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Late evening update...hotter forecast

Good evening bloggers,

I know there have been other forecasts warmer than ours for next week.  After looking at tonights NAM and NGM, we are going to aggressively raise our forecast highs and reduce the chance of rain.  If you live way up north, north of a Leavenworth to Chillicothe line, then you may get some of the heavier rain and thunderstorm activity.  I hope I am wrong, as my lawn will need some water soon, but this is reality.  It may be about to get hot.

This is really right on schedule, and there is concern that it could last a while.  We will track the developing anticyclone in tomorrows blog and on NBC Action News beginning at 5 AM. 

Have a great evening!  Thank you for your questions and concerns tonight.  Amazingly, as we are raising our temperature forecast, thunderstorms are heading this way.  Let's hope they get here, as we need some rain, at least my lawn does.

Gary

Published Thursday, July 17, 2008 9:16 PM by glezak

Comments

 

LRCfan said:

Gary,I hate the dreaded anticyclone I hope to get some rain I live in Leavenworth before the hot settles in!!!!!!
July 17, 2008 9:31 PM
 

LRCfan said:

So far one day above 90 for the contest. Also, Gary will you be issuing an Anticyclone Watch? lol

----------------------

Yes, there is an "Anticyclone Watch" in effect!  Good idea.

Gary

July 17, 2008 9:35 PM
 

WycoSpotter said:

Ugh! Im already sick of the heat! Hopefully we will have some weird mesoscale event to throw a wrench in the forecast and make for some cloudy and cooler days! ;)
July 17, 2008 9:45 PM
 

WycoSpotter said:

Notes,

Will you be posting all of our forecasts here on this blog that we have sent you? Or is this something that we can do ourselves as long as we have entered correctly through your site or through PM?

Thanks,

Bryan
July 17, 2008 9:46 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

"This is really right on schedule, and there is concern that it could last a while"

Awhile?  How long is that?  Should be only about a week.  Wasn't it this time last year you thought the pattern would die?

LOL

----------------

Scott,

I think there was someone who said the pattern was still going on in September, and then suddenly months later said the new one started in August.  Hmmmmm  LMOL

Gary

July 17, 2008 9:51 PM
 

WycoSpotter said:

One last thing I promise! Has anyone else noticed how active the hurricane season has been this month? I know we are only on our second named storm, but all of the activity that is being monitored by the NHC for so early in the season still, and a lot of it has started off in the Cape Verde area. Not normal for this time of year. Kind of looks like July 2005.
July 17, 2008 9:51 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Wyco - I strongly believe the tropics tie to the LRC.  I only get it at a high level theory, but think that is too much energy moving poleward to be ignored.

With the SSTs above "average" and with the sheer somewhat subdued with the almost neutral or slight La Nina and the lack of African dust, things are spinning up.

I will be watching how the Azure/Bermuda [A/B] high reacts this season...
July 17, 2008 9:57 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

How is it "right on schedule" when it was mentioned multiple times within the last 1-2 weeks that your cycling theory would hold off the heat and keep us below average?

-------------------

Notes,

Just go back over the entries from the past few weeks.  I have been saying that there was a strong potential for the heights to rise during this next stretch coming up, for a while now.  It fits, Notes, but how long it will last is the wild card. 

Either way, I just don't like it.  90 degrees is fine, 95 will be getting too hot for me.

Gary

July 17, 2008 9:58 PM
 

Dwight said:

Gosh, with that huge area of thunderstorms stretching from the texas panhandle up to NE iowa and seeming to move this way, I'm surprised it didn't even get a mention in your blog. It looks to be growing even!
July 17, 2008 10:03 PM
 

radman22 said:

That rain will never make it here.   I have been fooled too many times to let it happen again.   It will stay far west of KC as it was our last real shot of precip for the near future.   Bring on the dog days of summer!!
July 17, 2008 10:16 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Gary..knock it off..you know that is only half of the statement.  There is a transition period where -shocking - both cycles co-exist.  One is dying and a new one is starting.

Silly rabbit.

What is crazier to ponder, one cycle transitioning into another  -OR - one cycle starting precisely by Nov. 15th, only to cycle until Summer, abruptly dying, and NOTHING HAPPENS until Nov. 15th again...

Really...

Dwight, the front is NW of us.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_20km_oper/.//+sa5_ppt+am+03

Without any type of wind shift, it will be tough to get anything fired up.  Also, it is quite dry ahead of the front.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_20km_oper/.//+rh_surf+am+06

And tough to get anything to fire without surface instability and a cap...

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+cape+am+03

It looks impressive, but really won't do much here until a chance tomorrow...

----------------------

Scott,

I was just on, and pretty much agree.  Now, the cycle likely begins in early October.  We keep learning.

Gary

July 17, 2008 10:19 PM
 

bewild79 said:

I know this is not about weather.....but Gary, did you know Coldplay is on Leno tonight?

-------------

Yes, and I just got home, racing home to catch Coldplay tonight!  I wonder what song they will do?

Gary

July 17, 2008 10:38 PM
 

bewild79 said:

I know this is not about weather.....but Gary, did you know Coldplay is on Leno tonight?
July 17, 2008 10:38 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

lol what does this mean for the contest? does it mean we may have a longer prolonged period of heat?

im worried i may have underestimated the possible heat

-------------

I still believe we are cycling through the pattern, so cold fronts should still be able to get down here.  Next week may still get a break somewhere in there, but not on Sunday and Monday.

Gary

July 17, 2008 10:38 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

As long as we end up with 21 days of 90+, and the hottest temperature of 98, I will be happy!

Alex
July 17, 2008 10:43 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

This day in history [closest matching jet location] in this LRC - August 16, 2007 [when this cycle was in its infancy]

"Some areas are experiencing thunderstorms.  A cluster of heavy thunderstorms is trying to organize just west of Kansas City.  There is a chance that this cluster will slowly evolve and drift into the metro area. "

http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2007/08/16/1895531.aspx

We will probably miss it by about 50 miles tonight.

Want to know what to expect next week - Monday?

http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2007/08/20/1905045.aspx

They went poof as they got to the metro.

Forecast for Monday?  20% right now.  Backdoor front?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_102l.gif

Probably will poof as well.

Just for grins...

---------------

Scott,

We will both be humbled soon.  The new GFS run has a cold front coming through Tuesday.  So, I may have jumped too fast on that big warm-up.  Let's see how it looks in the morning.

Gary

July 17, 2008 10:45 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Weatherdude - have faith in the LRC.  

It will carry on for just a bit longer.  Sure, we will have one mini heat wave, but have faith in the NW flow!

If I could just get Gary to trust it into August...I know it is scary, but you have to go with the gut.  This year's LRC will begin to transition when we get back to the NW flow when the little heat wave breaks...
July 17, 2008 10:49 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

i am glad to see some coming around to the possibility of extended heat.  i see a solid 3 weeks of heat building.  i feel like i have been preaching that sermon for some time now...i dont mean that it will be a heat wave for 3 straight weeks, but 3 straight weeks of dry and above average temps overall.  that would likely include 1 decent rain event sandwiched by 1 smaller wave and another more impressive heatwave...which if i had to guess would be between the end of the first week into the second week of august...followed by a week to 10 days of increasing humidity followed by an extended wet phase that could go on for several weeks.  

lots of speculation, but as kristi would say...its just that gut feeling.

*****************

PVT,

Your forecast of hot temperatures was based off what?  Just gut feeling, climatology, or other methods...

Jeremy

July 17, 2008 11:18 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

words can't describe how mad I am right now. the name of the band should be hotplay.
July 17, 2008 11:19 PM
 

DaveC said:

You know Gary, we are in Phoenix for family vacation this week. Tomorrow it is suppose to be 112.. .today was 110..  This weather stinks! I got in the pool this afternoon and it was not even close to refreshing... I am excited to get back to the low 90's in a few days! :)
July 18, 2008 12:06 AM
 

lezakEF5 said:

It looks like they are having a lot of trouble pushing into Kansas City, and it looks like they are roting around the city as if they are trying to miss KC and the surrounding areas. I wonder if Atchison will get anything.

Alex
July 18, 2008 2:08 AM
 

lezakEF5 said:

I think the rain is going to fizzle out, and I dont think there will be much left by morning. Just my thoughts...

Alex
July 18, 2008 2:17 AM
 

WycoSpotter said:

I just heard thunder! Woohoo! It might just....sprinkle this morning.

**************

So far 0.05" at KCI.  Enough to wet the sidewalks.

Jeremy

July 18, 2008 5:29 AM
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