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T-storm Watch & Potential Tonight...Heat Advisory Monday...Hello Dolly!

Watch NBC Action News HD at 5 & 10 p.m. for the latest on possible storms tonight and the Heat Advisory for Monday!

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Quick update...the severe thunderstorms moving through north-central and northeast Missouri are producing some incredible hail.  Reports of softball and larger hail have been coming out of Sullivan & Putnam counties.  If you or family lives in these counties please send pictures or reports to jnelson@nbcactionnews.com

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Good Sunday bloggers!  I hope everyone has enjoyed the weekend.  Weather conditions were generally dry today with highs on the hot side as expected in the 90s.  A couple of showers popped up during the afternoon in northern Missouri, but they didn't last very long.  Most of the thunderstorm activity on Sunday has been in the upper Midwest.  These storms will continue to drop southeast during the evening and overnight hours.  The storms should spread into northern Missouri and then continue pushing through areas mainly near and east of the state line.  Locations like Trenton, Chillicothe, and Carrollton stand the best chance of seeing storms later on.  Some of these storms may produce hail and strong winds as many areas are under a slight risk of severe weather.  Here is the outlook from the SPC for the rest of this evening.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect utnil 1 a.m. for the far eastern and northeastern parts of the viewing area.  Here is the county breakdown.

In the metro our best opportunity to see the tail end of these storms would likely occur closer to midnight or even later.  If a complex of storms does push through eastern areas it would likely at the very least send an outflow boundary through many locations.  This would have the potential of keeping some eastern and northeastern areas a bit cooler on Monday(which isn't a bad thing!).  If storms do push through tonight they could produce locally heavy rainfall once again...while others will miss out all together. 

If the clouds clear early on Monday and there aren't any strange outflow boundaries floating around the metro could see its hottest day so far this year.  Temperatures should reach the 97-99 degree range...with maybe a few spots hitting 100(like Olathe or possibly Downtown if everything works out perfect).  With tropical dew points in the 70s sticking around for Monday the heat index will be over 105 degrees in many locations.  This is why part of the viewing area is under a Heat Advisory for Monday afternoon and early evening.  Here is a list of counties under the advisory.

Johnson(KS), Jackson, Platte, Clay, Wyandotte, Cass, Bates, Linn, Miami, Leavenworth, Atchison(KS & MO), Andrew, Buchanon, Doniphan, Clinton, Ray, Lafayette, and Henry.

Here is part of the headline from the NWS in regards to the heat.

A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF WESTERN MISSOURI AND ADJACENT EASTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A TROPICAL AIRMASS ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

If you are working or playing outside on Monday you know the drill to beat the heat.  But just a reminder to take frequent breaks, drink plenty of water or non-alcoholic beverages, and try not to forget about your pets...the heat affects them too!

Relief will arrive on Tuesday as the remnants of what was once Hurricane Dolly arrive.  With the tropical dew points in place the potential for heavy downpours will exist.  Any location that finds itself in one of these thunderstorms could see a quick 1-2" of rain.  Highs Tuesday may stay in the upper 80s.  Here is a look at the 18Z GFS forecast map for Tuesday.  The 'X' represents the location of disturbance(Dolly).

 

A lot to think about over the next couple of days but I guess this beats a 'typical' Kansas City summer with extended periods of dry/hot weather.  This summer has been anything but dull when it comes to the weather.

Finally, thank you to everyone who sent in rain totals and hail pictures from Saturday!  I'm glad that stuff missed my car!  Stay cool!

Jeremy

Published Sunday, July 27, 2008 4:14 PM by Jeremy WxPlus

Comments

 

farmgirl said:

So is the heat advisory until Wednesday??? Or did the NWS mean Sunday? Either way it is toasty out there.

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Heat advisory is only for Monday.

Jeremy

July 27, 2008 5:18 PM
 

A dogg said:

Wow, monday sounds nasty! Oh well, it is summer.
July 27, 2008 5:23 PM
 

Brocksmama said:

Geesh it's oppressive out there!!  Can't imagine what tomorrow will feel like!  I'm gonna have to get out early to walk the dog!!
July 27, 2008 5:39 PM
 

juba said:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cFkae0j_Ns&feature=related - Entertainer

Maple Leaf Rag (Top)

I Like Heat, All  my life there has been at least "one" hundered degree day where I've lived! Tomarrow might make me have a first in my life!
July 27, 2008 6:09 PM
 

DPannell said:

Hi Jeremy,
It was indeed a HOT day at the K, I loved it!  We sat just a few rows back of the Royals dugout, great seats and super game, Go Royals!  
--deb

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deb,

Glad you enjoyed the game even though it was hot!  I was at a Brewers/Twins game in Miwaukee a few years ago and it was 98 that day and very humid.  Days like that in Milwaukee are pretty rare.  It was almost too hot to have a cold beverage at the game;)

Jeremy

July 27, 2008 6:21 PM
 

LRCfan said:

looks like eastern missouri and maybe st. louis are on path to get some thunderstorms pretty quiet here there is an outflow boundary into western iowa.

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We'll have to see if the outflow kicks off more storms.  Otherwise it may just be a warm and dry night.

Jeremy

July 27, 2008 7:36 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Looks like it is going to be a bumpy night here in Marceline. I have been watching the anvils from those storms north of me for several hours so far.

Jeremy, what are your thoughts for Marceline tonight?

Alex Pickman

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Alex,

Can you take a picture of the storms and email it to me?  They are nasty and you want nothing to do with them.  A history of producing softball size hail.  I think you either get grazed or just missed.  These are supercells and a characteristic of supercells is they often turn right.  If it starts turning more right then it might move closer to you...but right now it looks to stay just east.

Jeremy

July 27, 2008 7:47 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Jeremy, will you be cooking eggs on the hood of your car tomorrow?  Seems like it is that time of year for the media to be doing silly things to show the heat...

LOL.

We can both agree we need exactly 97 tomorrow at KMCI.  Once we get that, I don't see it getting that hot for awhile.  I see the high pressure taking its spot a bit further SW for awhile and we continue the NW flow.  

If it can be believed, this is the not the dominant NW flow, but becomes more entrenched..and stronger, next week.  So far, i am not seeing this years LRC bust yet.   Look at this image...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_078.shtml

The trough axis is dead on for this year's longwave...it is still here..and shows itself a few more times as you go through a few more days out.

We are going to get ALOT of NW flow through August.  But - then again...per the LRC, we knew that.

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I can't quite remember...but didn't Gary mention that he believes the cycle last until August or September and then fades?  I'm cheering on 97 for tomorrow. 

The hail in north-central MO is insane right now!

Jeremy

July 27, 2008 7:51 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Jeremy, everything is in play with the LRC as it relates to its demise, transition and rebirth.  We did observe it going into September last year as the new one started in mid August...

Or...as it transitioned...semantics.  it doesn't abruptly end or start...I guess that is my response...

With just a bit of focus right now, with the current CAPEs, updrafts can be very impressive...and they would have to be to get up to the current freezing levels!

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I'm trying to get some pictures for the 10 p.m. show...and let me tell you with our setup right now I am very glad that huge hail stayed just outside our viewing area!  Continuous coverage would be a challenge:)

Jeremy

July 27, 2008 8:01 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Jeremy,

I will email a few pics of mammatus clouds tomorrow.

Alex

*****************

Alex,

Please send them to my email account and Gary's.  If you have time I'll check them out tonight.

Jeremy

July 27, 2008 8:24 PM
 

weathermom said:

I'm thinking that as far east as those storms are, there's no way K.C. metro will see any rain tonight.  Am I on the right track?!  Guess I'll go water.

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I think I would water.  The main action went well east...only hope is the outflow kicking off some storms.

Jeremy

July 27, 2008 8:27 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

No doubt about the coverage challenges, Jeremy...
July 27, 2008 8:47 PM
 

StormWyndd said:

wow, that sure looks like a nasty bow echo descending on st. louis.  Wouldn't want to be over there right now.
July 27, 2008 9:02 PM
 

FairwayMed said:

Jeremy,

I see that you have the prediction of 60% chance of rain on tuesday. I have a moving truck coming to my house at 9 AM on tuesday and was wondering if we would be affected by the rain or if that chance of rain is more for the afternoon evening. Any prediction on that would be fantastic, I wont hold it against you if you are wrong I would just really like to have some idea of the chances.

Thanks!!

Mark

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Mark,

Tuesday will likely have some scattered showers and storms around the area.  It is impossible to pin down who will see the rain.  It will be pop up stuff that could produce heavy downpours.  Could be lots of stuff scattered around that day.  The earlier you start on Tuesday the better.

Jeremy

July 27, 2008 9:10 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

looks like a scorcher for tomorrow...

...although, scott, i forsee an official high of 98 tomorrow...and then we can go back down to the low 90's for a couple more weeks ;)
July 27, 2008 9:58 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Seeing some decent rotation on the west side of the St. Louis bow near Moberly.  Its really tough to tell what is near the surface as it is kinda in a radar hole...no doubt even with the lowest beam it is hitting the mid levels..

I am not seeing gate to gate, but more broad rotation..but strong at that....

I wonder what is being measured at St. Louis?  I am tracking this one...
July 27, 2008 9:58 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

pvt - downtown will give you your 98.  KMCI will be 97.  ;--)
July 27, 2008 9:59 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Jeremy, That storm SE of me in Marceline looks like a monster.

Alex

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Alex,

That is the same supercell that produced the softball size hail earlier this evening.  That thing means business!

Jeremy

July 27, 2008 10:05 PM
 

mike7800 said:

Well I want to mow hay tomorrow and bale it on tuesday and wednesday. Just wondered if we was going to get wet in Marshall? Mike

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Mike,

Great to hear from someone in Marshall!  I would say the odds are pretty good that you see rain anywhere from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.  Not sure the amount, but you should see something.  Your best chance for rain is late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Jeremy

July 27, 2008 10:06 PM
 

Randy Cooper said:

hey jeremy,
went chasing earlier when the tornado warnings went off. didnt see much, a low wall cloud around milan, and thats about it. i only took a couple pics of the huge anvil to the north as it was crossing the missouri iowa border. i'll send them if you want.
July 27, 2008 10:19 PM
 

chieffan07 said:

Do we have any chance of severe weather tonight or into Monday morning?

Thanks

***********************

Very doubtful in KC.  Storms should stay N & E. 

Jeremy

July 27, 2008 10:23 PM
 

chieffan07 said:

Thanks Jeremy
July 27, 2008 10:45 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Very interesting cloud features with this next storm just east of me. There appears to be many lowered bases just ahead of the rain. There is also a ton of lightning.

What are the chances of development between the occurring storms to lets as far west as Chillicothe?

Marceline has been so close to being hit twice now.

Alex
July 27, 2008 11:38 PM
 

Randy Cooper said:

Alex,
NWS just issued a new t-storm watch for us until 6 AM. Although we are at the very bottom of the watch. lol. I am in Chillicothe.
July 27, 2008 11:48 PM
 

Randy Cooper said:

more storms are quickly developing in southern iowa heading this way. i see why they issued that watch now. anybody gonna stay up with me? lol
July 28, 2008 12:00 AM
 

chieffan07 said:

Hey Randy, I'm still up with ya. lol. I live in Liberty though.
July 28, 2008 12:15 AM
 

Randy Cooper said:

o well at least somebodys with me. i dont have to work tomorrow so i plan on staying up til the storms get here. lol. im estimating they will make here by 2 or 230.
July 28, 2008 12:40 AM
 

soonergirl said:

I go to school in Oklahoma and I've noticed this summer that KC is much more humid than OKC. Can you tell me what causes this?
July 28, 2008 12:51 AM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Randy, I will be up with you as well. I live about 35 miles east in Marceline, and those storms in Iowa are growing in coverage, and may make it through our area.

looks to be a long, interesting night!!

Alex
July 28, 2008 12:58 AM
 

chieffan07 said:

Yeah Randy, I go to college and I also have a free day tomorrow so I plan on stayin up for a while to watch these storms on radar. Hopefully they wont be too severe when they go through your area.
July 28, 2008 1:07 AM
 

chieffan07 said:

Hey, is it just me or does it look like that huge line of storms is starting to move south west toward the KC metro area?
July 28, 2008 1:34 AM
 

Randy Cooper said:

i just graduated from a community college so im done for a while, just workin full time at walmart automotive and have a day off tomorrow. looks like i might have called it right. they ll be here around 2. Alex, brace yourself! lol jk.
July 28, 2008 1:35 AM
 

Randy Cooper said:

hey alex are you seeing any lightning up to your north? they are closing in fast but theres no lightning that i see.
July 28, 2008 1:41 AM
 

chieffan07 said:

Well Congratulations. I will graduate from William Jewell College, here in Liberty, in May of next year. Looks like you have about 15min until those storms reach you.
July 28, 2008 1:49 AM
 

Randy Cooper said:

i dont like what i see up north! one tornado warning, and now theres another rotation just to the south of that one headin our direction. i wonder if they will last.
July 28, 2008 1:50 AM
 

Randy Cooper said:

i dont know why im worrying. that storm is at least 2 hours away. i just get nervous cuz ive been in a tornado at night. scared me to death! even though im a chaser i still found it terrifying at night when i couldnt see a thing!

Alex, are you seein anything to your north. theyre closin in.
July 28, 2008 1:56 AM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Chieffan:

The storms are accelerating a little bit toward te Southwest. inally, Marceline is going to get something decent, even though e absolutly dont need the rain, I like it!!

Maybe I wont have to stay up too late tonight, as the storms are now moving, but they may stall, so we will have to wait and see.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is what I am experiencing as the storms approach!...

WOW, I am watching TWC for some odd reason, and they just showed the estimated precip, and had nothing for MO. Maybe it just hasnt been updated in a while, but that just surprised me all of the sudden. lol

Looking at the radar, the line moving my way has lost a bit of its intensity, possibly from the rain cooled air from the earlier storms, but none the less, there is still a lot of heavy rain with it.

I am going to make a rainfall estimate for Marceline: I wil say 2.20 inches.

And just as I said they were losing intensity, I went and looked at wunderground, and they are strengthening as they enter Linn County, and near Marceline =] =] =]!!

Estimated precip is showing 4 inches over the same areas that recieved 9-12 inches the other day, so flooding is likely going to be an issue again.

Wind just started picking up here in Marceline! Wunderground radar is showing an outflow boundary muving through. I just went outside, and it is almost here!

I will update when the rain begins, there is a lot of lightning in this.

Alex from Marceline
July 28, 2008 2:00 AM
 

Randy Cooper said:

thanks for sharing alex. keep us posted. i will start sharing my experiences when it arrives also. which wont be too long by the looks of my  radar.
July 28, 2008 2:05 AM
 

chieffan07 said:

Yeah, I know what you mean Randy. I was woken up one night a couple of years ago by a Tornado at about 2:30 in the morning. That was the scariest thing I've ever been through. I'm sure the storms in Iowa will weaken before they get close to you all.
July 28, 2008 2:05 AM
 

Randy Cooper said:

the front edge should be arriving right now for you alex.
July 28, 2008 2:08 AM
 

lezakEF5 said:

The first raindrops have just started to fall, and they are very large. Lightning bolt also just hit next to my house, and there was another bolt in about the same spot.

Alex
July 28, 2008 2:10 AM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Randy, there are lightning bolts striking all around around me, and line appears to be strengthening. the rain is now getting heavy. It isnt consistent yet though...

It may be quite strong by the time it reaches chilly.

Alex
July 28, 2008 2:13 AM
 

Randy Cooper said:

the wind just picked up quite abit here. im seeing alot of lightning over in alex's direction. look like your gettin hammered alex. your just now gettin into the worst of it. looks like whats up north will slowly start to drift my way.
July 28, 2008 2:15 AM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Any lightning yet Randy, you should be seeing it by now. Very heavy rain here in Marceline!

Alex
July 28, 2008 2:17 AM
 

TeacherInStJoe said:

Okay, I just have to say I have never seen this happen before. It is currently pouring down rain with thunder and lightning in St. Joe, but yet depending on whose radar you look out it doesn't show anything going on. KSHB's radar is only one that shows a tiny little speck.  Very strange.. It obviously popped up very quickly.
July 28, 2008 3:49 AM
 

JennIrat said:

Have received a 1/2" of rain this morning so far here in Easton MO  The lightening and thunder have started back up.

Jennifer
July 28, 2008 5:36 AM
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