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Just a brief carryover..well..not so brief....

Well well well…Rdub, you are on a roll.  You present an interesting point.  And with due respect, one that is difficult to prove otherwise.  For that kudos.

Rdub, you are a prepared and detailed person providing fact to back up your thoughts, and for that it is always a challenge and joy to go back and forth with you.

Finding data to support my claim is difficult to your question prior.  Probably more difficult because of what data is available that is deemed reliable or accurate.  To detail the anomalies, it must be provided.  Half of the reporting points in the EAX area do not provide this data, so I am a bit handcuffed here.  That said, half do, so that should be a representation, right?

So..here is what I found with this caveat.  Assuming the cool/wet forecast was geared to the viewing area, it is about the same size as the reporting stations within the EAX coverage area.  So, I am using that data.

Temperatures
June -  4 of the 5 reporting stations in the region that provide anomaly data were ABOVE average temps.
July -  4 of the 5 reporting stations in the region that provide anomaly data were BELOW average temps.

Precipitation
June – 4 of the 5 reporting stations in the region that provide anomaly data were ABOVE average precip.
July -  3 of the 5 reporting stations in the region that provide anomaly data were BELOW average precip.

• if you removed ONE anomalous day in July, it would be 4 out of 5. – but alas..it all counts ;-)

So – based on the above…how can you tell me that it has been wet and cool from a regional perspective?  I think the best representation is that it has been wet in parts and cool in parts, but not in a general sense consistent through the entire region.

As far as me validating perception, you are right.  When thinking hot hot hot, I am thinking of the last week or so for the southern areas and can point to several blog entries asserting the same thing.  Is it real or perception?

Is it hot when it is 100 in Olathe and 88 at KMCI?  What is reality?  Depends on where you plant your feet, I suppose.  Was the blog entry that day how cool it was at KMCI or how hot it was at Olathe?  

Was the forecast accurate with mid 90s for those downtown and south or incorrect for those north of the river?  The value of the newscast is to explain/show the gradient, but at the end of the day, only one temperature is recorded for the forecast value…and the same one that is used for Weatherate that is the “accuracy meter”, right?

It is all perception if there is not a single point to reference.

Its interesting how this shows a slightly different picture than the link you provided…

http://water.weather.gov/index.php

If you look at the EAX WFO for the anomalies in the last 60 days, it is pretty patching for above, normal, and below for this region regarding precip.

Yes, Notes – “For "Not trying to argue", you've sure put up a lot of words!”  This is true.  I was hoping to skate out with a general observation, but got called on it…

Anyway…this can be argued to the nth degree.  It is a battle I won’t ever win…LOL.  All I know is that my grass is brown for whatever reason [too hot, too dry, too wet, too cool, bad drainage, wrong grass, etc.] and it has seemed to be pretty hot and muggy this month.  Probably a site out there that will prove that wrong too.

;-)  LOL

Scott, why are you splitting June and July and looking at them separately? That creates an artificial and unnecessary division when talking about summer as a whole. Look at the combined precip amounts for June + July and you will see that 5 of 5 stations are above average for that time period.

And as I mentioned before, the fact that your grass is brown does not mean we are below average in precip. Look back at the advice that Jeff Hamons posted a while back. He said that a typical lawn needs 1.5" of water per week, over 6" per month. That's more than average rainfall will provide, and when you consider that rainfall is never spread out evenly...it's no surprise that some lawns would turn brown. Mine hasn't but some have.

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Rdub,

Great point again.  It has rained many days on the south side of the city this month, but not enough to keep the grass green.  If you take a tour from Kearney, MO south down I-35 to Olathe you will see lush green slowly turn a bit brown.  KCI will likely end up above 6 inches for the month, just enough to keep things green up north.  But, still above average on rainfall.

Gary

Gary, 1.5 inches of rain here in Marceline.

Alex

Rdub, you are right.  

Let me state it again.  You are right.

I think this illistrates how data can be manipulated different ways to make claim of accuracy to virtually any forecast.  We see other examples through the view of GW.

Temps are about average and the general area rainfall is above average.  It will be interesting to see what August brings if dominated by a NW flow.

Gary,

0.77 inches of rain this morning in sedalia. Is tuesday or wednesday morning better to do outdoor activities?

Scott -- I don't think ANYONE can EVER predict the weather to pinpoint accuracy!  If they could, their name would be God!  Having said that -- could YOU do a more accurate weather report?  If so -- please let me know what the weather is going to be like on Saturday - the dogs need a bath and I don't want to give them one Friday night if it's going to rain on Saturday!  Oh, and I need it with 100% accuracy - not 20% or 30% or 40% or whatever -- it's 100% or 0%!

(And you KNOW I'm just messing with you don't you?  I'm SMILING!)  Laura

I am trying to figure out the load forecast for the entire city.   I appreciate the updates.     Do you expect the sun to peak thru any today - that will change our load by 300+ mw's !

Jokelly

"I think this illistrates how data can be manipulated different ways to make claim of accuracy to virtually any forecast" Ok, I need to work on this skill in time for the Labor Day competition...heh heh.

I think we do need to see what August brings before coming to a final conclusion...if August dries out completely we could still end up below normal for precip.

Hi Gary! I'm glad you had such a good time at the cold play contest. I have an important question for you. a close friend of mine wants to know how much snow we accumulated during the 2005-2006 winter season and the 2006-2007 winter season, I cannot find this information anywhere. I know there are a lot of smart bloggers here so I know I can trust you to help me here to, but if you could get me that information that would be great. Thanks a whole lot.

Jonathan

lol I meant cold play CONCERT geez I'm such a dummy lol.

Gary, funny you should mention the GFS and the remnants of Dolly. This is what the HPC's model discussion had to say: THE GFS HAS HAD NO CLUE AND STILL DOES NOT AND SHOULD BE BASICALLY BE THROWN OUT. THUS CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE MOST CURRENT VERSION OF THE ECMWF AND NAM OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

Nice Hummerseeker.  If you could just provide the exact location and times needed....

LOL.

As far as your claim about pinpoint accuracy?  While not God - Weatherbug, WSI, and Jim Giles? think they can do this...  LMAO

http://weather.weatherbug.com/aws-corporate/releases/2005/release_08092005a.asp

http://www.wsi.com/media/solutions/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Giles_(meteorologist)

[search each article for "pinpoint"]

Rdub, I think with those involved in the Labor Day forecasting contest, you will be hard pressed to make any hay with perception management.  We both know that one...LOL


August is the key

Scotty, any chance you could help me out with my inquiry? PLLLEEEEEEASEEE??=D

Hail Jonathan, you're not a dummy!  This particular blog includes info on both the concert and the contest.  It was an easy switch.

yeah I do that stuff all the time, I found KCI's records for snowfall but I can't find Overland Park's records for snowfall and I know in last years case there was at least a 10 inch difference between KCI and Overland Park's seasonal snowfall total

Does anyone know if that blob of rain to our west is going to get here or disappear before it does?  The kids are wanting to go to WOF and I dont wanna go in the rain.

Scott - would a metes and bounds location work?  He he

Scott - would a metes and bounds location work?  He he

Good afternoon bloggers,

Kudos to all of you with the higher precip this summer:)  For the rest of you with your lawns turning brown....I'm right there with ya!  I am so happy we did get a slight douse of rain this morning...I'm hoping for more.  I've resorted to watering my lawn twice a day the past couple of weeks.  I dread doing that.  But out here in NW Olathe, the grassy areas have turned brown.  Not too pretty but it's expected when you're a near miss w/the rain.  Funny...on Saturday afternoon at College Blvd. and Woodland there was a little rain shower but a mile down the road...nothing!  Bone dry.

sorry to all...I'm taking down the tent so the rain chances have decreased. Let me know if I need to let anyone borrow it.  No matter when I put it up...it rains!  

anyone?

Jonathan - no bones on Overland Park.  Not sure where to find that without quite a bit more research.  KMCI is much easier as it is an official reporting station with much more complied data...

Here is KMCI...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/localclimate/seasrank/snowseason.php

As far as OP..much of that data seems to be missing off the CF6 data...best guess would be using downtown.

http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=eax

CF6 data

Otherwise, perhaps others can find it...

yeah I figured that would be a problem but I appreciate you trying buddy! I'll check out your downtown results and see what they are compared to KCI's.

please anyone?  Is this blob of rain going to stick together and make it this way or break up?  Thanks!

Part of the problem with snow is, it can't be measured using an automated station...or estimated by radar...you really need to have boots on the ground to measure it. So I think that's why there is less data for snowfall than total precip...

bewild79 -

This is the perfect day to goto WOF.  Monday + cool summer day = No waiting for rides.  We used to do that all the time growing up.  

Hailjohnathan,  
The KC average for snowfall that fell across the metro:
04-05   12"
05-06   10.33"
06-07   25.38"

Hail, I think I found something useful.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ussc/index.jsp

US Snow Climatology...it looks like it has Olathe and Stillwell as stations in Johnson County KS.

Thanks Garyb and RDub!

if you want to bring a bucket up here gary, i will be glad to share with you..

this month


Rain: last Hour: 0.00 in. ; Day: 1.06 in. Month: 8.90 in.; Year: 36.79 in.      
Avg/Depp.: Month: 3.46 in. / 5.433 in.; Year: / 16.787 In.    
Days Since Last Rain: 0 Days    
Days With Rain: Month: 11 Days; Year: 64

by month:
feb: Rainfall for month        1.14  in.
march: Rainfall for month        2.01 in.; diff from climate av. :-0.47 in.
          Rainfall for year         4.11 in.; diff from climate av. -0.65 in.

April:
Rainfall for month        6.77 in.; diff from climate av. :3.58 in.
Rainfall for year         10.88 in.; diff from climate av. 2.93 in.

May:
Rainfall for month        6.06 in.; diff from climate av. :0.94 in.
Rainfall for year         16.94 in.; diff from climate av. 3.87 in.

june:
Rainfall for month        10.94 in.; diff from climate av. :7.48 in.
Rainfall for year         27.89 in.; diff from climate av. 11.35 in.

July so far:
Rainfall for month        7.83 in.; diff from climate av. :4.37 in.
Rainfall for year         35.72 in.; diff from climate av. 15.72 in.

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Where do you live?  I can't remember.

Gary

I feel bad for all the weather forecasters today. I keep hearing people out today say..."We were under a heat advisory today, obviously weather forecasters don't know anything"..blah blah. Obviously those people don't stop to think about the fact that our weather is dynamic and can change unexpectedly.

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Yes, and today was affected by a strong outflow of rain cooled air, that was not excpected from the east.  The trick for today's forecast was to realize this as early as possible.  Brett Anthony started dropping our forecast high little by little at 5:15 AM.  We never realized it would only be 80 degrees. Wow!

Gary

It looks like convective hi jinx have put the stopper to the heat again!
Last night around 3 a.m. I took one last look at the radar and seen the storms in Iowa and north central Missouri and they were still a ways away so I decided to go to bed thinking that if they got here it would be sun up and they would die any way, well just after 3:30 I noticed a flash and I heard a faint rumble, so I looked out the window and it had started to rain and it there was lightning and thunder!  it was really neat how the new storms formed west of the southwest heading main line and they formed further south and west, but the individual cells would then move east-northeast into the main line which was falling apart but still trying to head to the south and west!  Well I see mid and upper 90's are back in the forecast... for now;)

We are about 3 hours north of KC on I-35 and will be returning to KC on Tuesday.  When will the rain start?  We do not like driving in rain with our motor home.

Diane C

Scott, I think the one that struck me was "already have had 100-degree day".  It's just about the time that temperatures begin to cool down. Just one is pretty good for this area.

Oh geeze, I am so jealous of you.  Seriously.  Coldplay is my favorite band in the world and I pretty much know all of the new songs by heart already.  Their concerts look absolutely fantastic!  I wouldn't be so jealous but I'm not going to get to go to the KC concert so I'm really, really bummed out.

Viva la Vida is a great song!  Thanks for giving us this little rundown of the concert.... I love hearing anything about them!

~Tasha

marlina, when you're off by 20 degrees in a 1-day forecast (as everyone was), I think you have to expect comments like that.

A much-needed 1.44" fell early today here in beautiful downtown Emma, Missouri. Coupled with the previous two "events," we've had a bit more than 2" of rain from last Tuesday through today. After the excesses of late spring and early summer's storms, the crops' needs weren't readily apparent. However, the way the beans and corn have perked up shows just how much of the upper soil moisture had vanished.

Walt Snyder

I'm glen in trenton.. sorry

Hi Gary, do you have any thoughts about how much rain the kc area will receive tomorrow thru wed? thanks kristy

Gotta agree with Ronnie but to be fair most got it all wrong this weekend. No watch for our immediate area Saturday and me and my friends get hit with a hailstorm and we all left in different directions before 7:00. I was home and fuming before a warning ever went out for Wyandotte County 30-45 minutes later. A friend in Johnson County said they were watching all the rain and lightning and hail and nothing was showing up as a warning there either until later, AFTER the rain had mostly stopped and the hail was over. Then today is supposed tio be wicked hot but we wake up to rain and cooler weather all day. Nobody could get that before they got up today and predict it? I know I'll get clunked by some but these things so close together made me field lots of questions from persons asking me what happened to my reliable weather.
I know weather is ever changing but come on. Two out of three days things get messed up and everyone says oh what a surprise that this moved in or this happened? Y'ad think the night before or even hours before an event someone would get it. Anyways. JMHO.

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We understand the frustration.  But, really the only way to forecast today correctly would have been around 5 AM when it was obvious that it was a strong outflow boundary.  But, even at this time, I would have expected the temperature to recover back up to near 90.  And, Saturday was quite tricky as well.  It is amazing how many large hail events we have had this year.

We will get back on the right track, but the forecast for the next two days is again quite tricky.

Gary

Really today I'm kinda happy it didn't get that hot. The air is off and there's a beautiful rainbow in the sky. I'm mostly mad at the NWS for SAturday cuz they left us out of the watch. Anyways, on to the next weather :)

Hi Gary-just wondering what the new data is showing for precipitation amounts for us here in the metro- can you tell us or will you show us at 10?

One other question- were are we with the LRC- what phase?

JP

Hey, that rain mass in western Kansas is looking pretty impressive at 11:30pm Monday night.

'S gonna be a grey week!