NBC Action Communities

Gary,

I drive in each morning listening to EJ and Ellen.  I cannot imagine what you will sound like during those recorded forecasts between 5:30-6am!  Give yourself a break and make someone else like Brett to do it for you during the Olympics!  

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If the weather is calm, then I will be taping those and making them sound like they are live, and then go live around 7 AM or so.  But, if there are thunderstorms, then I will be live.  Hopefully I will get my usual 5 1/2 hours of sleep a night.  It depends on the weather.

Thanks for the concern, but it will work out. And, Brett will likely fill in a few of the days.

Gary

Gary it's mother nature, we know it happens sometimes.  You guys are still the best and I'm sure every other forecast missed it as well.  Keep up the great work.

Alan

Gary -- Planning to take a client to play golf in Wichita this afternoon.  Looks like the rain is going to continue to grow in intensity and spread southwest from Emporia.  Is this an accurate read?  looks like large rainfall amounts too.  what are your thoughts?  Thanks!  have a good day

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They are in the zone, but there should be a few dry hours in a row later today for golf.

Gary

Can't wait to see the new set tomorrow!!!  I get off work around 10:30PM so I will be able to see it!  =)

And Gary...GET SOME SLEEP FOR CRYING OUT LOUD!!!  lol.

I'm looking forward to the new set much more than the Olympics....

I much prefer the winter games.

and X games or Great Outdoor games....

I prefer no games...just the new set!!!

Gary and Team...you guys are still the best, as always. After that heat, I was really hoping for some rain...so I'm glad I was watering my lawn, as I was worried that we would end up missing all the rain. I am no expert what so ever...but one thought...with all your knowlege and experience...maybe you should go with your gut instincts (sometimes) over these computer models that seem to change from each run and then don't even agree between themselves. I think your forcasting ability is far better than those computer models anyday!!! : -) Keep up the good work and especially during the upcoming Olympics.

Jeff  

I will definitely watch the 11pm newscast tomorrow night- I'm sure the new set will look fabulous!  Unfortunately don't know if I'll be able to stay up late every night of the Olympics to catch the late newscast- I am NOT a night owl!!  And Gary don't be too hard on yourself- I doubt the critics could do a better job- not even close!!  Have a great day!  Dea

Gary,

Did anyone actually get 9" of rain, or were the models wrong?  I know the models got it wrong when everything shifted south but I was curious if anyone actually got the heavy heavy rain at all.

Thanks,
Tim

Tim in West Shawnee said:
Gary,

Did anyone actually get 9" of rain, or were the models wrong?  I know the models got it wrong when everything shifted south but I was curious if anyone actually got the heavy heavy rain at all.

Thanks,
Tim

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Tim, believe it or not, there was a true 9 inch bullseye south of Emporia and west of Garnett two nights ago.

Gary

If it rains nine inches but someone did not read the blog did it realy rain nine inches?  That's the question of the day!

Oddly, it rained yesterday in the metro area, so I am not sure how it was a completely blown forecast?

Anyway..yup, the NAM had a close amount..just - well..the wrong part of the state..but yes, it had the right idea.

I welcome back the NW flow.  I guess its not a suprise as if you follow the LRC, you would have known a month or so ago that it would happen.  

I am simply blown away by the LRC as this is the first full year I have studied it day to day, hours at a time - nevermind the previous years of more casual observations only taking a few hours a month...LOL

It is simply amazing.  It can be used and shown in many ways...

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Scott,

It takes that much time, as much as you have put in, to really see the LRC.  This is one of the reasons why other meteorologists struggle with it.  It is there!  And, many of the bloggers and others are coming along and seeing what we have seen and experienced for a long time.  There is so much more work to be done. 

I do believe it is going to slowly transition and evolve into next years pattern.  And, you may or may not agree, but I still firmly believe that between October 1st and November 10th something "magical" happens where the pattern gets stuck into whatever it will be next year.  And, it is mostly unrelated to the previous years pattern.   What this likely means is that the pattern that slowly transitions between now and October 1st is going to be a different and changing version of the LRC we have experienced this year, and then towards the end of September into October something major and massive happens where the new pattern evolves and sets up.

Gary

It is all a work in progress, and much has been seen and discovered even in the last few years.  I am confident it can become better defined in the time and work ahead.  I am just enjoying watching it morph right now.

October?  Sure, we disagree..but that is ok...if we are just disagreeing about a finer point, that is ok..that can get worked out.  The point is we both clearly see the cycle where so many choose to close their eyes.

I do not understand why someone would be so mad about a forecast not being 100% right on. Some did get rain yesterday...more did not than did BUT it did rain. You even said on air last night, more than once, "we blew the 100% chance of rain"....what more do people want....gee!!! Have a better day today weather team.
Monica
Pleasanton...nice and moist from the rain we got!!!

With the new studio being unvealed on Friday and all of the changes going on at NBC, have there been any thoughts to another bloggers meeting?

I'm bummed that we did not get rain. I kind of figured that would be the way it was when the percentages kept going down. I was hoping mother nature would put water into my pool and water the butterfly gardens, but alas she said no. I hope the people who got 9" of rain south of us did not flood. Anyway, I am just going to enjoy the cooler weather and lower humidity. I am not mad at anyone for the lack of rain, just bummed that it happened.
Audra in Lee's Summit

I'm not mad about not getting rain at all.  I'm a little disappointed in the fact that Gary used a rainfall prediction map highlighting all of Kansas City getting 1-2 inches of rain.  That IS hard to live down.  

A drawn map like that may work in winter weather, but not in a convective event.

Just my 2 cents

Gary,
From yourself to Noah and every other station everyone had rain. And some alot of it. Here at my work everyone knows how much i am into the weather. They always ask me what is the weather going to do Rod. Well i know that they all have watched the weather already. I always side with you guys. Well so even myself i am not a meteoroligist and i have taken a beating. Asking me what happened to the rain Rod. I have been telling everyone the same thing over. The front went to far south. Yes i thought to myself when the wind kept staying out of the north I thought it probably will not rain here. Sure enough it has not. Gary it's ok because these things are going to happen. We cannot make it rain or anything else. I told the last one to stop complaing. Go outside and enjoy some great August weather. How many August days do you remember like these.

Have a great evening,

-Rodney

There wasn't 9 inches of rain west of Garnett as the radar estimates showed. I farm from one Allen to Franklin county just west of Garnett and the most any of my guages showed or I have heard from neighbors was 4.8. 1 to 3 inches was more typical.

Will tonight be cool enough where we will be able to open the windows and give the A/C a rest?

Yea it turned out to be just clouds and maybe a sprinkle here in St. Joe.
well now it is time to see just how many 90's are left between now and Labor Day.
maybe we will fare better with the next system... all in all it has been a very exciting LRC, but it's time is just about up.

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Nick,

It is only going to slowly change, so we will likely see some of the affects for another few weeks.  Then, the roulette wheel starts spinning.

Gary

Gary, When do you plan on publishing the LRC?  

I wonder if those complainers are 100% accurate on their jobs?  

Ok. Well hopefully That happens

Gary, several years ago I heard a meteorologist give the best retort ever to someone who complained about a forecast being off. It was back in the 90s, on KMBZ. Don Fortune was on the air, and Sara Croke (sp?) had inaccurately predicted snow flurries the day before. Instead, KC was blanketed in snow. Fortune greeted her as she came on the air with, "Sara, I shoveled four inches of flurries off my doorstep this morning...". Sara replied, "Fortune, when's the last time YOU tried to predict the future?" She said it with a smile, I'm sure, but I guarantee you Don never criticized her forecasts again....at least not on the air.

I hope that neither you nor your team take the criticism too seriously.  Perhaps the day will come when science and technology can predict the weather with 100% certainty; but I doubt that it will be in your or my lifetime.

Thanks for all you guys do.

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I have used this before too.  You just have to move on and get the next one right.  You are only as good as your last forecast!  Well, we did get today right, so we are back on track.

Gary

It's not a question of getting it right 100% of the time.  It's a question of being right when you tell people you're 100% sure about your forecast.

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That's why I shouldn't have gone for a 100% chance.

Gary

Its not about accuracy or even how confident you are in your forecast.  Even as humans and -  as such -  even when we are extremely sure, we will make mistakes.  

What exasperates a blown forecast is that it is known by tens of thousands of people.  While each of us make mistakes in our present jobs, a small percentage are exposed to that many people in our mistakes.

Whether we are 100% sure or 100% right, its all a bit more pressure packed when that many people are watching and making plans based on an interpretation of an unexact science.

Anyway..just my thoughts.  I still contend it wasn't blown, but for some it was.  Today is a new...and quite beautiful day - may I add, and so long as there are more days right than wrong...seems fair enough to me.

(This has nothing to do with the blog, well, maybe a little! ;)

There is only one thing that makes this weather station THEE beast, but it's pretty darn close, just one simple thing that other stations have said about KSHB. It isn't live. That can't be all the way true, your live when it's important!

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I am not sure what you mean?  We are live in every newscast?

Gary

It seems a half of the nation is under a flash flood warning, I wonder when it expires?

http://www.weather.gov/

Maybe it's a single time glitch, it's still funny!
LOL

Stormdog here - Sorry guys, but I think all efforts to predict weather more than 48 hours out is a crap shoot - unless you really have a potent system to deal with, and even then it is a partial crap-shoot.  Model A predicts one thing, Model B predicts another.  And it all comes down, in the end to nowcasting.  Look out the window, look at the nature of the clouds, look at satellite upstream, and I believe that is better than depending on computer models in situations where you have weak features to key onto.  Fancy looks nice, but especially this time of year, it is still a crap-shoot, as far as I am concerned.

Climatology suggests Blue Springs is missing storms more often than not, and I will go with that - no 7 inches, if any, for Blue Springs would be my uneducated guess.

Sorry for the negatives,

Stormdog

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Stormdog,

Maybe the specifics are very difficult to predict more than 48 hours in advance, but look at our summer forecast.  We predicted a cooler and wetter summer, with one moderate heatwave.  This forecast is longer than 48 hours, and accurate.  Don't you agree?

Gary

Hahaha, thats the biggest area of flash flooding I have ever saw! I wonder how many people really think its true?

dogg - Maybe that's why Al Gore bought a new yacht.  

My advise is to open each show with . . .

Good evening folks another week of wild and wacky weather is on it's way so fasten your belts and stay tuned.

Juba and adogg, are you referring to the green areas on the map in Utah and Colorado?  I clicked on juba's link and saw nothing unusual.  The green in Colorado and Utah are flash flood watches, with small areas of dark red flash flood warnings mixed in.  Perhaps the glitch has been fixed.

Gary, don't sweat the naysayers.  No one can nail every forecast precisely.  Forecasting the exact location where heavy convective rain events will occur is very, very tough.  You are far more accurate than your local competitors on average, and accuracy is what I look for in a weathercast.  That said, caution should be the word when predicting where the next heavy convective rain event will occur in a few days, because of the problem with nailing these things down.

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I agree, and the next rainfall forecast will make me more cautious.  But, if I feel confident in what we will get, then I won't hide it.  I think most of you know that I will always lay it out there. 

Gary

I agree with kcwxguy. It can't be easy being a meteorologist and knowing when you make a mistake that thousands of people will know about it. Good for the meteorologists for having the hutzpa to make their predictions anyway!

I think Mother Nature just felt like messing with you Gary. Shes just mad you can predict her every move...lol

Keep up the excellent work!!!!!!

Cant wait to see the new studio,

Alex

Gary, what is the soonest we will be able to estimate what kind of winter to expect this year as far as precipitation being above or below average?

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The earliest I can be confident in the winter forecast is around mid-November, and possibly a couple of weeks later.  Although, we will have our first idea by sometime in late October.

Gary