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NBC Action Weather Blog

Friday Afternoon Update

Watch NBC Action News HD at 5, 6, & 10 p.m. as we track showers and thunderstorms on LIVE:ESP!

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Right now it appears that any showers or isolated storms should stay well below severe levels this evening.  The radar trends have not been very impressive...but a few showers with light to maybe moderate rain are possible.  Most the rain should be south of the metro by 7-8 p.m.  After that we are looking at a dry evening in the city...but still humid.  Saturday looks like a nice day with any thunderstorms chances coming late.

*******************************

Warm and humid conditions continue to persist across much of the area.  The stationary front that was near the area lifted back to the north early this morning.  That has allowed winds to turn to the south and draw in an even more humid airmass.  With the front/s dropping south and a disturbance headed our way there is a chance of thunderstorms for the rest of the afternoon and into the evening.  The threat will be near and south of the front.  The SPC is watching parts of the area for a possible watch.  Here is the map they posted.

Now here is a look at the surface map from just after 2 p.m.  Notice the south winds in the Kansas City area.

Thank you to everyone who sent in rain totals for the past 24 hours.  I'll try to include some during our weathercasts depending on how many thunderstorms there are to track.  Make sure to watch our newscasts for the latest information.

Jeremy

Published Friday, July 25, 2008 2:18 PM by Jeremy WxPlus

Comments

 

HummerSeeker said:

I'm first!  Nothing to say - but I'm first!  I feel SO honored!  :)  Laura
July 25, 2008 2:39 PM
 

weathergirrl said:

What does an "attendant threat" mean?  Will this be a tornado or thunderstorm watch?
July 25, 2008 2:40 PM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Wow...we have really missed out on the rain lately. We have gotten a few showers here and there but nothing that really add's up. That is summer for ya though. Maybe over the weekend some nice long drenching rains will come over us. Have a nice weekend everyone.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS
July 25, 2008 2:40 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

what kind of timing are we looking at for initiation, jeremy?  

i see stuff firing in south central ks, and lone cell in south central mo, but all in all, i cant really pick out a specific boundary or anything to get things going...
July 25, 2008 2:41 PM
 

bewild79 said:

lol Hummer!!
July 25, 2008 2:46 PM
 

johnj said:

This HUMID heat is getting old real fast.  Someone please wake me up when the word "frost" appears in the forecast.
July 25, 2008 2:49 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

this will not be a tornado watch...why are CAPEs so low today with all this heat and humidity?
July 25, 2008 2:55 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Yeah John - I know summer's summer and summer is hot, but I really don't remember it always being so humid so consistently.  Is that just because of all the rain "here and about", or because of all the rain we had in the spring, or what?  Seems like I don't remember it raining so much in the summer!  But, I'm not a summer person, and I usually just tend to block it out of my mind like a traumatic experience!  So I could be wrong.  But I'm less and less able to handle it the older I get! It's just gross out!
July 25, 2008 2:57 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I've lived here all my life...summers are humid here. waiting for a professional meteorologist to answer my question about the CAPE.
July 25, 2008 3:01 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Hey Hail!  I know it's always humid here - but it doesn't seem to me like it's SO humid day after day after day after day - this reminds me of living in Florida!
July 25, 2008 3:09 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Ok they took the MD away and changed the outlook for slight risk.  Since they took away the MD does that mean that nothing will happen?
July 25, 2008 3:10 PM
 

bewild79 said:

I just looked a little closer and noticed that they added us in the 2% range for tornados so I guess that answered my question....
July 25, 2008 3:11 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I don't know. I hope we get some more rain tonight we still need it. man we got blasted about 5 this morning though with some rain that was thick as Jello. much needed. it's been drying out down here.

Laura yeah. about this time of year dewpoints always start approaching the mid 70s which is what they've begun to do. I follow it every year and I hate it but it's just what it does.

Becky. The 2 percent doesn't mean anything. we could still be put under a T storm watch with that 2 percent.
July 25, 2008 3:22 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Thanks Hail!  As suspected, my selective memory seems to be in play here!  Or the caffeine I've overdosed on today!!
July 25, 2008 3:24 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Jonathan,
I know I was just meaning that I guess they think that storms are still going to come here.  There is no MD anymore though
July 25, 2008 3:27 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

=) no problem. where's scott today?
July 25, 2008 3:29 PM
 

rpatterskc said:

OK, so we were thinking about going to Friday Night Flicks at Crown Center tonight.  What are our chances of getting rained on?

*****************

I think most of the rain will drop south with the front.  Odds are much better that you will stay dry.

Jeremy

July 25, 2008 3:32 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I'm not convinced yet Bexter....they said a watch was POSSIBLE. most of the time they will say "watch likely" and I looked at the visible satellite it didn't look very ominous too me....when it looped, about the time the meso came out it looked more ominous but then the ominous features went away, and then they pulled the meso. so I don't know. I would like for us to get some decent storms tonight because I'm convinced we're going to get hot. and I would like us to get some decent rains before that happens.
July 25, 2008 3:32 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

The front in that first map (#1910) that Jeremy talks about - that's the upside down blue triangles, right?  Is that the front that was coming through yesterday and this morning with the big storms?  And now it's moving back sort of to the north again?  
July 25, 2008 3:35 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Wow...should I change my screen name to that Jonathan?  LOL
July 25, 2008 3:35 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

=D hehe
July 25, 2008 3:39 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

yeah but it should come back through as a low pressure passes by us Laura.
July 25, 2008 3:45 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Yea I did see that in what Jeremy wrote - but I wanted to first get the right thing picked out!  I'm GOING to learn how to do this!
July 25, 2008 3:51 PM
 

LibertyB said:

I just got back from a hike and it was so humid none of us could breathe. I'm leaving for Florida in a day so I can't even imagine how humid it will be down there.
July 25, 2008 3:56 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Liberty - like breathing water!  :)  I lived there for 11 years on the gulf side.  But the good thing is there's lots of water to swim in!  
July 25, 2008 4:02 PM
 

kcroyals05 said:

Hello Weather team..

I had .80 inches of rain here in Grandview..

Bill
July 25, 2008 4:15 PM
 

StormWyndd said:

what's up with the rain out west?  seems like it tries to move in, and it's poofing!  if it's going to be this humid, might as well be raining.
July 25, 2008 4:20 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Does anyone think it will actually storm tonight?
July 25, 2008 4:26 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Jonathan..I am around.  I would give you an answer for CAPE, but I am not a professional meteorologist.

;-)
July 25, 2008 4:38 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

some places it will some places it wont. you just never really actually know where.
July 25, 2008 4:39 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Scott shut up...give me an answer your as professional as they get!
July 25, 2008 4:40 PM
 

farmgirl said:

I was thinking about going to the Paola Drive-in tonight, but it is soooo humid outside that it kinda takes the fun out of being outside under the stars.
July 25, 2008 4:41 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Hail - you seem to be awfully calm today. Usually you're excited and bouncing!  What's up?  You okay?  Go ahead Scott - give him an answer! You're pretty close to "professional" I'd guess!
July 25, 2008 4:42 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

StormWyndd, there could be a Cap in place with it being so warm oot(if your canadian) hehe. so that might be why the rain showers are poofing on us
July 25, 2008 4:42 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I have personal Depressive issues I'm going through. probly why I seem more calm.
July 25, 2008 4:44 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

More medicated than before too.
July 25, 2008 4:44 PM
 

scully said:

TOTALLY, StormWyndd....It may as well rain at this point, no doubt, it's humid enough!

And, OMG, HummerSeeker, too funny how you block out the end of summer as a "traumatic experience"--I do the same thing!!!  LOL--I hear ya, brutha!! :) :)  

This humidity STINKS.  (don't know if I can say the other word on here! ;) )  It's a treadmill day for old Scully, it is so hard to breathe out there right now and there is no way I can make it through my workout without passing out.  Not with these lungs.

BUT...I did get my wish for rain last night, my lawn and plants say "thank you!"   It can rain all it wants for all I care.  But it should at least wait until RPattersKC gets home from Crown Center.  *wink*  

July 25, 2008 4:45 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I just realized I probly should've sent a PM instead of a public post but I figured everyone would have liked to know. at least the ones who actually care about me as a fellow blogger.
July 25, 2008 4:49 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

speaking of Scully. I really want to see X Files 2 tonight.
July 25, 2008 4:50 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Anybody ever read through all this?  Sometimes we sound like a bunch of old fogies!  :)  It's too funny!  Hail - EVERYONE cares - or at least I do - and I WAS FIRST ON THIS BLOG!!!  So I get to ask!  We all have days like that!  The people I'm around today probably wish I was medicated too!
July 25, 2008 4:52 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

=) thanks Laura
July 25, 2008 4:55 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Yea!  I wondered if anyone was planning to see it - I figured I was the only one who liked that show!  Well, I'm going homenow!  It's the weekend!  Clean house and laundry!  I LIVE for the weekend!  But I'll check in later. Hey Hail -- you know, I get on these crying jags sometimes and just cry about everything, and in front of people I don't even know, and I don't know WHY.  I told mom once when she happened to call "don't worry mom, it's just my time of the month I guess" -- she says "I hate to tell you honey, it's your time of LIFE!"  That made me laugh!  So stay safe everyone!  Later! Laura
July 25, 2008 4:57 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Yeah I've been crying a lot this week. I understand those feelings. have a good evening Laura!

******************

Hail...please use the pm option if you want to chat about non weather stuff.  That way you don't have to leave the blog and can still post weather stuff.  Thanks.

Jeremy

July 25, 2008 5:04 PM
 

twister11 said:

hail jonathan, are you feeling sorry for yourself on a blog? jw
July 25, 2008 5:37 PM
 

scully said:

We are actually going to see XFiles2 tonight!!!  WHOOT!  So exciting.  
I know, we are totally off-topic, do we get in trouble for being off-topic?  I hope not, sometimes it's fun to chitchat about other things than the weather---which STILL STINKS!  :)  Roll on FALL!!!
July 25, 2008 5:50 PM
 

Matt P said:

Jeremy, we had 1.37 inches from this morning's thunderstorm that came through NE 76th and N Tullis.  It was quite impressive.  I'm glad I put the tarps over the bags of cement outside.
July 25, 2008 6:07 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Jonathan -

Regarding your question in this case with CAPE.  You believed that the values were low, and I am going to guess you made that assumption on the map from the SPC at the top of the page.

Look closely.  It is to represent MLCAPE not MUCAPE or what you would regularly think of regarding instability through the entire column.

MLCAPE is the instability measure for the lowest 100mb or so from the ground.  So, this is only a piece of the entire column....

This is a measure that best represents surface based updraft instability in storm modes.  As it is only the lowest 100mb, it in itself is not always the best indicator for atmospheric convection genesis as there is possibly much more instability above this level...depends on the specific situation.

Does that help?

Gary/Jeremy...clarify if I understand this incorrectly...thanks.
July 25, 2008 6:58 PM
 

bulldog said:

My rain guage shows 1.5" here in Sibley.  I can't believe we got that much rain again.   Enjoyed the rain at the Royals game last night!  We moved just to cool off!  The humidity is INSANE tonight, hope it breaks.
Audrey
July 25, 2008 7:00 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Did KMCI get over 90 today?
July 25, 2008 7:34 PM
 

Matt P said:

Good new/bad news.  The bad news is a tornado struck New Hampshire.  Even Rhode Island had one.  The good news is a baby was found by his/her cries:
http://www.nbcactionnews.com/content/weathernews/story.aspx?content_id=55a5e219-2244-4e49-8263-8025fcf93071
July 25, 2008 8:39 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

Regarding CAPE, remember it is simply a measure of the buoyancy (tendency of air to move upward) of a parcel of air.  If you get warm moist air at the surface and cooler, drier air aloft, you have a lot of CAPE because the warm air will really want to rise up quickly (think of taking the lid off a pot of boiling water on your stove...that hot steam rises up quickly through the relatively cool, dry air in the room toward the ceiling fairly quickly).

The reason why CAPE values are lower today than on a day say, in May, with temps in the 90s is that by July, the upper layers of the atmosphere are warmer today as well.  With the entire atmosphere warmer than before, the surface parcels don't want to jump up as quickly.  (Think of that same pot of boiling water but in a really hot room - the steam simply won't rise as fast, but rather linger around...the way it does in a sauna).  

MLCAPE stands for "mixed layer" CAPE and as Scott suggested, utilizes the values from the lowest 100mb of the atmosphere - the air closest to us here at the surface.  MUCAPE is "Most Unstable CAPE" which means it is a measure of whatever segment of the atmosphere (a 300mb-thick layer) is the most unstable.  This may be down here near the surface or may exist further above our heads (think of elevated convection that happens with more high-based storms).  The third kind is SBCAPE - surface-based CAPE.  This kind measures the buoyancy of a parcel of air if it has the qualities (temperature and dew point) of the surface and is lifted through the atmosphere.

The reason why the SPC likely mapped out MLCAPE on the map above is that it is often seen as the most applicable to a synoptic-scale situation like that of today.  We aren't going to have storms based simply on surface characteristics (especially since we're into July when the upper atmosphere is warmer) so that scratches out SBCAPE.  MUCAPE may unduly tap into some instability that exists too high up to be realized...and MLCAPE will be just the ticket to measure how much energy a front may have at its disposal to trigger some good convection.

Hope that helps.

------------------

Notes,

This is more than just excellent, this is the best description of CAPE, MLCAPE, and MUCAPE, that I have ever seen.  Great job.  Thank you!

Gary

July 25, 2008 9:02 PM
 

LRCfan said:

Scott I believe KCI got to 89 today!!!!!
July 25, 2008 10:36 PM
 

Dwight said:

Hey, looks like the big system in Nebraska is turning our way. Will it hold together and feed off this humidity and make it here by Saturday morning?

******************

I went dry overnight last night at 10 and it looks like the NE storms fell apart.  So we are starting dry and pretty nice this morning.

Jeremy

July 25, 2008 11:00 PM
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