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Great rumbles of thunder and light showers in La Cygne. Great book reading weather.

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You may see a soggy day.  Still lots of showers to your west.

Jeremy

a few sprinkles in South Lees Summit

Dog and I went out for a walk around 7:45- forgot to take the umbrella.  Hadn't gone very far and we got poured on- just for a few minutes and then it was over.  Sure is muggy out there right now- can't wait for the lower dew-points!   Dea at 68th Terr. and Oak

HOLA all! lol just had a question regarding today:

Me and a group of friends are going to Worlds of Fun... around 11ish to spend the whole afternoon there.... how long will we get rained on?

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You didn't watch the news this morning?  I mentioned in KC thru probably mid afternoon there will be rain around.  Maybe in late afternoon or evening for areas south of I-70.  Expect showers, clouds, and kind of a cool day.

Jeremy

I guess from last night, Gary and I split the difference on high temp.  80/82

Nice day all in all..I much prefer this to 95 humid and sunny.

Sunny, cool in the upper 60s and low dewpoints would be ideal...guess I will head north for the summer.

LOL

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Scott,

We made the right call!  We went for the rain big time last night, but this is still impressive.  Jeff and I talked about it being in the 60s this afternoon.  What an interesting day!  I love it!

Gary

Very heavy rain in western Shawnee but no thunder :(

Pouring at 135th and Quivira

Man, I was ready for a good pool day.  Its always hot during the week.  We barely got our ballgame in this morning.  Darn guess I have to go grocery shopping now. *************** Better plan more than just grocery shopping...this rain will last a while! Jeremy

Son just texted me and said power was out at Price Chopper in Brookside- don't know if it's weather-related or not- we haven't seemed to have much lightening in the area.  dea

WOW -- 3/4 inch and still falling -- hard.

.35" so far...

61.9 degrees at the fort! isnt it the middle of july?

Steady downpour here in Brookside area. More thunder and lightening now.  Son's not sure if power is out other places or just at Price Chopper.    Wow!!!  It's REALLY raining hard now!!  Dea

Son just texted and said power is out in Brookside.  Still raining very hard!  Dea

2 inches of rain so far at 135th and quivira

Seems the mid level vort did make itself known in this setup...

Cool.  All in all, nice day and a good forecast.

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Thanks Scott.  Today is a rare rainy summer day!

Gary

So did you make it to the car show today Gary?  We were goiing to head over but decided not to due to the rain.  

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I may go later in the day, but this is not a good day for an outdoor event. 

Gary

Good day for research.

Question, Gary...do you contend that this year's pattern is strictly defined by the longwave axis through eastern MO?  Or is that just one of the prominent features within the cycle?

This is evident through the Great Lakes NW flow that we have seen recur does not seem constant through the other aspects each cycle?

Whatcha think?  

Looked at the studio cam..is there anyone even there right now? **************** No. They will begin work again Monday at 7 a.m. Jeremy

car show??? where??? My kids love car shows and for that matter so do I.   Its still raining here but heck what's a little water when you have classic cars to look at.

Jeremy as of 12 noon I had .90 at 152 and Amity ************** Thanks for the report! Feel free to send an update later. Jeremy

Jeremy as of noon we have 0.53" of rain in central Jefferson County KS and it is still raining.  Our temp has dropped to 66, winds were out of the north at 9 dewpoint is 59.

Gary, I noticed the title on your blog the other day -- "NBC buys the Weather Channel & morning showers".  No wonder you're No. 1.  You own the morning showers and can tell them when to fall.  Is that how you do it?  Can you also buy the winter storms? LOL!!!  Have a great day!

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Now you know our secret. LOL

Gary

I am absolutely loving these temps right now!!  Can I please order up more of the same for the rest of the summer!!  Wish, wish, wish, wish....! ***************** Days like this don't come along very often in July. Temps in the 60s during peak heating...enjoy this...it won't last:) Jeremy

Back by popular demand:  the next round of the holiday forecasting competition.  This time:  Labor Day Week.  I agree with several people around here at the ones for Thanksgiving and Christmas will likely be much more fun/interesting, but for those who want to get their feet wet in the game, this is the perfect chance.  We're still tweeking all the competition rules, and I think with each round, the competition is getting a little better.  

I already have some ideas of what we could do to make it even better next time.  Additionally, I think a shorter-range game (not forecasting 45-days out...but rather for the upcoming several days during holiday weeks) would be much more fun...but I digress.

In the interest of getting this Labor Day competition off the ground, here is the text of the thread that has begun on the forum [http://www.notesinthemargin.com/phpBB3/viewforum.php?f=5]:

Same verification rules as last time, with two primary exceptions: PoPs *WILL* be included - you must include "probability of precipitation" for each forecasting day (see below for full explanation) and precip amounts will be multiplied by 10 instead of 5 to make the precip forecast more heavily weighted in the overall scoring setup.

Let's try to do away with the "well, the verification setup didn't suit my forecast very well" claims that were all too prevalent *after* the forecast competition started last time. Considering all guidelines were spelled out prior to the beginning of the game, I think we all know how weak those claims are.

If you don't like the verification setup (which, just like last time, is clearly delineated and announced BEFORE the game even starts!) then why participate? I think I speak for many of us when I say that I'd rather you sit this one out than whine about how "well it rained within 50 miles" or other such sad claims after-the-fact.

By posting a forecast in this competition, you are agreeing to the following rules:

Competition Rules:
1. Forecast competition spans one full calendar week to included Labor Day. The forecast competition dates are Tuesday, August 26th, 2008 through Monday, September 1st, 2008, inclusive.

2. Each competitor will forecast four variables for each of the seven 24-hour periods, as verified against the actual totals at KMCI (Kansas City International Airport):
----High Temp for the 24-hour period
----Low Temp for the 24-hour period
----Probability of Precipition (in percent) from 0% to 100% for the 24-hour period
----Preciitation Amount in hundredths for the 24-hour period

3. Forecast verification & scoring will be based on each forecast versus the actual totals (not versus consensus, although consensus scores will also be tallied).

4. For temperature scoring, each temperature forecast will be verified against the actual values and error points assessed, one error point per temperature degree error.

5. For Probability of Precipitation ("PoP") forecasting, each PoP value will be validated against the actual (keep in mind, actual values will only be 0% - no precip - or 100% - precip was recorded). Measurable precipitation is defined as precipitation which amounts to at least .01 inch. A trace ("TR") of precipitation does not count. Also important to note: the forecast is made in tens of percent:

* So, if you think that there is a 10% chance of measurable precipitation, select a "1" in the "PoP".
* If you think there is a 20% chance, write a "2", etc.
* If you don't think there is any chance, write a "0".
* If you think there is a 100% chance, write "10".
* If KMCI does get measurable precipitation, the verification is "10". If KMCI gets either a trace or stays dry, then verification is "0".

6. Precipitation amount forecasts will be verified against the total that falls at KMCI during the 24-hour period. The difference between the forecast and actual values will be multiplied by 10 to weight precipitation appropriately. Thus if a forecast calls for 0.25" of rain but 0.45" falls at KMCI that day, the forecaster will earn (0.45"-0.25")x10 = 2 error point for that forecast period.

7. Each forecaster's final score will simply consist of a cumulative total of the points earned over the seven days. The more accurate forecast = lower score.

Example Forecast:

Tuesday, 08/26:
H: 88
L: 65
PoP: 10%
Amt: 0.10"

Wednesday, 08/27:
H: 83
L: 72
PoP: 0%
Amt: 0.00"

...and so on. Forecast all the way through Labor Day, Monday, September 1st.

You may submit your forecast in one of two ways:
1. Post a reply to the thread on the NITM forum with your full forecast:
http://www.notesinthemargin.com/phpBB3/viewforum.php?f=5

2. Send it to me via a Private Message "PM" through either forum. If you choose to send your forecast to me via a Private Message (PM), I will post it publicly on the NITM board after the deadline.

All forecasts must be posted to the NITM forum [http://www.notesinthemargin.com/phpBB3/viewforum.php?f=5] or sent to me via PM (if you prefer not to make forecast public prior to the deadline) no later than Friday, July 18th at 7pm local time CDT (07/19/08 00z).

Note: Time stamps on the forecast competition board are in UTC (Z) time - so your reply in this thread must be posted by July 19th at 12:00am (12-midnight) which is 7pm local time (CDT).

Questions/comments/concerns - either reply to the forecast thread or PM me.

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Notes,

I agree with you on forecasting for about the next week or two.  I am not going to participate in the Labor Day forecast as I am just not certain about my theory working for that time frame?  And, I know it won't work 45 days before Thanksgiving.  If you do believe in the LRC, then forecasting that far out before November 15th or, more like December 1st, is just not reliable.  I know this is just for fun, so have some fun with it everyone. 

Our contest that our weather team will be holding will begin tomorrow.  We will let you know in the morning on how to participate.

Gary

Jeremy, I want you in this forecast contest this time.

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Doubtful:)

Wow, Gary.

Does this mean we don't get "its amazing", "why can't you see it" or such until November 15th?  Do we need to put a hold on the T-shirts?

I am not sure I can make it that long!  LOL

All kidding aside, you spent 15 minutes on the last contest and it is just for fun..why not do it again?  Maybe we all can learn something if there is a way to use the LRC for this forecast period?

.78" so far 2 miles South of Reno.

Hey Jeremy-

What's the weather looking like for the Royals game tonight?  They are having a pregame tailgating party from 4-6 with a 6:10 game.  If we head out around 4, does it look dry?

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There may be a few showers around at 4 p.m., but we should be nearing the back edge at that time.  You may want to put a few paper towels in your pocket when you head in the game.  The seats will be all wet from today's rain.

Jeremy

Brrrrr freezing here in Paola at 62 degrees!!!  Bring back the 90s please!!!  .64" of rain so far here but looks like more is coming in.  Ok, back to my book and the blankets...........
--deb

I've lived in the metro for the last 7 years and do not ever remember having a day like today in July.  Maybe a 3 or so years ago when we had the cool summer.  But in each place that I have lived it has been rare to get any rain from early July through Labor day.  A fall type cool, rainy, drizzly day like today is very rare here in July.

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I would say this is far and away the worst weekend weather day we'll have all summer.  Although I was able to turn the a/c off today...which isn't a bad thing!

Jeremy

Rain is tapering off here near Smithville.  Total so far is 0.875 inches.  Great job with the forecase last night Gary!  Now of we can get two or three more weeks with an inch or so of rain, we'll have the best sweet corn ever.  What a great summer so far!

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If the month ended today KCI would end up above the average July rainfall total for the entire month.  Looks like this should make up for June being a little drier than spots nearby.

Jeremy

The image on ESP is great.  It clearly shows the rotating vort pattern with this rainfall.

Pretty cool.

Looks like the NAM hit this one and the GFS and RUC missed with the location of this vort.

So hard to predict this stuff...had to wait 12hrs out for this one...rogue vorts are tough.

Without the vort, nothing would have really happened today.

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Kind of a strange day.  The rain ended up being widespread.  I think some storms will fire tonight, but probably just south of the viewing area.  Maybe some heavy rain in southeast KS or southern MO.

Jeremy

we got 1 inch exactly.

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Where?

Jeremy

This was a very unusual and neat day with a steady rain that has stopped not to long ago and temps that are in the mid 60's in the middle of the day in July!!  now it is overcast and cool with damp conditions, reminded me more of a fall day than a summer one!  Well I guess it it time to take the dog out for a bit of a walk, been inside most of the day due to the rain.

We've got 0.80 inches here at 143 and Nall

.45" in Shawnee

Jeremy, will we be able to open up the windows tonight?

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I think so.

Tim, I already have my back door open and have had for a couple of hours. I would only close things if the wind blew the rain in if that starts up again.

Just over 0.7" in Western KCK near 123rd & Hollingsworth.

Got some rain in Kingsville but it couldn't have been too much since I didn't hear it on our hard plastic awning!  The sun's out nice now.  I was watching some dumb movie and painting my nails and didn't realize it had rained until I let the dogs out!  Duh.  Guess I should have watched some weather this morning, huh?  

About the next contest - in case I don't see you on the weather in the morning are you going to put it out on the blog tomorrow too?  It's probably gonna be so comoplicated I won't be able to do it!  I thought about entering yours Notes - until I got farther into the rules and I just gave up!  Mind wouldn't be based on anything other than a good guess and other years, so it's probably just as well I don't enter!

Hope everyone's having a nice day!  I'm gonna go wander around otuside!

Laura

I forgot to say my brother and his family are flying in from Chico CA to KY on Tutesday - he said the fires there have been pretty bad.  They haven't evacuated but the kids (5, and 2-1/2 yr twins) haven't been able to play outside.  It's smoky and the air quality is horrible - no one goes out except to go to and from work.  So he's looknig forward to some fresh air!

Jeremy,

We received 0.57" inches of rain over here in East Lawrence. Most we received in awhile.

Ray

1.50" in Kearney

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Thanks...the highest total so far!

Jeremy

Jeremy,

Take that back. 0.59" inches of rain in our neck of the woods, East Lawrence. I think that's it for the rain for today.

Ray

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Thank you to everyone for the rain totals!  Feel free to keep sending them in!

Jeremy

Jeremy, Gary  the sun is out and my new total is an even 1.0 in at 152 and Amity......   MT

I must have been in a strange pocket of precip compared to what I'm seeing here.... only got .18 here in LS near John Knox Village.   But I'm not complaining!  We didn't need any more than that.  And the temperature is heavenly!   Rare, yes, but I would take several of these during the summer. (with some nice warm days in between)

Mary

SW corner of Lawrence checking in, and although we only received .33" of liquid sunshine, it was appreciated.   Hard to say though what was nicer, the rain or a July day spent mostly in the mid-60's.  How Sweet it was.

Bob

Received .30 of rain in Kingsville.

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Thanks for sharing the total!

Jeremy

.5 Inches in La Cygne.

Just got back from a short ride. It is fantastic out there! My old gelding was feeling pretty frisky from the cool weather.... He's 27!

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Thanks for the total.  Enjoy the great weather tonight!

Jeremy