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Following the LRC, even though it is in a weakened state, what do you expect for the month of August? Do you expect any wet times?

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August or September is the time when this past years LRC should start a transition and morphing into whatever next years LRC will be.  When will this transition begin? We are highly confident that the same pattern is still cycling in its weakened state now.  So, as long as it continues, the wetter and cooler than average weather will likely continue.  As a result, I am still expecting another above average rainfall month.

Gary

I am not pleased to see the heat return, however, my corn and tomatoes are very pleased!  Glad it won't last terribly long.  The rainfall totals for the month were impressive.  I live about 5 miles SW of the airport and I got 1.5 inches more than their total.  As a gardener, I have loved the periodic rains this summer because I have not watered once and our harvest has been far more abundant than in past years.

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The rain has been timed out pretty well by Mother Nature this summer.  A few spots that were getting dry are now wet.

Gary

This year would've been great to overseed with blueranch grass! The spots where it is thicker in my yeard are blue because it's so happy! Usally are summer grass takes over by mid July.

Any guess on what the highs would be this weekend if we did not have the green grass or the rain fall we have had this year?

Paul

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Paul,

It would be tough to answer this question because the reason it won't be as hot as it could be is because of the pattern we are in. There isn't a lot of southwest wind with this warm up.  If there were then we could have been over 100 degrees the next few days.  But, with the 850 mb temperatures as warm as they are forecast to be, I would say it would have made a 5 degree difference if it were drier. This isn't a very strong upper high.  Right now we are going 98 Sunday and 99 Monday.  Let's see how high it really goes.

Gary

Good morning Gary--It has been a while since I have logged on---This summer sure has been an interesting one with the LRC----The rainfall amounts from KC through Topeka through Wichita have been very interesting to follow and record.  I have been reading all of your information over the summer and it will be interesting to see the end of this LRC and the set up of the next one!  Here in Berryton we are running close to 3 inches above normal precip but still 1.4 below this time last year.  It sounds as if your new set will be a great place to work.  Keep up your good work!  I will stay in contact.  Michael/Topeka/Berryton

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Michael,

It is great hearing from you.  I hadn't checked Topeka's rainfall lately.  The next week will be interesting as this next chance of rain and front approach the area.

Gary

Gary,

On my weather station in south OP, I registered 13 days 90+ and two highs of exactly 100 in the month of July. A bit warmer than KCI. FYI...

Bob

Lezak or something said something yesterday about wooly worms with the more black meaning a harder winter.  (I know this is off subject - sorry!) - I thought it was black on each end and brown in the middle, and the bigger the brown, the worse the winter.  So am I backwards or are you?  :)

Oh no!  NOT a good sign - it is the more black, the harder the winter and the more brown, the milder the winter.  The website said it works 85% of the time - so, since someone saw the pure black ones, I'm hoping this will be the 15% that's wrong!  Okay.  I'll stop rambling.  It's FRIDAY!  One week to the Olympics!  Yeah!

So Gary - find out about the winter if it will be "wetter" than normal, there's no way to predict now, right?  Once this LRC (from last winter) winds down, then it will be a brand new one?  So for the first part of fall/winter, it's going to have to be a "wait and see" to see how the cycle is setting up.  Then you can better tell?

Well looks like I'll be out of the contest by Monday if the high gets over 97˚!  Oh well, that's life!  I don't ski anyway!!  Will be getting out early to walk the dog the next few days to avoid the heat.  Will have to keep Brock inside most of the time which won't make him happy- we think he got a bit overheated last week when the temps were higher. Getting excited to see the new set!!  Dea

G-

I've got a fishing trip planned Saturday AM in Smithville.  What region of the city are you expecting the best chance for isolated T-storms?

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It's only a 20% chance.  So I wouldn't worry right now, good luck fishing!

Jeremy

You may not think it is hot enough for a heat warning but it's only 11:20 and I think it's wicked hot now.

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I know what you are saying, but what will you say in one hour when it is cloudy.  That's my point.  Sunday and Monday will be "wicked" hot

Gary

Stormdog is wondering whether this potential tropical system could take a similar track to the last, up the Rio Grande to El Paso,then NEwd twds the lwr Mo Valley?
Impossible to tell, but just a thought.  

I noted quite a cool-down by Weds, so should there not be thunderstorm chances somewhere just before.  If not, why not?  Seems deathly humid currently to me - and I don't think the heat and h umidity will just go poof before the front moves in.
Perhaps a cap?  Perhaps not...  I will be amused to see if the NWS inserts storm chances somewhere in their 7 day.

Later,
Dog

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Dog,

Our forecast is very different from theirs, beginning with today.

Gary

At this rate these Orange Alerts are like crying wolf and soon no one's even going to pay attention to them.  You even said last night on your forecast that you didn't think the conditions would be right for an Orange Alert.

I am hoping for a bit of assistance from the rainfall/trough pattern of the last month for Sun/Mon.  I am hoping for just the slight drop in temps to 97 as a high at KMCI.

Seems plausible.  I hope.

Perhaps I can take some ice up to KMCI and leave a bucket around the temp gauge. - LOL

Having already 7 days of the 90s, I just need a bit over 1/3rd of the remaining days to hit 90 or above.

So..just a smidgen warmer than July, but under average will be fine to get me to my 20/97 submission.

Just need to make sure we do not end up with 19 days...right Jeremy?  LOL

i wouldnt hold your breath scott.  ;)

this cloud deck has really put a damper on the heating today.  last hour we were up to 82 at the fort, but now i am reading 81 with a light nne breeze.  i know i have said this already, but in my 3 summers i have spent here, this has been by far the greatest outlier.  much more humid, and cloudy.

Gary, glad I only listen to you. The way the NWS has been forcasting these days is a joke. They make it sound like we are all going to perish and die! Yes, it is hot outside, but for goodness sakes it is August and summertime.

Did they issue exessive heat warnings last summer in August when we had all those hot days? I can't remember.

I just know that I need to take a few extra precautions with my farm animals during summer. Common sense really. Lots of cool, clean water available and refreshed at night to take some of the heat out of the water from the solar warming. The horses, dogs and even the chickens have fans in their outbuildings.

Thanks for keeping us all informed and level headed.

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And, it is August 1st. We are having an average day.  This is supposed to happen now.

Gary

Hi Everybody, great conversation. I like the conversation about the woolly worms. the heat does not excite me, however, Gary saying the words "abruptly end" does so I'm holding onto that. I'm really going to hate to see this LRC end. This has been THE most exciting LRC in our area in YEARS, I can't remember a period when the weather pattern has been so active and actually pleasing to me. I hope we have another good one next year guys. It's only a few months away. I'm afraid but excited at the same time.

Yep as the heat tries to build in, things keep getting in the way. We are socked in with low clouds with temps in the low 80's.  With the potential of a tropical system, it will be interesting to see what happens since Gary has said before that they tend to try and follow certain tracks each year.

another thought onto my last one. I hope this doesn't upset anybody, but I hope that this years LRC provides heavy snow bands that set up directly over the Kansas City Counties this year =D not north or south or every where but here, know what I mean?

Afternoon all,
I'm curious.. we have a weak front, extremely hot and humid airmass, so what's keeping us from having some storms around tonight?  

Hail. I know excatly what you mean.

I also hope the LRC produces that Ice storm that I wanted so badly last year.

But most of the ppl on this blog dont like me saying this like that.

I would like the heavy snow bands set up over Johnson County

Thats would be cool

Too too hot for me!  I think I would like to hibernate until fall!

Hey TF. I think Ice storms are amazing. I always am double sided when it comes to ice storms. I always want one because I think Freezing Rain is amazing precipitation and is absolutely beautiful, but You CANT have one without power going out, and me being such a modernized person I don't like them at the same time. So that's why I've kind of fallen in love with major sleet events. I remember I think it was 2 years ago Clinton, MO got 6 inches of Sleet and I was just so envious. I'm also with you on the JOCO thing as well.

"And, it is August 1st. We are having an average day.  This is supposed to happen now."

If dewpoints in the region topping 80 degrees is normal..I guess it is an average day?

Sure..temps have been normal..but it does seem RATHER moist for this time of year.

If you roll with Wiki being somewhat reliable, then average dewpoints this time of year should be in the lower 60s.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_City,_Kansas

OR

http://www.answers.com/topic/kansas-city-kansas

Here are some other interesting things to consider....

Here is how EAX [Kansas City/Pleasant Hill] defines Excessive Heat Warnings -

"AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HEAT
INDICIES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES...FOR FOUR OR MORE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS"

Here is how ICT [Wichita] defines the same -

NWS Wichita Heat Alert Criteria
Heat Advisory: Heat Index of 105 - 114°F  
Excessive Heat Warning: Heat Index of 115°F or greater  

Odd how WFOs so close would be quite a bit different in criteria.

Looking at current conditions - Olathe is at 90 degrees and 76 degree dewpoints...that translates to 101 degrees heat index...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/?n=heat_index_calculator

One degree higher for both temps and dewpoints, and the criteria would be met per EAX   It was marginal for today.  I think they made the right call looking forward to this weekend into early next week BASED on the EAX criteria provided.

If you go with ICT's definition, yes..today would be a bust on the warning.

TONS of snow- and I need some south and east please! - but NO ICE!  Our power lines out in the country are HORRIBLE.  They're already hanging down way too far.  Any ice at all knocks us out - not high priority on getting electricty stored.  And no generator!  Been there done that when we lived in Independence - we had no electricity for a solid week.  Sucked big time.  COLD.  Lost ALL our food.  So . . . snow will be welcome - large amounts (not the dustings that only make everything messy) but NO ice!  :)  (like we really get what we want!)

I'm not sure I care what it's Officially Called -- it's hot and humid out there. My car temp in Blue Springs said 89 at 1:30 - and that was with no sun!  My skin was sticky!  I suppose I could have run the airconditioner in the car but I don't want to waste the gas!  :(  Guess no one's still around - so I can say I'm having a horrid Friday!  Waaaaah!

The KC office is a bit premature on the warning and possibly even the advisory.  In the "instant want it now" world, it would have been better to possibly "advise it" tomorrow for Sunday-Monday.
There's no doubt it'll actually get hot for a few days, but this is normal for this part of the year and will be short lived.  There is no "heat wave".  July 21st, the dew points and heat index was the same, if not higher.
What we're having is actually below what we should be getting as far as temps.  We're way above precip.  
Expect the latter part of August to feel more like early June did.

Okay Gary - anything over 60 or 65 is "hot" to me!  So I guess technically, a heat warning isn't warranted. But still, isn't "hot" part of personal perception?  If so -- then it's hot to me!  I don't guess there's any big weather going on or there would be more people here, so I hope I don't get in trouble for straying for the subject!  I'm sorry Gary!  I'll stop!

I mean Gary Lezak I'm sorry - not GaryB!  Well, I am sorry, but you know what I mean!

Despite the doomsday forecast this weekend(not from NBC41), I mowed my lawn about 11-12 in mostly cloudy skies. The I went for a 1.5 hour bike ride from 230 to about 400. Yeah, it was hot but there was a nice breeze.   Guess the earth's crust will survive another weekend, right NWS and the rest of the predictors of this weather Armagaddon.

GaryB,

I think the key is the very high dewpoints we are seeing.  Yes, the 21st was similar in HI, but the temp was much higher and the dewpoints much lower.  That would be normal for Summer.

As dewpoints are in the mid 70s-low 80s, even 92 degrees would warrant alteast an advisory.

More subjective than criteria for heat warnings is defining a heat wave, so I won't touch that one...everyone has a different critiera.

I agree with HummerSeeker, it is miserable out there today!  Hummerseeker, run the air conditioner and stay cool!  Here is some interesting research on the air vs. gas relationship...

http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/01/Autos/tipsandadvice/gas_saving_test/

Say it isn't so, macnkc..no scortched earth this weekend?

LOL

Thanks KCWX!  I sure didn't know that about the air - I feel better now!  I drive a 2003/04 Jeep Cherokee - it gets pretty good for one of those "biggies" - around 20 mpg. I did have a 60,000 service thing done and it gets a tad bit more than 21 now!  Other than the air v. windows, I knew about most of the rest - I'm not much of a road rage person, so I drive pretty steady and start slow rather than fast.  But that tip about the cruise control is pretty good too - I've NEVER used it!  :(  Guess I'll start since most of my commute is on 50 Highway!  Oh yea- I can add to it!  I always keep 150 pounds of sandbags in the back (don't ask me why - I have 4wheel drive for the winter, but my husband said "keep them back there") - someone said that extra weight causes more gas to be used so I took them out!

ANyway -- thank you for the tip!  Think I WILL stay cool on the way home tonight!  :)

From KC NWS AFD:

REGARDING THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING:

DESPITE THE LOWER SFC TEMPERATURES...LACK OF DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED
DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO EVEN UPR 70S TO POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE SFC FRONT.  THIS COMBINATION HAS PUSHED HEAT INDEX READINGS INTO
THE UPR 90S TO LOWER 100S /JUST SHY OF REGIONAL CRITERIA/ IN THE
METRO AREA.   FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...CRITERIA APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN
MET WITH AFTN HEAT INDEX READINGS PUSHING 107 DEGREES NEAR BUTLER
AND MOUND CITY KANSAS.  IN COORDINATION WITH THE KANSAS CITY PUBLIC
HEALTH DEPARTMENT AND LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES...WILL CONTINUE WARNING SINCE
A LOWER CRITERIA FOR THE LOCAL URBAN AREA IS ALLOWED. IN
ADDITION...WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING 4
DAYS AND WITH MANY LOCAL SPORTING CAMPS BEGINNING AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES PLANNED THIS WEEKEND...FEEL IT IS PERTINENT TO CONTINUE
WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE OVERNIGHT
WITH HEAT INDICES BARELY FALLING BELOW 80F IN THE DOWNTOWN AREA.

Appears there is some regional criteria they are following, it must not be individual offices anymore.  Also, looks like the KC area is on its own criteria not the same as the region.  Only think I know is that when I went for a walk awhile ago I could sweat standing up.  Lord knows that after 4-5 days of this its going to be rough.  Lots of people in the city who do not have AC.

Urf.  Our poor home air conditioner doesn't keep up too well!  I heard somewhere that air conditioners were only made to carry the load to lower the temperature indoors,comparedto the outdoor by 10-15 degrees!  So if its 100 outside, we should be happy with 85 inside!  Yikes!

I'm back...finally. I have a dew point reading of 76. This is only about the second or third time I've seen dew points this high in Kansas City.
North wind and cloud cover prevented temperatures from going well into the 90s today. We won't get that lucky tomorrow. Most data I've seen places the cold front coming in sometime Tuesday PM, but until then look for the hottest temperatures of the summer. I think we hit 100 next Monday.

weather team.
the state fair starts thursday and was wondering if you were going to do the weather forecast from there. i believe you are still evicted that night. lol

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We won't be doing the weather live from the state fair.  But, we will try to include the forecast each night!

Gary

90 degrees, 78 degree dew point at 5:50 p.m. Lawrence. Heat index of 103.  Plenty hot over here.

Did anybody know there was a Solar Eclipse today? Here is the link, my favorite part was when the Corona flashed into appearance!

http://www.weather.com/multimedia/videoplayer.html?clip=11565&from=36hr_outlet_video

Ok, this humidity is a bit rediculous. Is the heat for Sunday and Monday going to be accompanied by this of high dewpoints? Please tell me there will be at least a breeze!

WILL CONTINUE WARNING SINCE A LOWER CRITERIA FOR THE LOCAL URBAN AREA IS ALLOWED.

This is the key....call me one of the few, but I think with the current conditions and current forecast, this certainly is warranted.

I will be watching how things mix out tomorrow....I pray for light southern winds...

The RUC does not fully wash out the boundary tomorrow in the area...we may get lucky and catch more E or SE winds...

Maybe.

The link below is more scary than the near 100 temps for Monday....

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+dewpt+nc+60

Wicked dewpoints.  Ugh.  It will be very dangerous if it pans out.

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Scott,

I am going to make the graphic of dewpoints right now.  It is impressive.  Our new Powercast just came out, so I will play with the data.

Gary

It's so humid out, it feels like there is a thick blanket hanging in the air. Ugh. But that's the midwest in August for you!

So that means with the 80 Dew point that some spots can get from 114-118F for a heat index when its 100 outside

2 or 4 more degrees will be a very dangerous situation.

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If the dew point reaches 80, it is highly unlikely the air temperature would be 100. 

Jeremy

It looks like some shower activity northwest of Leavenworth?....

Dwx...I am not seeing anything?

I just got rain drops in Olathe.

I posted a note about the eclipse a few days ago. I noticed that several days ago on the weather section of 41's website, on the extended forecast there was a moon in place instead of a sun on Friday(today) and I asked something like "has anybody noticed the "moony" forecast for friday?" and than asked if there was a solar eclipse for this day and then I looked it up and sure enough there was so i posted that there was a solar eclipse today for the western world.

HummerSeeker - our air conditioner decided to quit working, period last night - enjoy your 85 degrees :)

Very nice outside here in Lawrence! Does anybody know how long a Tetnius shot is suppost to keep your arm looking like somebody shovved a giant pebble under it?

We always hold hands. If I let go, she shops. -Henny Youngman  :o)  Happy Holidays!