Good afternoon bloggers,
The weather pattern is still quite fascinating to us in the NBC Action News Forecast Center. The LRC (the weather pattern that set up last October into early November continues), but it is still shifting north. So, far the anticyclone has had very little opportunity to set up over the desert southwest, its preferred position, and is at this moment setting up over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The pattern may become favorable for a larger upper high over the middle of the country later this month, and I am expecting it before the end of July. This will be our most likely time to have a heat wave this summer, right when we are supposed to be the hottest. We will have more on these developments soon.
In the mean time, there is a set-up somewhat similar to last Wednesday developing for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Look below at the two maps:
This map above, valid at 7 PM Tuesday, shows the two anticyclones over the oceans. At this time of the year, the most likely spot for the upper high to be located is over the heat of the desert southwest. When this sets up, near the 4 corners, then the summer monsoon can bring thunderstorms to Arizona, Nevada, the deserts and mountains of Southern California, as moisture rotates around the upper high. But, this can't happen with the current set up. So, the summer monsoon is late this year because of the LRC we are still experiencing.
Also, notice the red circled area. I circled our region to show the trough of vorticity stretching from the black X over northeastern Missouri, to near KCI airport, to the black X over northern Kansas. This is valid at 7 PM Tuesday. A very weak cold front will be sitting just north of Kansas City Tuesday. This set-up is quite similar and somewhat related to what happened last Wednesday, when 7 inches of rain fell in Parkville. Someone could get too much rain again in the next 36 hours. Look at the precipitation forecast from the latest GFS below:
This will, once again, be something that we have to NOWCAST during the day on Tuesday. Our NBC Action News Weather team will be keeping you updated as this approaches.
Hurricane Bertha has formed over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Here is a picture below:
Bertha will likely stay out at sea and curve north towards Bermuda. We will track it with you over the next few days, and we will show a satellite movie of Bertha on our weathercasts tonight.
It is a hot one out there. Have a great start to your week. We will answer your questions as time permits. Our news set is about to be taken out, and we will likely have many distractions this week. The brand new NBC Action News set and Forecast Center will begin construction within the next week or two, to be completed before the Olympics are on NBC next month.
Gary