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wow! only 18 days? considering kci averages 44 for the whole summer...a total of 21 days in the 90's would seem hard to believe...

hopefully its 26...i like snow..;)

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I love winter so much more than summer!  18 days, that is my prediction.  We will see, and we should know where we are headed in about 10 days.  I doubt that it does what happened last year, where suddenly we were thrust into a long streak of 90s.  I can see a 7 day stretch later this month, but I doubt it would last any longer.

Gary

oops, i chose 27, not 26...

No, you were right the first time pvt, hopefully it IS 26 (and top of 100).

How does the weather look this weekend in southern Missouri by the AR border? We are going camping and I'm hoping for dry weather! *crosses fingers*

No surprise above...LOL.

Just did a fun blog [click on my name]

Notes - I guess I missed yours...you did 26-100?  Climate norms?

LOL

Notes - very funny from the last blog..didn't see it until now.  Yes, I am seeking the blizzard.

How can you not see it?

Stormdog - Ugh - I dislike hot and humid without respite as much as I do frigid and cold without respite - hope you are right, Gary.

Dog

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Dog,

I hope I'm right too.  August was hotter than I thought last year.  I just don't see it this year. 

Gary

chfs:  Any ice storms in August this year?

No.

However After looking at some cycles it seems that this will be a repeate of 1997 and 2002 winter.  Lol Ice storms

awwww notes, that was bad... from last entry... lol

BUT IMAGINE A BLIZZARD IN AUGUST!

lol i had a dream last nite that a tornado just missed my house, and then the next morning there was like 3 feet of snow on the ground, that would be interesting if it really happened~

but why do u think that way chfs?

-BTW, im with ya Gary on the 90s + temps... cept my highest was 100

^^ I had a feeling you were chfs...

That last comment was directed at Turd.

random thoughts coming...watch out for zingers:


i certainly dont see august 07 in our future this year...and i like winter better also...but i see summer settling in strong soon, too.  july was a below average month temp wise last year too, but august came in with a vengence...

imo, its all variable dependent on the tropics...specifically the behavior of the gulf and nw'ern Caribbean.  those strong low pressure systems can really jack up the placement of anticyclonic air masses.  especially if they get hung up and dont get picked up by a passing trough.  i havent lived here long enough to really get a good feel on how much an effect it has on our local weather...but coming from the south, those storms would affect day to day weather, even if they didnt hit us.  

i see a drying trend for our local area as well.  it seems that summer patterns here especially follow the phrase 'the rich keep getting richer while the poor keep getting poorer'.  meaning, once a pattern sets in during the summer, it takes a while for it to get displaced.  so, once a dry regime sets up(within a week to ten days, perhaps?), i personally believe it will last longer than current indications suggest.  

this could be in part the reason why it seems to many that fall appears to come later and later each year.  with the exception of a small uptick in september precip(in conjunction with the peak of hurricane season, perhaps?) there is a general drying trend occurring for the rest of the year.  if one of these drying trends hit at the right time...late august/early september, for example, we could be looking at an extended summer.  much like a couple years ago where we were in the mid 90s into the beginning of october.  

as it stands now, i believe we are going to have a solid 3 to maybe even 4 weeks of dry(hot) times ahead of us.  which could be starting soon.  however, i also think that we will hit a wetter pattern sometime during the latter half of august, continuing for several weeks.  that would lend credence to the thought that we could end up with a more timely fall season this year(earlier, than recent past), but then have a more pronounced 'indian summer' during a dry phase in october.  that seems to fit with the way this year has gone so far.  it also seems like a long time coming having a 'normal' onset to fall.

as far as lrc genesis is concerned...i believe that september holds the key, probably the second half.

my rambling is over.

Notes - you are a super sleuth.  ;-)

Gary, having some time to review the cycles, it seems one of the big keys in the high pressure location in the SE CONUS or there abouts.

I am curious how the A/B high and tropical developments may impact the high location.

When closer to coast, we see more of the SW flow here in the midwest but when further east, we see that dominant NW flow following the longwave.

I wonder if the early Cape season continues if it will continue to find weakness in the A/B high?  If so, then the NW flow will certainly dominate this summer...and...if that is the case, it would allow the SE to trough and likely protect the east coast from tropical developments.

While the LRC is very pattern specific, there is no doubt there are relationships to teleconnections.

Murph, funny we were thinking along the same lines on this topic...

I do think the tropics will play a key as you can see with my thought above.

I agree on the hot streak into the first week of Aug, followed by a weaker wet spell of about 4 days then back into a dominate NW flow for nearly the rest of the month.

With the NW flow, it will be dry.  Watch the A/B high...the closer to the eastern CONUS, the more rain for us.  The further east, the less rain.

Its only in the slight movement of the A/B high do we get central ridging.  It is not a big sweet spot and why we haven't had extended heat this year.  One side is wet and the clouds keep the temps down, the other side is the NW flow keeping the upper levels cool.

I have looped out the entire cycle from August to July...its very interesting to watch not only the patterns but the secondary entities and how they similarly move.

Pretty cool

but why do u think that way chfs?


1st off. I am Chfs327. I had a Different account due to trying to get my other account banned but that didnt work.

2ndly, Due to all the wild weather we had this year the next cycle shows that It Intensifies just west of Topeka and hits the KC Metro Southeast ward through the state.

The Major Icestorm that hit in 2002 was devistating. Due to my gut feeling and the "Judgement Day" that I called back on May 1st, I have a feeling that it will be a cold nasty winter.

But is Not even August yet so mostly its all IDKs and IDCs. Just a feeling i have.

I am staying at my Grandma's house here in Lancaster, KS, and it was miserabe today, as the Air Conditioner boke, and the heat, and humidity soared inside. I actually had to go outside becuase their was a breeze. I dont mind 90 degree heat, I just HATE the humidity!

Well I predited pretty close to what Gary, and Jeff did. I had 21 days, and 98 degrees. It will be fun to see how it all pans out.

Well, its time for me to go herpin =].


Alex from Marceline

I see the thunderstorms in Nebraska pushing south. We have hay on the ground and I was just worrying a little that they might hold together. I assume they won't since there is no mention of this possibility but some reasoning as to why they won't would make me feel a lot better. THX in advance to any input.

I just got back a few day from camp. northlandcamp.org , heard Keven Brownfield.

Is anyone going to Lakefest in Atchison Friday night, or the river walk on Saturday?

Alex Pickman

fatflinger, I wouldn't worry about it...the moisture parameters are not too favorable in this area...I would expect to see them fall apart.

Did they get rid of Weatherunderground?   I cant seem to pull the right page up... very strange!!!    Anyone else having problems getting on that site?

Looks like those storms will hit St Joe for sure, in some form.   They are racing this way, but I agree with Scott, they will fall apart before they hit here.   I think we could all use a nice drink before the dry, hot season sets in so I will do a rain dance.

radman, i just pulled it up, seems to be working fine :D one time i freaked... cuz i put .com instead of .org... haha

but yeah... i dont want them to fall apart... but there are no hints of rain tonite or tomorrow morning.

When is our next chance for rain?

we may at least get an outflow from these thunderstorms to prevent a 90 degree day tomorrow we shall see it will be interesting to track.

Yeah...wunderground seems jacked.  Had to go to another standby...sad.

St. Joe may catch some remains...

Yeah wunderground is down. sad day for all. : (

does anyone know of a site where you can detect how many lightning strikes there are?

ok yep.... i musta got lucky, but now it doesnt work!

yes very sad