time definitely had something to do with the decision.  It's a decision that I now regret.  Meteorology was always my true love, but when it came time to consummate the relationship I left her standing at the altar to be with another science.  I still enjoy geology, however, as a hobby today rather than as a profession.

Changing the subject, what is the current model consensus on how much rain might fall around the Kansas City area tomorrow?  It seems like the potential for another substantial rainfall has dwindled in the past couple of days.

 whirlygirl, as far as I know, the station has had the "old" set since the station came on the air in the 90's. But your right, it does seem like their glass desk has changed.

Thank You for the link RDub and I'll be following Jeff's blog during the Hurricane season now.  I was surprised to see him mention the Hurricane Hunters going to check it out tomorrow, since it's still so far away.  The thing that is so frustrating about tracking Hurricane's is you're always in a "hurry up and wait" mode.

seds - I am not sure I have ever answered this.  I will do it once.

I am NOT a degreed meteorologist.  I have taken classes in meteorology, geology, and oceanography. I have spent too many hours researching both tropical and mainland weather climate and forecasting.

I began participating in this blog in I think 2005 - [back when there was 10 views a day and maybe a week passing before a comment was made]

I grew up in a meteorlogy family with my grandfather working at the National Weather Bureau for 20 odd years.  

I have been deeply researching for the last 7 years.  I continue in plans for further met training via Penn State [though probably not a degree at this point of my life] and have a goal of being a CCM.

While I will use the term hobby, for those who have watched me over the years, it seems to be more of an obsession....

scott, thats where my meteorological interests began too, hailing from FLA, i have spent many many hours studying the atlantic, e. pacific, and w. pacific/indian ocean areas.

kcwxguy, thanks for the frank response.  You are certainly well ahead of me in your meteorology training and research.  Very nice to have a family member who worked at the Weather Bureau.