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As long as we don't go into extra innings......  It's a tough forecast.

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There is one isolated t-storm over parts of Overland Park right now!

Jeremy

It is thundering here in SE Olathe.  I thought my son was getting into something instead of napping.  Then I realized it was thunder.

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Hopefully it doesn't last too long...the cells are fairly isolated at this moment.  Happy napping...

Jeremy

haha i was SURFING the net when suddenly BOOM thunder about 10 minutes ago

and then i walk downstairs and open the door and theres these huge drops!!!!

and its POURING rite now as I speak, and its a wonderful rain

lol im enjoying it :D

the latest vis. satellite kinda looks like the genesis of what will become a bow echo...
west of the stateline sounds good to me.  ks has been drier than MO.

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Looks like the best chance across the entrie region is around or before midnight.  So what develops over central Kansas should head east/southeast.  There are some bonus showers developing ahead of this though:)

Jeremy

Big thunder boomers here in La Cygne. I'd Better go and bring in the horses!

Jeremy is saying that the best chance for rain around the metro is "around or before mignight" and that the storms that form in Kansas should move in our direction. So should we expect them to weaken or do you think they could be severe when they get here also?

Thank you

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There's a slight risk of severe weather.  But the best chance of severe weather is within the watch box.  We'll have to watch the storms because right now most of the activity is tracking near or south of I-70.  I'd expect the stuff in central Kansas to move southeast too.

Jeremy

Nice sunshower, it poured a few minutes ago!

Thanks again Jeremy. I will be happy when summer is over and all we have to watch for is some snow. :)

Hearing a lot of thunder of to my west.....wondering if the storms are heading my way....

Getting a pretty good rain & thunder here in Osawatomie.   Actually had the lights flicker a few times.  

NWS stated that the storms are moving northeast, so am wondering if I should get things tied down outside in Kingsville.?

No sooner posted that then the Weather Bug went off with a severe t-storm warning for Miami & Linn counties!

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1924
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0503 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN KS INTO WRN MO
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 753...
 
  VALID 262203Z - 262230Z
 
  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 753
  CONTINUES.
 
  CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS INDICATED CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER
  CENTRAL KS WILL SHIFT ESEWD...WITH EITHER COUNTIES BEING ADDED ALONG
  SRN PART OF WW 753...OR A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED OVER SERN KS IF THIS
  CLUSTER GROWS UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS.  ADDITIONAL
  TSTMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE
  SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO WRN/CENTRAL MO WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WW IN THIS
  REGION.
 
  CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS ESEWD
  INTO WRN MO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD IN
  THE VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN MO WNWWD THROUGH
  CENTRAL KS.  VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2000-3000
  J/KG/ RESIDES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH STRONGEST ZONE OF EFFECTIVE
  BULK SHEAR LOCATED GENERALLY ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
  ENTRANCE REGION OF NWLY MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
  APPROACHING THE MID MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEW
  TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS TO WRN MO

Braysmama - I was in the bath and I heard thunder too!  I thought it was the dogs playing in the living room and I asked my husband if he heard it and he said no.  I just figured I was imagining things.  So thanks for hallucinating right along with me!  :)  

Jeremy, it looks like this activity is moving east southeast direction do you expect anything north of I-70 toward leavenworth per say?

Lots of noise, a few gusts of wind, not a drop of rain here in Paola, even I, who hates rain, thinks we could use a few drops anyway..ha!  Beautiful day today, spent most of it outside, sure hope we can get the Royals game in tomorrow.

I noticed the SPC  pondering a new weather watch for our area, but not real sure if it is necessary. I am still hearing a rumble of thunder or two, but don't think anything will make it to my yard...
HummerSeeker, yeah, thought I was hallucinating too since the chance of rain was slight.  :)

The cell near drexel briefly had a TVS.  Me thinks the metro stays pretty dry in all this.

All in all, this last week wasn't too bad.  Short of a hot start, pretty normal...thankfully.  

Just two days over 90 at KMCI.  This NW flow will continue to keep things cooler to the north of town in general.  Sure, there will be some hot days..but not as many as what might be expected.

I can see the south side of town continue to see much hotter temps than KMCI>..

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With the storms pushing south the one's that follow will likely move in that same direction.  KC still has a chance this evening, but most of the activity should stay south.  Forecasting has not been much fun the past several days:)

Jeremy

Oh yea!  I keep forgetting to ask you Jeremy.  In the contest, it's temperatures at KCI right?  Are those the ones that you guys use on the news?  Like when you say "the high will be . . . " is that teh KCI high or somewhere else?  

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We forecast for the entire area.  If there is a big difference between the forecast number we show versus areas north or south we try to mention what the difference will be.  Like the other day when the front cut the area in half.  I mentioned 70s to the east, had lows 90s in Kansas City and 95-100 for areas to the west.

In regards to the contest the official reading is taken from KCI.  It looks like the high today was 89.

Jeremy

My hubby is out riding, how big is the chance of these storms coming to the northland?

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I think you are fine for at least the next couple of hours.

Jeremy

2 days in a row at KCI at 89.    Those of us who went with high picks needed those days!!!     I agree, this stuff stays to the south of the metro for the most part.     Looks like Monday will be a very hot day, but then the NW flow will nudge us again.

"Forecasting has not been much fun the past several days:)"

It has been a blast..but only for those that don't do it for a living!  Lots of things to learn from in this pattern!

looks like storms are trying to fire around downtown...

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More storms are popping up close to KC.  Still a chance of t-storms this evening.

Jeremy

I am thinking this NW flow may become a feature of the next pattern...

The sky just opened up about five minutes ago here in Shawnee.

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You may see a quick 0.50-1"

Jeremy

We're getting pea-sized hail near SMNW HS now.

Looks like it is getting ready to slam us here in Belton...is any of this supposed to be severe?  Not much a tornado threat, correct?

Jeremy, I have several bags of cement mix outside.  Are we going to get any rain up near Shoal Creek this evening?  Thanks!

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Can you cover them to be safe?

Jeremy

La Cygne has recieved .30 inches so far.

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Thanks...keep us posted if you see more!

Jeremy

Can we expect severe weather here in the metro???

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There is a severe t-storm warning in effect for parts of Johnson, Wyandotte, and Jackson counties until 7:45 p.m.

Jeremy

Still not a drop of rain in our area of Paola despite what the radar may be showing.  It's much cooler, only 78, very nice evening out there right now.

Jeremy, guess I'll have to.  I did the other night for the first group.  Better yet, I'll get them poured.  It's looking fairly threatening up here.

I guess the bugs love the heat and humidity because you should hear them outside. I think this is the loudest they have been all year.

Man oh man, I feel for the the people at the Royals game. I am sure glad we went last night. I was worried about rain then, but it stayed dry. Lets hope it does not hail on them!

Well here between Lee's Summit and Lake Lotawana we have a little thunder and lightning and some light rain. I don't see the reason for the severe thunderstorm warning that NOAA issued. As for a thunderstorm, it is kind of a disappointment.
Audra

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Audra,

The severe t-storm warning was for large hail.  2.00" diameter hail was reported.  I'll try to post a picture later.

Jeremy