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That is just insanity.

Do you agree the LRC is going through a change? It just seems a lot of us might have gotten caught up with the wet and somewhat cooler summer.  I'm also guilty of feeling like that trend would continue.  However, I'm having thoughts the rainy pattern is over and we'll heat up for August.  Front after front has come through about every 3-5 days and there's just nothing showing up  other than returning to average temps for this week...avg. precip potential.  

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We still very strong evidence of the LRC continuing in a weakened state.  This next two week stretch should produce some ridging aloft through our part of the nation.  It could grow in strength producing a heatwave, but I still doubt it does what happened last summer.  Last year it heated up at the end of July and August sizzled away.

Gary

Hey All,

Just a quick reminder that for those interested in competing in the Labor Day forecast competition, entries are due tomorrow by 7pm.  The entire details are listed below.  Click my name to make your entry.

(copied from the forum thread discussing the contest):

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Same verification rules as last time, with two primary exceptions: PoPs WILL be included - you must include "probability of precipitation" for each forecasting day (see below for full explanation) and precip amounts will be multiplied by 10 instead of 5 to make the precip forecast more heavily weighted in the overall scoring setup.

Let's try to do away with the "well, the verification setup didn't suit my forecast very well" claims that were all too prevalent after the forecast competition started last time. I think we all know how weak those claims are.

If you don't like the verification setup (which, just like last time, is clearly delineated and announced BEFORE the game even starts!) then why participate? I think I speak for many of us when I say that I'd rather you sit this one out than whine about how "well it rained within 50 miles" or other such sad claims after-the-fact.

By posting a forecast in this thread, you are agreeing to the following rules for the competition:

Competition Rules:
1. Forecast competition spans one full calendar week to included Labor Day. The forecast competition dates are Tuesday, August 26th, 2008 through Monday, September 1st, 2008, inclusive.

2. Each competitor will forecast four variables for each of the seven 24-hour periods, as verified against the actual totals at KMCI (Kansas City International Airport):
----High Temp for the 24-hour period
----Low Temp for the 24-hour period
----Probability of Precipition (in percent) from 0% to 100% for the 24-hour period
----Preciitation Amount in hundredths for the 24-hour period

3. Forecast verification & scoring will be based on each forecast versus the actual totals (not versus consensus, although consensus scores will also be tallied).

4. For temperature scoring, each temperature forecast will be verified against the actual values and error points assessed, one error point per temperature degree error.

5. For Probability of Precipitation ("PoP") forecasting, each PoP value will be validated against the actual (keep in mind, actual values will only be 0% - no precip - or 100% - precip was recorded). Measurable precipitation is defined as precipitation which amounts to at least .01 inch. A trace ("TR") of precipitation does not count. Also important to note: the forecast is made in tens of percent:

* So, if you think that there is a 10% chance of measurable precipitation, select a "1" in the "PoP".
* If you think there is a 20% chance, write a "2", etc.
* If you don't think there is any chance, write a "0".
* If you think there is a 100% chance, write "10".
* If KMCI does get measurable precipitation, the verification is "10". If KMCI gets either a trace or stays dry, then verification is "0".

6. Precipitation amount forecasts will be verified against the total that falls at KMCI during the 24-hour period. The difference between the forecast and actual values will be multiplied by 10 to weight precipitation appropriately. Thus if a forecast calls for 0.25" of rain but 0.45" falls at KMCI that day, the forecaster will earn (0.45"-0.25")x10 = 2 error point for that forecast period.

7. Each forecaster's final score will simply consist of a cumulative total of the points earned over the seven days. The more accurate forecast = lower score.

Example Forecast:

Tuesday, 08/26:
H: 88
L: 65
PoP: 10%
Amt: 0.10"

Wednesday, 08/27:
H: 83
L: 72
PoP: 0%
Amt: 0.00"

...and so on. Forecast all the way through Labor Day, Monday, September 1st.

You may submit your forecast in one of two ways:
1. Post a reply to the NITM forum thread with your full forecast.
2. Send it to me via a Private Message "PM" through this forum. If you choose to send your forecast to me via a Private Message (PM), I will post it publicly in this thread after the deadline.

All forecasts must be posted on the NITM forum thread thread or sent to me via PM (if you prefer not to make forecast public prior to the deadline) no later than Friday, July 18th at 7pm (00z).

Questions/comments/concerns - email or PM me.

Stormdog - So...Is there gonna be any storms in late July - Aug? Maybe??
Pardon my shortness, I just got thru mowing the yard in a sulpherous heat, and it sounds as next week will be worse - Good Gad...

Later,

Sounds like quite the workout, Gary.  Since I've never been into bulking up, think I'll just stick to my running 5 days/week although admittedly, the heat and humidity have made it tough.  

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Yes, this is more of an advanced workout, but without weights.  I am very sore, but feeling great.

Gary

The pattern is weakening..but still there...and the larger scale entities are still in flow as they should be..just weaker, thus different surface reflection.

Just my thought.

Here is some fun facts [if I did my math right]

Rain days since June 1st [met summer] - 21/47 = 45% of the days.
Rain days since July 1st - 5/17 = 29% of the days.

Average amount of rainfall per rain event - .54 inches.

Subtract one day and the average rainfall per event drops to .39 inches.

The stats show it to be above average in amounts, but I will have to look up what is normal for frequency.  Sure seems like it has been dry lately.

I am looking forward to the quick central ridging before the active pattern returns right after it breaks down.  How active will it be this time?  Will the fronts make it down?

After that, should head back to the NW flow..which should keep August cooler than average.

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Scott,

Thanks for the stats.  I may use them in tomorrows blog.  I am usually all over these stats, but we are just out of place right now with the new set construction and what we are working with back here.

Gary

Scott -

If I remember right, you had tagged the last 1-2 weeks or so as being "Western Troughing" (which would imply NW flow) but it seems that to define the recent pattern as such would be a bit of a stretch...seemingly more zonal in my view (I know, I know...but the jet is further north).  What say you?

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Notes,

Actually, western troughing would imply middle of the nation upper high.

Gary

i could be wrong, but wouldnt 'western troughing' put us in either a sw(with lower heights) or a diffluent flow aloft(with the jet retreating)? so therefore, you would want western ridging to put us into a nw flow...

...i personally believe that once the drier pattern sets up, it will last longer than some anticipate.  that means you scott, and perhaps you too gary, although you are being rather ambiguous so its hard to tell what you mean.

i do think we will return to wetness sometime in the middle of august, but history suggests that moisture isnt a like a light switch here...it takes time for it to build.

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Pvt Murphy,

I always think that August is more of a wild card with the LRC.  Last year we believe the LRC lasted through August and made a slow transition between the end of August and the end of September. The flow aloft becomes so weak that it is tough to make a long range forecast.  Well, we know it will be hot,  but will cold fronts get back down here?  I still think a heatwave would only last 7 to 10 days at the most.

Gary

Oops-

Thanks pvt...What a difference a single letter can make!  I meant SOUTHwest flow, not NW as my post states.    Yes - western troughing would indeed put us in SW flow, not NW....thanks for the typo correction.  

And yes - I agree...this time of year, once a dry spell sets up, it is difficult to snap out of it anytime in the July/August/September period.

Gary -

Yes, western troughing would indeed imply central/eastern ridge (upper high) but it seems the SW high has been in place more often than not over the last week or two...and that is why I was asking Scott about his calls for western troughing.

It seems more often than not in the last two weeks, the SW has had the highest heights rather than troughing.

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Notes,

This is the part of the cycle where we have had higher heights over the southwest.  The western troughing is likely but much farther north than in the other cycles.  So, a ridge will form.  A string of 90s may begin, and it could have started today.  We have it in the 80s the next two days, but without a front it will highly depend on an outflow boundary, and cloud cover.

Gary

not only is your workout crazy Gary but another station is crazy also.  Just caught their 545 weather and this station is calling for lower to upper middle 90s for the next 7 days!  Wow.  Talk about a different thought process.  I sure don't see it happening but someone else sure does!  I like how you feel great two days after the workout though.  That first day after is always a downer.

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Yes, the workout feels good.  I see potential for it to start sizzling too, but there could be a backdoor front next week that could keep the hottest weather to our west.  Friday and Saturday aren't going to be that hot, but Sunday it starts going up.

Gary

I'm fat.  The only dips I do have to do with donuts and coffee.

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That sounds good right now, but I will eat my Healthy Choice soup and dinner.

Gary

pvt - "rather ambiguous"?  Really?...I feel like I have explained it till I

1.  Am blue in the face
2.  Explained it to the point of no one wants to hear it anymore.

I only have so much real estate to communicate it.  I have done loops, comparisons, blogged on it here, my site and Notes' site until my fingers bled.

I will be happy to get more detailed, but first...can you check out the other blogs/etc first?  Might save me typing to the bone.  LOL

Notes - Yup, I was calling for western troughing.  And I also noted that it likely would be much weaker this time and much further north.  You know why.  LOL

That said, it was the phase that broke the dominant NW flow we saw for much of the last week of June through the early part of this month.  Then we are do for the change to more of a SW flow.  I believe you have this sequence on your blog from a few moons ago.

As we enter the SW flow more regularly, I expect the central ridge to establish for a bit, but not too long...similar state to what we saw in May with the Omega..where you had the western troughing - ridge - eastern trough.  That lasted for about a week before the blocking eased.

Then, the western troughing moved through.  It is this time in the first week of Augish that I expect to see more wide spread rain chances...assuming that it isn't...well you know..too far north.

After that troughing clears, it will relocate over the Great Lakes, and back to the NW flow again.  This is why I reduced the number of 90+ days in my forecast initially.

I am counting on this next week to ten days to give the bulk of the highest temps for the rest of the summer.  After that, I think we will have a few, but more aligned with compressional heating for some of the NW flow type fronts.

Wow..think I chipped a bone...lol

I want the heat to stay away, and I want the cold front to keep pushing southward and bringing us more rain/storms.

I wish I had the energy to do that workout. The only workout I get is going herpin every night. Last night, I had a lot of luck, I found a copperhead, and a timber rattler on the same stretch of road, then I found a fairly large Black rat snake heading out of a groundhog den. My friend went with me and he was up the road a bit and said he found a "Cotton Mouth" over the walkie talkie. I drove up there and it was just a Northern Water Snake. That is a very common confusion. (Northern Watersnake to Cotton Mouth) Cotton Mouths DO NOT live here, they live souh of I-70 in the Ozarks region of the state. Poeple will swear they saw a Water Moccasin, but they do not, so please do not kill a snake that you think is poisonous, or because you are scared of them. They are more scared of us than we are of them!!

Good luck with your workouts Gary!!!

Alex from Marceline

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Alex,

Thanks, and keep us updated on rainfall totals.

Gary

scott, i was suggesting that gary was the ambiguous one, not you.  i am pretty sure that i understood where you were coming from back in early october...if not late september...now get back to me in 2-3 months and i may need some clarification on where you stand with the next, 'pattern'.  ;)

thats looking like a pretty tasty line of storms heading slowly this way...i wouldnt mind getting a late night rumble or two...

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Pvt Murphy,

How am I being the ambiguous one?

Gary

Gary I notice your forecast is 5-7 degrees cooler than the NWS for the middle of next week. Can you explain the difference?

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We may jump on that heat bandwagon tonight or at the latest tomorrow. I am waiting one more day. There are definite signs of the front, in Nebraska right now, not making it here, and then the next one stalling to our northeast.  If that is the case, then the other forecasts for all of the heat could very well be correct.  I am just not there yet!  If the upper high builds over the plains next week, then our cooler forecast will not pan out.  So, the reason we have it cooler mid-next week is entirely due to the possible backing in of some slightly cooler air.  If we feel confident in the warm-up after looking at the trend tonight and tomorrow, then you will see our forecast warm-up.  We are almost always the ones on the right side of this, so, let's see how this looks in the next 12 hours. 

Does this make sense to you?

Gary

Ahh..ok..thanks Murph.  I hope to have the pattern nailed down in the end of September.  If it is a bit longer, then early October.

I hit 56 days in early October this cycle...I think I can do it again.

I am one of the few that probably really enjoy this time of year...I can focus on the LRC without distraction of you know...actual weather.

LOL

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Scott,

I think there is "actual weather" going on right now just to our northwest.  A large area of thunderstorms is sagging into the viewing area right now.  Will it rain or not in the next 24 hours.

I can't wait for you to pin down the LRC before it develops.  This will be fun, and I will hold you to it.  At this moment, I am strongly confident that the pattern is not known until late October or early November, at the very earliest, and really it has been shown that we should wait until early December before we know the first cycle.  However, I am open to other possibilities.  We will all be tracking this together in the coming weeks.

Gary

That is quite a line of rain up north, is it going to make it down here overnight?  

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It will make it a bit farther south, but probably not to Kansas City.

Gary

I wish all of the people who participated in the contest would posta comment, I think it would make the blog fun.

We need a Winter Storm Warning to be issued, that wil get everyone on here, lol.

Maybe we will get some decent cold fronts this fall, and some nice severe weather events before it gets too cold. It smells like rain outside, here in Atchison. I was listening to the bands get all of their equipment tuned for tomorrow. Is anyone going to lakefest tomorrow night? I am looking foward to Blake Shelton.

Alex

Gary, the cycle is almost over this year, and we still can't agree on its duration.

LOL

you had a typo in your comment above - "I am strongly confident that the pattern is not known until late October or early November"

"known" should be replaced with "shown".  I would agree with that statement to an extent of tracking at the 500mb level, though...in hindsight, it is visible..but not clear without having knowledge of where to look for the fingerprint.

Heck, I couldn't see it this year at 500mb until about October...but I did spot it at the surface..thus the 56 day notation in late Sept/early October.

Beats January when the cycle is half gone already!

Yup..we will be watching this together.  It will be fun to do it again...what is it...third year now?  Forth?  Maybe this year for fun, I will reintroduce the SMC...LMAO

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Scott,

I really hope you are right.  And, that was pretty creatively funny on my typo. Anyway, it is something I will pay close attention to.  I received an email a few years ago from a viewer who wondered about the cycle length and the moon cycles.  We will track this together in the fall.

Gary

I don't think the rain will make it down.  If it does, it will be in pieces.  We will be left with the blowover in the morning...may slightly ding high temps if they are not out by noon.

Maybe another day just short of 90...probably 89 at KMCI.  [One can hope, right?]