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I hate the maps used above.  They are too broad brushed.  For example, the middle of Missouri got a great deal of rain..but is that where the forecast was made for?

KMCI was above average for July.  Sans one day, the month would have ended half an inch below normal.   Carried one step further, for the summer through August 1st, the temp is at about 1 degree below average..but definitely within the realm of normal.

That equates to half a degree cooler during the day and half a degree cooler at night.

Half a degree.  I still have a hard time validating if that is significant enough to so far claim victory on a forecast.  Seems normal - or..average.

As far as the precip...regionally, it has been wetter.  That is a hit...though, again, minus one odd day, the summer has been drier than average at KMCI.  

But alas...it all counts, so yes, it has been wet!  Great kudos for counting the potential of July 2nd in the three month forecast!

Even if not one ore drop of rain falls during the month of August, this summer will go down wetter than normal..thanks to July 2nd.  I think the temps will end up about average for the summer.

I say much of this with a hint of sarcasm, but it is a bit tough to get excited about a forecast that only gave enough detail as to cooler and wetter.  It is sooo hard to validate that either way.  

I am ready for the new pattern..I am excited to see if I can spot this one again early as well!

Jeremy, great job on the forecast today..it was a bit tricky...

I put Paola's total rainfall in the last blog but I'll add it again here, .50 for Paola yesteray.  Have a great Sunday!
--deb

I was driving home from six falgs last night after midnight and there was Patchy fog every 500-1000 ft. But, in some places it felt like somebody put white blanket on my car, like Steven King's Movie; The Mist!

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Low lying areas and river valleys may see fog the next couple of mornings if the winds go light and temps drop to the dew point.  I saw a little fog this morning when driving in to work.

Jeremy

first of all, today is sunday, not saturday...i wish it was saturday though.

your half a degree analogy is flawed, scott.  if a temp averages 1 degree below average, its one degree.  also, i do believe that the realm of 'normal' is +/- .5 degree...1 degree actually can make a big difference.  in fact, that one degree could have been the difference between us drying up enough to heat up more during august and staying below average due to more saturated air.

since june 1st, 58% of the days have been below average in temperatures.  

pvt - the average temp is defined as the mean of the high and low temp. I am sure you already know that.   If you subtract a half degree from both, you get your one degree off mean or average.

'normal' is much different than 'average'  Normal I think has a greater variance than half a degree.  It is normal for temps in summer to be 93 degrees for example as a high, while the 'average' high temp may only be 89.

Average is much more objective as it is just the mean of the temps recorded.  Anyway..semantics for most I am sure.

I am not sure one degree would be enough to describe what you say.  There are so many more variables that would play into that including moisture and all the upper air dynamics.

As far as your 58%...sure...but you are not reflecting how much warmer the other 42% was...that is why the statistical mean is a better reflection of average...

LOL...nevermind...it was a point I probably should not have brought up.  

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Scott,

It would be normal for it to be 100 degrees today, but that would be much above average.

The bottom line is this summer will be near to below average.  A cooler summer, even if it is right around average.  In my opinion. 

Gary

Here is a great article that I found on normal and average...

I love section 7.

http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~doswell/Normals/normal.html

scott,

if your actual high and low temp are both half a degree below average, that still equates to a half degree below average, not 1.  sure, the total sum equates to 1, but you must divide it by two, or else its not an average, or mean...but im sure you already knew that ;)

if the average is hi 86 lo 70...your average temp is 78.

if your actual is 85.5 hi low 69.5...your average temp is 77.5, or -.5 compared to average.  

i agree that 'normal' is subjective in all aspects of life.  however, for example, when you look at SST anomalies for patterns in the PAC...the nws uses +/- .5* anomalies to indicate whether an el nino or la nina is taking place.  

once again, its subjective, but 1 degree differences between today and tomorrow wouldnt make a big difference, but a 1 degree difference over the span of a season, or a year, or a decade...etc can have huge implications.  

in my (not so, apparently) humble opinion...temperatures are the main driver for everything in the weather realm...be it humidity(dewpoints, anyone?), upper air dynamics(baroclinic zones, varying temps at different altitudes causing pressure gradients-i.e. wind)...of course, the amount of light is not dependent on temperature.  but thinking back to my not so distant chemistry classes, there are multitudes of equations with temperature as a main variable.  in fact, temperature is the most important variable in science-with the exception of MAYBE the force of gravity.  it affects density, mass, volume...so i have to respectfully disagree with you on that one.

my nerdishness is coming out so i will let the temp comment slide...

one last thing though scott, your comment about the 58% vs 42% being warmer irks me.  its like when someone says hey the royals have a winning record...and then the pessimist comes and says, well hey, in the games they lost, they lost badly.  in the end, when you have a winning record, who cares how much you lost by when your wins mathematically overshadow your losses.   when you are using climatology as the sample, its similar to baseball.  58% is good enough to get you into the playoffs,  it is far enough off the mean that it stands out.  this is why +/- 1 degree makes a big difference in weather...especially over the larger sample such as seasonal, or yearly weather.

Its Just down right FANTASTIC outside!

Stormdog - The pattern generally has repeated itself, with the majority of heavy rain events either north or northwest of Blue Springs, or west, southwest and southeast of Blue Springs.  Would it not be nice to have our area in the extended bullseye for once?  I think not, as I am of the opinion that there is some geological affect, or geographic placement of KC (on the edge of most development, so that it maneuvers west, north or south, OR is in the state of decay once it makes it this far.  Also, easterly winds bring dry air from Illinois, something that does not happen in Oklahoma - an east wind there is a moist wind.  So yes, this pattern has been pretty good, but like one other blogger mentioned, there have been long stretches of nothing.  With northwest flow aloft, I would expect more, but something tells me to expect NOTHING, NADA, DRY, UNEVENTFUL weather for the foreseeable future for Blue Springs.  That being said, now don't get too excited folks, wouldn't want to cause apoplexy - a total of .05 inches yesterday (now wait for the coup de gras) and last night a "generous" total of .02 inches in the rain-gauge.  Get out the row-boats everyone!!!  SNORE......SNORE.....SNORE.....

Later,
The Dog

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But Stormdog, how much rain have you had in June, July, and August combined? Just be patient, there is no geological boundary keeping the rain away from Blue Springs.

Gary

It is probably just fantasy, but look what the GFS is doing for the end of the week, Wow I have not seen a solution like that in a while, very un summer like.

Is it really August??? What a beautiful day today!!

Hope everyone is enjoying it.

JP

Ha – Pvt, you are right on my example…I was wrong.  Not sure why I was thinking .5 degrees as it relates to mean.  Oh well.

Let me take a quick stab at the nerdish side as well.  When I think normal, statistically, I am thinking of values generally within one standard deviation.  From an empirical standpoint, assuming a standard distribution, that would capture 9% of the values either side of the mean.  

I think normal can be quantified if chosen, but many choose to subjectively use the term in more of a qualitative method.  As you refer to the SST norms, from your Chem days, you will remember liquid retains heat better than air, thus the SST temps will deviate less, thus have a tighter gradient, thus the +/- .5 degrees.  Air temps would generally have a higher tolerance for “normal”.

I agree over long periods of time, 1 degree could be meaningful, but I think it is hard to quantify.  We already see the different perspectives on a similar topic of GW.

I fully agree with you on the importance of temperature.  No doubt, it makes all that we know as the weather work.  Wind, precipitation, everything.  My only thought is how finite can temperature changes be with little to no effect, both in the short and long term?  

I am not sure there is an easy answer.

We will disagree on your 58/42% analogy.  I contend that not only does the frequency matter, but so does the “how badly they lost”.  Percentages only describe frequency.  

If 4 out of 7 days, the temp was an average of 2 degrees below mean but the other three days, it was 10 degrees above mean, you would not be able to say that the week ended “below average”.  Sure, by percentages, it could be presented that way..but when looking at the actual numbers, it would be proven to be false.

So, for that, the baseball analogy does not work for me since the winning or losing margins are not accounted for.

Probably we agree on most of what we are saying with each other, but based on context it is a bit skewed.  My original context was that of average/normal and how it related to the summer forecast.  You brought up some very good points, and in their own context, very accurate.  

Dog - that was a hilarious entry!

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Scott,

Today's average high is 88.  I consider it a "normal" August 10th if the temperature is between 80 and 105.  But, 80 is below average and 105 is well above average.  During the winter when the average high is 36 degrees, I consider it a "normal" day if it is 20 degrees for a high, or even 55 for a high in January.  But those would still be way below, and above average respectively. 

Gary

All I can say is that it's mid August, my flowers are still alive, my grass is green, my AC shuts down for more that 2 minutes at a time and the sun is shining.  What more can I ask for?  
BTW, LOVE the new set.  Can't wait for some exciting weather so we can see how it all works!

Mary

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Mary,

Thanks for stopping by.  The weather was great today!  Things may get really odd by later this week if the ULL stops by the area.

Jeremy

La Cygne Recieved .50 inches of rain from yesterday's nice relaxing showers.

And it ended just in time to get in the Longview KC Missouri Foxtrotter Show. It was a glorious evening! And today was awesome too - went to Hillsdale and rode for several hours. The East breeze really helped keep me and my mare cool. Wish I was off tomorrow too, but gotta go to work to feed the critters. :)

I sure hope the weather pans out for next weekend - gotta club ride at Kill Creek park. I'll keep my fingers crossed!

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