Good morning bloggers,
This forecast for the next week is a tough one. Will we have a heat wave, or will these cold fronts be strong enough to move through and cool things off just a bit? And, will it rain? I will go over the details this morning in the blog, and then our weather team will be talking about it all on NBC Action News today at 11 AM, 5, 6, and 10 PM.
First of all, the backdoor front is likely right near Olathe this morning. Thunderstorms continue to develop near the front, one cell formed right near downtown Kansas City around 5 AM. Other showers and thunderstorms formed near Lee's Summit again, like they did yesterday evening, around 6 AM. And, thunderstorms have been much more signficant near Chillicothe and Trenton. There is a line of thunderstorms trying to organize north of Kansas City this morning, but will it hold together? As these areas are getting sufficient rainfall amounts to keep everything lush and green, other spots, like Olathe and Overland Park are crisping up. The map below shows the very slow moving front as of 6 AM:
The temperatures will likely be in the 80s northeast of the front today. And, it will approach 100 degrees southwest of the front. But, where will it be at 3 PM today? I think it will not back up, and stay just southwest of Kansas City. We have to watch this area for thunderstorm development as we reach peak heating later this afternoon. This temperature forecast is quite difficult today. And, it doesn't get much easier the rest of the week.
The 06z GFS shows another cold front approaching and moving slowly through us by Friday evening. Look at the upper level flow forecast for 7 PM Friday, below:
The "anticyclone", or upper level high height area is strong and located back over southern Colorado by Friday. A strong wave is moving through the northern Great Lakes, and this is putting us in northwest flow aloft. This type of flow should bring a cold front through us, and you can see the surface forecast below:
The past few GFS runs have had this front weaker, and as a result hotter. This is why we went with a hot solution for Friday and into the weekend, but it may not be the case. If this front moves through then it will likely drop into the 80s for highs. But, is this new solution correct? If it is, it would also place us in a zone for thunderstorm development. We will be monitoring these developments later today.
Tropical Storm Dolly is likely going to become a hurricane today. We will also be spending some time on Dolly in our weathercasts today and tonight. Dolly won't have a lot of time to intensify as she will lose her energy source when she moves inland on Wednesday.
Have a great Tuesday! We will try to answer your questions as our schedule permits us to. Our new Forecast Center and News Set will be all framed out by tonight! It is getting exciting and we will have its debut the week of the Olympics on NBC!
Gary