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Dolly, Cristobal, and a backdoor cold front

Good morning bloggers,

It may seem subtle, but this is likely going to be a fascinating week of weather for our local area.  A backdoor front will be approaching us this evening. It will likely be near 100 degrees ahead of this front. This should provide the energy for a very heavy rain event for someone.  But which local area will be affected by the heavy thunderstorms?

 

What is a heatwave?  In KC, a heatwave is defined to be 3 days in a row where the temperature reaches 95 degrees or higher.  It was 91 Saturday, 95 Sunday, and likely around 96 or 97 today.  So, today is only day two of the "hot spell".  This can't be called a heatwave until it reaches that third day in a row. 

 

Tomorrow, we may get some relief, just in time.  But, it is still somewhat suspect on how far south the backdoor cold front will get.  Look at last night's GFS model.  I drew in the backdoor front and it is forecast to be just southwest of Kansas City by 1 PM Tuesday.  This would shift the winds to the east and northeast, providing a slight cool down.  And, thunderstorms may form near the front.  The last couple of model runs have been trying to keep the thunderstorms northeast of the front, just missing Kansas City.  We will talk a lot more about this thunderstorm potential on our newscasts today and tonight on NBC Action News.

Last night KCI reported an 80 degree dewpoint at 8 PM.  That is extreme humidity.  The dewpoints are back down to a respectable 70 this morning, but it is still rather muggy outside. 

The tropics are starting to get active.   Bertha was a named storm for a long time, for much of this month, and now we have Cristobal and Dolly.  Look below at the forecast tracks for the tropical storm force wind speeds.  Dolly will likely threaten Texas, and Cristobal will likely head out to sea.  We will also track Dolly tonight on our newscasts.

 

 

Have a great start to the week.  Our new Forecast Center and NBC Action News news set is beginning construction today.  You can actually watch it live!  Here is the link to our studio camera.  The construction should begin sometime this morning:

http://www.nbcactionnews.com/studio

Gary

Published Monday, July 21, 2008 6:45 AM by glezak

Comments

 

juba said:

Goog Morning! It is nice outside, right now anyway.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAMLCDnCLzs Morning Song.

---------------------

A great soothing song to start the morning. 

Gary

July 21, 2008 7:13 AM
 

bewild79 said:

The SPC is making it sound like tonight for the northland that it could be interesting....

-------------------------

I am not convinced yet, but if thunderstorms do form, with all of this heat, there will be the potential for microbursts. Something we will be monitoring this evening.

Gary

July 21, 2008 8:26 AM
 

auroramama said:

Bewild I was just noticing that too!  I don't think I've seen a 5% risk on there in a while, not that I've been looking that often..it's been pretty quiet (and dry) here lately, guess that's about to change.  I'm in Belton, it looks like we maybe shouldn't expect to see any of this so far south?
July 21, 2008 9:31 AM
 

bewild79 said:

That is  a scary thought Gary..
July 21, 2008 9:32 AM
 

bewild79 said:

Auroramama,
According to the SPC it didn't sound like things would be crazy there tonight.  You may luck out...
July 21, 2008 10:19 AM
 

Lizbaugh said:

It would be nice to have some rain this evening...cool things off a bit. I'll keep my fingers crossed!!

-----------------------

I would stop crossing the fingers. The chance is about 10% for Kansas City. 

Gary

July 21, 2008 10:26 AM
 

Jenn6428 said:

So are we supposed to have a lot of rain tonight?  Also, what is a microburst?  Thanks.
July 21, 2008 11:21 AM
 

bewild79 said:

What are the chances for the northland?

-----------

I would put the chance at 10% tonight.  Tomorrow through Thursday is a very tough forecast.

Gary

July 21, 2008 11:30 AM
 

juba said:

I have a thermomete in the middle of an inwarddes facing corner that says 99.3 degrees, it is allways hotter in theat spot so it is probably like 93 degrees already!
I think the heavy rain will miss us at Jo Co Airport tonight. Like it always does.

-----------------

You had 8 inches of rain in June, but this month has not been kind to many spots.

Gary

July 21, 2008 11:32 AM
 

A dogg said:

Dang its hot!! I went fishing yesterday and I thought I was going to melt! Im going today, but I might wait till this evening. So is there a very slim chance of rain here in drexel?

---------------

It doesn't look like it right now.  The chance in Drexel is 10%.  Hopefully by tomorrow it will look more likely.

Gary

July 21, 2008 11:38 AM
 

A dogg said:

Oh, also, what is the latest on Dolly? Is it going to intensify into a hurricane as it moves across the warm waters of the gulf, I have family down in southern texas and they dont always pay attention to the weather.
July 21, 2008 11:43 AM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

It appears KCI has already hit 90 again...so if I remember right, we're at 4 for the contest already.  

Don't forget that today is the last day to enter Labor Day forecasts for the forecasting competition:
http://www.notesinthemargin.com/phpBB3/viewforum.php?f=5

Several forecasts have already been entered, but the more the merrier.

July 21, 2008 12:30 PM
 

jhawk62798 said:

in the summer heat here, does the anti-cyclone have a greater likelihood of lifting the moisture from a tropical storm or hurricane into our area?  I know if probably depends on where the anti-cyclone forms and where the tropical event hits, but just curious Dolly's impact on our weather.
July 21, 2008 12:34 PM
 

bellgolfMU12 said:

this is the number one site i come to but i have found a really good hurricane site for those interested. this blog should be everyones number one still

flhurricane.com
July 21, 2008 1:22 PM
 

nastyweather said:

Bad weather up in Des Moines this afternoon:

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) - A line of thunderstorms battered Iowa with winds of up to 100 mph early Monday, knocking down trees and power lines and blacking out more than 200,000 homes and businesses.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D922CIR80&show_article=1
July 21, 2008 1:46 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

Hurricanes can have a lot of weird influence on the weather even around here, and some times it is not always a "wet" influence, I have seen some times that in the summer we would have a cold front approaching from the north that could have given us a good rain, but a hurricane making landfall to the south and south east of us would cause the wind a head of the front to start trying to blow in from the north and northeast( due to us being on the extreme northeast side of the cyclonic circulation) and it would kill the convergence along the front helping  it to come through dry!
So it will be interesting to watch, but for now it is hot,hot, hot.

--------------

Excellent points Nick! It is likely too far away from having these influences, but we have to watch it as it moves inland.

Gary

July 21, 2008 1:49 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

It would be good if the center of Dolly came ashore north of Brownsville (provided it's not a major hurricane at landfall), as a good chunk of South Texas north of Brownsville is in extreme to exceptional drought as of the latest drought monitor map from July 15:  http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/drmon.gif
July 21, 2008 2:01 PM
 

A dogg said:

Hey gary, why wont any of my comments show up on bretts blog?

---------------

He may have the comments section turned off.  We will take a look at it later.

Gary

July 21, 2008 2:02 PM
 

JPnKC said:

Looks like the SPC is getting ready to issue a Watch  in the area. By the looks of it, it will be from I-70 North- just a guess from the MD outline.

JPnKC will be doing the raindance later!

July 21, 2008 2:06 PM
 

JPnKC said:

Looks like the SPC is getting ready to issue a Watch  in the area. By the looks of it, it will be from I-70 North- just a guess from the MD outline.

JPnKC will be doing the raindance later! My lawn needs a natural drink...

July 21, 2008 2:07 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

A dogg, I had the same problem a week or two ago.  I sent a lengthy comment to Brett's blog re the California wildfires and it never posted.
July 21, 2008 2:09 PM
 

A dogg said:

Yeah, I sent him a pm
July 21, 2008 2:19 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

I just let it go, but haven't tried to post since so don't know if it's a recurring issue.
July 21, 2008 2:34 PM
 

Mark M said:

Gary, I see on the forecast that there are small chances for rain most of this week, is that due to the front being nearby or just being so humid that we would be more tropical with pop-up storms?

-------------------

It is so complex.  The backdoor front will try to move through Tuesday morning. And, then it could hang around in a weak way through the week. The chance of thunderstorms is highest just northeast of us.  We are on the edge almost every day. The first test will be tonight.

Gary

July 21, 2008 3:08 PM
 

bewild79 said:

new blog
July 21, 2008 3:27 PM
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