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Tropical moisture........wow this is reminding me of Florida.  Get the flip flops out, and the sun screen we are heading to the beach..... :>)   Glad you had a safe trip Gary, I bet you were amazed on how much the new weather center had come along by the time you came back......as always KUTGW (Keep up the good work).

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Thanks, and yes, when I walked in yesterday I was impressed.  We can't wait to start using it, just a few more days.

Gary

In their 6am update, the NWS is calling for some heavy rain this evening in the Haz Weather Outlook:

"THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL EXIST MAINLY TONIGHT WITH 1
TO 2 INCH RAINFALL POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A ST JOSEPH TO UNIONVILLE LINE.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OTHER THAN HEAVY RAINS IS UNLIKELY."

Do you agree with their forecast?

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Mike & Jenn,

The best chance of rain is tonight into Wednesday.  And, as I said in the blog, some spots will receive 1-3 inches of rain, but others will likely get under 1/4 inch.  This tropical system is caught in the part of the pattern that has produced most of the rain up north, but the flow is so weak aloft it is hard to pin down the most likely spot for heavy rain.  This is why you should try to spend some time watching our newscast tonight on NBC Action News.  I will cover it extensively on our shows.

Gary

Nice right now, we need rain!

Good Morning Gary! We recieved .21 yesterday from the morning thunderstorms in western KCK. Looking forward to more rain later on today, and hopefully the rain will stay away from the north eastern counties. It is time that Mother Nature share the love!

Bryan

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Bryan,

I agree!  It's our turn.  We will find out if Mother Nature is fair tonight.

Gary

Gary, will you be doing an update after Brett's 11:00 forecast or some time this afternoon?  I won't be by a TV to watch at 11:00. I guess if you can significantly "narrow down" where the heavy rains will be you'll update -- but if it's still to early and you don't have anything "new", then you won't?  I guess I can answer my own question that that's a safe assumption!  Sorry!  I'll just check back later!  Thanks - Laura

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Laura,

I have a couple of meetings today, and we will be analyzing the data and update the blog later on this afternoon or evening.  The NAM came out with a lot of rain for the KC metro area tonight.  We will be monitoring the situation to see if there are any signs of this developing.

Gary

The NWS is saying that we will get between 1-2" of rain this evening in the 64064 zip code. 64064 is in Lee's Summit, MO. I don't know if this helps anyone or even if those totals will change, but there it is.. They have highlighted most of the Metro and the surrounding areas as getting between 1-2 inches of rain.
Audra

Do you think there will be any destabiliztation along the I-35 corridor? NWS talks about it. Not sure if this is going to matter in the metro with all of the cloud cover today. This would rule out super cells right? Can't wait to see the new set. Are there going to be new graphics for the weather?

I didn't know it rained, missed most of the rain sheild though!

Gary,

It is 88 degrees with a 78 degree dewpoint here in Marceline. Is there any chance of severe weather today?

Alex in a very sticky Marceline

I might be going swimming today. 87 degrees, 78 degree dewpoint, and heat index: 99 degrees!!

Alex from Marceline

http://www.meted.ucar.edu/bmet_station_scientist.php

What an interesting picture!!

Yup! Sure is!!

Gary,

Did you know that just to my north, Denver is set to break an all-time record of number of consecutive 90 degree days this week?  Also, Denver is on pace to set an all-time record of least amount of precip. in a year as they currently only have 3.26" in the rain bucket so far.  These are records I want no part of.  Just to their north we are not quite that dry but plenty bad enough.  Is the KC area ahead or behind on precip. for the year?

Clearly, this year's LRC is not getting it done for Denver and the front range of the Rockies - do you see any relief on the horizon?

Thanks

Andrew, thanks for sharing that web site address!  It looks like it is chockful of so much interesting information that I will likely spend a good amount of time there taking it all in.  

" Is the KC area ahead or behind on precip. for the year?" Out West

I think overall we are technically ahead.  The KC area KSHB covers is so large.  Up North this year they have had too much rain.   In my area west of town, it has been about average.  I'm sure somewhere in the viewing area someone is down.  But at least we are getting rain.  I know Colorado has been dry for sometime.

i dont envy you outwest.

it looks like a lot of the dolly moisture is heading northwest of the KC area...
although i have a nice ENE'erly breeze running about 8-12 mph sustained.  temp is 75.8 outside...not bad for the middle of summer!

I hope I'm wrong but it looks like we missed the rain again

"Hello and Goodbye Dolly".  At least she left mild temps for a day or so.

Gary,
I know the LRC is in its dying day, if not finshed, but what do you think aobut August as far as precip and temps. I like to think that by the first weekin September the summer heat can be breaking and the worst over.

Fall cannot come to soon, and then bring on some SNOW action to the people that got left out last winter.

Yep...Just looked at radar and T-storms firing guess where...North Central and NE Missouri again. This is very discouraging. Gary, Hopefully the next blog will still give us some hope. : -)

Jeff

The water vapor image shows there is still a chance for rain to our east and southeast.  About 90% of the rain on the NWS radar is not making it to the ground.  It's like winter where we think we're gonna get 6" of snow and wake up to a dusting.  We'll see.  The last 5 days of forecasting has been difficult at best.

Another interesting day here in St. Joe, cloudy with a large area of light to mod. rain moving through the region, more like a fall or winter storm system, it will be interesting to see if heavier stuff forms, there is some but it is in Northeast Missouri.

We have to be careful watching Dolly.  She can dissapate and fire up again over KC and to our south and east.  I'm not ruling her out, but don't think we'll get 1-2" of rain in KC.  In either case, it's obvious we should enjoy the day as we go into the oven for the next several days...  

Nick Rau said:
Another interesting day here in St. Joe, cloudy with a large area of light to mod. rain moving through the region, more like a fall or winter storm system, it will be interesting to see if heavier stuff forms, there is some but it is in Northeast Missouri.

Living in Louisiana for 18 yrs that seems to be the norm for hurricanes and tropical storms once they move over land

i agree morrell...they definitely take on a 'fall feel' to them...

Havent really been on the blog due the Regestration for South and Watching about the Earthquake coverage in Southern Cali.

I see people saying that It isnt gonna rain and i see ppl saying to watch out for it.

GaryB - What makes you think the precip is all done from the current system?  Are you just going by radar trends?

They just issued a flash flood watch for the area good through Wednesday Afternoon.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=eax&wwa=flash%20flood%20watch

Morrell, I don't think that the NWS would put us in a flash flood watch if we were not expecting some rain here in Lee's Summit, MO. Though our rain totals did go down. Two things will happen, it either will rain more (we have had a shower or two today) or it won't.
Audra

I just got a flood warning/watch to my email -- so maybe we ARE going to get a lot of rain?  I wouldn't mind some, but not a whole bunch!  Audra - I like your forecasting!  "it either will rain more or it won't!"

Hey Notes - As I look at the setup, it seems there is quite a bit of nice moisture pooling in Central MO.  In addition, they are getting nice instability right now.

Looking at our area, we are still capped and largely stable.  It seems by the time we get uncapped, we loose much of the daylight to help charge surface heating.

Perhaps we can catch some elevated or initiated convection as it rolls through?  Looking at the RUC, it looks like any 500mb help largely sheers out and any PVA would be to our north...

I think certainly within the EAX WFO, someone is going to get hammered with rain, but much like their earlier discussion..its tough to tell exactly where.

GaryB, I think it is too early to call off the rain...

scott, land generated tropical plumes have in my experience been the most dynamic overnight.  

I got to the bus stop early so as I sat there waiting for over an hour waiting for the husbands bus I got a chance to "feel" the weather. The hour plus I sat there with the windows down I cold feel the humidity increasing and I could see clouds building W of me. The last half an hour or so it felt almost think..
Audra