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its quite breezy out there! and i have heard a couple rumbles of thunder...

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I just posted the surface map.  The question is will our high be 88, 93,or 97 today?

Gary

We have received 1/2" of rain so far here in Easton, MO.   The rain has started again with thunder and lightening....

2/10 of an inch in on again off again thunder storms. since about 3:45. rather soggy dog walking.

Thunder and Lightening north of Leavenworth now, almost no wind. Leaves are all turned upside down, so according to old wives tales, this means we will see some liquid sunshine this morning.
Off subject, was great meeting you on the flight to Chicago Gary, Hope you enjoyed your trip and the concert!!!

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It was nice meeting you too!  And, the concert was more than just awesome!  Thanks.

Gary

It's raining Neptunes out there! Probably i1"-1 1/2" sized Rain DROPS!

It just rained in Olathe, A few minutes ago. I went outside around 7am this morning, sitting and waiting for any signs of hummingbirds. I know they here, they are getting my feeders,but I haven't seen them yet. It felt good out there, and I was already thinking T-storms are around. I could see the building clouds a little bit.

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Andrew,

It is an amazing morning when you consider that everyone forecasted, perhaps, the hottest day of the year.  I am quite surprised, but considering how strong the thunderstorms were to our northeast and east last night, it shouldn't be that surprising.

Gary

I'm loving this.  It's the end of July, and my lawn hasn't burned up yet!!

A cooler and wetter summer...just as predicted!

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Yes, and now we have a tropical system heading our way on Tuesday.

Gary

My dog almost snagged a cicada this morning, but missed it as it was able to fly away.  He sure loves those crunchy critters.  I love the weather variables this year...variety!

Well it's sure nice to have cooler weather and much needed RAIN this time of year.  I'll take any break from the high heat and humidity.

there's no surer bet for rain then to put the tent up...although it was a nice shower but it didn't register anything in the rain guage

Just took the dog out for a walk in the rain- he is certainly loving this cooler morning!  It is hard to believe as cool as it is right now that it might get into the upper 90's today!  My guess is 88˚ for the high today - wish,wish,wish...!  Dea

Hi Gary, since my wife and I own a small Foundation Repair business, and the rain plays a major factor, we would like to know how many days it has rained in the Kansas City area so far in 2008.  Thank you, Scott

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I will check on this later on in the day.  Email me and I will send you the answer.  Lezak@nbcactionnews.com

Gary

Mesoscale suprises.  Waking up this morning with light rain, moderate NE breeze, and temps in the mid 60s, it was an 'uh oh' moment.

88 is fair...I don't think the clouds and outflow will wash out fast enough to get warmer.  Doesn't this just seem like the pattern in the last month?

I am not seeing major breakdowns yet of the LRC, but am starting to see some newer patterns begin...

Transition is great...this NW flow will continue to be a headache for you all!  Also, I am thinking it becomes a part of the new pattern...but where shall we draw the longwave?

Must keep watching...

I'm curious how we're under an Orange Alert from MARC?  Did they put this ozone forecast together two days ago and not bother to look outside or check the radar this morning.  Who makes these forecasts?

http://www.marc.org/Environment/airQ/skycast.asp

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The forecast from MARC for today is about as bad as it gets.  The outflow boundary blew that forecast out the window.  We just have not had any air pollution problems this summer yet. 

And, Sara Croke and the company Weather or Not makes their forecasts.

Gary

"A cooler and wetter summer...just as predicted!"

Isn't perception amazing?  Since there is no way to objectively validate a cooler and wetter summer from a regional perspective[not worth the argument], perception is all we got.

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Scott,

It is a cooler, wetter summer.  The temperatures may be near average because of high humidity and warmer morning lows, but so far it has been a very wet summer for most areas, especially for Chillicothe, Trenton, and up into the corn belt!  It isn't just perception, it is reality.  And, after the remnants of Dolly move by Tuesday night some spots will be near a 10 to15 inch July.

Gary

Try this site... http://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm

looking at the data on this site objectively, you see that it has indeed been cooler and wetter in the region for the last two months.

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Thanks RDUB!

Gary

Do you know yet how long you expect this rain to hang around?? We have a pool party scheduled for 7:30 tonight. I sure hope it is gone by then....errrrr!!!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

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Monica,

It will be out of here by early to mid afternoon.  It is just a crazy weather day.

Gary

Gary - by your response alone, you go with near normal temps.  As far as the rainfall, lets go with consensus perception - how many people's grass is starting to brown up?

How many rain days have we had in July?

Look...for every site that broadbrushes regional averages, I can show you specific site data that can contradict it.

It isn't worth the argument.  It is always going to be a subjective claim when validating a forecast for a region and not a specific point.

Not trying to argue, but it is a moot point..and I give up.  I recognize perception is stronger than any point to point reality in the region.

June was above average on temps and below average on rainfall per KMCI.  That one point in the region would not jive with any painted regional maps.  There are other locations as well that would be in allignment with the findings at KMCI in the region.  It could be said that is a representation of the regional averages.

On the flip side, many areas were above average on rainfall and below temps.  I am not naive to see this..but to verify any one forecast for a region is always going to have controversy since a point of reference was never provided.

As far as July, those on the south side of the region, it has been hot.  Hot hot hot.  Olathe broke 100 degrees already.  Those in the N parts, it has been cooler.

How does this reconsile?  Maybe provide a CPC type map to make it fit?

It doesn't matter..whatever we think it is...it is.

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Good try Scott!

Gary

Who would have thunk it. My wife had to quickly return from her morning walk down our country lane to retrieve her jacket!  My grass is as lush and green as it was in June. It's like living in Seattle this summer. What a blessing!
These cool and breezy mornings just days away from August make the hot days survivable.  Bring on Dolly!

Scott, go back and look at the two months, both July and June, and find me a station that has been both above average in temperature and below average for the combined two months.

Yes, June was slightly below average at KCI for precip. But if you look at the two months of June and July, i.e. summer so far, you see that KCI is above average for the time period by about an inch. And Olathe is above average by about 2 inches for that same period.

You criticize Gary and others for validating by perception, but you do the exact same thing. 'The south side has been hot. Hot hot hot.' Well, not really. Again, if you look at the two months of June and July combined, the south side has been close to, or slightly below, normal. Sure, we have had some hot days, and some people have wished they had more rain, but that's just perception. The reality is that we have had more rain than average for the past two months.

Well MARC needs to find a more reliable ozone forecast company, because Weather or NOT ACCURATE just made themselves look like total fools.  Sadly there are people and organizations, not myself, that cancel or change their outdoor activities based on these forecasts.  Ooops!

Scott, I'm not smart enough to get into any meteorological arguments (heck I'm not even sure I spelled that right).

All I know is that when gary made his summer forcast last spring, I posted something like "Yay! I hate it when my lawn burns up in July"  Something along those lines, I'm not going to look it up.

Sure enough, so far that has held true.  

So it's my perception AND my reality  <grin>

The fact that people's lawns are browning up does not indicate below average precip, by the way. The cool-season grasses that are common in people's lawns are not well suited to an average summer in KC. Even in an above-average summer for precipitation, these grasses can go dormant for a while. That's typical.

Scott -
For "Not trying to argue", you've sure put up a lot of words!

RDub -
Thanks for the midwest climate maps link - that's an interesting and useful site I hadn't seen before this morning.

Gary -
Thanks for the props on my description of CAPE the other day - it is a term that is fairly loaded, but when one breaks it down, it actually makes a lot of sense and is a fairly interesting variable to consider.

Also - you promised a review of the Coldplay Chicago show...other than that it was great, any other comments?  I posted in your earlier thread, but that was when you were out of town, I believe.  We've got great tickets for the Sprint Center show in November and are ready for it.  We're glad the July show got postponed since we were out of town at the time.  Did you see them when they came to Bonner Springs the last time through in 2005?  I thought they had a remarkable live show - including stunning lights/video.

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I will give my review in the afternoon blog!  And, again, Notes, your description of CAPE will be used in future blogs as well. 

Gary

Does this storm today do any thing to change tommrow? Also, what time of day are you expecting to say hello dolly in our area? This is truly a strange day. It feels like October outside. Not only is the weather crazy people including myself are acting strange.

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I will answer your question in a blog coming soon.

Gary

andrew,

i meant to tell you yesterday, but i saw 2 hummingbirds yesterday evening enjoying my alyssum.  i tend to see them in the late afternoon on the east side of my house(shadowed) into the early evening.  they like the drier days i think.  or atleast they seem to be more active on those types of days.  hope that helps in your search!

are you guys referring to me?  All I'm trying to find out is how many days it has rained in the year 2008.

Wow this mornings rain shower was a surprise! A very pleasent one, mind you, just a surprise. Last I heard there was zero or next to zero chance for rain today. When I heard the distant thunder I thought it must be a neighbor. I had now idea what a neighbor could be doing that make thunder sounds... Then I awoke all confused to a strange sound, it was rain going down the downspout on the rain gutters. It took me a minute to figure out what it was as I was not expecting rain. Sure loved the surprise though! Oh, and put me down as one who has not had to water my lawn yet. The butterfly gardens yes, lawn, no.
Audra in Lee's Summit

Hi there...Only 0.20" of rain over here in East Lawrence. As allways, any rain is appreciated.

Ray

Andrew - you probably already know this, but I'll tell you anyway (quick because it isn't weather related!) - hummingbirds (at least ours) feed fairly early in the morning (around 6:30 or so), and in the evening closer to dusk.  Rarely will they come in the heat of the day.  Also, the sweeter the sugar water is, the less often they will feed.  So make it a little less sweet!  :)  Laura

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