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Upated at 6:30 PM....Meso Discussion

6:30 PM update:

A high based thunderstorm tried to form over Lee's Summit, but then quickly fell apart near Lake Lotawana.  Temperatures cooled off a few degrees into the 80s briefly during that shower.  The thunderstorms in Iowa are struggling, so there is no immediate threat to northern sections of Missouri.  We will be tracking these developments and more tonight at 10 PM on NBC Action News.

5 PM update:

T-Storms are beginning to form over northeastern Kansas.  A SEVERE T-STORM WATCH is in effect until midnight across areas to the northeast, and just look outside you will notice some cumulus clouds forming near Kansas City, and LIVE:ESP is showing some development over northeastern Kansas. We will have much more on our newscasts tonight on NBC Action News!  And, a lot has been done today on our new Forecast Center and News Set.  We will show a time-lapse of the activity at 5, 6, and 10 PM tonight.

Good afternoon bloggers,

The SPC has just put our area in a meso-discussion.  They are monitoring northern Missouri for a watch that could be issued soon.  We don't see any sign of any development at this moment, but we will also be paying close attention to this.  Look below at the map.  What is wrong with how they drew the fronts on the map below?  How can they make this mistake?  It is basic meteorology:

The front coming out of the little surface low is drawn in backwards.  I got an A in Synoptic Meteorology Lab at the University of Oklahoma in 1981.  I would never have gotten an A if I would have drawn a front in backwards.  The red half circles, and the blue cold front triangles should be the other way around on that stationary or backdoor front. 

Anyway, it is just something I thought I would point out.  We should be paying attention to detail when a meso comes out.

If thunderstorms begin forming we will do another blog later on.  There is a good chance that areas northeast of Kansas City could see a lot of rain this week. The rest of us are on the edge.  Which way will it go?  We will be monitoring these developments and Tropical Storm Dolly, which will likely become a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, on NBC Action News at 5, 6, and 10 PM tonight.

Have a great evening.

Gary

Published Monday, July 21, 2008 2:36 PM by glezak

Comments

 

GaryB said:

Excellent blog entry, Gary.
July 21, 2008 3:22 PM
 

Ross said:

Wow...check out those wind speeds up North.
July 21, 2008 3:25 PM
 

MelissaLG said:

I should probably know this from reading the blog for so long, but what is a meso discussion??

Thanks!
July 21, 2008 3:27 PM
 

Jenn6428 said:

Can someone please remind me what a microburst is?  
July 21, 2008 3:34 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

I think a microburst is "sort of" like a tornado - but it goes straight down, destroys and goes straight back up.  I may be wrong - but it's sort of like that!  (Not a technical definition I know . . . )  I also don't think that they can warn and do sirens and things for microbursts -t hey just happen and are gone.  
July 21, 2008 3:43 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Wow check out the storms to our north..



Storm hits Iowa with 100 mph wind, causes blackout  

Jul 21 01:34 PM US/Eastern
By MELANIE S. WELTE
Associated Press Writer 6 Comments          


 DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) - A line of thunderstorms battered Iowa with winds of up to 100 mph early Monday, knocking down trees and power lines and blacking out more than 200,000 homes and businesses.
No injuries were reported, and there were only a few reports of structural damage, including a roof torn off a small building at the state prison for women in Mitchellville near Des Moines.

The storms didn't produce a lot of rain, but a wind speed of 100 mph was reported at Dawson, a town of some 150 people about 30 miles northwest of Des Moines, the National Weather Service said.

By late Monday morning the storm system had crossed Illinois into Indiana, where the weather service posted severe thunderstorm warning for northern counties.

In Iowa, about 177,000 customers of MidAmerican Energy were without power from Sioux City on the state's western edge to the Davenport area on the east.

"It started about midnight in Sioux City. One of the unique things about this storm was that it never really broke up. It just moved across our entire service territory," said Ann Thelen, spokeswoman for MidAmerican Energy.

Thelen said the major problem was "an enormous number" of trees on power lines. She said she had no idea yet how long it would take to restore service.

Iowa's other large utility company, Alliant Energy, reported 31,000 customers without power.

Power outages in Des Moines shut down traffic lights, snarling the morning commute. Police posted signs or directed traffic at the busiest intersections.

At the women's prison, part of the roof hit cars in a parking lot but no one was hurt, said Fred Scaletta, spokesman for the Iowa Department of Corrections. He said the building houses a voluntary clothing donation center for inmates who are leaving prison.


http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D922CIR80&show_article=1
July 21, 2008 3:45 PM
 

jstonemo said:

A microburst from my understanding is a massive downdraft from a dying thunderstorm. The cold sinking air drops out of the storm straight down and spreads out in all directions. I think they can be very strong winds and cause major damage like a tornado but there is no "path" of damage. Raintree Lake was hit by a strong microburst a few years ago.
July 21, 2008 3:48 PM
 

Teamster83 said:

i think there like straight line winds not twisting winds like a tornado
July 21, 2008 3:48 PM
 

LSGolfer said:

Jenn6428:

Here is a good link for information on a microburst:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microburst

Jason
July 21, 2008 3:57 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

Gary, you should have posed the question about what's wrong with the map from the meso discussion to the bloggers and see who noticed it first, lol.  The SPC is in Norman, like OU, but perhaps the meteorologist who put the MD together didn't graduate from OU, lol!
July 21, 2008 4:04 PM
 

sedsinkc said:

Good thing oil dropped from $145/bbl to below $130 before Dolly formed.  Oil prices today rose to over $131 on concerns about Dolly, predominantly.
July 21, 2008 4:08 PM
 

Mark M said:

The new set looks nice. Are they primarily putting together the background right now?  I didn't realize the set would come in pieces to put together like a puzzle. Cool.
July 21, 2008 4:16 PM
 

dougbce said:

The SPC has put northern Missouri and central Illinois into a Moderate Risk for this evening.  
July 21, 2008 4:21 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Amusing.  Having been corrected on my synoptic drawings, I am glad someone else gets it this time.

Ross, the "wind speeds" you mention is what is representing the effective bulk sheer.  These values shown above are not overly strong, but are a bit high for this time of year.

Normally as the vorticity is stronger earlier in the year with a more interactive jet, there are times you may see Eff bulk sheer with values of 70+ kts.  All the same, these values above are plenty good for supercell development and with the very strong instability..I can see the need for these to be watched.

Gary - any thoughts on where the purple horseshoes, red balloons, or blue moons would go on the drawing?  

Your statement of  ["The red half circles, and the blue cold front triangles should be the other way around on that stationary or backdoor front"] made me think of Lucky Charms...

LMAO

July 21, 2008 4:57 PM
 

chieffan07 said:

Hello. What are are chances for severe thunderstorms tonight and into Tuesday morning? I see that there has been a severe thunderstorm watch posted to the north and east of here until midnight, should we expect that watch to be extended into the metro area after 12:00?

Thank you
July 21, 2008 5:20 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

Good catch on the MD map.

While we're correcting graphics - gotta admit that your temperature contours have left a bit to be desired lately...I just saw a current temps map that showed places with the same temps (Kirksville and the Ozarks) but with different colors... and that seems to happen very frequently that the colors don't match the temperature/gradients very well.  Is that automated or do you do those on your own?

I bet your synoptic prof would rib you for that one!  
July 21, 2008 5:23 PM
 

Bandito said:

I was living in Lawrence when the microburst hit a few years ago. It was interesting because we had really strong winds go in one direction. Then they shifted and went really hard the other direction. I then saw a large debris field hit a power line causing the line to arc. That's when I thought it was a tornado. I also was amazed by the clouds, they were flowing downward almost like a water fall. It was super freaky.
July 21, 2008 5:30 PM
 

Matt P said:

Chieffan07, if a watch is posted for the metro, it would probably be before midnight.  Normally, the watch will be issues progressively, not as a finite time for certain areas.  I hope that makes sense.
July 21, 2008 5:32 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

A thunderstorm has formed over the middle of Jackson county. Time for a new blog? :)

David
July 21, 2008 5:33 PM
 

A dogg said:

I was in Branson once when a mircoburst hit. We were staying at the coleman resort on indian point, and we thought for sure it was aa tornado!! The next morning we helped the owners clean up. Their sign was ripped to shreds, one piece missed our car by like a foot, shingles everywhere, trees uprooted, all trhe billboards around the area were shredded, it was a mess!
July 21, 2008 5:35 PM
 

chieffan07 said:

Thanks Matt. That makes sense. I was just trying to figure out how late we should expect the threat for severe weather.

Thanks again
July 21, 2008 5:37 PM
 

jonkleinow said:

Why is it that St. Louis is under a heat advisory and we aren't, even though temps are slightly higher here than they are in St. Louis?
July 21, 2008 5:47 PM
 

Alden said:

Can you post the time lapse online?

--------------------

Alden,

Between tonight and tomorrow I will try to get your request done.  I will get today's and tomorrow's time-lapse and do a little segment for the web.

Gary

July 21, 2008 5:52 PM
 

Dwight said:

come on. thunderstorms are forming over Jackson county, NOT NE Kansas. Can we get some new information on the blog?
July 21, 2008 5:56 PM
 

juba said:

So should i expect morning dew?

When would be the best time for me to turn on the mower tonight, it has to be tonight. It can't be 7:00, my sprinklers will turn on! Hope you can help!
July 21, 2008 6:22 PM
 

juba said:

So should i expect morning dew?

When would be the best time for me to turn on the mower tonight, it has to be tonight. It can't be 7:00, my sprinklers will turn on! Hope you can help!
July 21, 2008 6:22 PM
 

auroramama said:

A dogg, was your experience in Branson in about 2003?  I used to live on Indian Point and had gone out to Wal-Mart late to get worms (night fishing).  I heard a sound while driving like a train coming and had to pull over and lay in a ditch.  By then husband almost got hit in the head by a flying piece of fence.  That experience to this day is why I'm scared of tornados!  I never did hear for sure if that was a microburst or a tornado...it was very scary for sure though.
July 21, 2008 6:23 PM
 

Alden said:

Thanks Gary
July 21, 2008 6:37 PM
 

mattwalker said:

gary im headed to the royals game tonight is it going to rain? what is the difference between a microburst and mesa?
July 21, 2008 6:40 PM
 

stjoelawyer said:

well the watch is just to my north and the t-storm west of here in northcentral KS is just setting there.  will it pull in a lot of the heat and humidity before it colapses and create an out flow boundry?  Could the outflow boundry wipe out the chance of strong or severe weather by settling things down and raining out only with no severe weather?  
July 21, 2008 7:23 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Absolutely beautiful huge cumulus starting to anvil out off to my east , from my deck facing Lenexa.
July 21, 2008 7:43 PM
 

Lizbaugh said:

I was just out in my Jeep...of course there were showers in Lee's Summit!! The one time I choose to take the top off my Jeep it has to rain and thunder!! Go figure!

**I am glad it cooled down a few degrees!!
July 21, 2008 7:44 PM
 

Randy Cooper said:

come on gary. theres a tornado warning for northeastern grundy county and your not gonna cut in? whats up with that? not trying to be disrespectful or anything but the public should know.
July 21, 2008 8:02 PM
 

emcat said:

New blog
July 21, 2008 8:10 PM
 

bewild79 said:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1847
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0800 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO THRU CNTRL/S CNTRL IL
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 220100Z - 220230Z
 
  AN ADDITIONAL WW PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WWS 719/720 PRIOR
  TO 03Z.
 
  WHILE AREA OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
  MOTION MAY SPREAD EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS/
  INDIANA THIS EVENING...FORCING ALONG A TRAILING LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
  ZONE APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
  VALLEY...BENEATH INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
   THIS MAY BEGIN AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF WWS 719/720 BY
  02-03Z...INCLUDING THE ST. LOUIS/COLUMBIA...POSSIBLY KANSAS
  CITY...AREAS BETWEEN 03-06Z.  WHILE...INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE AS
  EXTREME AS NOW PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI... THERMODYNAMIC
  PROFILES ARE LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
  DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...ON THE
  WESTERN FLANK OF A CURRENTLY EVOLVING LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
  SYSTEM.
 
  ..KERR.. 07/22/2008
 
July 21, 2008 8:13 PM
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