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TOUGH FORECAST

Well, the little hair Gary has left has been pulled out as we are facing a tough forecast for Friday morning.  The new NAM has just come out suggesting that showers & T-Storms will explode from Wichita to Topeka by midnight.  The NAM then says they head right along I-35 bringing our area significant rain 3-10 AM Friday.  The tough part is, as I am wrting this blog there is no evidence of this occurring.  There are parameters showing up that would suggest explosive development is possible.  There is plenty of moisture, a wave is heading this way from western Kansas & the low-level jet will be rather strong overnight.  So, it is something we will have to watch closely as the evening wears on.  Does anybody have a feeling on what might happen?  Be sure to watch NBC Action News tonight at 10 PM for our final decision.

Jeff

Published Thursday, July 10, 2008 8:59 PM by Jeremy WxPlus

Comments

 

Turd Fergenson said:

Rain Misses to our NW

-------------

That's an interesting solution.

Gary

July 10, 2008 9:17 PM
 

Luthur said:

"The tough part is, as I am wrting this blog there is no evidence of this occurring. "

I'm not trying to be difficult, but if the NAM is suggesting that, then isn't there at least some evidence?  Are all the other models completely against this happening?  No intention of insult here, just trying to clarify.  I know you guys are dealing with the destruction and construction of the new set.

-----------------

Yes, I agree with you. The NAM is some evidence, but, at this moment the sky is clear.  We will be going outside in a few minutes to see if there are any altocumulus clouds forming, usually a strong sign.

Gary

July 10, 2008 9:28 PM
 

EdRoberts said:

I agree Jeff. A very difficult forecast. The 0Z soundings don't show much isentropic lift, and looking at WV imagery, you'd think the chance of rain would be nil with all the substance in place. Yet with the low level jet kicking up to around 45 kts overnight, it's certainly possible.

My thoughts are that whatever forms would likely stay west of the city... maybe move across NE KS and NW MO (which would keep it generally within the 850mb theta-e ridge.. It looks like the RUC supports this as well.

-----------------

Ed,

We just went outside, and there is one mid-level cloud.  That's it.  So, we will keep the chance of rain around 40%.  The forecast for Friday night is also tough.  Thanks for your thoughts.

Gary

July 10, 2008 9:44 PM
 

mljacobs said:

Surely you will all think I am crazy, but my cat is hiding in the bathroom, a sure sign that storms are coming. Honestly!
July 10, 2008 9:47 PM
 

WycoSpotter said:

.04 here at 130th and State Avenue for my rainfall total today. Nice little thunderstorm this afternoon here in my part of the metro. Stepping outside I see NO cloud development!
July 10, 2008 9:53 PM
 

WycoSpotter said:

Must be a wild night over at Capital Federal Park at Sandstone, I have seen 6 ambulances come out of the park tonight during the 311 concert.
July 10, 2008 9:56 PM
 

Matt P said:

Gary, here's something pretty wild to go along with your comments from the other day.  You said that rain was falling at the rate of four inches per hour.  From a snow-lover's perspective, that's roughly 32 inches per hour.  I've seen it snow at eight inches per hour and that was incredible.  I can't imagine seeing snow fall at over two feet per hour.
  I was caught in the deluge and the rain and hail was extremely loud on top of the car.  The roads were ponding, and I tried to avoid any roads that had trees along side of them for fear of winds possibly toppling them.  It was amazing.
 Keep up the good work!
July 10, 2008 10:22 PM
 

Luthur said:

"WycoSpotter said:
Must be a wild night over at Capital Federal Park at Sandstone, I have seen 6 ambulances come out of the park tonight during the 311 concert."

Too many young kids doing too many wrong things.   I hope all is ok.

--

It is a really nice night out.  Humidity appears to be way down. It is almost cool, I dare say.  Not sure how or where these storms may come from, but a nice steady rain would be appreciated.  
July 10, 2008 10:29 PM
 

Luthur said:

"I can't imagine seeing snow fall at over two feet per hour"

That would be fun to see.  However, around here and most anywhere, there wouldn't be that much moisture to work with in the winter.
July 10, 2008 10:31 PM
 

jstonemo said:

I just went outside to put chlorine in my pool and looked at the sky. The moon is partially hidden and I see altocumulus clouds almost overhead and to the south of me in Greenwood.
July 10, 2008 10:55 PM
 

BrianJayhawk said:

This afternoon in Lawrence when that single cell thunderstorm moved through(3:30 ish) it was bizziar.  The rain was pouring down, but up and to the west there was perfect blue sky and sun.  It did make a mess of 6th street for those of you who know Lawrence.

Just looked out my window facing west and not a cloud in the sky.

-Brian
July 10, 2008 10:57 PM
 

bewild79 said:

I missed the forcast can someone fill me in?
July 10, 2008 11:06 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Brian, it was the same here in Lecompton, I thought it was awesome looking.

I am staying at my aunts house in Lecompton, and I am seeing clouds to the SW (I think its SW).

Alex from Marceline
July 10, 2008 11:16 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Brian, it was the same here in Lecompton, I thought it was awesome looking.

I am staying at my aunts house in Lecompton, and I am seeing clouds to the SW (I think its SW).

Alex from Marceline
July 10, 2008 11:16 PM
 

BrianJayhawk said:

Its very posible. I have a good view of west and north west. I have trees and my apartment building blocking the south.

-Brian
July 10, 2008 11:26 PM
 

StormWyndd said:

I don't know about the clouds, but it is still Thursday, so yep, it could rain tonight :)
July 10, 2008 11:31 PM
 

bewild79 said:

i guess everyone went to bed...if not, what was the forcast, I missed it. thanks
July 11, 2008 12:19 AM
 

lezakEF5 said:

There is a shower NW of Witchita, could be something???? Or could be nothing????

Alex from Marceline
July 11, 2008 1:08 AM
 

lezakEF5 said:

NE** of Witchita, not NW =]
July 11, 2008 1:09 AM
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