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Interesting map from the NWS......looks like we are going to get some rain....yes my lawn needs it soooooooooooooo bad!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=eax

Man, I was hoping I could let the lawn go for a couple of weeks, but noooo...it keeps raining and the lawn keeps growing.

Carryover -

Hey Notes - As I look at the setup, it seems there is quite a bit of nice moisture pooling in Central MO.  In addition, they are getting nice instability right now.

Looking at our area, we are still capped and largely stable.  It seems by the time we get uncapped, we loose much of the daylight to help charge surface heating.

Perhaps we can catch some elevated or initiated convection as it rolls through?  Looking at the RUC, it looks like any 500mb help largely sheers out and any PVA would be to our north...

I think certainly within the EAX WFO, someone is going to get hammered with rain, but much like their earlier discussion..its tough to tell exactly where.

GaryB, I think it is too early to call off the rain...

I hope you are right Gary, but based on history I would probably side on much less if actually any rain falling in the Metro area. :(

Rdub, mow mine when you are done...I was hoping for burnout.  I am close, but there are patches that still want to live...

NWS is pretty bullish on the rain...and from radar it looks like more will be on the way. Remnants of Dolly are firing up more rain near Wichita and I think that will head NE towards us. Don't think we will get anything severe or close to it, but there is a lot of precipitable water out there.

Well the Flash Flood Watch is usually the kiss of death for rain the KC area, but it does look like it is starting to get its act together, and I am sure as with all tropical systems over land, they tend to strengthen over night

There's not much point to lots of rain unless there's some severe hint to it AND that I'm not out driving in hail when it comes.

Ok, thanks for the e-mail about it, is that automatic or do the Employyes do that?

I would like to get a lot of rain because NWS (not that it's a completely accurate source) says it could get hot at the end of the week. I think it's always good to have a good soaking before a hot pattern sets in. If that's what it's going to be.

Looks like Dolly is spinning up a weak Tornado- south of Emporia- in Chase county Ks-

Scott -

You seem to be focusing soley on the convective parameters (cap, surface heating, convection), but that is tossing out many other factors that warrant attention in this setup.  This type of system shouldn't be looked at as an overtly "convective" event when it comes to the precipitation.  This is not the same as the average spring/summer precipitation event (think:  juicy air ahead of a defined front, mesoscale convective activity, sharp cutoffs, etc...).  

Instead, this is a large (synoptic-scale) event associated with the large area of low pressure that will provide the necessary lift for an airmass that abundantly saturated through a large part of the column.  Surface heating isn't what will trigger this as it would in a convective event - in an event like this one, it is the large-scale lift that will result in condensation/precipitation.

Just to get this off my chest:  The *constant* referring of this storm as "Dolly" is getting a bit old, in my view...as it has virtually no tropical characteristics save its origin (which, even that, is a stretch).  If you watch a water vapor loop of the last 7 days or so, you'll see that the true Dolly died in Mexico.  

Sure, a small area of lower-pressure existed after Dolly's demise and is now drifting our way, but it can hardly be claimed that an organized area of moisture/convection has persisted through this period and is now impacting KC with tropical characteristics.

[/rant]

juba said:
Ok, thanks for the e-mail about it, is that automatic or do the Employyes do that?
cAN WE HAVE a new blog

scott, carryover from last blog...

land loving(pirish i know...)tropical disturbances tend to undergo max regeneration overnight.  once the sun goes down is usually when the rain shield really develops, in my experiences....

...although, despite the relatively high dewpoints, i hate to break the news to the wishful thinkers that this isnt tropical, but merely subtropical...theres a difference...

a common misconception is that there is a lot of convection associated with tropical systems... most convection associated with (true)tropical storms only occur on the outermost bands...not directly part of the storm.  i have been through countless tropical storms and hurricanes.  i have experienced convective squall lines on the outer periphery of the systems, but thats it.  even in the strongest hurricane i have ever experienced(andrew), i never once saw lightning or heard thunder.  nor was there any confirmed tornadoes associated with the eye of the storm.  now granted, the wind is so loud that you could easily miss thunder...but i have been in other storms where the wind wasnt so bad and there still wasnt thunder/lightning.  im sure you are already aware of this scott, so i am just going off on a tangent for anyone that cares to read...

which reminds me...if the east coast of FLA takes a direct hit from a CAT 2 hurricane or greater i will be down there wherever it makes landfall.  i have a property in vero beach which is a waterfront property, and family and friends all up and down the coast...i will be blogging live(as long as i can) and videotaping it so i can bring back some 'one of a kind' footage for all our land-locked viewers here...just thought i would throw that out there...

I got to my husbands bus stop early tonight. So as I sat there waiting for over an hour waiting for bus I got a chance to "feel" the weather. The hour plus I sat there with the windows down I cold feel the humidity increasing and I could see clouds building W of me. The last half an hour or so it felt almost think..
Audra

Sound cool Pvt Murphy. Stay safe though!
Audra

HA notes...we were thinking the exact same things...

...great minds think alike.

wheres gary? is jeremy lurking anywhere?

as long as you have an escape route(high rise rooftop, for example) storms are more fun than dangerous.  besides, the part of FLA i reside in only stands a 1 in 7 chance of getting hit any given year...and we had 4 hurricanes in 2004...so chances are i stay right here anyhow.  thanks for the concern though!

Gary, how much rain has already fallen at KCI?

Alex

alex,

kci has officially recorded .01" for the day.

watch out for the flash flooding ;)

in case if anyone missed the newscast(HOW DARE YOU)....gary says the bullseye is along the westside of I-35 through the metro area(2 inches)...with an inch surrounding the bubble-and the rest of the metro.

gary your rainfall forecast map looked like the snowfall maps from the winter with all the precip NE of me

Notes-
wasnt there a tropical item either last year or a couple years back, that cam up through the gulf, weakened, then moved across the US only to reform in the Atlantic?


there was a tornado warning for Lyons county, anyone see that?

Pvt...I usually only watch the 10:00 newscast =]

Gary, I think 1 inch will fall at KCI

Alex

Juba I don't think we need a new blog. Gary updates things on the news too.

im not liking the radar trends...if i were a betting man i would say that most of the rain is going to go SE of the metro...but its early.

I say 1.87 in Olathe

Hey pvt_murphy, SE of the metro is in my direction. NWS put us back up to 1-2" of rain again. They dropped the amounts earlier, but they bumped it back up.
Audra

anyone see that super cell between kc and columbia, thing looks very impressive with lots of elevated rotation

LVStormSpotter,

The one by Concordia? That looks like it's getting a hook echo?

yes, thats the one, just east of there

Woo hoo lots of rain in my yard :)

It's pouring here between Lee's Summit and Lake Lotawana.
Audra

i wish i could say the same, we have gotten more rain during the day than at night so far...it looks like a dry column of air has spliced the system into two rain shields...with me in the dry spot....luck o the irish i suppose...

I don't normally complain, but I'm just slightly agitated at the see-saw forecast. Some may see two inches to others excessive in some spots. What exactly does that mean???? What is excessive??? Forecasting to me states areas that will recieve rain and the amount predicted to fall. Prediction is just that, an educated guess. I much prefer a forecast of rain amounts in various locations than a blanket statement.

Guess I'll have to watch the 10 o'clock news to see if a more detailed forecast will be broadcasted.

HEY GARY IS THE NORTHLAND GOING TO GET ANY OF THIS? 152 AND AMITY BY THE AIRPORT HAS NOTHING

we have already 1 inch in Liberty.

Gary's prediction for a cooler-than-normal summer is coming true, as we approach August. Where's the best way to report rainfall amounts? I'm a Newbie.

What's the best way to report rainfall amounts from my backyard in Waldo/Brookside?

Score, raining heavy here at the new home at 87th and I-35.

I was just at Zarda BBQ today Jonathan, not too far from your new home :)

raining non stop in knob..

must be nice nothing by the kci

First for the newbies: Comment here on the blog (normally on the most recent post, unless logic dictates otherwise) or send an email to weather@nbcactionnews.com

Now to my local conditions: I took advantage of a break between cells to check the unofficial Emma MO-KSHB rain gauge. We're sitting on an even .9" at 2130 and if it starts pouring, I'm not going back out to update before the news. Good news 1: None of the hail postulated hit us. Good news 2: The possible 60+ mph winds the NWS warned us of haven't blown much over 20 mph all evening.

Currently we have some beautiful lightning accompanied by continuing rumbles of thunder.

Walt Snyder

Looks like we'll get what doesn't hit the ground at your place, twister11.

MTongate... I'm at I-29/152 area and have just had sprinkles tonight.  Pretty much sucks since I was wishing for rain.  Hopefully we get something overnight.  Even a half-inch will suffice.

Added question: What sort of wind speed are they seeing in that huge bow echo moving out of Illinois into just about all of western Indiana?

the bow echo is falling apart.  i would say 30-39mph at best.

I am at 169 and 68th st and it has been raining for over an hour...lots of lightning and lights have flickered twice...

intense lighting show in sedalia. most vivid lighting i have ever seen.

mmm Burnt ends. awesome Joe. The rain has stopped unfortunately. Doesn't look like any more echoes are headed directly this way, hopefully we'll see more overnight into the morning hours. That's my hope anyway. I also hope this next heat segment doesn't materialize into anything major. this humidity in the 70s and 80s is enough to make you sweat through 6 layers of clothing, not that anybody would do anything that foolish right now, but then again there is the polar bear plunge in winter so you never know. I can't imagine this humidity with upper 90s.

Received 0.06" of rain so far, here in my backyard over in East Lawrence.

Ray

Just took the dogs out between drops, have 2 inches in the rain gauge so far at 70 & Blue Ridge.
Glad the sump pump is working. :o)

Wow, we are having a torrential downpour at 101st and Lamar.

Yes, very nice soaker in southern JOCO,  look out downtown... its heading your way!

Flash Flood warning for alot of counties. But most Importantly Johnson Co. KS

123rd and state line...  pouring big time (finally)

WOW! Suz I am on 124th and state line....and yes it is pouring like CRAZY! I love it!

Deluge in olathe
STREET=RIVER
OUTSIDE RAIN=POOL TO CLOUDS WITH A FEW BUBLES!!!!!!!
NICE STORM

It looks like this round is going to move through and im looking on a radar map right now (12:50pm) and there is another nice cell practically moving northeast up I-35 in the middle of Emporia and Olathe.  More More More!!!!

Murph - better late than never in your response, and likely not real important at this point..but a few thoughts on your post way above...

You said - "most convection associated with (true)tropical storms only occur on the outermost bands...not directly part of the storm."  I think I kinda know where you are going with this as far as most of the "severe" weather is in the outer bands, but terminology is important in this case.  For cold core storms to exist and organize, convection must be present near the center.

"The convection in tropical storms is usually more concentrated near the center with outer rainfall organizing into distinct bands."

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A5.html

You also said - "tropical disturbances tend to undergo max regeneration overnight.  once the sun goes down is usually when the rain shield really develops, in my experiences"  

Yes, for typical cold core tropical entities, diurnal growth is most usual as the dynamics of the cold core storms work much different than warm core that we are use to seeing on the mainland.  So, based on your location in Florida, I fully agree most of the water based tropical disturbances would have these characteristics.

Generally, I agree with your thoughts..just had a small thought on the convection/diurnal based on my understanding.

I miss the tropics!  I haven't really focused on them for about 4 years and that is where I gained a great deal of knowledge prior to focusing on mainland dynamics.

Notes - as far as your thoughts on "Dolly", I kinda agree as the main entity of the storm died long ago, but remnants significant as the remaining moisture being condensed around a spawned upper level low seems fair enough to make the reference for the purposes of providing context of its original origin.

I agree..its is not really the same storm, but more the remains of the death of Dolly.

Remember Ivan when it was claimed dead as it went inland and its remnants re-spawned again in the Gulf and had a second landfall and kept the same name?

That was a crazy storm...

As far as the thought of this being more synoptic, sure...but what is the difference between this ULL and any other where convective questions arise?  I have seen many ULL pass through without a drop of rain...seems convection is still relevant?

You are probably right, but trying to understand...

I missed most everything tonight due to other plans...guess I will have to watch the achieved radar loops...LOL

So you are saying that now that we are under darkness the storms with this system over KC will grow?

Are we going to see the same thing all day tomorrow that we are seeing tonight?

No..this is not a cold core storm.  We just have a ton of PW available and some decent lift to drop it out...

Well, I was almost asleep, then the thunder started up.  Now the basement is soggy with little streams running across the floor.  And the drainage creek across the street has turned into a whitewater river with rapids overflowing the road.  

Sill dumping  at Jhonson County Executive Airport about 4.00", let me go check! EXCUSE ME 5.00" OF RAIN AT THE AIRPORT!