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Good evening everyone! We had a nice break from the hot temperatures today as highs were in the mid 80s in most locations. The humidity was still there...so the a/c still felt pretty good this afternoon. We'll discuss our local weather in just a moment.
First I want to update the status of hurricane Dolly. The storm came ashore today near South Padre Island, TX and was likely a category 2 hurricane with winds estimated at 100-105 mph. I think the biggest problem with this hurricane has been the torrential rain that has fallen over the southern tip of Texas. The radar estimates are putting some of the rain totals over 20"! Here is a look at the rainfall estimates from around 7 p.m. this evening.
Today's rain total of over 6" in Brownsville, TX combined with what has already fallen this month has made this the wettest July on record in Brownville. Flooding will be a huge weather story in this part of the country for the next several days. I have a good friend that works at the ABC station in the Brownsville market, and his boss told all the meteorologists, reporters, and anchors to bring enough food, clothes, etc. for 3 days. When I talked to him before the hurricane made landfall he thought they would be on with continuous coverage for 36 hours or more!
I just talked to him briefly during one of his 5 minute breaks this evening. He said that one of the station's weather censors on the roof of a hotel on South Padre Island recorded a wind gust of 79 mph before the censor broke. He thought they would still be on the air doing continuous coverage until sometime Thursday morning or early afternoon.
Now onto our local weather. The focus for tonight and Thursday will be two parts. One the warm front lifting north and the other is the possibility of thunderstorms. I expect and area of thunderstorms to develop over Nebraska and Iowa tonight...and then drift southeast. Areas from the Iowa and Missouri border to around Richmond, Chillicothe, and Sedalia stand the best chance of seeing some of this activity. As we mentioned on the newscasts the position of the potential outflow boundary and the warm front will play a large role in our weather for Thursday. Rain chances in the metro are pretty slim...but it wouldn't be out of the question for a storm to get close. By afternoon though there should be at least partial sun and a good south wind. Dew points will climb and so should the temperature. It should be in the low to mid 90s in the metro. But areas that see the rain will likely remain in the 80s with a good deal of cloud cover. On the other end of the area locations like Emporia, Topeka, and maybe Lawrence could make a run into the upper 90s or near 100 over the next couple of days.
Below is the surface forecast, rainfall, and precipitation for 1 p.m. on Thursday from the 18Z NAM. This has the warm front likely just north of KCI...close to the little bends in the isobars. Anywhere south of the warm front should climb into the 90s and likely have dew points in the 70s.
Friday will likely be another day with thunderstorms closeby, but once again it should be hot. The position of the fronts and outflow boundaries will be the deciding factor in many of the upcoming days and ultimately mean a 10 degree temperature swing either way.
Jeremy