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It is slowly heating up

Good morning bloggers,

The deadline to enter the summer contest is 4 PM today.  Go to the last blog entry to see the rules.

It has only been 90 degrees 3 times all year at KCI, and only 5 days downtown.  And, the hottest temperature has only been 93 at KCI, and 94 downtown.  There have been hotter temperatures over the west and east, but not in the middle of the nation.  Why?  Because of the LRC! 

As we predicted in our summer forecast back in May, I described the "long term" longwave trough that formed in October and early November.  It is still there in a weakened state and centered from just west of the Mississippi River over eastern Missouri extending north through Lake Superior and into Canada, and we believe this is the biggest reason for the lack of a heatwave so far, in the middle of North America.  The upper level flow continues to weaken, and it usually reaches its weakest amount of energy by the end of July or early in August.  Then, it will slowly begin strengthening in late August and September as fall approaches.  This is likely when the LRC falls apart and a new weather pattern begins to evolve, but it isn't until October when next years weather pattern really starts to show itself, or set-up. 

So, here we are having a cooler than average summer, thus far.  But, will it continue?  It is starting to heat up and we may still fall just short of 90 degrees today at KCI.  But, it should go above 90 Wednesday and Thursday.  There is a storm forecast to track into the northern plains by Friday night and Saturday.  This will drag our next cold front into the plains and should creat some MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) activity, and bring us our next chance of thunderstorms, and slightly cooler air.  How far south will this front get?  Every front has made to Kansas City this year, but with the flow aloft continuing to weaken, I am wondering how far south this weekend front will get.  If it gets here and stalls we could get a lot of rain?

We will be tracking these developments on NBC Action News today and tonight.  Our new set will begin construction next week.  They will finish the flooring this week.  It  hasn't been easy for us as all of the computers have had to be moved 3 times already.  We will have to move them two more times before the new set goes in. So, we are lucky that there hasn't been any major problems.  Our engineers are doing a great job staying on top of this.  The Olympics begin on NBC August 8th.  Our new set and Forecast Center will be in and ready for you to share with us before that date! 

Have a fantastic day!  We will try to have an analysis of all of the entries in our summer contest either later today or tomorrow.  The deadline, once again, is 4 PM today, and our weather team will let you know what our entries are later today.

Gary

Published Tuesday, July 15, 2008 6:09 AM by glezak

Comments

 

weatherwunder said:

Good morning, Gary.

It is sure good to be enjoying a respite from the violent, stormy weather we have experienced this season.  Hope everyone has a very pleasant day!

Edna

-----------

Edna,

Yes it is.  Severe weather season abruptly ended right on schedule, around June 15th.  It has been a nice summer so far, with just enough rain, and no horrible heat, so far.

Thanks for entering the contest. Good luck.

Gary

July 15, 2008 6:59 AM
 

JennIrat said:

Good morning Gary,

Just wondering if I can change my guess to 15 days at 90 and keep the high temp at 98.

Thanks
Jennifer

---------------

Jennifer,

To be fair I think we should keep your original guess.  First instincts are usually the best anyway!

Gary

July 15, 2008 7:31 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Good morning....this is a early entry for me. We are late sleepers during the summer in this house. LOL!! Yes this summer has been mild but it has to change....the end of July and August are always soooo hot. Anymore the heat goes into September. The dog days of summer are coming I can feel it!!!!! Have a great day everyone.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS
July 15, 2008 7:50 AM
 

JennIrat said:

Not a problem Gary.  

Jennifer
July 15, 2008 7:55 AM
 

jameskessler said:

Hi Gary,
Here is my guess for the contest.  Going to go on the low side to seperate from the pack.  14 days at 90 or above and a summer hi of 96.
July 15, 2008 7:57 AM
 

cledwards said:

Good morning Gary ...

When was the last time (if ever) that Kansas City went a summer without hitting the century mark?

Thanks,
Cody

---------------

Cody,

It actually happened 7 years in a row during the 1990s. But, that was only at KCI. I believe it hit 100 most of those years downtown. And, I believe it was three years ago when we didn't get above 95 the entire summer at KCI. So, it has happened recently.

Gary

July 15, 2008 8:10 AM
 

kcbrett82 said:

CONTEST ENTRY:  I believe that there will be only 8 days at or above 90 and that it will only reach 97 for the high temp of the year.  
July 15, 2008 8:11 AM
 

stormlover said:

Off the subject but I just finished a great book about tornados.  I would recommend it to anyone.  It's by Nancy Mathis & is called "Storm Warning".  It's about the Oklahoma City tornado but it covers the history of the various storm warning systems & the history of Ted Fujita.  Very good reading!!

--------------

I will have to get this book.

Gary

July 15, 2008 8:25 AM
 

JPnKC said:

Good Morning- I am going with 28 days over 90 and the 100 as the highest temp.

JP



July 15, 2008 8:31 AM
 

akm76m said:

WEATHER CONTEST ENTRY

25 days over 90 degrees and 103 as the highest temp.
July 15, 2008 8:51 AM
 

WEATHERdude said:

haha stormlover, i think im goin after that book also, LOL... weather books do fascinate me!

CONTEST ENTRY:
- 90+ degree days: 18
- Hottest temperature: 100

lol btw, all these contest entries really show us how many bloggers there are! i didnt kno there were a lot, but ive seen some new faces (or in this case names)

BEST OF LUCK TO EVERYONE!
July 15, 2008 8:56 AM
 

VdoManZ said:

Weather Contest Entry:

13 days over 90 and highest temp of 96

Jereme W
July 15, 2008 8:58 AM
 

Tim in West Shawnee said:

24 days >= 90
Max Temp 97

Thanks,
Tim
July 15, 2008 9:48 AM
 

stormlover said:

Gary, the book is excellant.  One of those that once you open the cover you can't put it down!  I learned a lot!  I didn't know the SPC used to be in KC or how recent the meterology (maps, terms, etc) we see on the evening news is.  It's amazing that the weather bureau used to have a ban on the word "tornado" in its forecasts to the public!  Can you imagine how many lives would have been saved if they would have accurately warned people?  I'm sure it's all stuff you already know but you probably would enjoy it.
July 15, 2008 10:21 AM
 

Alden said:

Gary,
you said that the new WX Center will be bigger than the last one, but will the ENTIRE set be bigger than the old one?

-----------------

The entire set will be bigger!

Gary

July 15, 2008 10:55 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

Stormlover - Its amazing, isn't it?  We take for granted so much of meteorology, but from a technology standpoint this science really is in its infancy.

The SPC is still rather new in its organization and if you get a chance you should check out the fairly new facility in Norman.  it is amazing!  I have been there twice.

Think about how new technology is and how much it is booming when we see stats regarding weather events.  Satellites have only really been used since the late 60s/early 70s for observing cloud/structures and other features...

Gary - this is the first time I have EVER seen you put it this way..."but it isn't until October when next years weather pattern really starts to show itself, or set-up. "

Subtle change in wording...but it seems you MAY...may be allowing the potential for it to start earlier, but not be shown until October.  

We will keep working on this.  I do see evidence of the longwave establishing sooner, but I will have to show it to you.

Lastly, you commented on my curiosity of similar type events happening last August as part of the same cycle/same general jet position and indicated it was unrelated.

Possible.  Seems odd how a week later the same events are happening as well.  Even the mention of the northern weak cold front that may not make it down, and the fact it could get quite dry if it misses.

So much as this could be perceived as coincidence..I guess for the hard core science folks, the LRC may as well.

LOL
July 15, 2008 11:55 AM
 

LisaC said:

Contest Entry - 12 days above 90 and highest temp will be 96.
July 15, 2008 12:28 PM
 

outwest said:

Hi Gary,

Greetings from Colorado.  It has been a while since I've checked in here at the Blog.  I understand you were in Colorado not too long ago so you got to see for yourself how dry it is on the front range (thankfully our higher mountains had a good snow pack).  

This has been a painfully dry weather pattern for our region, and we're hoping for something better on the next go-round of the LRC.  The recent news in the Denver newspapers is that 2008 is shaping up to be the driest year for Denver in recorded history.  That may or may not happen, given that there are still 5.5 months to go.  Once you get past October though, you really can't count on much moisture in these parts.  The southwest US monsoon is starting to get active and I'm surprised none of that moisture has made its way to Colorado yet.

Best

-----------------

Yes, Colorado was dry, but the mountains still had some good snow cover way up high.  I had a great time with Breezy and Stormy.

Gary

July 15, 2008 12:38 PM
 

AJTiger said:

19 days>90
98 max temp
July 15, 2008 1:04 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

well, i guess i cant put it off any longer...

27 days of 90+

98 hottest temp.

mark it.
July 15, 2008 1:16 PM
 

kuchoirkid said:

22 days above 90, hottest day will be 101.
July 15, 2008 1:19 PM
 

Lizbaugh said:

CONTEST ENTRY

Days 90 or above- 18
Hottest Temp.- 101
July 15, 2008 1:58 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

pvt - you crack me up.  Mark it.  LOL
July 15, 2008 2:10 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

well, today will be ANOTHER below average day temp wise...unless if kci gets to 95...which would put it as an average day(low 62).

it would be great if we could get atleast 1 of you guys(weatherteam) to participate in notes' contest.  i missed the last one, it would be great to have one of you guys on board, too...

btw, scott, i responded to you and posted my predictions...dont worry, they are a little different than yours. ;)
July 15, 2008 2:12 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

what did you put scott?
July 15, 2008 2:13 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

as far as your former comment goes, if the cold front indeed misses us to the north...it will likely be the genesis of the dry spell we were speaking of...and hence the higher temps.  it would not be an unexpected occurrence if the front does indeed evade us...
July 15, 2008 2:15 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Pvt-

Cold fronts to our north, eroding as they come down or stalling out is not front page news...I agree.  It is summer, and that is what happens.

What I thought to be interesting is the sequence of events.  Having the events happen is one thing..no big deal, but when the sequences begin to line up...then its worth a second look.

Much like the LRC.  

My predictions were not too far off yours.  I had 20-98.  I am actually expecting the NW flow to come back in early August and become dominant again until nearly the end of the forecast period.  So, most of the days I am counting should occur prior to that time with a few sprinkled in with the NW flow to account for fronts that can bring a bit of compressional heating.

I am beginning to wonder if I am seeing some very subtle changes already to the pattern for the next one.  I don't have anything definite yet, but I want to think I am seeing the flow shift every so slightly easterly....

Dunno yet.
July 15, 2008 2:38 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

Typical summer day here in St. Joe 88 degrees, with high humidity, and some cumulus clouds under a slightly hazy blue sky... Interesting on the models how there is this weakness in the upper level ridge that they forecast to be over most of the nation that just "happens" to run up and down the "Mississippi River" longwave trough, with light northerly flow in the upperlevels behind it and light southerly flow out ahead of it.  Now the only question is, will this crazy LRC go out with a soft warm whimper, or will it have  a few last surprises?
July 15, 2008 2:50 PM
 

HarryB said:

90 Degree days 17
Hottest temp. 98
July 15, 2008 3:07 PM
 

rachel said:

contest entry:

90 or above--28
hottest temp--98
July 15, 2008 3:16 PM
 

spike said:

  linda says
27 days above 90
highest temp. 101                                                            
July 15, 2008 3:38 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Nick - there is a surprise left.
July 15, 2008 3:44 PM
 

stormlover said:

15 days above 90
highest temp 103
July 15, 2008 3:49 PM
 

jlswildcat said:

My guess is as follows . . .  Have a great day everyone!

23 days above 90
highest temp 101
July 15, 2008 3:51 PM
 

kellyann said:

My guess would be:

90 degree days---16

hottest temp---96
July 15, 2008 3:52 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

kcwxguy said:   Nick - there is a surprise left.


Is it a late-August blizzard?  The one that was supposed to happen back in March?!?
July 15, 2008 4:00 PM
 

chfs327 said:

So anyway I entered in in the 1st blog. I was with 24 days and 101 the highest

I think this Winter will be the year. The Year we will never Forget.
July 15, 2008 4:30 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

chfs:  Any ice storms in August this year?
July 15, 2008 4:43 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

awwww notes, that was bad...

BUT IMAGINE A BLIZZARD IN AUGUST!

lol i had a dream last nite that a tornado just missed my house, and then the next morning there was like 3 feet of snow on the ground, that would be interesting if it really happened~

but why do u think that way chfs?
July 15, 2008 6:42 PM
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