NBC Action Communities

Darn! I had my new rain gauge all up and ready to record this incoming rainfall, but guess it will have to wait until next time.

Ditto, Marlina10-  I just got a new rain gauge as well!  Hopefully we'll get some rain!  Can't complain too much though- I've been loving these cooler temps today!  Actually got to take the dog around the block instead of just a quick jaunt up the street and back!  Dea

Is it me or does your new HD powercast/futurcast seem less accurate?  I dont know if its the same software beefed up or something different than before, but I notice 24hrs out seems to be less reliabe than before.   I have even noticed you guys questioning the in house model at times.   I know every station has their own in house model and you guys are still the best, but not as good since you went HD and the new software.    Hands down your the best at nowcasting, but that is fairly easy as it just requires you to make your own judgement as the event is unfolding.
Its more of a communication tool and your blog always keeps us informed.

Not to bash, just an observation.     This has been a tough year to call storms or temps 24 hrs out as strange things have happened over and over again.    Maybe I will wait for next years LRC before I compare  :P

GL with the set Friday night after the Olympics, I am sure everybody is working hard to get it ready.

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The set is almost ready.  Powercast has actually done quite well. I won't show it if I don't believe that it is right. I thought it had a good handle on things yesterday, but this time it made a bad forecast, and I made a horrible forecast going for 100% chance of rain.  And, your other point about this years LRC....yes, it has been tough to make the right forecast more than 12 hours out. 

Gary

Oh good grief. I get geared up for some storms and ....nothing? So is it still 100% for rain tomorrow? If it's just rain and not thunder storms I can leave the dogs in the garage with their lamp and the fan , instead of in the laundry room with their night light.

I'm kind of bummed, I was looking forward to some rain. The clouds look like they can't build all that high. Is there a cap on them?
Audra in Lee's Summit

9 inches of rain...silly NAM.  I despise that model.

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Scott,

9 inches of rain?  How about no rain?  Every model and myself blew this forecast.  I am surprised, but then again we should have seen it coming.  The front was not modeled very well and it ended up farther south.  So, it wasn't just the NAM.

Gary

the crazy thing about it scott, is that the nam best intialized the morning setup too...so basically nothing is right.

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Murph,

The flow aloft is smooth, without many disturbances.  And, this has kept the rain near the front and to our west.

Gary

Wild looking clouds up here in the Northland  dark and looks like cottonballs unrolled. It's ok Gary everbody is allowed a mulligan every now and then.

Only water in my rain gauge tonight is from watering the flowers- boo hoo!

Nice little shower forming to the NW of me near Drexel and Harrisonville. I can hear the thunderboomers and see the lightening, but I'm not sure my flowers will get a drink. Why is it always feast or famine this year??? And I just got back in from a little ride and boy is the dewpoint high. I'm sweating just from untacking the horse!

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That is a heavy thunderstorm now!

Gary

Looks like it is back building. Wow, it is thundering so strong that the dishes are rattling in the cabinets! I'm just North of La Cygne. Wonder if I'll get some rain now?

For what it's worth.

Gary...we got a brief shower in Lee's Summit earlier tonight.  Your 100% rain verified here..

I hate summer forecasting...I am lazy and prefer obvious upper air features.  I am not even looking up in the sky much lately..buried in LRC data...

'Tis that time..

LOL

Hey everyone (especially Scott and Gary)

I'm thinking this year's LRC is done now.... The reason you may ask... Take a look at the pattern the next week... It really doesn't look all that familiar... Take a look right now at Denver and E Colorado... For the last year, they were bone dry... Now a huge area of rain and thunderstorms... Take a look at how the models have behaved lately, the short range and long range trends have been suspect at best the last few days...

Granted this is pretty much an outsiders view looking in... But this sure does not look like the trends to me since last November/December...

On a side note, this is probably the mildest summer I can remember in a long time, outside of this past weekend and Monday, I cannot remember a summer which had such trouble generating a true heat wave. With that said, I am the last person who will complain about that as I cannot stand temperatures above 95 and high humidities..

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JBtornado,

We don't believe that it is a new pattern yet. It is very similar to around June 15th to 20th right now.  It is likely about to begin a slow morphing/transition into something new very soon.

Gary

Looks like eastern colorado is getting some much needed rain tonight good to share the rain with someone else for a change.

jb...I think we are in the transition where the old LRC is dying and the new one is starting to form.  No wonder everything is a mess right now...

LOL.  I see evidence still of the old pattern with the longwaves..but seems different things at the surface are happening...similar transition sequence as last summer...perhaps this is how it works?

Its all part of the LRC!  Last winter when the computer models said something like we were going to get a lot of snow, it landed up not happening.  Same thing with this storm system!  So much for some nice rain!  =(