NBC Action Communities

Gary, Brett, et. al.,

This is one morning when I don't envy your position at all...this rain has progressed much further south than most of expected, but still seems to be hitting a wall as it approaches the metro / state line.  I aborted an early-morning run in favor of watching the rain fall ... which means it better happen!  

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Notes,

Yes, this is a tough one.  And, next week, well, I think the backdoor front will get here. 

Now, today's rain, you are closer to it.  And, we have seen this radar pattern a few times this season.  Has it made it to your area yet?

Gary

Nice little rain shower here in platte woods, looks like a hot weekend, stay cool .

Nothing more than sprinkles...how incredibly annoying.  I grudgingly went ahead and set up the sprinkler on the garden.  It has already been a remarkable year for the garden though, so I can't complain.

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Notes,

The backdoor cold front will help with the garden.  The plants don't like the 90s.

Gary

It's been raining steadily for the past 1/2 hour 45 minutes here in Easton, MO.......

Jennifer

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Thanks for the update.  If you have a total later please pass it along.

Jeremy

Just looking at my rain gauge we are closing in on close to an inch of rain......looks like I do not have to water the garden this weekend.....will post an updated amount later this evening

Jennifer

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Thanks for the update!  If anyone else has a total to pass along we'd love to hear from you!

Jeremy

Sounds like someone has caught a case of modelitis the past 24 hours with the multiple change in forecasts.  I hear they make medicine for that now.

Regardless, looks like today will be average again with the increase of cloud cover and potential for rain this afternoon.

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Sounds like the forecast for today will work out just fine.  Chance of showers and some clouds around.  I don't think changing the forecast by a few degrees is a huge change.  Especially in the summer when the difference between say 88-94 is just a bit above or below average. 

Modelitis is so rare in our weather department that we are unaware of the medicine you speak of.  Any case around here usually isn't even noticable.

Jeremy

It did get a bit closer than thought!  Still, ultimately, not much though..atleast for the metro.

We do get to hold on to the blowoff, and the longer it hangs around...well...sorry about your luck Notes...

;-)

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Maybe I'm wrong...but there was some rain in parts of the metro this morning.  The chance of rain continues today.

Jeremy

Modelitis is a bear, Zeus..this is the modelitis season for Meteorologists...

Friends don't let friends flop on each model run...

LOL

I guess we did not hit 90 yet for the contest?

http://www.weather.com/weather/monthly/64111?from=36hr_topnav_undeclared

How far over 90 does it actually have to get before you recognize it?  I'm guessing around 93 for the 3 degree warranty.

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For our contest we are using the official high temperature at KCI.  Thursday's high was 90.  So far there has been one 90 degree day for our contest.

I would recommend asking us if you need climate data...instead of the weather channel.

Jeremy

This is one of those situations where having a fairly large viewing area you could be right and wrong about this backdoor front next week. Areas around Topeka, Emporia and Sedalia may not get it at all and just bake while areas in North Central Missouri could clearly see it.

I think I'll point that out so you dont get critics on here later if this situation happens.

Do any of you see the end of the current LRC with this ridge setting up? Or can we look forward to a wet part of the cycle coming back in early August?

morrell - I think your link uses the data from downtown, though I have not confirmed it.

In general, Jeremy is right as data from TWC is generally um...how do I say this..."yucky".

In addtion to the full service this station provides for climate data, the NWS has all the climate data as well.  

http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=eax  May I recommend the CF6 data?

Jeremy..regarding climate data...I need the KMCI meteorgrams from Aug 2006 to present.  I am so happy to hear that you are a source as I have not been able to find this.

When do you think you can get this?

LOL - just having some fun.

Jb - this ridge setting up fits with the pattern.  It also fits with typical climate patterns for this area in Summer.  The real question is this...once the ridge builds, climate data would suggest it would persist beyond a few days or a week.

In fact, based on how summer typically reacts, once the ridge forms, it is hard to get rid of until late August.  The LRC would sugges that this ridge will form, but weakly and pass as the wet cycle approaches.

I think we will see a weak wet cycle.  While maybe not too much rain in this area, the signficance will be that the ridge moves and the flow changes.  After that, we may get back into the NW flow.

So the key of this year's dying LRC is what happens after the ridge forms?  I think we will still get one more shot of the NW flow...I am betting on it.

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I might have an answer for you on the meteorgram...soon.

Jeremy

What are they doing in the empty studio with the camera and those two banners hanging?

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Just testing out how some of the new backgrounds will look when the lights are on them.  Next week the studio camera should be catching a lot of action with the new set being put in.

Jeremy

Im in Atchison now and my grandma's guage has 0.20".

Alex

Gary..not to be nit picky..but with the current season building in the tropics and the gaining attention there, I am not sure your term "tropical disturbance" applies here..unless there is another definition I am unfamiliar with...just trying to prevent confusion...

Tropical disturbance — Tropical cyclone that maintains its identity for at least 24 hours and is marked by moving thunderstorms and with slight or no rotary circulation at the water surface. Winds are not strong. It is a common phenomenon in the tropics and is the first discernable stage in the development of a hurricane.

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/rvat/glossary.html#t

Unless you are expecting a hurricane in the viewing area?  LOL...atleast not a blizzard!

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Scott,

I agree, and disagree at the same time.  This moisture plume, over us right now, originated in Mexico spawned by tropical air associated with the Gulf of Mexico. So, this is a tropical disturbance. So, this is where I disagree with you, but I agree that it is also associated with the upper level storm moving across northeast Kansas Right now, as weak as it is.

Gary

I have a Question. Tonight I will be Traveling across country (2nd time in 3 weeks) to Phoenix.  I have a Connecting Flight in Denver however. Do you think that the storms will cause a delay at KCI around 7PM tonight.  Im fine with a Delay in Denver but im not fine with a delay here because my connecting flight leaves like 45-1:00 later

Ooops, I lied, 0.70" in Atchison!

Alex

Well some rain earlier and there is still this spinning disturbance near Nemeha/Brown/Jackson counties in Ks. with some rain so...
Looks like I'm just gonna have to wait until tomorrow to mow the lawn, darn what a shame;) LOL.  Sometimes when heat tries to build in especially in cool summers it ends up being squeezed out by thunderstorm complexes and cold fronts so we will see how this evolves, but tis' the season.  Another thing, as the LRC does get ready to weaken and transition soon, modelitis season will be here to, so try to be mindful of fall modelitis outbreaks, Scott said modelitis season is here, but I would say fall is the biggest time for it at least in the LRC world of thinking when we have to use them as more of a crutch.

about 4 tenths in st jo

Check out those biceps! haven't heard much about your workouts lately Gary.

Could use the rain in P Hill...lawn is starting to show some signs of stress and folks GRUBS are going to be bad this year, but it's amazing that it's still this green. We haven't watered once.

I'm about sick of this. I'm ready for spring again.

Another "this day in LRC history" moment for this cycle.

Aug 17, 2007.  [cycle match to today with similar jet location]

"The Orange colors over Kansas and Missouri represent vorticity.   Basically the remnants of Erin have made it to our area and they are slowly moving across.  The NAM has no rain here through Saturday at midnight. The NGM and other models do have a potentially wet scenario."

"Normally I would be updating the 7 day and being very excited about this tonight.  But, something still seems wrong.  I don't know what it is, because we have about as much moisture available for very heavy rain that you can possibly imagine."

http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2007/08/17/1898806.aspx

As written in the reply above by Gary for today -

"This moisture plume, over us right now, originated in Mexico spawned by tropical air associated with the Gulf of Mexico. So, this is a tropical disturbance. So, this is where I disagree with you, but I agree that it is also associated with the upper level storm moving across northeast Kansas Right now, as weak as it is."

Daily food for thought.

What will happen next Tues?  Backdoor front?

http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2007/8/20.aspx

Tough call, Gary...good luck.  LOL

Scott and Gary:  You alluded to a "wet" part of the cycle...as it stands now, when does the "wet" part of the cycle return?

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Scott,

It is July!  We are moving into August.  Even though I firmly believe the pattern is cycling, as was established last fall, it is battling with summer, so it is a very weak version of the pattern right now.  There is likely no wet or dry part of the cycle.  It will continue to be very difficult for an upper high to form in the "long term" longwave trough position, just to our east.  This is why it will be very difficult for a major heatwave this summer.  We will likely have these two to three day warm-ups, and August is still a wild card as the pattern may be about to begin its transition.

Gary

<----looks out the window.

Notes – your last post got me thinking how best to put this…

You are a met, and a climate guy, so maybe I can try to communicate this differently.  It has become sort of a running joke about how the retreating jet is an excuse for anything that does not happen per the LRC, and for that excuse/or use of that as an excuse, I have no response.

But – regardless, the jet does retreat.  It is what happens this time of year.  Everyone knows this.  So, that said, you want to know when the wet cycle is?

Well…wet is a relative term, isn’t it?  I have tried to stay to more pattern definitions such as western/central troughing, but you are correct is stating that “wet” has been a word used to describe this part of the pattern.

It was wet in most of the cycles to this part.  So…lets look at how it is wet, and how it must relate to the location of the jet.

Lets rewind in late Winter…I recall quite a bit of rain in the Ozarks/NW Ark…the jet was very strong and pushed the trough axis further south in response to the amplitude.

More specifically, we would target the first ten days of Feb.  

http://water.weather.gov/index.php?layer%5B%5D=0&layer%5B%5D=1&layer%5B%5D=4&timetype=YM&loctype=NWS&units=engl&timeframe=last30days&timeYYYY=2008&timeMM=2&timeDD=1&product=dep_normal&loc=regionCR

Fast forward to the first ten days of April.  Rain has moved northward, but not directly on us.  We catch some decent totals, but not a wow amount.

http://water.weather.gov/index.php?layer%5B%5D=0&layer%5B%5D=1&layer%5B%5D=4&timetype=YM&loctype=NWS&units=engl&timeframe=last30days&timeYYYY=2008&timeMM=4&timeDD=1&product=dep_normal&loc=regionCR

Fast forward to the last few days of May and the first week of June.  Wow.  Jet still moving north, pattern moves with it and we get soaked.

http://water.weather.gov/index.php?layer%5B%5D=0&layer%5B%5D=1&layer%5B%5D=4&timetype=YM&loctype=NWS&units=engl&timeframe=last30days&timeYYYY=2008&timeMM=6&timeDD=1&product=dep_normal&loc=regionCR

Fast forward to about now and the next few days.  Not much rain here, but north of us getting soaked – N. Kansas – Nebraska - Iowa.

http://water.weather.gov/index.php?layer%5B%5D=0&layer%5B%5D=1&layer%5B%5D=4&timetype=RECENT&loctype=NWS&units=engl&timeframe=last7days&timeYYYY=2008&timeMM=6&timeDD=1&product=dep_normal&loc=regionCR

In researching this, couldn’t help notice the flash/ flood watches/warnings in N. KS and in Iowa.  It is still in progress, so we will have to watch…

These maps are not perfect as I could not get this kind of view regionally for specific weeks at a time, but I think it shows the movement north when the “wet” cycle has been anticipated.  

Scott -

Good synopsis of the last 6 months or so, but what you described:  the progression of the jet to the north along with its subsequent "active" weather progressing from southern latitudes to the north...is that not simply seasonal change you just described rather than an aspect unique to this year's set of "cycles"?

It is related to seasonal change as it relates to location of the pattern.  I thought I had covered the sequence of the pattern here and elsewhere.

Just thought I would try to debunk the "jet stream retreating" barb as something that is real and something that is part of the whole thing as it relates to the cycle and to season changes.

The LRC is pretty cool, but cannot win out against global thermodynamics.

LOL

.10 in leavenworth this morning.

Scott -

For the record, I've *never* disputed that the jet stream shifts north as the seasons warm and then drops back south as we approach winter ... that's a fundamental principle of meteorology.  But when it comes to the the cycling theory deck, it seems to be the trump card - pulled out when all else fails as a catch-all excuse to validate changes or shifts that don't match up otherwise.

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Notes,

It is something that I will need spend a few days on soon.  Whether the pattern is still cycling or not is up for debate.  Of course we believe that it is cycling, and it is continuing from the pattern that set up in the fall.  It is about 50 days in length, give or take a few days.  Regardless of whether you believe that the pattern is cycling or not, I think it is easier to show that the "long term" longwaves are still in place.  The ones that set up in the fall.  This is really a strong reason for the cooler summer, so far, and the wetter pattern. 

Gary

What's up with that line of storms developing out between Topeka and Lawrence?  Looks to be intensifying rather rapidly; I'm guessing more rain headed this way.

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The trend is interesting.  We will blog about it in between newscasts if this continues to grow.

Gary

Notes, I think I might have finally put the LRC ideas in the best way I can.  I left it in your forum.

I am inclined to think it is enough to make even a skeptic open up a bit.

The LRC made its way  through mid June, and there's a 50% chance that was by accident.  The trend changed about a month ago.  And that's the fault with the LRC.   The LRC concept is good for 6 months at best.  The "recurring cycle" part is just not there unless your a fan of weather from Christmas to July 4th.
It's silly when when those of us try to use the LRC to narrow down fronts and the timing of precip and temps.  The reality is real, but can be expanded on a larger scale to incorporate problems with the 6 month forecast based on previous similar patterns.
The LRC is not a "recurring cycle" unless you measure it in terms of maybe six months.  A a true recurring cycle, would---well, cycle....  The reference to LRC, implies the weather pattern repeats constantaly.
Of course it does.  They call those SEASONS.
Gary is a snow fan and to me, the LRC just happens to set up around December first.  A true LRC cycle should be set up any day of the year.  
Having said that, I do believe the LRC should be adjusted more than once a year and should evolve and transform with the seasons.  

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GaryB,

The LRC sets up each year in October, and then continues through July and likely August.  So, I respectfully disagree with your above comment.  I can usually identify the cycle by early December, and it is about this time that forecasts can be made short and longer term based on the LRC.  As you move into January, the LRC is even better defined as we have likely been through two cycles. Characteristics of the pattern become better defined, and we just "know" the pattern more by January.  It then continues through the spring and summer, but in a weakened state. 

There will continue to be a lot of debate on whether forecasting using the LRC or just using climatology, for example, can be just as good.  We have now documented forecasts that have shown to be MUCH better than most other longer range forecasts.  And, we use it short term, even on the order of 12 hours or less, where it can be a valuable tool in forecasting. 

You say that a true LRC can start on any day.  Let me just pick a date randomly....February 10th.  Yes, that day can be day 1, just like any other day can be called day 1 in a cycle.  So, I agree with that point.

Gary

0.39" so far here in trenton.. with more on the way

Looks like scott broke the blog.  

Good one!

Blog looks ok in IE?

Using Firefox now, and yes..its broke..LOL...sorry.

Well..its the LRC, models, climate norms, or 1993 or 2004.  Pick your poison.

lol

raining hard here at 152 and Amity

.65" at the fort today.

.32 on the west side of leavenworth today.

fog is really setting in quickly tonight...its going to be a soupy morning tomorrow.

For those looking for more LRC thoughts..I have posted a near epic entry on my blog [click my name].  I am worn out.  I also posted it on Notes forum as well.

I think I would have rather done the workout Gary blogged about yesterday!

Summer time is already wearing me out!  Someone please bring me a MCS to forecast/track to relax...LOL

Wow, the fog is incredible!  I feel like I'm in the Scottish Highlands!  I ran out to get some pics of the sheep in the mist but it was a bit too dark and after 3 shots, the batteries gave out.  Sometimes I hate digital cameras!  Weather team, can you explain what has caused such a heavy fog?  I can't say as I've ever seen one this heavy at this time of the evening before.  I can barely see my huge barn that is just a few hundred feet from the house!  Freaky for a July evening...

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Yes, it is rare to have fog in July.

Have a great weekend.

Gary

wow its going to take me forever to read scotts blog. its like longer than a novel!!!! lol

lol bell...you know how you get going in a thought?

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I will look at it later.  I am on in 3 minutes.

Gary

hey gary,
if you dont mind could you maybe give a forecast for worlds of fun for tomorrow and tomorrow night. one of lisa and my favorite bands is there tomorrow night. i just wanna know whether or not to expect any rain. thanks.

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Randy,

I will try to mention it on the air in two minutes.

Gary

yes scott i do lol i seriously will have to read it when i am not as tired as i am. it looks really interesting. did gary or any of the guys read it?

thank you gary.

Got 1 inch in western KCK.

I just got back from the Lakefest concert in Atchison, and it was amazing!!!

Alex

.14 in the past 24 hours 169 & Englewood

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Thanks for the rain totals!  A big range across the area.

Jeremy